Some Chester Post Statistics

[Ray2000]

Apparently Harrahs let the stats keeper go... their web site only lists up to Aug 09 2011 (I'm joking :))

And USTA in their infinite wisdom has cleared the stats page.

If anyone's interested here are my numbers for the post positions 2010-2011


Post 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Starts 3335 3394 3369 3396 3364 3306 3047 2189
Win % 13% 13% 14% 20% 19% 12% 10% 7%
ROI % -38% -34% -37% -1% -4% -28% -43% -52%


(taken from Chester Web Page)
Starts 1181 1181 1181 1181 1181 1171 1092 818
Win 149 149 171 205 215 133 108 51
Place 160 172 192 177 193 129 92 66
Show 170 163 162 205 161 153 97 69


Post #4 must be strongly considered for Win wagers.

Let's see how PP4 does today. (no bets)
R2 Red S-5/2
R10 Nicoles Dreamboat-15/1
R11 Malosi N-6/1
R14 The Mohegan Pan-10/1

[rowboat]

EVERY STAT IS AFFECTED BY ANOTHER STAT.THE 1-16 IS A DISMAL FAILURE NO MATTER WHERE THE START IS.ALL THE YEARS OF BETTING YONKERS WAS THE BOARD NOT THE BIAS.THE BIAS IS THE RESULT OF THE QUALITY OF THE HORSE AND INSIDER BETTING.PLEASE NOT U GIVE ME THE BULLSHIT THAT PROS DONT BET THESE HORSES DOWN.WHO IS.2 DOLLAR BETTORS NEVER EVER.

NOW SAT NITE WAS THE FIRST DOWNLOAD FOR THE SWAMP BUT GOOD PURSES AND COMPETETIVE RACES.NEVER REALIZED THAT IT APPEARS THAT SEARS IS THERE EVRY SAT NITE.I WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT THE OTHER NITES FOR WHATS GOING ON.

I HAVE SEEN BRENNAN BET DOWN TO WHERE IMHO HE DIDNT DESERVE TO BE .60 TO THE DOLLAR.HOW CAN A SMALL BETTOR MAKE MONEY AT YONKERS.NOTHING EVER CHANGES UNLESS CASE COMES BACK

[LottaKash]

I HAVE SEEN BRENNAN BET DOWN TO WHERE IMHO HE DIDNT DESERVE TO BE .60 TO THE DOLLAR.HOW CAN A SMALL BETTOR MAKE MONEY AT YONKERS.NOTHING EVER CHANGES UNLESS CASE COMES BACK

Yonkers sucks....For me, to play there, it is a never ending and futile attempt to accomplish nothing, in the long run...I've been a happy player since abandoning my time there...

The very first track to get me hooked on Harness Racing was Yonkers, so, it is hard for me to say that Yonkers sucks, but imo that is the truth....Heck, I can do just as well as anyone there, but with all the cheating and drugging and such, it is such a grind, that reaps no long term reward for me... My records show this about my play there....I just break even year afte year....So why bother ?...

You know it's funny about loyalty, because I still continue to download every single Yonkers program everytime I do my PP downloads, and yet I don't even put a mark on them, yet I continue to do the daily ritual, and yet never or should I say rarely, play there anymore...

So many years ago, I was a "regular" there and anyone who knew me, could find me there on most any night of the week, for years....I miss that, but the racing today is a "bore" for me, while waiting for a spot to pop up....

My hat is off to anyone that can make a go of it there....For me tho, I just flat out do so much better at my favorite bigger tracks, than at the "Hilltop" oval....

Time marches on....So, good luck to anyone who is making kash there, I say...


BUT, MORE IMPORTANTLY !!!.....RAY, thanks for you usual good quality and very informative STATS....:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: ...PP-#4 hunh ?

best,

[Ray2000]

thanks, Johnny, for the kind words.
I agree the racing at Yonkers (and other 1/2 milers) sucks but overlays are where you find them.

Wonder what the bettors would think about this...?
A suggestion for changing the style of Harness Racing

A new Purse distribution

Winner...................35%
2nd......................20%
3rd......................10%
4th......................5%
Leader at the half.......30%

Hey Speed Ball, going to try for 65% tonight? :D

[pandy]

As I've said many times, easy way to get half mile racing back to a good product is to go back to the wooden conventional sulky, which would solve the problems.

Here is why half mile racing sucks:

1). Too many winning favorites.
2). Post position bias (outside posts rarely win)
3). Flow problems
4). Too many easy wire to wire winners
5). Impossible to use logical pace analysis (for instance, bet a closer when the pace projects to be fast)
6). Can't bet the best horse (too much emphasis on post and early speed)
7). Boring races (the exciting wide rush that used to occur at the three quarters is gone now because the leader opens up on the field with a blazing third quarter)

Here is how to solve all 7 of these problems: run the races in the conventional wooden sulky. This would slow the races and the drivers would not be able to just gun down the road insensibly like they do now. It would tighten up the pack, bring back the exciting three quarter moves, double the win percentage of posts 6, 7, 8, etc. This is such an easy and obvious solution.

My prediction: If they don't go back to the wood sulky, all regular racing on half mile tracks will CEASE TO EXIST within 10 to 15 years. Once that happens, the 5/8's tracks will also go down and then we'll have to wonder if the sport can survive with racing on two tracks, Balmoral and the Meadowlands.

The sad thing is, HALF MILE TRACK RACING is still the best IF you run the races in conventional sulkies because you are closer to the action and let's be real here, when done properly, people love half mile racing.

Since most of the tracks are half or five eighths, the sport is in big trouble.

One last thing, only two tracks in the country have been hitting over a million in handle, Balmoral and the Meadowlands. That is not because people love one mile tracks, it's because these are the only two tracks that offer non biased racing where horses can close and the driver can't just go to the top and bottom out the field. Balmoral also has the lowest percentage of winning favorites.

[melman]

Pandy--Just recently the USTA web site had as a poll question, would you be in favor of going back to the wood sulky. Do you know how that vote turned out??

Also I wonder who owns Maywood? And who owns Balmoral? They should work out a deal and close Maywood. So far this year Balmoral handle is up something like 40%.

The one half mile track I still follow is Monticello. The drivers there still seem to make quarter moves and compete. Even with that however there % of winning fav's is about 43%. With the 7 and 8 hole both being dismal numbers.

[precisionk]

One of the main reason I handicap and bet at Balmoral is because I feel races are much more wide open due to the ability of those horses with good closing speed can come flying down the stretch. Unlike on 1/2-5/8's tracks where if you are leading at the 3q by a length or two, you have a very strong chance of winning. Balmoral I love just because you are leading down at the 3Q, doesn't mean nothing because you still have that runway they call the stretch at Balmoral that lasts for ages.

I agree with Pandy that if they used the conventional sulky or some other method to allow post positions 6-10 more of a chance, the tracks and the sport would be better off. As it is now, it takes a horse in top form with great early speed to be able to compete from the far out posts. That horse has to get all the way over to the rail and STILL have enough gas down the stretch to be competitive. That is alot to ask from most horses.

[pandy]

Pandy--Just recently the USTA web site had as a poll question, would you be in favor of going back to the wood sulky. Do you know how that vote turned out??

Also I wonder who owns Maywood? And who owns Balmoral? They should work out a deal and close Maywood. So far this year Balmoral handle is up something like 40%.

The one half mile track I still follow is Monticello. The drivers there still seem to make quarter moves and compete. Even with that however there % of winning fav's is about 43%. With the 7 and 8 hole both being dismal numbers.

Over 70% were NOT in favor of returning to the wood sulky, but I expected that. The readership of the USTA website has a lot of owners/breeders and their selfishness and ego is always going to be first and foremost in their minds. If we went back to the bikes the final times would be 5 to 7 seconds slower depending on the track and breeders would hate that because their ego is inflated by the artificially faster times. Same with owners. If you have a horse that just paced a 1:49.4 mile at the Meadowlands that has to make you feel great but you run that same race in wood bikes and all of a sudden you have a 1:55 pacer, doesn't sound as good.

But the bottom line is, people in the industry need to put their egos and self interests aside and do what is best for the sport.

I hope I'm wrong, but I do predict that things are going to get a lot worse and half mile and five eighth track racing is going to be virtually completely shut down in the next 10 to 15 years. The product stinks.

[pandy]

One of the main reason I handicap and bet at Balmoral is because I feel races are much more wide open due to the ability of those horses with good closing speed can come flying down the stretch. Unlike on 1/2-5/8's tracks where if you are leading at the 3q by a length or two, you have a very strong chance of winning. Balmoral I love just because you are leading down at the 3Q, doesn't mean nothing because you still have that runway they call the stretch at Balmoral that lasts for ages.

I agree with Pandy that if they used the conventional sulky or some other method to allow post positions 6-10 more of a chance, the tracks and the sport would be better off. As it is now, it takes a horse in top form with great early speed to be able to compete from the far out posts. That horse has to get all the way over to the rail and STILL have enough gas down the stretch to be competitive. That is alot to ask from most horses.

You hit the nail on the head, the reason why Balmoral and Meadowlands have the handle, you still have a chance to cash your bet, which makes it more exciting. On half mile tracks if your horse is more than 3 lengths behind at the half you may as well start handicapping the next race, you're out of contention.

When half mile track racing was popular, it was 4 in and 4 out at the half and the field was tightly bunched, so even if your horse was third over and 6 to 7 lengths behind you still had a shot if you had a good horse and driver.

[Overcall]

Statistically, if all horses were equal, win percentage is inversely
proportional to post position. But all horses are not equal, so we get
deviations from the theoretical. The post four 'bump' in the
trend-line, is that, statistically, post four is the first horse
to come first over.

[pandy]

Statistically, if all horses were equal, win percentage is inversely
proportional to post position. But all horses are not equal, so we get
deviations from the theoretical. The post four 'bump' in the
trend-line, is that, statistically, post four is the first horse
to come first over.


I agree, at Chester, most races are won by either a leaver (pocket or pacesetter) or the horse that goes first over, so you're probably right, post 4 goes first over a lot.

[badcompany]

The Chester stats look typical of 5/8 tracks. Middle posts do best, followed by the inside, with the outside bringing up the rear.

Regarding Yonkers, I get the feeling most of you guys like to spread the money around. If so, half mile racing is not your thing. I've always been a cold number guy who is looking to catch the 20-40 ex and the 50-150 tri. Half mile suits me fine. I wouldn't touch Balmoral.

[rowboat]

WHILE I WAS ON ANOTHER LIST I ARGUED THAT TOO MANY OWNERS ERESTAYING ON THE RAILTHIS OWNER THAT I KNOWN FOR YEARS THE PREVIOUSHAD GONE TO A NEW TRAINER 35 A HORSE PER MONTH AND WAS USING THEM HARD.THEY FOUND A GUY FOR 2200 IF HE GOT ALL 12 HORSES,IN SO MANY WORDS THEY JUST WANTED THE HORSE TO COLLECT SOME PURSE MONEY.HE UNDERSTOOD

WITH YONKERS INFLATED PURSES A FEW WINS COUPLE OF LUCKY 2DS AND YOU ARE KNOKING BOOTS WITH TOP HORSES.THIS WILL STRIP THE HORSE OF SOME OF HIS CYCLE OF WINNING.LAST YEAR I COMPLAINED THAT NODY WAS COMING OUTSIDE EXCEPT 2 AT TH 3-4.WHAT CRAP IS.OF COURSE SOME DIM BULB BLAMED IT ON THE FIRST AND HALF

THEY MADE THE PASSING LANE TO STOP FAVORITES FROM CLAIMING THEY WERE BOXED IN.WELL AFTER THAT THEY HAD TO TAKE TEM TO THE TOP.A PIECE CASE DID WAS THAH YOU TAKE THE FRONT AS FAST ASYOU CAN ANF THOSE SHOPPING FOR A TUCK MUST FND A SPOT ON THE RAIL WHILE CASE WAS BACKING IT DOWN.HE TRIED FOR THE 3 QTR TO BE ALSO SLOW AND AFTER THE3-4 PICK IT UP AND ATTEMPT TO SPRINT.OBVIOUS A SUCCESS

NOW THIS YEAR THEY ARE COMING OUT AT THE HALF BUT I STILL WANT TO SEE CHANGES.THE TOP 2 CANT DRAW FOR THE FIRST FIVE PPS.NO CRYIMG ABOUT BRENNAN ON THE RAILNOW. THE RACING SECRETARY IS ADDING CONDITIONS BUT WE NEED TO HAVE ONES THAT ARE FOR HORSES THAT RACE HERE.ALSO IF THE WINNER HAS RACED 3 IN A ROW IN NY GETS A BONUS.

FXXX THEM IF THEY WANT A BOARDER WAR