Derby Future Wager Pool 2

[Blenheim]

Caught El Padrino at 16/1 . . . thought it was a fun bet! :cool: :lol:

Interesting everyone thinks Union Rags may be the one to beat. I wonder . . . if they had known "Dixie Union has yet to sire a major winner beyond 9f from about 750 foals" would they have made the same bet.

Lookin' forward to the Big Dance.

[Pell Mell]

Caught El Padrino at 16/1 . . . thought it was a fun bet! :cool: :lol:

Interesting everyone thinks Union Rags may be the one to beat. I wonder . . . if they had known "Dixie Union has yet to sire a major winner beyond 9f from about 750 foals" would they have made the same bet.

Lookin' forward to the Big Dance.

Would be interesting to know how many ever tried 10f...

[Blenheim]

Good question and no, I don't have the answer. However, let me provide the full quote and maybe that will help.

However, Dixie Union has yet to sire a major winner beyond 9f from about 750 foals. Since 2000, the percentage of main track races longer than 9f is just under 6%, so there has been ample opportunity. In fact, Dixie Union has sired only three major SWs that have won at a distance as far as 9f on the main track and none in a G1. This is true despite his having sired many SWs from mares by top class stamina-oriented sires like A.P. Indy, Deputy Minister, Machiavellian, Smart Strike, Storm Bird and Theatrical. I don't think 10f is a slam dunk for Union Rags, but a lot will depend on the composition of the Derby field. Class and trip can sometimes overcome other deficiencies. (SteveR)

That data set has some precedent. I remembered what that author had to say last year in his 2011 Kentucky Derby Preview. An excerpt regarding the Derby favorite Dialed In:

Dialed In is the lightly-raced probable Derby favorite with three wins within his division and a narrow closing loss against older allowance horses. He comes from off the pace and it shows in his strong pace parameter numbers where he is among the top five in every category on dirt. His PFs are right there with the best of the three-year-olds and he has a reasonable chance to last a mile and a quarter. The one caveat is that daughters of his broodmare sire, Storm Cat, have never produced a major winner on dirt beyond 9 furlongs in a major stakes race despite Storm Cat's long and exceptionally successful stud career. Were he to win, Dialed In would be the first.

I'm no pedigree expert but the fourth sentence is kinda the same but different, but I think represents the same idea. No doubt different horses, different sires and different year, trainer etc. etc., but Dialed In didn't do particularly well in the Kentucky Derby. Don't know if the daughters of Storm Cat have produced a major winner on dirt beyond 9 furlongs since that time.

I think the salient factor in this whole analysis is the Bold Ruler sire line and A.P Indy. When I took at look at the pedigree of El Padrino, I saw A.P. Indy over Giants Causeway, probably was there the whole time, I just never saw it - never paid attention to it. It really hit home yesterday in the winner of the G1 Las Virgenes Stakes, Eden Moon: Malibu Moon (A.P. Indy) - Eden's Causeway (Giants Causeway). If that wasn't enough, in the Santa Anita Handicap there he was again - Full Mandate (A.P. Indy). I see it now and won't forget it. As it goes for me bein' kinda slow at this . . . I consider it a very fine pedigree lesson and important learning:ThmbUp:.

With respect to El Padrino, I was watchin' his odds most of the day and he started out at 14/1 and I knew I was gonna bet him then. As the day progressed his odds got higher and ended at 16/1 - couldn't believe it and I thought it was as good a bet as any of the Derby contenders.

Of course I am prepared and know that anything and most everything can happen between now and the Big Dance, but I'm hopin' for the best and havin' a bet on The Godfather, a Pletcher horse, only makes the Derby Trail that much more fun and exciting :lol:. I figure if ya' toss Union Rags and Secret Circle, that leaves the El Padrino at the top. And now with the good fine performance and high PF by Hansen in the Gotham, Hansen is right there. Hopefully everyone will bet the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Champion. :cool:

Nothin' like the Derby Trail.

[Beachbabe]

Looks like El Padrino will finish the day somewhere around 10-1

[Dahoss9698]

I like El Padrino a lot, but I would need at least 30-1 to bet him right now. Too far away from the race and too much could happen.

[Spalding No!]

I like El Padrino a lot, but I would need at least 30-1 to bet him right now. Too far away from the race and too much could happen.
Good strategy. I remember several years ago betting Diligence in the future book at around 10-1 while he was in the midst of winning 3 in a row at Gulfstream Park by open lengths. Thought it was a good move. But he tanked in the Blue Grass and went off at 20-1 in the Kentucky Derby, finishing 15th or so.