opinions on pace please

[mrroyboy]

Do you guys think it's better to use the horse's actual fractions or use the fractions of the race itself and see what the horse did' moves etc?

[precisionk]

I am all for the moves the horse makes and how it compares to the race leaders fractions. I feel moves dictate the fractions, not the other way around.

[Ray2000]

I use the horse's individual fractional times, adjusted for DTV, Track Speed Rating, and racing wide thru 180° turn (-3/5 sec per turn).

I find that the sum of his Final Time + his last quarter fraction (Example 1:55-2 + 27-3 = 143.0 secs)is a good indicator of form. Compute this value for each entry, using the best looking effort of the last 3 pp lines.

Other cappers here I know, prefer using half times, 1st middle and last halves...

BTW this thread was one of the best ever here at PACE on fractional times.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=64718&

[MPRanger]

Do you guys think it's better to use the horse's actual fractions or use the fractions of the race itself and see what the horse did' moves etc?


Isn't that the same thing? Actual fractions adjusted for beaten lengths?

In sprints above 5f in races that I like, I use the horses time and take note of his position at the half and finish. All runners who can run within an acceptable number of lengths of a pace setter at both calls are pace contenders. Or better said, the runners who can't run within those parameters are not contenders to win. I have to know the horses actual time to determine this.

[rowboat]

you got 2 of the best answers you could get from anybody.the speed of the race will be determined by whats going.if somebody gets the lead and gets away the final pace is probably slow.i had posted a a way of trying to get a mile time depending on what part of the race they ran the best.ray had a great resonse i used to the 3-4 to the final time b.ut ray has his shit figured out.i do look for the last 3 races really prefer the horse has some excuse if i have to go 2 back.

i always look at the average qtr time and would like to see a horse have 2 qtrs 2-4 lengths above and 1 even or bettor.to me the best bet is a horse with the final fastest time or within 2 and closed on the outside into a real final last half eg 59 half horse is7th 8 behind and the 2nd half opens up and finishes 156.lets say this horse closed to third gained 5 lengths.

there is also something related to pace and that is the number of honest contenders.you might get a race with just and one reels of fast fracs.next week goes uo against afew head bangers and he wont have an easy time.

and there is one factor nobody talks about.class.at one time the had a computerized capping factors.tops were the highest avg earnings per start,most money earned.you are starting to see the clas horses starting to win.money earned last 2 years best win pct horses that do well at that track

you can do a visual look every night.horses with the fast finalor within .2 wina lot.now you have to look at the final time of the last race also because they might show a faster time.class tells a lot

and last but not least is the board.flats trots 70% of the winners will be 5-1 or less.here at yonkers if you do the track the winner has a good chance of having been a favorite in one of the last 3 races.also if not the favorite been 5-1 or less in one of the last 3.i think tonite every winner has been 5-1 or less in one of the last three.there is no one answer just a lot of solutions to figure out.pray to god this was a lucid post................

[rowboat]

meant to say if the horse got away slow final likely to be slower

[Capper Al]

I am all for the moves the horse makes and how it compares to the race leaders fractions. I feel moves dictate the fractions, not the other way around.

This is always a stumper for me. If a horse hangs in a brutal pace verse a horse making a move in a slow pace. How can we credit these extremes with a common value to evaluate?

[PhantomOnTour]

Y'all do know this thread is about harness racing, right?

See a few t-bred posters here...doubt pace capping is the same for both.

[Capper Al]

Y'all do know this thread is about harness racing, right?

See a few t-bred posters here...doubt pace capping is the same for both.

Didn't catch it. Of course, back in the day, the t-bred people said that it was the harness players that gave them the idea for pace in t-breds.

[mrroyboy]

You are right Ray. That thread is great Thanks

[precisionk]

This is always a stumper for me. If a horse hangs in a brutal pace verse a horse making a move in a slow pace. How can we credit these extremes with a common value to evaluate?

It's tough to put a common value on those, I do agree. Those type of cases where I would see a strong move on a slow or fast pace, I usually watch the race reply to judge it for myself. I don't think you can necessarily put a common value but rather judge on a case by case basis. Doesn't make it easy, that's for sure.

[camfella]

pace ,you should have an average pace designation for each track,adjusting for a variant is useful if this is your sole capping tool.
I would rather look for positive input from pace analysis unless it is a common negative ,looking for a trend toward good or to identify the limits of that horse. I like to tie it in with "true class" analysis. My thought being the better the handling of faster pace by a horse is a true indication of class ablity.