3/8 Plays

[theguarantee]

AQU
3) :5: WS
pk-3 :5: / :2: , :9: / :1: , :4: , :5:

5) :5: W
6) :3: WS
9) :4: W
Late pk-4 very small play: :3: / :3: , :5: / :1: , :2: , :4: , :9: / :4:

GP
7) :2: WS
9) :1: WS

[theguarantee]

This race at Aqu just looking to take a shot against the favorite, the :5: seems a bit sneaky good and took some early money. Small play....didn't run a lick.

In the 5th, I think Blushing Martha is a big bet against. Ran a much higher Bris fig than previous efforts in last in defeat. On other hand, Get Er Up ran a lower fig but did it in a win. Past races of Get Er Up puts it right there with these others and while I think the 1 and 4 can win, should be the best price of the likely horses.

In the 6th I think people will overrate Cornelio jumping off the Rice mount. I can't worry about that because he's jumping aboard a Repole owned horse which just seems like a savvy business move. Firebay did race against weaker but broke ridiculously slow and put in a nice move. With a much better break, can handle these in my opinion and I have no issues whatsoever with Camacho.

In the 9th, Carrot Thief is your classic sucker horse but call me a sucker because I'm backing today. Hoping Desert Speed gets overbet after showing little in the debut. I know you're not supposed to back closing sprinters stretching out but if Mommy's Dearest and Private Councel run the same they have in prior routes and Desert Speed doesn't improve, Carrot Thief should be hitting the front around the 3/4's pole and while I'm not sure she really wants that extra ground, I don't see anyone in here I'd be worried about running her down.

Gulf 7th maybe Perfectly Crazy is just done and the drop/switch to dirt is a desperation move. Gets back to Lezcano though who made this ridiculously wild move two back on the turf. Not saying I want to see that type of move on dirt either, but if ridden aggressively today would be fine by me. I think has a significant class edge on these, has handled dirt before, and if the :11: doesn't make an easy lead should run that one down today in my opinion.

In the 9th I'm taking a bit of a stab with the lightly raced Zito horse. Bounced around between a few of these...EH Indy and Self Control clearly appear the two to beat but we'll see how much they have left and if the added ground is a positive. Pletcher's horse that comes by way of Bob Baffert seemingly is ML priced based on those two names alone. That left me looking at the 1,3,4,10. Believe in Indy could win especially with Dutrow but that layoff and return at 1 1/8th is too much for me to take. The 4 can't seem to stay on the track. The 10's only win came on the turf and 1/17 from the 10 post, at at decent but unincredible price is tough to take. Birdway is a well bred horse that has had a lot of issues, but returns here a month after a maiden score at 7. Breezed well since and will have to improve but holds a right to at what will be a square price