Picks for Monday Funday, Mar 5th

[Ray2000]

Betting Win if odds > 3/1 and Key Box Exactas

Dover R14...........7 w/2,1,4 ...Segundo Hanover-6/1
Ruled the 25k claimers in Jan gets a different kind of 'Miller' today (Andy)

Meadows R14.........5 w/3,8,4 ...Almost Lucky-6/1
Double Qual, (one at Yr one at NFLD) then 1st start w lasix and spit the bit.
Small bet big surprise?

Pompano R5..........5 w/8,7 ...Miss Sparta-10/1
The Opens are way too much for her, but did put up a 1:52-2 mark this year before the claim.

Woodbine R8.........9 w/4,7,5 ...Grand Master-8/1
Last year earned $64 grand with no wins? Won at Flammy in last..
might like going to the winners circle. JJ a big plus.

Yonkers R6..........1 on top 6,8,7,2 ...Grab A Crab-6/1
6 of these raced against each other last week, 235678 (6 won it)
The Crab beat a lower class but that 28- FQT was impressive and maybe good enough with rail?

Little M Pic 3s

R1....237...Bay Street-5/2..Real Navigator3/1--Michael C Hanover-8/1
R2....24....Pembroke Boogie-3/1--Classy Ivory 6/1
R3....23....Kyrah Can-5/2--Torrid Pace-7/2

R8....473...All Natural-5/2--You Raise Me Up3/1--Dixie Allstar-4/1
R9....215...Space Chalet-4/1--Sun Moon Lake3/1--Eastern Photo-4/1
R10....5....Are You Nuts-3/1

Good Luck Everybody

[melman]

Ah Ray your right up my alley with a couple of "pic" bets at Monticello. :) As to your R10 pick at Monticello, no you are not nuts. :lol: A little crazy maybe but not nuts.

On the serious side I think the pic3/4/5 are very good bets. Even more so for harness bettor's. They can turn a series of low priced horses into a nice score. If your just a win bettor it can be mighty tough just waiting for a bet. If you demand at least 3-1 on a win bet that can be a long time. And I prefer 4-1. :)

[Ray2000]

The pic3 is an interesting wager, and constructing it brings up a lot of theories and possibilities.

The analysis by Ellis in this paper:

http://www.econ.washington.edu/user/ellis/econ482/horse1105.pdf

makes 3 very good starting points.

1. Do not use more than 1 leg with the likely favorite on the ticket.

2. Do not 'buy' insurance by throwing in the Morning Line pick 1, stick to your picks.

3. Almost always a better bet than the parlay.

I personally like trying to find 2 false favorites in a 3 race sequence (especially a horse with fast times who misbehaves).

But I'm still not certain if it's best to single one strong favorite or single elsewhere?

Anyone have any suggestions on how they play it?



Well here we go....8 minutes to post...

[precisionk]

How I tend to play is trying to have a few keys, to keep the dollar to a minimum. The more keys I have, the more I allow myself to add in "more" horses whom I think have a shot at an upset in a race. I tend to narrow my picks down to 2-3 strong contenders and stick with them, however, if I like more horses in a particular race, for me to be able to add them, I need to make sure I have a few keys in other races.

[melman]

Ray I hope Pandy is around and has some time to post on this pic topic. He has written quite a bit on the subject. I just forget where to find it. :)

[Ray2000]

mel ...I have it

Pandy

If I may ...

one year ago, good info...

http://www.harnesslink.com/harnesscharts.Published%20Features/

go down to Mar 5th 2011

[melman]

Your quick on the draw Ray. I like Pandy's thinking on the subject. Esp with the pic3 being a different animal. In that you go for multiple hits with a "main" ticket then of much smaller tickets. Would have been good on your pic3 play on first three at MR today. Winning ticket 2-2-2 good for $34.50. You had it COLD.

[Ray2000]

PK....you're right, keeping the ticket count to a minimum is as important as picking winners.


________

mel, funny but that hit goes against point #1 in Ellis' paper. That racing for you..
The other aspect is the psychological one. ...having 3 winning picks in a row and collecting nothing!
that'll throw you off your game.....

[Ray2000]

Skunked...no hits so,

Just for Fun....

Jan 2010 - May 2011 playing Robot Picks in the Pic3 pools, 8860 tickets

Play top 3 picks abc/abc/abc $54 each
cost 478,440 returns 391,210..... -18% roi
2187 hits

Play top 2 picks ab/ab/ab $16 each
cost 141,760 returns 128,138..... -10% roi
1020 hits

Play top pick a/a/a $2 each
cost 17,720 returns 17,072......... -4% roi.........yea for rebates (+1%) :jump:
208 hits


Of course, actually buying the tickets would change the >$1000 payoffs :p

[melman]

Ray how about this (if it will not cause the Robot to overheat). :)

a/ab/a ab/a/ab a/a/ab

I have the winner for MEA R14 today no problem it's the 2 what ya have for a top three in R15? I have a couple of long ones in that race what does the Robot think? Tks for your stats as always.

[Ray2000]

mel

As you may have guessed, I've been testing out "Robot2", the main differences being Robo2 uses no more than 4 pp lines, vs 8 in Robo1 and is more ROI specific for post positions and Driver ratings, not win percentages. I've noticed that when the 2 bots agree on pick 1 then that's a good Race to double up the bet.

As for Meadows R14 ...both bots going for #6 Beach Boy Tiger on top 328.

Kinda busy today I'll see what I can do on those double single Pick 3 ROIs. The damn trick is parsing out results like 5,1,7/5/1,6 pays $12.60 because of scratches inserting favorites. :mad:

GL


oops :blush: you said R15, that's

Robo1 2871

Robo2 9827

[Ray2000]

R15 127----..boo..hiss...chalk

btw, mel

If the season ended today, your new Broad Street Bullies would be up against the Pens.
better have a talk with them.......you don't want that ..:)


Yonkers R6...str tri... 243 might pay better than the $50 I expect...?