Tampa Bay Derby $350,000 II

[redshift1]

1 1/16 Mile Dirt. Purse $350,000. Tampa Bay Derby (Grade 2).

March 10th

Entries:

Prospective
Golden Ticket
Twin
Chief Energy
Tell All You Know
Cozzetti
Battle Hardened
Ravelo's Boy
Spring Hill Farm
Take Charge Indy
Fox Rules
Cajun Charlie


.

[Blenheim]

Past Performances: http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm

Go to Pletcher . . .

[Dahoss9698]

Seems like a lot of early speed signed up for this one. I like Golden Ticket from off the pace.

[turninforhome10]

Owners of Cajun Charlie supplemented for 7500.Poor post and big step up. Watch this horses last race at Delta and ask if they are crazy. He did it pretty easy Worked 7f from the gate at Delta and got a work over the track. This is no stellar field and if you discount the SF Davis and all the maiden winners that leaves Spring Hill Farm who could improve here but 60k for his breeding. Deal? Cozetti who Romans has been doing weel with these types Turf to Dirt and Take CHarge Indy who got cooked by EL Padrino last out. Tell All You Know is a throwout as the regression jumping from 5 to 7 fur even though class hike.
Would love to see a horse like Cajun Charlie beat the bluebloods and Herbert is crazy enough to see no reason why he can't. Feel good story.

[Pell Mell]

Owners of Cajun Charlie supplemented for 7500.Poor post and big step up. Watch this horses last race at Delta and ask if they are crazy. He did it pretty easy Worked 7f from the gate at Delta and got a work over the track. This is no stellar field and if you discount the SF Davis and all the maiden winners that leaves Spring Hill Farm who could improve here but 60k for his breeding. Deal? Cozetti who Romans has been doing weel with these types Turf to Dirt and Take CHarge Indy who got cooked by EL Padrino last out. Tell All You Know is a throwout as the regression jumping from 5 to 7 fur even though class hike.
Would love to see a horse like Cajun Charlie beat the bluebloods and Herbert is crazy enough to see no reason why he can't. Feel good story.

I don't get your meaning with Spring Hill Farm.. :confused:

[turninforhome10]

60 k for a Smart Strike from one of the best of Edward Evans female lines.Seems a bit under priced. Is that what you are talking about PM?

[Tread]

I don't get your meaning with Spring Hill Farm.. :confused:

And I really don't get his meaning on Take Charge Indy. He finished just behind El Padrino and the the two of them were like 12 lengths clear of everyone else in that race. He is easily the best on paper, but the big factor here is the incredibly quirky Tampa surface and who will like it and who will not.

[ten2oneormore]

Take CHarge Indy who got cooked by EL Padrino last out.

Think Borel moved Take Charge Indy way too early in that race.He isn't going to be the kind of price I like in the Tampa Bay derby but maybe he can dirty his form a little more and then be playable in the Illinois Derby .If he gets into the big one he could be a sleeper but connections said their main goal is the Belmont.

[turninforhome10]

And I really don't get his meaning on Take Charge Indy. He finished just behind El Padrino and the the two of them were like 12 lengths clear of everyone else in that race. He is easily the best on paper, but the big factor here is the incredibly quirky Tampa surface and who will like it and who will not.
Did you watch the race? Was there any reason for Take Charge Indy to be pushing so hard? It was a two horse race. El Padrino just waited and pounced. Look at the E2 for the race on a Bris Ultimate. 113?
Paper is easier to rate.

[sam i am]

call me crazy but I like the top 2 finishers in the SF Davis.
TB is a very tricky track, enough speed upfront and no world beater in here.

[Tread]

Did you watch the race? Was there any reason for Take Charge Indy to be pushing so hard? It was a two horse race. El Padrino just waited and pounced. Look at the E2 for the race on a Bris Ultimate. 113?
Paper is easier to rate.

I did watch the race, several times. He sits a length off the speed for 4f and then pushes the button and explodes opening up 12 lengths on the rest of the field by the end of the race, El Padrino's effort not withstanding. Not sure why you are saying that translates into a problem rating, he has not went straight to the lead in any of his races thus far and is putting distance between himself and the rest of the field at the end of this race.

El Padrino's effort in that race receive the highest beyer figure (or BRIS figure if you prefer) and lowest thorograph figure of any derby horse in any 2 or 3yr old race, by a fairly sizable margin. There is no shame in finishing 2 lengths behind that performance whatsoever.

[turninforhome10]

I did watch the race, several times. He sits a length off the speed for 4f and then pushes the button and explodes opening up 12 lengths on the rest of the field by the end of the race, El Padrino's effort not withstanding. Not sure why you are saying that translates into a problem rating, he has not went straight to the lead in any of his races thus far and is putting distance between himself and the rest of the field at the end of this race.

El Padrino's effort in that race receive the highest beyer figure (or BRIS figure if you prefer) and lowest thorograph figure of any derby horse in any 2 or 3yr old race, by a fairly sizable margin. There is no shame in finishing 2 lengths behind that performance whatsoever.

He has been in contention at the half in all his races, how many wins? Last race was big chance to put money in the bank. His seasoning was much greater than El Padrino. I just don't see a horse that has the desire to win. You should bet him if like him. Mine is not to dissuade anyone from betting your thoughts. I just think the horse has had the chance and now the owners see the writing on the wall and are running out of options to get bank. How many ARL- WASH types have won the Derby?

[Dahoss9698]

He has been in contention at the half in all his races, how many wins? Last race was big chance to put money in the bank. His seasoning was much greater than El Padrino. I just don't see a horse that has the desire to win. You should bet him if like him. Mine is not to dissuade anyone from betting your thoughts. I just think the horse has had the chance and now the owners see the writing on the wall and are running out of options to get bank. How many ARL- WASH types have won the Derby?

Street Sense won the Derby and was 3rd in the Arl-Wsh Futurity.

I don't particularly like Take Charge Indy in this race, but I'm a bit confused by some of your takes here. How was his seasoning much greater than El Padrino last time? You needed graded earnings to get into the Derby, so not winning that allowance race last time isn't a huge deal.

[turninforhome10]

Street Sense won the Derby and was 3rd in the Arl-Wsh Futurity.

I don't particularly like Take Charge Indy in this race, but I'm a bit confused by some of your takes here. How was his seasoning much greater than El Padrino last time? You needed graded earnings to get into the Derby, so not winning that allowance race last time isn't a huge deal.

El Padrino was fresh off the bench as well as Take Charge Indy when they met.
EP had one start in graded company vs 3 for TCI. TCI had more seasoning against graded types than EP. If you take it as the idea that TCI was in more of prep mode than EP than my point is nil. If you take it as I do that the horse peaked last year and is just another 3yo this year than his last effort sets him up to bounce here.Winning that allowance would have signaled to me that he was no fluke. That being said I thought Borel tried to run off and hide from EP in the last and burned the horse up.
Basically saying that TCI is just another 3yo that was a good 2yo and his classmates are catching up to him. He has to hit the board on SAT to keep moving forward which is the same boat a lot of these horses are in.

No ARL-WASH winner has ever won the Derby, but you are correct with Street Sense and TCI is taking the same path. Just my opinion that TCI is a nice horse and I loved his momma but I see him winning a N1x before a stakes. Hope that clears up my statements.

[turninforhome10]

I stand corrected on the ARL WASH Futurity. No horse has won the AWF and gone on to win the Derby, but when ran as the Washington Park Futurity at Washington Park Venetian Way won the Derby in 1959.

[Tread]

I don't think anyone is saying he will win the KY Derby, but the fact that he has not won races yet means little when you look at who has finished ahead of him in those races to date. El Padrino, Hansen, Union Rags, Creative Cause, Dullahan. There isn't anything even remotely close to those animals in this race.

There isn't a 3yr old in america that would have beaten El Padrino that day, so I'm not sure why anyone would count that as a negative. Look at how he finished in relation to the rest of the field. Coming out and running a lifetime best 1st time out as a 3yr old in a route is a very positive sign for the long-term outlook, I want a horse that is getting better at 3yr, not who did all his running at 2yr.

Again, all this said, the Tampa surface is a complete wild card.

[Wiley]

I stand corrected on the ARL WASH Futurity. No horse has won the AWF and gone on to win the Derby, but when ran as the Washington Park Futurity at Washington Park Venetian Way won the Derby in 1959.
I think Spend a Buck won the Arlington Wash Futurity in '84.

[turninforhome10]

I think Spend a Buck won the Arlington Wash Futurity in '84.
I again stand corrected. Should purchase the Racing Almanac as WIki can be incomplete.

[turninforhome10]

I don't think anyone is saying he will win the KY Derby, but the fact that he has not won races yet means little when you look at who has finished ahead of him in those races to date. El Padrino, Hansen, Union Rags, Creative Cause, Dullahan. There isn't anything even remotely close to those animals in this race.

There isn't a 3yr old in america that would have beaten El Padrino that day, so I'm not sure why anyone would count that as a negative. Look at how he finished in relation to the rest of the field. Coming out and running a lifetime best 1st time out as a 3yr old in a route is a very positive sign for the long-term outlook, I want a horse that is getting better at 3yr, not who did all his running at 2yr.

Again, all this said, the Tampa surface is a complete wild card.

Shared Property beat TCI in the ARL Wash and was drubbed in the Risen Star as Mark Valenski gave EP all he could handle coming off a 6fur AL win. What was in the rest of the field at GP in that Al on Jan 29th?

[Tread]

Shared Property beat TCI in the ARL Wash and was drubbed in the Risen Star as Mark Valenski gave EP all he could handle coming off a 6fur AL win. What was in the rest of the field at GP in that Al on Jan 29th?

If you are going to drag results over synthetic into the discussion, there is no point in continuing it, because it is beyond irrelevant. Not to mention bringing up a race that happened 9 months ago. As I said above, good 3 year olds are making major improvements this time of year. Shared Account has yet to run back to his 2yr old form yet, whereas horses like TCI and El Padrino have clearly moved forward off their 2yr old form.

Also, using Mark Valenski to discount the performance of either El Padrino or TCI is ridiculous. He had won 2 sprint races and his connections thought he might be even better stretching out, which he was, finishing right there with a very talented horse who is in just about every reasonable analysts' top 3 derby horses. Using the argument that because he had won sprint races means he is not talented or not to be respected going 8.5f makes absolutely no sense when he had never tried it. He clearly has plenty of route ability at that distance despite the fact that he also won sprint races (which according to you is a negative). Again, look at where those 2 finished in relation to the rest of the field in the Risen Star.

Not sure of the other figures, but Mark Valeski was tied for second fastest Thorograph figure overall going into that race, and he had just run his last out whereas the other horse he was tied with (Mr Bowling) ran his 3 races back as a 2yr old.

The point being, it doesn't matter which field we are talking about, the alw race or the risen star, the remainders of those fields seem to bear a similar resemblance to what is in this TB Derby field. We'll see what the Pletcher horse ends up looking like, but overall there does not seem to be anything to fear in any of those fields, outside of those we just mentioned.

Which of course means that some local horse who loves the track will romp at 40-1.

[turninforhome10]

If you are going to drag results over synthetic into the discussion, there is no point in continuing it, because it is beyond irrelevant. Not to mention bringing up a race that happened 9 months ago. As I said above, good 3 year olds are making major improvements this time of year. Shared Account has yet to run back to his 2yr old form yet, whereas horses like TCI and El Padrino have clearly moved forward off their 2yr old form.

Also, using Mark Valenski to discount the performance of either El Padrino or TCI is ridiculous. He had won 2 sprint races and his connections thought he might be even better stretching out, which he was, finishing right there with a very talented horse who is in just about every reasonable analysts' top 3 derby horses. Using the argument that because he had won sprint races means he is not talented or not to be respected going 8.5f makes absolutely no sense when he had never tried it. He clearly has plenty of route ability at that distance despite the fact that he also won sprint races (which according to you is a negative). Again, look at where those 2 finished in relation to the rest of the field in the Risen Star.

Not sure of the other figures, but Mark Valeski was tied for second fastest Thorograph figure overall going into that race, and he had just run his last out whereas the other horse he was tied with (Mr Bowling) ran his 3 races back as a 2yr old.

The point being, it doesn't matter which field we are talking about, the alw race or the risen star, the remainders of those fields seem to bear a similar resemblance to what is in this TB Derby field. We'll see what the Pletcher horse ends up looking like, but overall there does not seem to be anything to fear in any of those fields, outside of those we just mentioned.

Which of course means that some local horse who loves the track will romp at 40-1.
Not using Mark to discount anybody. Read my thread and you will see I had nothing but good things to say. Mark validated EP IMHO. I said before the Risen Star he was Jones Derby horse. With TCI I feel he was helped by the surface at GP and his number will be his lifetime best. Has any of the horses this year run a lifetime best first out and improved off of it?

[Tread]

Not using Mark to discount anybody. Read my thread and you will see I had nothing but good things to say. Mark validated EP IMHO. I said before the Risen Star he was Jones Derby horse. With TCI I feel he was helped by the surface at GP and his number will be his lifetime best. Has any of the horses this year run a lifetime best first out and improved off of it?

A difficult question to answer because many Derby contenders have only been out once so far this year, and some not at all yet. As with any horse, it would all depend on how great the jump was both in relevant terms of the his last race and absolute terms as to how fast it was, factored in with how much rest the horse has had since the effort. Given that TCI has had 3 extra weeks on top of El Padrino since their large effort (and 6 overall), I'm not worried about a huge bounce here for that reason. And as with El Padrino in the Risen Star, a minor bounce here still wins this race against this field.

[Dahoss9698]

Rumor has it Take Charge Indy might scratch.

[Striker]

Rumor has it Take Charge Indy might scratch.
Confirmed by DRF. They are going to go in the Florida Derby.

[Valuist]

I again stand corrected. Should purchase the Racing Almanac as WIki can be incomplete.

Not only did Spend a Buck win the race but future Belmont winners Bet Twice and Hansel also won the race. The race hasn't produced much in recent years but had a very strong run from 1984 to 1990

[Pell Mell]

60 k for a Smart Strike from one of the best of Edward Evans female lines.Seems a bit under priced. Is that what you are talking about PM?

One can't just can't make assumptions without knowing all the facts. For instance; just this week a client of mine was prepared to go 150 or more for a Big Brown colt at the Barretts sale. He thought it might go a little cheap because it was a little slow under tack but the horse failed the vet. Nothing serious but would have needed 3-4 months R&R which he wasn't prepared to do. The wait would have put them way back and would have to play catch up. Someone did bid 120 but didn't meet the reserve.

In the case of SHF, he was kind of a late foal and wasn't sold til Nov. after most of the 2 yr old races were already run. He's in the process of playing catch up now. A lot of buyers of 2 yr olds want something they can shoot with in the big 2 yr old races so once that's not possible there's not too many interested or that have many $$$ left.

Just a thought....

[turninforhome10]

One can't just can't make assumptions without knowing all the facts. For instance; just this week a client of mine was prepared to go 150 or more for a Big Brown colt at the Barretts sale. He thought it might go a little cheap because it was a little slow under tack but the horse failed the vet. Nothing serious but would have needed 3-4 months R&R which he wasn't prepared to do. The wait would have put them way back and would have to play catch up. Someone did bid 120 but didn't meet the reserve.

In the case of SHF, he was kind of a late foal and wasn't sold til Nov. after most of the 2 yr old races were already run. He's in the process of playing catch up now. A lot of buyers of 2 yr olds want something they can shoot with in the big 2 yr old races so once that's not possible there's not too many interested or that have many $$$ left.

Just a thought....
Big Brown -Ivanawinalot- RNA 120 from Eddie Woods worked 10 3/5 moved nice. What was the problem.

[Blenheim]

Should be a good one.

Too bad Take Charge Indy isn't goin' here as it would have proved interesting to see what he had for em'. As it goes, I think the Pletcher horse looks tough but he ships in, gets an outside post, hasn't gone two turns, runs at a new distance on a new surface with a new jock. Askin' a bit much but that doesn't seem to matter when you've got the Derby Fever! :cool:

I think sam i am has it right with the horses that ran first and second in the Sam Davis. They've had a run on the surface, the Casse horse out of post position eleven and the Kenneally horse out of post position three. I think the Casse horse turns the tables in this one, with the Kenneally horse running second and the Pletcher horse runnin' third.

:1: :7: :9:

Best of racin' luck.

Nothin' like the Derby Trail. Lookin' forward to the Tampa Bay Derby!

[Pell Mell]

Big Brown -Ivanawinalot- RNA 120 from Eddie Woods worked 10 3/5 moved nice. What was the problem.

Some sort of suspensory problem...also something about bone remodeling..that was all the info I got..

[Kirbyjrt]

but the big factor here is the incredibly quirky Tampa surface and who will like it and who will not.

You said it. Totally agree with you. This is why I would not throw out "Tell All You Know" so quickly. Yes, the distance is certainly a concern, but like you said, it's Tampa.

[Capper Al]

:10: :5: :9: :7: :1: :12:

The 5 and 7 look like good long shot plays while the 10 and 9 are likely to be at or near the wire. For wagering, if I get over 10/1 on either the 5 or 7, I'll have a play:

(if both 5 & 7 get odds. Half if only one gets odds.)

Exacta: (10-5-9-7)/(5-7) = 6 units
Win: 5-7 = 12 units

Predicting #10 to be the favorite. The second favorite should likely be #9.

[Dahoss9698]

:10: :5: :9: :7: :1: :12:

The 5 and 7 look like good long shot plays while the 10 and 9 are likely to be at or near the wire. For wagering, if I get over 10/1 on either the 5 or 7, I'll have a play:

(if both 5 & 7 get odds. Half if only one gets odds.)

Exacta: (10-5-9-7)/(5-7) = 6 units
Win: 5-7 = 12 units

Predicting #10 to be the favorite. The second favorite should likely be #9.

Take Charge Indy was scratched yesterday.

[Ocala Mike]

Exacta box :6: :7: :9: :12:

Cozzetti and the bottom are the sleepers.


Ocala Mike

[Capper Al]

:5: :9: :12: :7: :1: :8:

Still looking for 10/1 odds on 5 or 7 to play.

Exacta: (5-9-12-7)/(5-7)
Win: 5-7

The 12 rates and I might get inspired with odds. #1 has class but is ranked 5th in my pace rating.

[Some_One]

12-2-7 here

[Tom]

Easy race to handicap - class and speed don't figure in.

I'll take the old stand by method from years of playing bottom barrel claimers at FL - who's turn is it today?

:8: Ravelos Boy $20 WP

Over/under on the Beyer for the race? 83?

[fast4522]

I will take a stab at this race with a trifecta:

:1: :7: :12: With ALL Wiith :1: :7: :12:

[michiken]

:1::7::8: Box Per and Tri

10 cent super

All/:1::7::8:/:1::7::8:/:1::7::8:

I like Tom's pick on the 8.

Hit a homerun for us Tommy!

[PhantomOnTour]

:7: :5: :1: :8:

Usually wrong about Leparoux, but i think he repeats on Battle Hardened.

:5: -likes TAM and maybe he falls into a dream trip if jock rates him behind the :9: & :12: ...nice effort last out, but may not want this distance.

:1: - a must use...always been a fan of the Casse/Contreras combo

:8: - was coming on late in the S Davis...needs others to come back to him but can get a slice at odds.

Always worry about and respect the Pletcher :9: ...he'd be in the Swale if Pletcher didn't think he could get this two turn distance....guess he'll make the ticket somewhere.

[Kirbyjrt]

$0.10 Super Cost = $9.60

All/:1: :9: :12: /:1: :9: :12: /:1: :9: :12:

:1: :9: :12: /all/:1: :9: :12: /:1: :9: :12:

[CincyHorseplayer]

Going to take a shot with the 2.Too good a price to pass up in what looks to me as a wide open race.Small win bet on the 12 also.And boxes with the 1 and 9 with both and each other.

[Tom]

What's the difference between the Tampa Bay Derby and a maiden race?
About 10 days! :rolleyes:

[Capper Al]

Looks like class won. I paid for the oats.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Looks like class won. I paid for the oats.

Looked like a good old fashioned Extreme Pace Carpetbagger exacta to me Al.Textbook.

[Dahoss9698]

One can't just can't make assumptions without knowing all the facts.

True, but in this case the assumption was correct. He didn't vet out in the dispersal sale, which explains the purchase price and is now off the Derby Trail with a knee fracture according to a tweet by Jay Privman.

[Capper Al]

Looked like a good old fashioned Extreme Pace Carpetbagger exacta to me Al.Textbook.

I missed it.