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cj
03-02-2012, 04:32 PM
Disclaimer, he is a friend.

He has chosen winners on top paying $27.80, $12.20, and $26.60 through 8 races. You are not going to find that from other public handicappers very often.

bigmack
03-02-2012, 04:52 PM
Disclaimer, he is a friend.

He has chosen winners on top paying $27.80, $12.20, and $26.60 through 8 races. You are not going to find that from other public handicappers very often.
Clearly, at those prices, few are paying attention to his picks.

Where's the love?

Grits
03-02-2012, 04:55 PM
He's had a very good day. Love is of no matter when giving out $20+ horses.

lamboguy
03-02-2012, 04:57 PM
real nice, keep it going

classhandicapper
03-02-2012, 05:05 PM
He's had a lot of terrific days this meet, but this was an especially good one.

Robert Fischer
03-02-2012, 05:08 PM
he's heating up

lamboguy
03-02-2012, 05:25 PM
he's heating up
that's a tremendous attitude!

Rutgers
03-02-2012, 06:25 PM
Andy Serling will be having a live web chat tonight at 9 ET at NYRA.com.

(Well, I think it’s 9, the web page for the chat has the time in 3 different forms - 9 EDT, 9 EST and 8 ET. I don’t know if it is a case of somebody not paying attention to simple but important details or somebody not knowing the difference between standard time and daylight saving time…either way it reflects poorly on the organization.)

Here's the link to the chat:

http://www.nyra.com/livechat/index.shtml

Canarsie
03-02-2012, 07:30 PM
There is not a better public handicapper in this country imo. Not only does he pick them there is detailed reasoning and analogy for each race he handicaps.

I try to never miss Talking Horses and today I received a tweet about a NYRA audio feed which is a tremendous asset. I can leave it on in the background.

Lets not forget Maggie either she's a great asset to Andy and does her job extremely well.

PaceAdvantage
03-02-2012, 07:41 PM
This ain't Charles Town or Mountaineer... do you really think they wouldn't have paid more had he NOT picked them?

Clearly, at those prices, few are paying attention to his picks.

Where's the love?

Ocala Mike
03-02-2012, 10:51 PM
No public selector can hold a candle to him. He gave out a $41 horse a couple of Saturdays ago that I got well on. I "follow" him on Twitter.


Ocala Mike

Striker
03-02-2012, 11:22 PM
Andy gave great insight on HRTV this morning for the Bold Brat Stakes on the #3 Dontbeshy I'll Buy and why he was against Maple Forest. Great call on that one plus the other 2. The announcers on HRTV were trying to talk to him about the great card at AQU on Saturday and he said wait a minute ,it is even a better card today. Joanne Jones of HRTV said tell us why. He did and there you have it. Great day Andy!

HuggingTheRail
03-03-2012, 01:52 AM
Very nice day for Andy :ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

thaskalos
03-03-2012, 02:07 AM
Serling's thoughtful analysis of the race is more valuable than the picks themselves.

A first-rate handicapper all the way!

PhantomOnTour
03-03-2012, 03:27 AM
Isn't Serling the walking living example of why players should follow one circuit? Look at the results of his work.
The intimate knowledge of the NY trainers, horses and jockeys can only be gained through following the circuit yearround, like Andy does...every race, every day.
I am a dedicated NY player and spend as much time as i can getting to know as much as i can about racing there (Aqu, Bel, Sar).
In my opinion it's the best way to go...pick a circuit and concentrate on it.
At the very least, you will learn a lot about how trainers operate.

Nice job today Andy

bigmack
03-03-2012, 05:03 AM
This ain't Charles Town or Mountaineer... do you really think they wouldn't have paid more had he NOT picked them?
Valid pernt. I sit corrected.

PICSIX
03-03-2012, 06:28 AM
Clearly, at those prices, few are paying attention to his picks.

Where's the love?

Real handicappers don't use other cappers' selections :lol: :lol: :lol:

Canarsie
03-03-2012, 07:29 AM
Serling's thoughtful analysis of the race is more valuable than the picks themselves.

A first-rate handicapper all the way!

Agree 100% and when he says " I like so and so but not at that price, not for me" its one of the greatest educational lessons one can get to stay in the black.

I don't play the P4 regularly but his comment yesterday has stuck in my brain with other great stuff I try to retain.

Strong opinions get you in trouble...especially in Pick-4s. The idea is to survive races.

Here's the link for all archived chats.

http://www.nyra.com/livechat/index.shtml

the little guy
03-03-2012, 09:20 AM
You guys are too kind.

Thank you.

098poi
03-03-2012, 10:47 AM
I've always been impressed with his analysis of the game. Aside from this forum the only other place I go to hear him is on At the Races and Beyond. (which somehow isn't blocked at work, yet!) He's usually on on Tuesdays. The thing that I am most impressed with is not his pick's yesterday but the fact that no one crawled up from the mire at the mention of his name to draw him (Andy) and others in to some juvenile back and forth about how evil he is. It can only be described as a miracle.

God Bless Us Everyone.

Kirbyjrt
03-03-2012, 11:01 AM
I like Serling. He will come out and say "not at that price"...

What I've always been somewhat put off by, at tracks, with their analysts, is why aren't their records posted? ROI?

Can we say during the meet such and such wins at 30% on straight win bets or exacta or trifecta, pick 3-4 whatever. Something to validate this person as a so called "expert".

Horse racing suffers from no shortage of opinions. Almost every track’s closed-circuit TV features handicappers offering analysis and making picks. With this being the case, I think it's only reasonable to see their statistics.

I don't pay much attention to them, but it is a little pet peave of mine with analysts.

JimG
03-03-2012, 11:10 AM
What I've always been somewhat put off by, at tracks, with their analysts, is why aren't their records posted? ROI?


It would hurt business. The casual and first time player would be smacked in the head with how hard it is to profit at this game.

Analysts are expected to provide picks for every race. It would be extremely difficult to show a profit.

Back on topic, Andy is one of the best at what he does. Not for his picks, but for his analysis and realistic look at value. Most of the people that follow racing could learn from Andy. Unfortunately for many, their ego will not allow that.

Jim

Kirbyjrt
03-03-2012, 11:18 AM
Good point.

I generally watch him if I choose to play AQ

Vinnie
03-03-2012, 11:19 AM
Excellent post JimG. :)

Awesome day Andy. I have always thoroughly enjoyed listening to your insights and analysis for the NYRA circuit. Once again, outstanding job sir.

thaskalos
03-03-2012, 11:31 AM
Analysts are expected to provide picks for every race. It would be extremely difficult to show a profit.

It would not be "extremely difficult"...it would be VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE!

When it comes to making a selection in every race, the "public's" opinion, as indicated by the tote board, is the best handicapper there is.

No other handicapper can compare...no matter who he may be.

PaceAdvantage
03-03-2012, 11:42 AM
It would not be "extremely difficult"...it would be VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE! Depends on what kind of time frame you are talking about. There have been many analysts (including Andy) who have shown a flat bet profit over the course of an entire meeting.

JimG
03-03-2012, 11:48 AM
Depends on what kind of time frame you are talking about. There have been many analysts (including Andy) who have shown a flat bet profit over the course of an entire meeting.

Exactly. That is what I was thinking about and why I chose the words I did. I know Andy has done it in the past and I believe Brad Thomas with MTH has done it. Not sure about others. It is "extremely difficult" to do for sure.

big frank
03-03-2012, 11:52 AM
I like Serling. He will come out and say "not at that price"...

What I've always been somewhat put off by, at tracks, with their analysts, is why aren't their records posted? ROI?

Can we say during the meet such and such wins at 30% on straight win bets or exacta or trifecta, pick 3-4 whatever. Something to validate this person as a so called "expert".

Horse racing suffers from no shortage of opinions. Almost every track’s closed-circuit TV features handicappers offering analysis and making picks. With this being the case, I think it's only reasonable to see their statistics.

I don't pay much attention to them, but it is a little pet peave of mine with analysts. how often do you hear '' not at that price '' on tvg ??? chalk-mark city

JimG
03-03-2012, 11:53 AM
It would not be "extremely difficult"...it would be VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE!

When it comes to making a selection in every race, the "public's" opinion, as indicated by the tote board, is the best handicapper there is.

No other handicapper can compare...no matter who he may be.

I stand by "extremely difficult". It has been done on multiple occasions, not only track handicappers, but newspaper handicappers as well.

Regarding the tote being the best handicapper. Sounds like you measure handicapping solely by win percentage. I don't. I favor looking at ROI for the picks. Money is what this game is about, not just picking winners.

Jim

mountainman
03-03-2012, 12:01 PM
It would not be "extremely difficult"...it would be VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE!

When it comes to making a selection in every race, the "public's" opinion, as indicated by the tote board, is the best handicapper there is.

No other handicapper can compare...no matter who he may be.

Amen, brother. While I do show a profit from the selections I've been posting on the website for about 20 months now, complete meets for which I've been in the black have not been numerous. The public is sharp, and outwitting them by more than 17% while picking every race is just not possible in the long run. The handicapper who can do that is yet to be born.

mountainman
03-03-2012, 12:03 PM
Agree 100% and when he says " I like so and so but not at that price, not for me" its one of the greatest educational lessons one can get to stay in the black.

I don't play the P4 regularly but his comment yesterday has stuck in my brain with other great stuff I try to retain.

Strong opinions get you in trouble...especially in Pick-4s. The idea is to survive races.

Here's the link for all archived chats.

http://www.nyra.com/livechat/index.shtml

I'm a great judge of analysts, and the guy's got game. No question about it.

thaskalos
03-03-2012, 12:59 PM
Regarding the tote being the best handicapper. Sounds like you measure handicapping solely by win percentage. I don't. I favor looking at ROI for the picks. Money is what this game is about, not just picking winners.


No, I am not measuring handicapping solely by win percentage; I am talking strictly ROI...just like you are.

You can form a group of the best handicappers ever born...Beyer, Ainslie, Brohamer, Quinn, Serling, Pittsburg Phil...ANYONE.

Ask them to narrow their opinions down to a single win bet for every race being run, and, in the LONG RUN...that group of elite players is guaranteed to show a worse ROI than the crowd's betting favorite.

GUARANTEED!

It's one of the great mysteries of our game...

cj
03-03-2012, 12:59 PM
It would not be "extremely difficult"...it would be VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE!

When it comes to making a selection in every race, the "public's" opinion, as indicated by the tote board, is the best handicapper there is.

No other handicapper can compare...no matter who he may be.
ROI wise this isn't close to true.

cj
03-03-2012, 01:00 PM
No, I am not measuring handicapping solely by win percentage; I am talking strictly ROI...just like you are.

You can form a group of the best handicappers ever born...Beyer, Ainslie, Brohamer, Quinn, Serling, Pittsburg Phil...ANYONE.

Ask them to narrow their opinions down to a single win bet for every race being run, and, in the LONG RUN...that group of elite players is guaranteed to show a worse ROI than the crowd's betting favorite.

GUARANTEED!

It's one of the great mysteries of our game...
This simply is not true.

thaskalos
03-03-2012, 01:04 PM
This simply is not true.

CJ...you are wrong.

The only way a handicapper can beat the favorite's ROI is by being selective.

There is no way he can do it by betting every race.

cj
03-03-2012, 01:09 PM
CJ...you are wrong.

The only way a handicapper can beat the favorite's ROI is by being selective.

There is no way he can do it by betting every race.
What do you base this on? I can back this up with my database, but first, I want to hear why you think this? Win percentage you are correct, but no way ROI.

thaskalos
03-03-2012, 01:19 PM
What do you base this on? I can back this up with my database, but first, I want to hear why you think this? Win percentage you are correct, but no way ROI.

Let's just say that this has been a pet project of mine for many years...

I think I know what you are going to say; I had a prominent New York figure maker tell me the same thing some years back.

He told me that he had proof that blindly betting his figures would easily outperform the crowd favorite's ROI...which, by the way, easily beats the 17% takeout.

I reminded him that the crowd is forced to make picks even for races in which figures do not apply.

He told me he would look into it and he would let me know...but I haven't heard from him yet.

badcompany
03-03-2012, 01:23 PM
What do you base this on? I can back this up with my database, but first, I want to hear why you think this? Win percentage you are correct, but no way ROI.

While I don't have stats to back this up, from what I've seen, most races are crapshoots, racing luck not handicapping is the determining factor. So, if you're betting every race you're automatically "handicapping" yourself vis a vis your ROI.

cj
03-03-2012, 01:34 PM
I reminded him that the crowd is forced to make picks even for races in which figures do not apply.

He told me he would look into it and he would let me know...but I haven't heard from him yet.
In those races, bet the favorite...case closed.

cj
03-03-2012, 01:35 PM
While I don't have stats to back this up, from what I've seen, most races are crapshoots, racing luck not handicapping is the determining factor. So, if you're betting every race you're automatically "handicapping" yourself vis a vis your ROI.
If you believe that, play roulette.

cj
03-03-2012, 01:40 PM
He told me that he had proof that blindly betting his figures would easily outperform the crowd favorite's ROI...which, by the way, easily beats the 17% takeout.



Buzzer sound.

I have over 245,000 favorites in my database. The return per dollar is 83.39 cents. It beats 17 percent, but barely, not easily.

TrifectaMike
03-03-2012, 02:20 PM
Allow me to introduce some clarity on this subject.

Let's view each horse in a collection of races as objects.

There are n objects.

A Favorite Selector can only select m objects ( each m object is the favorite). The favorite selector is confined to the favorite object (no exceptions).

Another Selector_1 can select k objects (k = m, but the objects are different, unless Another Selector_1 selects the same objects as the Favorite Selector).

Another Selector_2 can select j objects (j = m, but the objects are different, unless Another Selector_2 selects the same objects as the Favorite Selector).

We can can continue with numerous selectors under the same conditions.

Another Selector_3 can select i objects....
.................................................. ..........
.................................................. ..........

Another Selector_L can select l objects....

So, Thask are you suggesting that the Favorite Selector is the optimal selector from among all possible selectors of m objects from n objects in terms of both hit rate and ROI? If so, I would like to see this proof.

Mike (Dr Beav)

mountainman
03-03-2012, 02:23 PM
Buzzer sound.

I have over 245,000 favorites in my database. The return per dollar is 83.39 cents. It beats 17 percent, but barely, not easily.

I recall reading some statistics a few years back that had chalks at a higher roi, and with faves winning more now than then, the dichotomy must be attributable to shrinking fields and lower payoffs per winning chalk.

mountainman
03-03-2012, 02:33 PM
Allow me to introduce some clarity on this subject.

Let's view each horse in a collection of races as objects.

There are n objects.

A Favorite Selector can only select m objects ( each m object is the favorite). The favorite selector is confined to the favorite object (no exceptions).

Another Selector_1 can select k objects (k = m, but the objects are different, unless Another Selector_1 selects the same objects as the Favorite Selector).

Another Selector_2 can select j objects (j = m, but the objects are different, unless Another Selector_2 selects the same objects as the Favorite Selector).

We can can continue with numerous selectors under the same conditions.

Another Selector_3 can select i objects....
.................................................. ..........
.................................................. ..........

Another Selector_L can select l objects....

So, Thask are you suggesting that the Favorite Selector is the optimal selector from among all possible selectors of m objects from n objects in terms of both hit rate and ROI? If so, I would like to see this proof.

Mike (Dr Beav)

You can blindfold a trillion monkeys, too, and percentages say a considerable number of them will stab out a higher roi than chalks yield-and do so for a considerable period of time. But that's not methodology, and it's not repeatable over a second dry run from that subset of monkees.

GameTheory
03-03-2012, 02:44 PM
What do you base this on? I can back this up with my database, but first, I want to hear why you think this? Win percentage you are correct, but no way ROI.This is correct. It is fairly easy to come up with something that will beat the public ROI-wise, at least in theory.

You don't need a database, a simple thought experiment can confirm it. Again, in theory.

Let's say you have a spot play method -- a mechanical method that picks a horse to bet in one out of every 10 races (or whatever). Sometimes, it picks the favorite, sometimes it doesn't. Let's say this method is profitable, or only loses a few percent. I'm sure we can agree that something like this is possible -- many of us have such spot play methods. All we require of it for this discussion is that it beat the favorite ROI-wise in performance, which if it is profitable or nearly so is certainly the case. In other words, if we can agree that in races where we have a play it is possible to beat the public, then case closed.

Why case closed? Because if we can beat them in that subset where we have a spot play, we can always equal them in the rest of the races by simply playing the favorite, which means our overall performance betting every race will beat the public. But, here's where theory meets practice -- you can't always pick out the favorite in time to bet it. Nevertheless, the general point holds unless you think the "public always outperforms the handicapper when betting every race (single selection)" rule only applies solely because of this inability to pick out the favorite 100% of the time.


But putting my "proof" aside, there are other simple selection methods that will beat the public ROI along the lines of "bet the best beyer", etc (substituting ML favorite when there is no figures, or some such rule). To prove that, you do need a database, but I've seen enough examples of it in my time to no longer have any doubts that it can be done.

thaskalos
03-03-2012, 02:44 PM
I recall reading some statistics a few years back that had chalks at a higher roi, and with faves winning more now than then, the dichotomy must be attributable to shrinking fields and lower payoffs per winning chalk.
You took the words out of my mouth...

Every study on favorites that I have ever seen had their ROI much higher. But as you said, it's been some time since I last looked too.

I am surprised at these new stats...

TrifectaMike
03-03-2012, 02:48 PM
You can blindfold a trillion monkeys, too, and percentages say a considerable number of them will stab out a higher roi than chalks yield-and do so for a considerable period of time. But that's not methodology, and it's not repeatable over a second dry run from that subset of monkees.

I din't say anything about the selectors ( They are not restricted to be random selectors, nor are they obligated not to select the favorite. In fact, I'll add another subset of selectors. Selectors for whom the selections coincide with the Favorite Selector 90% of the time, but the 10% of the selected objects differ.

Mike (Dr Beav)

mountainman
03-03-2012, 03:16 PM
I'll add another subset of selectors. Selectors for whom the selections coincide with the Favorite Selector 90% of the time, but the 10% of the selected objects differ.

Mike (Dr Beav)

Casting a veneer of conformity over that subset of selectors doesn't restrict their access to an almost infintesimal number of possible picks. The point isn't what must randomly occur given a sufficient number of selectors, but instead which success rates would hold steady over a SECOND dry run..and a third..and a fourth-and thus prove foundated in some logic or methodology. Which brings us right back to the monkees. (rip davey jones, you should have lived forever)

Ocala Mike
03-03-2012, 10:25 PM
OK, it's been a long day of handicapping, and I'm late to this discussion, but I remember reading a book on this subject years ago that presented voluminous data on one's expected return from betting various categories of horses to win based on their post-time odds/degree of favoritism.

The findings were an almost perfectly linear graph showing that one lost less, ROI-wise, by wagering on post-time favorites, then slightly more losses with 2nd choices, and so forth and so on all the way through playing the longest shots in the race IN A VERY SMOOTH PROGRESSION, i.e., there were no "sweet spots" such as 6-1 shots consistently giving higher ROI's than 7/2 shots. Wish I could remember the name or the author of that book; Dowst? Ainslie?

Anyway, put another way, I'm inclined to think "intuitively" that what thaskalos has posted is essentially correct, but probably difficult for some to believe without the data in front of them.


Ocala Mike

PaceAdvantage
03-03-2012, 10:36 PM
What about the ones with the data actually in front of them, telling him he's incorrect?

cj
03-03-2012, 10:53 PM
What about the ones with the data actually in front of them, telling him he's incorrect?
This is like an episode of "The Twilight Zone".

thaskalos
03-04-2012, 01:12 AM
This is like an episode of "The Twilight Zone".

Cj, I was able to double-check your database results with a dependable source of my own...and I was shocked to discover that you are right. Things really have changed since I last looked at the ROI of these winning favorites; they are not currently returning anywhere near what I thought they did.

With the favorites posting a ROI of -16.61%...I must say that I am no longer confident that the toteboard is the best handicapper in the game.

GameTheory
03-04-2012, 04:11 AM
OK, it's been a long day of handicapping, and I'm late to this discussion, but I remember reading a book on this subject years ago that presented voluminous data on one's expected return from betting various categories of horses to win based on their post-time odds/degree of favoritism.

The findings were an almost perfectly linear graph showing that one lost less, ROI-wise, by wagering on post-time favorites, then slightly more losses with 2nd choices, and so forth and so on all the way through playing the longest shots in the race IN A VERY SMOOTH PROGRESSION, i.e., there were no "sweet spots" such as 6-1 shots consistently giving higher ROI's than 7/2 shots. Wish I could remember the name or the author of that book; Dowst? Ainslie?All that is still true as long as you stick to "based on their post-time odds/degree of favoritism". And there is no reason to think that won't remain true forever -- 2nd choices will always win less and return less than 1st choices, and so on. (Given a big enough sample size.) But it doesn't follow from that that you can never outperform favorites if you stratify horses by some other factor(s).

Rutgers
03-04-2012, 09:47 AM
With the favorites posting a ROI of -16.61%...I must say that I am no longer confident that the toteboard is the best handicapper in the game.



Years ago betting the favorite would have resulted in an about -10% ROI. However, today that is not the case. (As CJ’s and your stats point out)

Shrinking field sizes may be partially to blame. But the main reason is the uneven rebating “system” that is currently in place

Dave Schwartz
03-04-2012, 10:59 AM
Form Percentages and Probabilities 2012:

http://www.horsestreet.com/BBSImages/P&P2012/2YrsNMDirt_Favs.jpg

PaceAdvantage
03-04-2012, 12:29 PM
Cj, I was able to double-check your database results with a dependable source of my own...and I was shocked to discover that you are right.It's amazing how little trust some people have in CJ...even after years and years of proving himself in many different handicapping arenas...

Did you think he was lying and/or making this stuff up out of thin air? Posting crap for the hell of it?

I don't mean to bust on you, but you yourself have posted about how good you think CJ's pace figures are...I'm simply amazed you wouldn't take what he had to say at face value. Not that you shouldn't verify what anyone says on here yourself...you should always perform your own due diligence no matter the source...

But to say "you were shocked to discover," even AFTER CJ told you exactly what you were gonna find...that doesn't make much sense...

badcompany
03-04-2012, 12:32 PM
Years ago betting the favorite would have resulted in an about -10% ROI. However, today that is not the case. (As CJ’s and your stats point out)

Shrinking field sizes may be partially to blame. But the main reason is the uneven rebating “system” that is currently in place

So, if I understand this correctly, favorites are winning at a greater rate but because of their lower prices the ROI of betting them is worse?

badcompany
03-04-2012, 12:40 PM
If you believe that, play roulette.

What percentage of races do you believe "racing luck" is the deciding factor?

garyscpa
03-04-2012, 12:42 PM
Cj, I was able to double-check your database results with a dependable source of my own...and I was shocked to discover that you are right. Things really have changed since I last looked at the ROI of these winning favorites; they are not currently returning anywhere near what I thought they did.

With the favorites posting a ROI of -16.61%...I must say that I am no longer confident that the toteboard is the best handicapper in the game.

That's suspiciously close to the takeout rate. What do you think that means?

KirisClown
03-04-2012, 12:43 PM
No surprise.. Andy Serling has always been very good at what he does..

One of the first times I heard his thoughts on a race was back in 1996 at Belmont, he gave out an $87 winner named Cyber Chat..

cj
03-04-2012, 01:44 PM
What percentage of races do you believe "racing luck" is the deciding factor?
A factor, maybe 1/4, THE deciding factor, very few, less than 5%.

thaskalos
03-04-2012, 02:07 PM
It's amazing how little trust some people have in CJ...even after years and years of proving himself in many different handicapping arenas...

Did you think he was lying and/or making this stuff up out of thin air? Posting crap for the hell of it?

I don't mean to bust on you, but you yourself have posted about how good you think CJ's pace figures are...I'm simply amazed you wouldn't take what he had to say at face value. Not that you shouldn't verify what anyone says on here yourself...you should always perform your own due diligence no matter the source...

But to say "you were shocked to discover," even AFTER CJ told you exactly what you were gonna find...that doesn't make much sense...

For your information, I trust Cj enough to wager thousands of dollars on his figures every day. My position here had nothing to do with any lack of trust I might have in Cj's handicapping views.

Every single study I had ever seen on favorites had their ROI at around -10%...and this had remained constant over many years. Admittedly, I have not looked into this for a number of years now, but, with the escalating winning percentages of favorites in recent years, I never thought that their ROI had declined as much as it had. It made no sense to me.

When Cj said that favorites had an ROI of -16.31%, I was SHOCKED...but, exactly because it was Cj who said it, I never argued with the man -- even though I doubted his database findings. When someone's view on an aspect of this game flatly contradicts my own...my natural impulse is to believe ME, and to doubt the other person. It might seem like a lack of trust in the other person, or an egotistical viewpoint regarding my own handicapping opinions...but it's really neither one of those things.

It's just that natural sense of doubt -- and the self-confidence -- that ALL players must have if they are to survive in this game.

So, it wasn't anything personal against Cj...as you so wrongly surmised.

I would have doubted these findings...even if they came from the heavens above.

PaceAdvantage
03-04-2012, 02:13 PM
So, it wasn't anything personal against Cj...as you so wrongly surmised.

I would have doubted these findings...even if they came from the heavens above...I understand what you're saying, and I even put into my reply that you are right to do your own research to confirm what others are saying.

It's just that there have been many times cj has posted something on this forum that others have questioned or flat-out refused to believe as true...as if cj is either a fool or posting erroneous data on purpose for whatever reason.

I probably should have worded my reply in a more general manner rather than making it seem my beef was with you and you alone...I know you're a stand up guy who knows his stuff...

mountainman
03-04-2012, 04:28 PM
It's amazing how little trust some people have in CJ...even after years and years of proving himself in many different handicapping arenas...

Did you think he was lying and/or making this stuff up out of thin air? Posting crap for the hell of it?

I don't mean to bust on you, but you yourself have posted about how good you think CJ's pace figures are...I'm simply amazed you wouldn't take what he had to say at face value. Not that you shouldn't verify what anyone says on here yourself...you should always perform your own due diligence no matter the source...

But to say "you were shocked to discover," even AFTER CJ told you exactly what you were gonna find...that doesn't make much sense...

A big reason I come here is to consult guys with voluminous databases. Comprehensive stats on any query imaginable just might be the main thing that sets this forum apart. There are several, cj included, whom I should remember at xmas.

cj
03-04-2012, 07:03 PM
So, it wasn't anything personal against Cj...as you so wrongly surmised.

I would have doubted these findings...even if they came from the heavens above.

No worries, I would have done the exact same thing myself. I'm stubborn that way.

Light
03-04-2012, 08:49 PM
For your information, I trust Cj enough to wager thousands of dollars on his figures every day.

Literally?

PaceAdvantage
03-04-2012, 09:33 PM
Literally?In what other possible way could you take that sentence? Figuratively? :lol:

cj
03-04-2012, 09:34 PM
In what other possible way could you take that sentence? Figuratively? :lol:

Or, figures-atively!

Cardus
03-04-2012, 09:56 PM
No public selector can hold a candle to him. He gave out a $41 horse a couple of Saturdays ago that I got well on. I "follow" him on Twitter.


Ocala Mike

Abundantly true.

classhandicapper
03-04-2012, 10:04 PM
I've long been in the minority on this subject.

IMO, the way to measure how good a handicapper you are is by how often your "most probable" horse wins, "2nd most probable horse" wins etc... vs. the public. That's what tells you how well you understand the game and weigh all the factors.

In theory, someone with a high level of that skill should be able to identify value well because his odds lines will tend to be more accurate than someone that picks a low percentage of winners.

However, profits, ROI, etc... are also about gambling skills and identifying specific individual situations that offer value.

They are two different parts of the same game.

I've known people that I didn't consider very good handicappers that made a lot of money because they knew what they knew (however limited) and stayed with that.

IMO there's little question that there are a lot of people that can outperform the public from an ROI point of view, but I haven't seen much evidence of it being easy to pick a higher percentage of winners.

By my definition that means that the public is the better handicapper.

It's just possible to identify some races where the public gets it wrong. When the public does get it wrong, we get big prices. When we get it wrong (usually more often) the public is stuck with the favorite. :lol:

I've done studies of myself vs the favorite lot of times over the years.

I have rarely picked a higher % of winner than the public favorites. I usually match the win% but at a slightly higher price.

Light
03-04-2012, 11:19 PM
In what other possible way could you take that sentence? Figuratively? :lol:

Tongue in cheek?

badcompany
03-05-2012, 12:20 AM
It would hurt business. The casual and first time player would be smacked in the head with how hard it is to profit at this game.

Analysts are expected to provide picks for every race. It would be extremely difficult to show a profit.

Back on topic, Andy is one of the best at what he does. Not for his picks, but for his analysis and realistic look at value. Most of the people that follow racing could learn from Andy. Unfortunately for many, their ego will not allow that.

Jim

Does anyone know Andy's ROI for all races?

Since we all seem to agree that Andy's handicapping skills are top notch, wouldn't his ROI be a good indicator of how well you can do betting every race?

PaceAdvantage
03-05-2012, 02:54 AM
Does anyone know Andy's ROI for all races?I'm sure some folks do...and since they're not talking, it must mean he's in the black... :lol:

melman
03-05-2012, 07:34 AM
I'm not so sure about that "no public selector can hold a candle to him" comment. :) How about the Harness Eye/DRF's Derick Giwner. His stats for this years Meadowlands harness meet.

261 selections 81 winners for a return of $620.80. That ain't to shabby.

I'm not a t-bred guy but what about Brad Thomas. One card at Monmouth he picked a $60 a $40 and a couple of $20 winners.

One thing for sure picking every race is one tough beat.

Canarsie
03-05-2012, 08:08 AM
I'm not so sure about that "no public selector can hold a candle to him" comment. :) How about the Harness Eye/DRF's Derick Giwner. His stats for this years Meadowlands harness meet.

261 selections 81 winners for a return of $620.80. That ain't to shabby.

I'm not a t-bred guy but what about Brad Thomas. One card at Monmouth he picked a $60 a $40 and a couple of $20 winners.

One thing for sure picking every race is one tough beat.

There's probably a similarity between the two. My friend saw him at the train station at Monmouth headed back to NYC. He told me that he already was thoroughly engrossed in the next days DRF with lots of stuff already marked off.

Serling says he spends around 4 hours a day handicapping a card all that hard work pays off. My assumption is Thomas has the same work ethic. All that hard work commands one word which is RESPECT.

cj
03-05-2012, 08:32 AM
I'm not so sure about that "no public selector can hold a candle to him" comment. :) How about the Harness Eye/DRF's Derick Giwner. His stats for this years Meadowlands harness meet.

261 selections 81 winners for a return of $620.80. That ain't to shabby.

I'm not a t-bred guy but what about Brad Thomas. One card at Monmouth he picked a $60 a $40 and a couple of $20 winners.

One thing for sure picking every race is one tough beat.

Well, this is the Thoroughbred section Mel. Brad Thomas is very good, but it is has been tough at recent Monmouth meets to come up with those types of winners.

melman
03-05-2012, 09:10 AM
cj---Your starting to sound like my friend RXB. :) Who says if it ain't t-breds it don't count. No matter what the breed those kinds of numbers are impressive. Also cj Thomas had that huge day not that long ago at Monmouth. During the huge purses large handle year. I remember because a friend of mine who is a t-bred player treated a bunch of us to a surf and turf dinner at a very expensive downtown Philly eateary. Had to be one large bill. As a side note why should Sterling's ROI numbers for the meet even be a mystery? The Harness Eye has been listing that number for all it's public selector's for years now.

cj
03-05-2012, 09:33 AM
cj---Your starting to sound like my friend RXB. :) Who says if it ain't t-breds it don't count. No matter what the breed those kinds of numbers are impressive. Also cj Thomas had that huge day not that long ago at Monmouth. During the huge purses large handle year. I remember because a friend of mine who is a t-bred player treated a bunch of us to a surf and turf dinner at a very expensive downtown Philly eateary. Had to be one large bill. As a side note why should Sterling's ROI numbers for the meet even be a mystery? The Harness Eye has been listing that number for all it's public selector's for years now.

Of course it is impressive, I just didn't consider it for the thoroughbred section. As I said, no argument with Thomas, he is good, but that was 2010. Monmouth is on shaky ground these days.

As for the ROI, I don't know why it is a mystery. I never see anyone's published on the t-bred side.

melman
03-05-2012, 09:53 AM
Well cj you started this thread with "any public handicapper". Which Giwner is. However I do get your point about t-bred's section. I also agree in that I never see any t-bred public selector with updated meet stats. I don't understand why. It cannot be that hard. Harness Eye does an update every week on there selector's. Has been that way for years.

melman
03-05-2012, 12:27 PM
cj---Both you and I stand corrected. The New York Post does publish stats on how there public selector's are doing.

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/horse_racing/post_experts_pick_the_winners_R2EciKNAlar9f3W9NP48 nM

cj
03-05-2012, 12:34 PM
cj---Both you and I stand corrected. The New York Post does publish stats on how there public selector's are doing.

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/horse_racing/post_experts_pick_the_winners_R2EciKNAlar9f3W9NP48 nM

Looks like they might want to stop! Just kidding, Vic C isn't too bad.

Rapid Grey
03-05-2012, 12:40 PM
Don't think that the players that really follow Serling are really concerned about his ROI. He's clearly a solid handicapper and I would imagine someone who knows how to wager accordingly when he's got a strong angle. It may be something as simple as really liking a 5/2 shot over a even money one in one of those 5 horse fields at Aqueduct.

His 5/2 single could hit with his 2nd, 3rd and 4th choices in a Pick 4 for a grand yet his ROI for those 4 races, based on his top selection, would be a negative.

Considering the dynamics changing with the slot money in NY now it is imperative to listen to the guy imo, oh and Maggie Wolfendale too!

cj
03-05-2012, 12:51 PM
Don't think that the players that really follow Serling are really concerned about his ROI. He's clearly a solid handicapper and I would imagine someone who knows how to wager accordingly when he's got a strong angle. It may be something as simple as really liking a 5/2 shot over a even money one in one of those 5 horse fields at Aqueduct.

His 5/2 single could hit with his 2nd, 3rd and 4th choices in a Pick 4 for a grand yet his ROI for those 4 races, based on his top selection, would be a negative.

Considering the dynamics changing with the slot money in NY now it is imperative to listen to the guy imo, oh and Maggie Wolfendale too!

That, in a nutshell, is probably exactly why ROI isn't published. Experienced handicappers that really know the game understand the above and don't care about the ROI much. However, those that don't would probably put way too much into it, both positive and negative, rather than actually listen to what is being said.

melman
03-05-2012, 01:04 PM
I would agree but that also means we should not be quite as quick to "put-down" or downgrade other public selector's. After all most of them to not get to pick even knowing the late SCR's or track condition. Needless to say most public guys never get the chance to speak on which angle or how strong they view each and every pick. Serling and Thomas do.

Valuist
03-05-2012, 01:54 PM
I think the value in a guy like Serling is when he puts a horse on top that you overlook. Last fall at Belmont I remember he liked a 2 year old coming out of the far outer post in a NY bred stake. That horse had been beaten by 4 or 5 lengths to the race day favorite in their last start. I hadn't seen that last race. I concluded his reasoning was trip related; could've been bias related; could've been traffic related. In any event, I threw the horse in my Pic 4, the horse won at around $18-$20 and I caught the Pic 4. Now if he had just said he was shooting for a price hoping for a pace meltdown, I would've dismissed it as a mild opinion. But that wasn't the case.

Tom
03-05-2012, 03:26 PM
Serling is OK, but I like TLG much better. He knows his stuff!

speed
03-05-2012, 03:57 PM
Serling is OK, but I like TLG much better. He knows his stuff!
Serling is taller though.

Light
03-05-2012, 06:02 PM
Watching a few of the shows during this inner dirt track meet, I think Donovan has been the better handicapper. He picked a few horses I liked at mid range prices that won that Serling vehemently disliked. Serling will say things like "I don't want anyone coming out of that race". I'll look at my sheet and find that race to be the strongest rated field and have those horses run 1-2-3 in the race he's handicapping. A lot of times, Serling seems clueless to me like asking Donovan,"you think that horse will be bet?" Duh! Or "I can't believe they're betting this 0-10 horse". He misses a lot of angles.

Serling has his moments but so do all of us. If I or most people on this board handicapped a meet for its entirety,I can assure you we would pick horses at prices like CJ mentioned at the beginning of this thread. Take a look at the selections thread sometimes and you will see people regularly picking price horses and they don't need an entire meet to get there. Those must have been the first price horses Serling picked for the meet and its almost over.

Notice the gaps in time between some TLG fan posting a hit he made. Those gaps are fairly large in time. I wouldn't brag about it.

cj
03-05-2012, 06:21 PM
Watching a few of the shows during this inner dirt track meet, I think Donovan has been the better handicapper. He picked a few horses I liked at mid range prices that won that Serling vehemently disliked. Serling will say things like "I don't want anyone coming out of that race". I'll look at my sheet and find that race to be the strongest rated field and have those horses run 1-2-3 in the race he's handicapping. A lot of times, Serling seems clueless to me like asking Donovan,"you think that horse will be bet?" Duh! Or "I can't believe they're betting this 0-10 horse". He misses a lot of angles.

Serling has his moments but so do all of us. If I or most people on this board handicapped a meet for its entirety,I can assure you we would pick horses at prices like CJ mentioned at the beginning of this thread. Take a look at the selections thread sometimes and you will see people regularly picking price horses and they don't need an entire meet to get there. Those must have been the first price horses Serling picked for the meet and its almost over.

Notice the gaps in time between some TLG fan posting a hit he made. Those gaps are fairly large in time. I wouldn't brag about it.

If you truly believe Donavan has been better, you either happened to watch on a few rare days or you have a built in bias against TLG. It isn't even close. You are so wrong about the meet it is embarrassing for you. If you really don't know anything about a subject, why post?

GameTheory
03-05-2012, 06:25 PM
If you really don't know anything about a subject, why post?Then he would never be able to post at all.

Light
03-05-2012, 06:57 PM
If you truly believe Donavan has been better, you either happened to watch on a few rare days or you have a built in bias against TLG. It isn't even close. You are so wrong about the meet it is embarrassing for you. If you really don't know anything about a subject, why post?

He's been fair to sub par this meet. His pick in the Gotham was nowhere to be found. If you got something to prove he's better than that then prove it.

PaceAdvantage
03-05-2012, 07:02 PM
Not going down this road again with the same song and dance routine from Light. It got boring years ago...

cj
03-05-2012, 07:13 PM
He's been fair to sub par this meet. His pick in the Gotham was nowhere to be found. If you got something to prove he's better than that then prove it.

Any of us that pick 20 to 1 shots are going to see the vast majority run up the track...big deal. Fair to subpar? You are so wrong, but I'm clearly just wasting words on you.

Light
03-05-2012, 07:35 PM
Not going down this road again with the same song and dance routine from Light. It got boring years ago...

I'll tell you what's boring. Is every time TLG hits something that pays anything someone has to celebrate him as a genius handicapper. Then you get all the brown nosers chiming in.That is what is getting real old. If I want to hear gaga over gogo I'll play with a baby who has more intelligence.

PaceAdvantage
03-05-2012, 07:37 PM
I'll tell you what's boring. Is every time TLG hits something that pays anything someone has to celebrate him as a genius handicapper. Then you get all the brown nosers chiming in.That is what is getting real old. If I want to hear gaga over gogo I'll play with a baby who has more intelligence.Don't click on the ****ing thread then....obsess much?

I know goddamn well you track every ****ing pick he makes, and if he was showing a negative ROI, you'd be the first to report here. That's how I know he's doing quite well this year.

Light
03-05-2012, 07:46 PM
Did you notice I didn't talk about him till late in this thread? Yeah, I didn't want to discuss him either because I don't think he's worth the time.The thread had turned to thaskalos. That's when I entered. In waiting for a response from him (which never happened,so I got my answer),the thread turned to the genius again. So I just thought I would give my personal review of seeing his shows recently. Of course a negative review is taken offensively and with hostility. Any rate, I'm done.

PaceAdvantage
03-05-2012, 07:54 PM
Of course a negative review is taken offensively and with hostility. Any rate, I'm done.I asked you nicely not to go down this road again, and you came back with your own brand of hostility, calling people brown nosers and whatnot.

So I gave you what you wanted...a very earthy and simple solution to your boredom...don't click on any threads with Andy's name attached to them.

It's so simple, even an idiot could figure it out.

And you're never done when it comes to Serling. That much we know.

And for your information, there are many people besides Thaskalos that bet thousands of dollars (and more) per day using CJ's numbers.

When Thaskalos's team won the PAIHL last year, he received a complimentary subscription to cj's numbers...that's how he was first exposed to them...he's a serious player, unlike a lot of folks on here...

Cardus
03-05-2012, 08:17 PM
I asked you nicely not to go down this road again, and you came back with your own brand of hostility, calling people brown nosers and whatnot.

So I gave you what you wanted...a very earthy and simple solution to your boredom...don't click on any threads with Andy's name attached to them.

It's so simple, even an idiot could figure it out.

And you're never done when it comes to Serling. That much we know.

And for your information, there are many people besides Thaskalos that bet thousands of dollars (and more) per day using CJ's numbers.

When Thaskalos's team won the PAIHL last year, he received a complimentary subscription to cj's numbers...that's how he was first exposed to them...he's a serious player, unlike a lot of folks on here...

That's quite an indictment.

PaceAdvantage
03-05-2012, 08:24 PM
That's quite an indictment.No it isn't. There's nothing wrong with playing this game for the enjoyment of the sport along with a modest wager.

I'm just pointing out that when someone posts that they bet thousands a day, another guy shouldn't automatically assume that this person isn't being serious just because a lot of people here don't bet thousands a day (and a lot of people DON'T...simple fact).

I know some people here look down on the opinions of those that don't bet thousands of dollars a day, but I'm not one of them...probably because I don't bet thousands a day... :lol:

lamboguy
03-05-2012, 08:40 PM
anyone that bets thousands every day is a very serious player. its not that easy to do anymore with these small handles in the smaller tracks.

thaskalos
03-05-2012, 09:42 PM
Did you notice I didn't talk about him till late in this thread? Yeah, I didn't want to discuss him either because I don't think he's worth the time.The thread had turned to thaskalos. That's when I entered. In waiting for a response from him (which never happened,so I got my answer),the thread turned to the genius again. So I just thought I would give my personal review of seeing his shows recently. Of course a negative review is taken offensively and with hostility. Any rate, I'm done.
I never intended to have this thread turn to thaskalos. And I didn't make that comment about how much I bet because I wanted to gloat; I did it because I wanted to show PA how much I trust CJ's handicapping judgement.

I have a two-fold reason why I didn't answer your question on whether or not I was kidding about the size of my bets.

One...it didn't seem like a legitimate question to me; I thought it was just another one of those putdowns for which you have become famous around here. And two...it seems a little childish for grown-ups to make claims which cannot be substantiated -- so I didn't bother to pursue the matter any further. If you are really curious about how much I bet, then let me assure you that I indeed bet thousands of dollars every day...and that CJ's numbers play a very big role in what I do.

I would also like to address this TLG "brownnosing" business.

Unlike you...I don't have a jealous bone in my body, and I have no problem giving credit where credit is due.

I have had more than my share of confrontations on this site -- sometimes with some of the most respected names around here -- but that doesn't blind me to the good qualities of these fine gentlemen. I may argue with them when I think they are wrong...but I am the first to salute them when I feel they deserve it.

Not only are TLG and I not friends, he may even consider me an enemy of his...because of some unpleasantries between us during the "Zenyatta era". Even if I send him a complimentary PM about his handicapping prowess...he probably won't even bother answering me.

So? Does that mean that I shouldn't offer this man the praise that he so richly deserves? Should I criticize him unjustly just to satisfy my insatiable ego? That's not what I do.

And if YOU were to inform us tomorrow that you hit a 7-digit pick-6...the first person to congratulate you would be thaskalos.

Promise...

PaceAdvantage
03-05-2012, 09:45 PM
Not only are TLG and I not friends, he may even consider me an enemy of his...because of some unpleasantries between us during the "Zenyatta era". Even if I send him a complimentary PM about his handicapping prowess...he probably won't even bother answering me. I'm willing to bet thousands of dollars that not only would he answer you, but that he would be happy to do so...

Robert Fischer
03-05-2012, 10:12 PM
Andy Serling is a good handicapper.

How much have these multi-race wagers been playing?

Tom
03-05-2012, 10:16 PM
Andy is one heck of a nice guy in person. You have to respect his energy for the game.

FantasticDan
03-05-2012, 11:36 PM
I haven't had a chance to watch many of the NYRA replay shows since MSG+ was added back to Time Warner, but I did catch the end of an amusing NYRA commercial that was having some good fun at Andy's expense.. funny stuff. :ThmbUp:

badcompany
03-06-2012, 01:37 AM
I'll tell you what's boring. Is every time TLG hits something that pays anything someone has to celebrate him as a genius handicapper. Then you get all the brown nosers chiming in.That is what is getting real old. If I want to hear gaga over gogo I'll play with a baby who has more intelligence.

You wish you had the pride, dignity and good grooming habits of this man:

http://blog.timesunion.com/saratogaseen/files/2010/07/serling.jpg

castaway01
03-06-2012, 08:44 AM
Andy Serling is a good handicapper.

How much have these multi-race wagers been playing?

The Pick 4 that had the Rudy Rodriguez $12.20 horse and the 20-1ML winner in the first two legs paid $2590 for a buck and were part of a $118,039 Pick 6 (not saying he hit the Pick 6).

What impresses me with Andy's picks is his confidence. He sounded confident in that 20-1, and I think that's a quality you have to have to be a successful horseplayer. It also helps if you can back it up, like he did. That same conviction is what makes his commentary useful and entertaining, because he has opinions and brings up points that give you greater insight into the race.

Shankapotamus
03-06-2012, 09:13 AM
What I like most about TLG is his analysis of the favorite in every race. Being a very modest better, my betting strategy has always been to pass races where I think the favorite is legitimate. There have been many, many times where I was ready to pass a race until Andy points out the favorite ran a bias-aided race, the formulator stats show a terrible ROI for a particular factor etc. I may not agree with Andy's selection, but I've cashed several win wagers in races I would have normally passed.

I don't really need a public handicapper to tout a horse that ran second in the class last out, is trained by a 30% guy, and is 4 of 6 at the distance. Guys like Andy and Brad Thomas make it so much more interesting with their beyond-the-obvious analysis.

Kirbyjrt
03-06-2012, 06:50 PM
In the end I think Andy is a good handicapper and I enjoy watching the show, but I would still like some sort of statistics, not just for him, but anyone who has the publics eye.

Not a knock on Mr. Serling, but a knock on the analysts in general. I suppose I would like to see a little proof in their abilities, and not just a talking head.

PaceAdvantage
03-07-2012, 02:30 AM
http://blog.timesunion.com/saratogaseen/files/2010/07/serling.jpgA $1 to anyone who hacks into Light's PC and makes this his background image... :lol:

lsosa54
03-07-2012, 06:23 AM
PA: You need to up the bounty on the Light PC hacking, at least to "knocking out Brett Favre" levels - $10K? In addition to Andy's image, also install Handifast and make it non-deletable.

speed
03-07-2012, 08:31 AM
A $1 to anyone who hacks into Light's PC and makes this his background image... :lol:
Priceless!

Tom
03-07-2012, 09:17 AM
Which one in that picture is Andy?

Steve 'StatMan'
03-07-2012, 10:33 AM
A $1 to anyone who hacks into Light's PC and makes this his background image... :lol:

Up it so several hundred if they also turn on his webcam and capture his reaction!

maddog42
03-07-2012, 12:17 PM
It's amazing how little trust some people have in CJ...even after years and years of proving himself in many different handicapping arenas...

Did you think he was lying and/or making this stuff up out of thin air? Posting crap for the hell of it?

I don't mean to bust on you, but you yourself have posted about how good you think CJ's pace figures are...I'm simply amazed you wouldn't take what he had to say at face value. Not that you shouldn't verify what anyone says on here yourself...you should always perform your own due diligence no matter the source...

But to say "you were shocked to discover," even AFTER CJ told you exactly what you were gonna find...that doesn't make much sense...

Lets tar and feather him.

cj's dad
03-07-2012, 12:30 PM
Lets tar and feather him.

Hey !!

Robert Fischer
03-07-2012, 01:06 PM
PA: You need to up the bounty on the Light PC hacking, at least to "knocking out Brett Favre" levels - $10K? In addition to Andy's image, also install Handifast and make it non-deletable.

Had to laugh out loud at "bounty".

mistergee
03-07-2012, 02:26 PM
Which one in that picture is Andy?
I Laughed

maddog42
03-07-2012, 03:45 PM
Lets tar and feather him.

I was joking. I sent a rather weak apology to thaskalos. Pathetic attempt at humor. Sarcasm lost on people. I pretty much labored under that same impression of favorite superiority.
sorry Thask.

Ocala Mike
03-07-2012, 03:57 PM
tlg just got me out again with a 12/1 shot in the 7th at AQU that he tweeted last night. Thanks, Andy!


Ocala Mike

thaskalos
03-07-2012, 04:13 PM
I was joking. I sent a rather weak apology to thaskalos. Pathetic attempt at humor. Sarcasm lost on people. I pretty much labored under that same impression of favorite superiority.
sorry Thask.
My friend, there is no need for apologies.

I love a good ribbing...and can take it, as well as dish it out.

Jake
03-07-2012, 04:29 PM
Serling's thoughtful analysis of the race is more valuable than the picks themselves.

A first-rate handicapper all the way!

I couldn't agree more. He is always prepared, with a sharp knife for a mind, articulate, and fearless with his choices. Why knock this guy, given his public record for all to follow. It's a real pleasure to listen to this kind of handicapping.


Jake

cj
03-07-2012, 04:33 PM
My friend, there is no need for apologies.

I love a good ribbing...and can take it, as well as dish it out.

Tarred and feathered? I was going to suggest eating a box of Turkish Delight!

thaskalos
03-07-2012, 04:53 PM
Tarred and feathered? I was going to suggest eating a box of Turkish Delight!
The only Turkish export that I like are the women...provided they shave their moustaches.

Jake
03-07-2012, 05:13 PM
I couldn't agree more. He is always prepared, with a sharp knife for a mind, articulate, and fearless with his choices. Why knock this guy, given his public record for all to follow. It's a real pleasure to listen to this kind of handicapping.


Jake

Case in point, I caught the Pk4 today at Aqueduct, not a big payoff but nice enough for the transparency of all the contenders. That is with the exception of one race: In the 7th race leg, I added the #3 horse, Romancing the Gold, after Andy made a reasonable case in the pre-show why this horse might jump up this race. Hitting for $27, it proved the longshot pivot for the Pk4 bet. Again, not a big hit, but nevertheless thank you, Andy.

badcompany
03-08-2012, 02:56 PM
A factor, maybe 1/4, THE deciding factor, very few, less than 5%.

We're still waiting to see the yearly ROI of top public handicappers. If 95% of races can be successfully handicapped, surely guys like Andy and Thomas are showing positive returns on a regular basis.

cj
03-08-2012, 04:38 PM
We're still waiting to see the yearly ROI of top public handicappers. If 95% of races can be successfully handicapped, surely guys like Andy and Thomas are showing positive returns on a regular basis.

I don't track them, but by all means have at it. I will bet anyone that Serling is in the black for the inner dirt meet without having the statistics to back it up.

HOWEVER, nobody said 95% of the races can be successfully handicapped. I said the outcome of less than 5% of races are determine with luck being the biggest factor. These aren't even remotely close to the same thing.

thaskalos
03-08-2012, 07:28 PM
I said the outcome of less than 5% of races are determine with luck being the biggest factor. These aren't even remotely close to the same thing.

What if we replaced the word "luck" with the word "chaos"?

mountainman
03-08-2012, 09:32 PM
What if we replaced the word "luck" with the word "chaos"?

Gee.... 5 or 6 tons of wild-eyed beast? Running breakneck on spindly legs ? Over pain inducing surfaces? With various cocktails of illicit substances coursing through their veins? As frightened, fallible humans plot strategy and slash at them with stinging leather? And you DARE bring CHAOS into the discussion??? lol.

classhandicapper
03-09-2012, 10:41 AM
It would be interesting to see a study that shows the percentage of time the "best" horse in the race actually wins.

The problem of course is that there would be a lot of differences of opinions on the trips, but if several people did the same study independently, we still might get some interesting results.

badcompany
03-09-2012, 11:00 AM
What if we replaced the word "luck" with the word "chaos"?

I was going to say something to this effect.

Luck might not have been the right word. What I'm really talking about are the things you couldn't have known beforehand.

Every race has its variables but some have more than others. At some point, an educated guess becomes a wild guess.

That's why I don't consider it a knock on a public handicapper for not showing a positive roi. He's forced to take too many wild guesses.

cj
03-09-2012, 11:33 AM
It would be interesting to see a study that shows the percentage of time the "best" horse in the race actually wins.

The problem of course is that there would be a lot of differences of opinions on the trips, but if several people did the same study independently, we still might get some interesting results.

Maybe with Trakus, just take distance run divided by time to get the "fastest" horse in each race? That wouldn't account for trouble though.

castaway01
03-09-2012, 12:58 PM
I was going to say something to this effect.

Luck might not have been the right word. What I'm really talking about are the things you couldn't have known beforehand.

Every race has its variables but some have more than others. At some point, an educated guess becomes a wild guess.

That's why I don't consider it a knock on a public handicapper for not showing a positive roi. He's forced to take too many wild guesses.

Though it might not seem like it when you're wagering, those "things you can't account for" will happen equally to both the favorite and the 90-1 shot (actually, I'd argue that the favorite would have more of an ability to overcome them as well as more talent to be in better racing position, but still...). So, sometimes the things you can't account for will hurt and sometimes they'll help, but in the end they'll even out. In one individual race, sure, "bad luck" can affect the outcome, but over the course of 1000 races it shouldn't affect your ability to pick the winner any more than any other random factor.

badcompany
03-09-2012, 01:16 PM
Though it might not seem like it when you're wagering, those "things you can't account for" will happen equally to both the favorite and the 90-1 shot (actually, I'd argue that the favorite would have more of an ability to overcome them as well as more talent to be in better racing position, but still...). So, sometimes the things you can't account for will hurt and sometimes they'll help, but in the end they'll even out. In one individual race, sure, "bad luck" can affect the outcome, but over the course of 1000 races it shouldn't affect your ability to pick the winner any more than any other random factor.

It's not about picking winners. You can have a day where you hit five races and lose, and another day in which you have one winner and win.

It's really about positive expectation viz. overcoming the takeout. If you're playing races that have a negative expectation, you'll have your share of wins but, in the long run, you'll lose. IMO, the reason those races have a negative expectation is because there are too many variables. The handicapper is in a position of having to solve X + Y = 4.

This concept is harder to see in horseracing, as opposed to, say a coin flip situation where you'd receive .95 for heads, but have to pay 1.05 for tails. A public handicapper has to play too many of this type of race to show a positive roi on a year in year out basis.

thaskalos
03-09-2012, 01:33 PM
The public handicapper who can show a profit for the long-term has not been born yet.

And if he ever does show up...my money says that he will have the sense to keep his ability hidden from the public eye...

cj
03-09-2012, 02:14 PM
It's not about picking winners. You can have a day where you hit five races and lose, and another day in which you have one winner and win.



Assuming you mean on one card, there is no chance I could ever have 5 winners and lose.

classhandicapper
03-09-2012, 02:16 PM
I case you guys are missing it, Andy is crushing today

cj
03-09-2012, 03:22 PM
I case you guys are missing it, Andy is crushing today

Yep, straight early double paid $78.50.

badcompany
03-09-2012, 03:28 PM
Assuming you mean on one card, there is no chance I could ever have 5 winners and lose.

Two players, A & B, each bet $2 on every race of a ten-race card.

Player A has five winners with average price of $3.80.

Player B has one winner which paid $22.00.

Player B has a positive roi, Player A, negative.

It might not be possible for you, but, it is possible.

cj
03-09-2012, 03:30 PM
Two players, A & B, each bet $2 on every race of a ten-race card.

Player A has five winners with average price of $3.80.

Player B has one winner which paid $22.00.

Player B has a positive roi, Player B, negative.

It might not be possible for you, but, it is possible.

I agree, I was talking about me. Of course it is possible. Player A is also going to be a loser in my opinion unless he is getting a stout rebate.

badcompany
03-09-2012, 03:36 PM
The public handicapper who can show a profit for the long-term has not been born yet.

And if he ever does show up...my money says that he will have the sense to keep his ability hidden from the public eye...

This holds true in the stock market, as well.

Every Bull and Bear market has its "gurus" who called the exact top or bottom; however, their genius usually disappears by the next top/bottom.

The reason for this is that they're trying to solve equations with too many unknowns.

Robert Fischer
03-09-2012, 03:56 PM
Yep, straight early double paid $78.50.

Not a bad day for Serling.

classhandicapper
03-09-2012, 04:03 PM
Yep, straight early double paid $78.50.

I mean this as a compliment.

I don't know how he came up with the winner of the 2nd.

To me the horse looked like a very slow router dropping back to a sprint where he would probably get outrun. He had gone off at 45-1, 80-1 and 25-1 for a trainer that hadn't won a race in several years.

It was a terrible field screaming out for a wake up horse, but at 6.60-1 I couldn't play that horse even with Andy's blessing. Great pick. I must have missed something.

cj
03-09-2012, 04:09 PM
I mean this as a compliment.

I don't know how he came up with the winner of the 2nd.

To me the horse looked like a very slow router dropping back to a sprint where he would probably get outrun. He had gone off at 45-1, 80-1 and 25-1 for a trainer that hadn't won a race in several years.

It was a terrible field screaming out for a wake up horse, but at 6.60-1 I couldn't play that horse even with Andy's blessing. Great pick. I must have missed something.

I know you did. I hope you didn't think I took it some other way. I was just adding details.

classhandicapper
03-09-2012, 04:19 PM
I know you did. I hope you didn't think I took it some other way. I was just adding details.

No at all.

I just wanted to make sure my analysis of the 2nd race was interpreted as a compliment to him and lack of "something" on my part rather than an insult at his selection.

Robert Fischer
03-09-2012, 07:21 PM
No at all.

I just wanted to make sure my analysis of the 2nd race was interpreted as a compliment to him and lack of "something" on my part rather than an insult at his selection.

If you are implying that Serling had a bad day, I disagree.

classhandicapper
03-09-2012, 09:51 PM
If you are implying that Serling had a bad day, I disagree.

What?

I was the one that came here to point out he had the double cold.

Gee wiz, I know I'm not best communicator, but I thought I bent over backwards to be clear that I was impressed with his selection in the second race because I had tossed the horse.

Ocala Mike
03-09-2012, 09:57 PM
I don't have the "database" on this, but it would seem that he is having great success looking for horses turning back in distance. Missed his picks today, unfortunately.


Ocala Mike

thaskalos
03-09-2012, 09:57 PM
What?

I was the one that came here to point out he had the double cold.

Gee wiz, I know I'm not best communicator, but I thought I bent over backwards to be clear that I was impressed with his selection in the second race because I had tossed the horse.

Serves you right for cutting down on the size of your posts lately...

Your usual clarity is not there anymore... :)

PaceAdvantage
03-09-2012, 10:41 PM
The public handicapper who can show a profit for the long-term has not been born yet.Define long-term.

Forever? For an entire meet? For a certain number of days?

Canarsie
03-10-2012, 11:49 AM
I will say this that no public handicapper has a higher ROI tweeting horses and the results are there for eternity now.

I would venture Maggie's ROI is in the plus the main advantage being she doesn't tweet every race.

In today's world that's become a valuable asset especially because it can be sent to your phone really not impeding your days activities even in the business world.

The public handicapper at the track can alter his picks depending on looks and odds. There are so many time Serling says " I like so and so but not at those odds". He will also say sometimes he is treading lightly or not playing certain races.

cj
03-10-2012, 12:57 PM
Andy is making an appearance on HRTV soon. Now, actually.

badcompany
03-10-2012, 01:03 PM
I will say this that no public handicapper has a higher ROI tweeting horses and the results are there for eternity now.

I would venture Maggie's ROI is in the plus the main advantage being she doesn't tweet every race.



Does anyone really care about Maggie's roi?

http://i87.photobucket.com/albums/k151/TenFurlongs/2011_07240023.jpg

big frank
03-10-2012, 01:03 PM
I will say this that no public handicapper has a higher ROI tweeting horses and the results are there for eternity now.

I would venture Maggie's ROI is in the plus the main advantage being she doesn't tweet every race.

In today's world that's become a valuable asset especially because it can be sent to your phone really not impeding your days activities even in the business world.

The public handicapper at the track can alter his picks depending on looks and odds. There are so many time Serling says " I like so and so but not at those odds". He will also say sometimes he is treading lightly or not playing certain races.
I love the '' little guy '' , but Maggie ?? i don't see it... There was a Goldberg horse the other day that never ran on dirt and Maggie said the horse had a big turf hoof and probably wouldn't handle dirt.. I was going to play that horse anyway but after i heard that i doubled up and cashed a nice ticket.. Sort of like when Rich Perloff hates a horse i like , i just double or triple up... I could bring a racing form down to the paddock and give you the same info she does.. if the horse has a sprint pedigree i could say he is built like a sprinter and if the horse has a route ped i could say he or she is built like a router.. and if dutrow or levine claim a horse 1st time i could say he or she is on there toes..... Andy is the only one worth listening to on the show

Rise Over Run
03-10-2012, 01:06 PM
I could bring a racing form down to the paddock and give you the same info she does

Something tells me a guy named "Big Frank" isn't as easy on the eyes though... :lol:

JBmadera
03-10-2012, 01:07 PM
Does anyone really care about Maggie's roi?

http://i87.photobucket.com/albums/k151/TenFurlongs/2011_07240023.jpg


EXACTLY!! :ThmbUp:

PhantomOnTour
03-10-2012, 04:26 PM
Hate to join in here, but i can count the number of helpful female racing analysts on one hand...Cantey, Bredar, Dawn Lupul at Woodbine (awesome!) and sometimes Jessica Pacheco & Joanne Jones.

You can have the rest, or just stare at them, as some surely do.

Conley, Cadman, Yu, Millie Ball, Katie Mikolay...they do nothing for me.

big frank
03-10-2012, 04:35 PM
SENSATIONAL SLAM ------nice call Andy ---negative info is more important to me....

mannyberrios
03-10-2012, 05:04 PM
I don't care about Maggie's ROI

Robert Fischer
03-10-2012, 05:25 PM
Maggie is actually one of the better paddock handicappers that I've seen on air.

igiveupregistering
03-10-2012, 07:24 PM
Maggie is actually one of the better paddock handicappers that I've seen on air.

:cool: I agree.


I listen to her "every day". Her observations are usually accurate...
Who is the handicapper/analyst who is correct 100% of the time?

In person, Maggie is even prettier than her picture... and fan-friendly...

maddog42
03-20-2012, 03:40 PM
Gee.... 5 or 6 tons of wild-eyed beast? Running breakneck on spindly legs ? Over pain inducing surfaces? With various cocktails of illicit substances coursing through their veins? As frightened, fallible humans plot strategy and slash at them with stinging leather? And you DARE bring CHAOS into the discussion??? lol.

One of the funnier posts in a long time. Keep it up MM, I need a chuckle from time to time.

shouldacoulda
03-21-2012, 09:51 AM
I like the way Andy picks apart a race. If there is a way to bet against a vulnerable favorite he will say it. He may not be as good looking as Maggie but his handicapping makes up for it.

What I do like about Maggie (besides her looks) is she is one of the few that I see that addresses physicality of the horses. I don't get the impression she is reading someone elses words.

Robert Goren
03-21-2012, 11:02 AM
Maggie's job is to comment on the physical appearance of the horses in the paddock. You take it or leave it if you wish. I think does she at as good of job of doing that as Serling does of handicapping. I view her opinions are a tool to be used since I am not at the track to judge the horses myself. Serling, Maggie etc are as good of a team of pre race commentators is there is in racing today.

aaron
03-21-2012, 11:09 AM
I like the way Andy picks apart a race. If there is a way to bet against a vulnerable favorite he will say it. He may not be as good looking as Maggie but his handicapping makes up for it.

What I do like about Maggie (besides her looks) is she is one of the few that I see that addresses physicality of the horses. I don't get the impression she is reading someone elses words.
Having Andy and Maggie as part of the NYRA broadcast is definitely a plus. Try listening to TVG and you will realize how good the NYRA show is.
Both Andy and Maggie do their homework. I have seen Maggie in the paddock taking notes. What they do is break down a race and give you information you might not have. This is more important in my opinion than their picks.

shouldacoulda
03-22-2012, 01:26 PM
Having Andy and Maggie as part of the NYRA broadcast is definitely a plus. Try listening to TVG and you will realize how good the NYRA show is.
Both Andy and Maggie do their homework. I have seen Maggie in the paddock taking notes. What they do is break down a race and give you information you might not have. This is more important in my opinion than their picks.
Wasn't she at Colonial Downs a couple years ago?

mistergee
03-22-2012, 06:27 PM
what happened to the Beulah twins

Rise Over Run
03-22-2012, 07:17 PM
Wasn't she at Colonial Downs a couple years ago?
Yes, she co-hosted the pre-race handicapping discussions at Colonial in 2010, and maybe 2009. Was also training horses at that time as well.

mountainman
03-22-2012, 08:24 PM
One of the funnier posts in a long time. Keep it up MM, I need a chuckle from time to time.

Tx, dude. "Chaos is the law of nature, order is the dream of man (and his figures)" Incidentally, I've known players with an uncanny knack for incorporating chaos on their tickets. Not always the best handicappers, but they made the best scores-sometimes with astonishing regularity.

ezpace
03-26-2012, 01:32 PM
NY"ers on the backside at Belmont /AQU/ SAR tell me
TLG has not had to do dishes at a restaurant
for his evening meal in months ,as i have posted
here before. LOL Congratz to TLG one of the very few
public handicappers worth listening to. He's s a v v y

Robert Fischer
03-26-2012, 04:45 PM
Not a bad day for Serling.

castaway01
03-27-2012, 12:55 PM
what happened to the Beulah twins

Not sure if you're trolling so probably dumb of me to respond, but in case you weren't, Katie Mikolay has been working for Fair Grounds TV the past two years, and Jenna is no longer working on the air as far as I know.

the little guy
03-27-2012, 01:36 PM
Not sure if you're trolling so probably dumb of me to respond, but in case you weren't, Katie Mikolay has been working for Fair Grounds TV the past two years, and Jenna is no longer working on the air as far as I know.

What does Katie Mikolay have to do with the Beulah Twins other than also being a woman?

lamboguy
03-27-2012, 01:50 PM
they must be cuzzins

duncan04
03-27-2012, 01:55 PM
What does Katie Mikolay have to do with the Beulah Twins other than also being a woman?

Was wondering that myself. Besides both being a blonde female with the name Katie! :rolleyes: :D

Light
03-27-2012, 02:22 PM
TLG

What do you think of Flat Bold now? That was the last time I watched your show and you hated him. I nearly fell off my chair. My lower chin dropped six feet. The crowd made him a 3/2 favorite as he won for fun with trouble.

Yep. That was not a good day for Serling.

thaskalos
03-27-2012, 02:27 PM
Wow...this from the man who is never wrong...

lamboguy
03-27-2012, 02:31 PM
just curious GUS, what did you think of the winner at PARX 5th today @ even money?

PhantomOnTour
03-27-2012, 02:46 PM
TLG

What do you think of Flat Bold now? That was the last time I watched your show and you hated him. I nearly fell off my chair. My lower chin dropped six feet. The crowd made him a 3/2 favorite as he won for fun with trouble.

Yep. That was not a good day for Serling.
It's funny how, when one says something like this about someone else, they wind up saying more about themself then the person they were attacking.

You've made your point...about yourself, again.

And my IGNORE list grows... :D

castaway01
03-27-2012, 02:51 PM
What does Katie Mikolay have to do with the Beulah Twins other than also being a woman?

I really thought it was the Katie from the Beulah Twins minus 20 pounds...sorry, wasn't trying to be a jackass here. I looked it up before but couldn't find anything, but if it's not the same person then I guess she's just a new talent in the business.

So glad you were around to smash me on this one, when I defended you 100 times on this board. But yeah, you got me.

thaskalos
03-27-2012, 02:52 PM
The rest of the field didn't amount to much, IMO...but even money was still a surprise.

The 5-horse was coming off a suspicious layoff though...

Parx is an acquired taste...

lamboguy
03-27-2012, 03:05 PM
the reason why i asked was by looking at the race you would have thought that the 5 horse would have been less than even money.

the reason why the differential in odds is that the 5 worked awful, and the 6 worked great. the monkey wrench in the race was that in the prior race #4 CATCH ME KAZ ran awful.

i was just trying to point something out to you about that race to show you knowing the right number does not always point you to the winner.

the little guy
03-27-2012, 03:21 PM
I really thought it was the Katie from the Beulah Twins minus 20 pounds...sorry, wasn't trying to be a jackass here. I looked it up before but couldn't find anything, but if it's not the same person then I guess she's just a new talent in the business.

So glad you were around to smash me on this one, when I defended you 100 times on this board. But yeah, you got me.

I wasn't smashing you. That's silly. I was just asking.

the little guy
03-27-2012, 03:29 PM
TLG

What do you think of Flat Bold now? That was the last time I watched your show and you hated him. I nearly fell off my chair. My lower chin dropped six feet. The crowd made him a 3/2 favorite as he won for fun with trouble.

Yep. That was not a good day for Serling.

Believe it or not, I am wrong about a lot of races. I do regret that Flat Bold opinion. If only I had picked him on top my ROI for 2012 on my top selection would be $2.19 instead of $2.18.

I knock plenty of favorites that win. I also knock more than a few that lose. If you actually played the horses, instead of criticizing those that do, you would know that horseplayers are frequently wrong.

castaway01
03-27-2012, 03:32 PM
I wasn't smashing you. That's silly. I was just asking.

Well, I thought it was the same person as the former Beulah twin but obviously not. She grew up in Illinois and started at Presque Isle (I don't watch that track so I wouldn't know). At any rate, she does a good job and hopefully will stay in the business.

the little guy
03-27-2012, 03:38 PM
Well, I thought it was the same person as the former Beulah twin but obviously not. She grew up in Illinois and started at Presque Isle (I don't watch that track so I wouldn't know). At any rate, she does a good job and hopefully will stay in the business.


I think Katie's fairly young, and I would guess much younger than the Beulah Twins.

lamboguy
03-27-2012, 03:40 PM
she started at HAWTHORNE

cj
03-27-2012, 03:58 PM
I think Katie's fairly young, and I would guess much younger than the Beulah Twins.
Both of them?

bigmack
03-27-2012, 04:09 PM
I think Katie's fairly young, and I would guess much younger than the Beulah Twins.
Katie is actually 33. She married Asmussen's asst. trainer, Hank Gensler.

When Googling the BTwins I ran across this post from Craigers. What an outrage. You're not gonna take that from him, is ya?

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/3_27_12_13_02_36.jpg

cj
03-27-2012, 04:34 PM
TLG

What do you think of Flat Bold now? That was the last time I watched your show and you hated him. I nearly fell off my chair. My lower chin dropped six feet. The crowd made him a 3/2 favorite as he won for fun with trouble.

Yep. That was not a good day for Serling.

Is that how you judge a day, by one selection on a card? Or are you just being an asshole...again?

speed
03-27-2012, 05:14 PM
It's funny how, when one says something like this about someone else, they wind up saying more about themself then the person they were attacking.

You've made your point...about yourself, again.

And my IGNORE list grows... :D

Perhaps the most accurate statement i have read to date.

lamboguy
03-27-2012, 05:39 PM
Perhaps the most accurate statement i have read to date.there must have been 10 people here that have explained to me how little i know, since i am quite gullible, i agree with them.

Light
03-27-2012, 05:42 PM
Believe it or not, I am wrong about a lot of races. I do regret that Flat Bold opinion. If only I had picked him on top my ROI for 2012 on my top selection would be $2.19 instead of $2.18.

I knock plenty of favorites that win. I also knock more than a few that lose. If you actually played the horses, instead of criticizing those that do, you would know that horseplayers are frequently wrong.

There is a big difference between getting beat by a horse you overlooked or could not fit into your selections as opposed to actually looking at a horse that is a major contender and declaring him a total non contender. Something off there in your capping.

Later that same day, in the 5th race you said of the 1/5 shot (that ran 4th), that if your viewers played someone else in that race, they were skating on very thin ice (or something to that effect) Again,my jaw dropped but not as far. That horse had some knocks against it and I did play the 20-1 shot that won (with real money). I give you credit for putting the winner 2nd in your selections but since you thought the 1/5 shot was a lock, can't see you betting him to win.Besides,you never even mentioned any of the other horses in that race in your commentary.

Sorry but I am not a big supporter of this kind of faulty analysis. I have nothing against you personally. As far as your ROI, I find it hard to believe without proof.

duncan04
03-27-2012, 05:50 PM
Geez light. You sure like to provoke people don't you? Seems like that is all you add to this forum :ThmbDown:

Light
03-27-2012, 05:51 PM
Just keeping them honest.

duncan04
03-27-2012, 05:52 PM
Just keeping them honest.

More like just being an ass

Light
03-27-2012, 05:54 PM
More like just being an ass

Explain

duncan04
03-27-2012, 05:58 PM
Explain

Well this and in the handicappers corner you acted like a know it all who is never wrong. :rolleyes:

Light
03-27-2012, 06:00 PM
Fox has a saying: fair and balanced. I think it's 100-1 in favor of TLG. So you want it 100-0?

thaskalos
03-27-2012, 06:08 PM
Just keeping them honest.
So...you have nothing against Serling, but his race analysis is faulty...and you have nothing against Beyer, but his contributions to the horseplayer have been insignificant.

I wonder...is there anyone in this game whom you feel totally positive about?

Just asking...

Light
03-27-2012, 06:14 PM
Why don't the moderators here make it perfectly clear that deviant opinions are not welcome. That this is not an open forum for any other opinions but those of the majority. I would have no problem conforming to those rules. Otherwise, I am not using profane language or telling lies. I am simply looking at the side everyone is ignoring. Not to put the person down but to get a more complete picture.

thaskalos
03-27-2012, 06:20 PM
You think it's reasonable to expect Serling's analysis to be faultless?

Why do you magnify his losing picks while ignoring his longshot winners?

Is that what you mean by "fair and balanced"?

Saratoga_Mike
03-27-2012, 06:22 PM
Why don't the moderators here make it perfectly clear that deviant opinions are not welcome. That this is not an open forum for any other opinions but those of the majority. I would have no problem conforming to those rules. Otherwise, I am not using profane language or telling lies. I am simply looking at the side everyone is ignoring. Not to put the person down but to get a more complete picture.

Give it a rest - you're resentful and jealous of both Andys - Beyer and Serling.

Light
03-27-2012, 06:32 PM
You think it's reasonable to expect Serling's analysis to be faultless?

Why do you magnify his losing picks while ignoring his longshot winners?

Is that what you mean by "fair and balanced"?


I'll answer your question with a question:

When you die and your life flashes before you and you stand in front of God on judgement day ,are you going to tell God, "why are you dwelling on the negative"?

I'm in no position to judge anyone. But I am entitled to like or dislike someone's work and present my reasons why. (assuming this is a mature open forum).

duncan04
03-27-2012, 06:34 PM
I'm in no position to judge anyone. But I am entitled to like or dislike someone's work and present my reasons why. (assuming this is a mature open forum).

It gets old after a while

Light
03-27-2012, 06:41 PM
Yeah but the there are countless threads that put TLG on a pedestal. You think that isn't older?

Light
03-27-2012, 06:45 PM
Any rate, I noticed that TLG had just responded to this thread and thought I'd catch him regarding his after thoughts of Flat Bold. That's all. So continue your praise of him. I'm done.

cj
03-27-2012, 07:10 PM
Any rate, I noticed that TLG had just responded to this thread and thought I'd catch him regarding his after thoughts of Flat Bold. That's all. So continue your praise of him. I'm done.

I told you his ROI was positive. His selections are posted every day. If you want proof, they were there. Do you really think Andy would post his ROI if he couldn't back it up, knowing that there are probably people here that could shoot him down if he was mistaken, or even lying?

To pick on one bad selection is just asinine. Most horseplayers are wrong a majority of the time. I know I am, and I am sure you are as well. I often shake my head at some of Andy's picks. Sometimes I'm right, but other times I'm shaking my head as the horse wins. We use different methods. I have learned when he picks a horse I've dismissed, I listen to what he has to say because I have missed something most likely.

There are not countless threads praising Serling. There are a few, and probably just as many dissenting ones. You just seem to hate the guy for whatever reason, and everyone but you can see it. You are done in this thread so don't bother responding. It will be dismissed quicker than a trainer objection.

The Bit
03-27-2012, 08:20 PM
Jealousy is a ...

Tom
03-27-2012, 09:19 PM
Fox has a saying: fair and balanced. I think it's 100-1 in favor of TLG. So you want it 100-0?

Start posting your selections before the races - every day - and shut everyone up. That would be fair - TLG makes his public.....ball's in your court.

Or, just post - right before the race - why TLG's selection is so bad...then we can all watch the race together, sitting in a semi-circle on the floor, Indian style, in our footed jammies, drinking hot cocoa and sing cumbya when the prices are posted.

tzipi
03-27-2012, 10:59 PM
TLG is awesome and always does a good job informing us NY players during the day. He's just giving his honest opinions and he does a good job with it IMO :ThmbUp:

Ocala Mike
03-27-2012, 11:19 PM
TLG is awesome and always does a good job informing us NY players during the day. He's just giving his honest opinions and he does a good job with it IMO :ThmbUp:

Agree with this 100%. I follow Andy on Twitter; his "night before" postings are the best.


Ocala Mike

Ocala Mike
03-27-2012, 11:22 PM
Start posting your selections before the races - every day - and shut everyone up. That would be fair - TLG makes his public.....ball's in your court.

Or, just post - right before the race - why TLG's selection is so bad...then we can all watch the race together, sitting in a semi-circle on the floor, Indian style, in our footed jammies, drinking hot cocoa and sing cumbya when the prices are posted.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Love that picture!


Ocala Mike

Canarsie
03-28-2012, 11:42 AM
Agree with this 100%. I follow Andy on Twitter; his "night before" postings are the best.


Ocala Mike


I follow him too and his tweets go into a separate stream with only a few others so I can find them easily. Last week had a bunch of computers to fix didn't have a chance to even look at the days races. He tweeted a horse and I bet them on the fly just to take a break for a few moments. Since I am posting this of course the horse won put and a guy on TVG called it a head scratcher. I'm not bashing them but there is a reason Serling has more followers then anyone on their network. Word of mouth spreads pretty quick about someone who has talent.

Seriously there must be good reason almost everyone in the industry praises and respects him maybe because he has a hard work ethic. He has stated it takes about four hours to cap a card that's a tremendous amount of time.

One more thing for light. The guy gives out horses and its a 100% certainty that the odds on that particular horse is diminished after doing so. So he is willing to take less of a price to share it with his followers on a consistent basis. Not many people can do that and be successful it impacts an ROI.


I know what his rebuttal will be and that will be he gets better prices when he's wrong. Of course you have to pick the winner as Tom said POST EM UP.

aharon5741
03-29-2012, 02:18 AM
Today Andy basically gave out a cold exacta that paid $79 in the third at AQU. Along with Maggie's excellent paddock coverage I rarely look at the PPs for AQU, so I'm free to sit back enjoy the coverage and pick a good spot or two.

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/quick/AQU032812USA3-EQB.html

bigmack
03-29-2012, 02:38 AM
I rarely look at the PPs for AQU, so I'm free to sit back enjoy the coverage and pick a good spot or two.
How will you know when it's a good spot or two?

classhandicapper
03-29-2012, 06:35 PM
Light,

I sort of understand where you coming from, but IMO you are being beyond silly about this.

I hate when "I" have a strong negative opinion about a favorite (or positive opinion about a long shot) but turn out to be very wrong. It usually means there was something a lot of other people understood about the horse that I didn't.

If I get a trip/pace wrong, I can deal with that because that's a somewhat unpredictable aspect of the game. But to totally misunderstand a horse's ability and recent performances and then watch it win when I hated it or vice versa drives me nuts.

But you can't nitpick all of them.

I don't know anyone that doesn't have a few holes in their game no matter how comprehensive their handicapping and how hard they work. As long as you get enough of them right to profit, you are doing a lot of things right. Andy seems to be in that category.

IMO fair and balanced is to say he's a terrific handicapper with a few holes in his game just like the rest of us, perhaps just a few different holes than we have.

cj
06-03-2012, 05:25 PM
$58 winner on top for Serling today.

JustRalph
06-03-2012, 06:43 PM
$58 winner on top for Serling today.

I bet against that horse, and my horse got scratched at the gate. So for just a second i thought about moving to Andy's horse.........of course i just passed :bang:

Nice call Andy! Tweets and all :ThmbUp:

1GCFAN
06-03-2012, 07:24 PM
I use his analysis but not necessarily his selections. He insisted McPeek's runner in Sunday's 6th was way over bet and gave some background on his previous races which I hadn't seen. I tossed McPeek in the exacta and all but one tri. Turnedout to be a smart play. I like Maggies
analysis as well.

classhandicapper
06-03-2012, 07:33 PM
That was a great pick.

I didn't make a play in the race, but in hindsight a couple of the horses that looked better were from really low percentage barns and the favorable trainer move plus a couple of back races put the winner in the mix.

No one knows everything about everything, but any comments suggesting Andy is anything other than excellent would be preposterous at this point.

lamboguy
06-03-2012, 07:40 PM
great pick

1GCFAN
06-03-2012, 09:37 PM
I ignored his call on the $58 horse and keyed the 29-1 second place horse with the third fourth fifth and Levine horses. Sure wish I had been paying attention.

Rapid Grey
06-04-2012, 12:38 AM
I ignored his call on the $58 horse and keyed the 29-1 second place horse with the third fourth fifth and Levine horses. Sure wish I had been paying attention.

Did the same, thought that the :4: 's race two back put it in the exotics and the price was there. Didn't hear what Serling said about the :8: (knew it was his top pick) but I couldn't bet it off of the form, looked at a little deeper when I got home, looks like a horse that runs better from outer posts and the March 18th race was better than it looks.

When they scratched the :3: I should have blindly used Andy's pick, would have least had the exacta.

Figaro
06-04-2012, 01:29 AM
Newbie here, can somebody please post a link to Andy's selections? Thanks!

PaceAdvantage
06-04-2012, 02:12 AM
Newbie here, can somebody please post a link to Andy's selections? Thanks!

http://www.nyra.com/Talkinghorses/index.html

http://www.twitter.com/#!/andyserling

JustRalph
06-04-2012, 04:02 AM
Newbie here, can somebody please post a link to Andy's selections? Thanks!

Following on twitter during the card is useful for Contemporaneous info

@andyserling

lsosa54
06-04-2012, 06:15 AM
I see 4 tweets from yesterday but no selections. Last selection tweet ended up in divorce from Silent Thunder on Saturday. What did I miss?

Canarsie
06-04-2012, 08:22 AM
Andy and Maggie had a very good day yesterday. I always leave the NYRA audio feed on its a great listen. Those two are the only horse racing direct messages I get to my phone from twitter. I always throw a few sheckels on his individudal racing pick tweets its probably my highest ROI angle. :eek:

He was really excited after the race my hunch is he nailed the P4 sure hope he did.

mistergee
06-04-2012, 12:36 PM
I predict Sundays will always be the best days because I have been following along every saturday. Anyway glad he did well and keep up the good work

JustRalph
06-04-2012, 03:51 PM
I see 4 tweets from yesterday but no selections. Last selection tweet ended up in divorce from Silent Thunder on Saturday. What did I miss?

He doesn't always make selections on twitter/but often does. He is doing this I assume from his phone or computer before and after his video spots during the races. It's well worth following.

This went out before the race mentioned above:

Andy Serling ‏@andyserling
I'm hoping the trainer/rider change can get #8 Briolette back to his race three back which gives him a shot at a big price.

lsosa54
06-04-2012, 09:53 PM
Thanks Ralph. For some reason, all his tweets aren't showing up in my home feed but when I go to Andy's full profile, I see the tweet you are referring to and a bunch more.

Same thing with Maggie. Definitely following her but no tweets are pullling into my home feed, which has a lot of other sports stuff.

Weird - I'll have to check out the help section.

JustRalph
06-04-2012, 10:20 PM
This happens to me when using the plain web link. Try using one of the many apps for twitter. I suspect it has to do with browser caching

Clear your cache if u want to use the basic web version of twitter

andicap
06-05-2012, 09:33 AM
$58 winner on top for Serling today.

Serling is in the Zone!

Figaro
06-06-2012, 12:07 PM
http://www.nyra.com/Talkinghorses/index.html



OK, I'm on this very link right now and don't see any video streaming with Andy? What do I have to do?

PhantomOnTour
06-06-2012, 12:09 PM
Go to the NYRA site and scroll down to Talking Horses

Figaro
06-06-2012, 12:14 PM
Go to the NYRA site and scroll down to Talking Horses

I've done exactly that and clicked on the picture of "Talking Horses". Does not seem to include a video streaming link. :confused:


edit: never mind it is working now. Thanks! :ThmbUp:

Grits
06-07-2012, 06:11 AM
He's getting the selections up very early. This is always a good thing. On the ball.

atlasaxis
06-16-2012, 01:19 PM
Andy starts the day off with a 12-1 winner! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

atlasaxis
06-16-2012, 02:00 PM
and continues with R3 winner @ 11-1!! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

classhandicapper
06-16-2012, 02:13 PM
I felt great for coming up with the winner in the 3rd also (who was lucky to win), but Andy is handicapping the way Kevin Durant plays basketball. You simply watch and marvel.

Figaro
06-16-2012, 02:55 PM
Andy starts the day off with a 12-1 winner! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

and continues with R3 winner @ 11-1!! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:


Watched both of these winning picks, but I had no money in my online account at the time. Heading to the OTB right now to make a deposit and hopefully it won't be too late to reap the benefits of his winning selections today. ;)

JimG
06-16-2012, 07:34 PM
Watched both of these winning picks, but I had no money in my online account at the time. Heading to the OTB right now to make a deposit and hopefully it won't be too late to reap the benefits of his winning selections today. ;)

Nothing like missing the wedding and attending the funeral.

Nice job Andy!

Jim

SansuiSC
09-09-2012, 04:05 PM
Again older thread same news, didn't want to make new thread.
Andy is 6/6 so far today in his selections on a 10 race card. 4 to go as I type.

1st - $8.50
2nd - $2.60
3rd - $3.30
4th - $4.60
5th - $24.40 $156 pick 4
6th - $3.20

cj
09-09-2012, 04:09 PM
Again older thread same news, didn't want to make new thread.
Andy is 6/6 so far today in his selections on a 10 race card. 4 to go as I type.

1st - $8.50
2nd - $2.60
3rd - $3.30
4th - $4.60
5th - $24.40 $156 pick 4
6th - $3.20

You aren't supposed to mention a perfect game while it is happening.

SansuiSC
09-09-2012, 04:16 PM
:lol: he got a run for his money to the top of stretch with Pink Traffic in the 7th.

SansuiSC
09-09-2012, 04:21 PM
We'll see if he stops by the thread and says if people were moving away from him :D

SansuiSC
09-09-2012, 05:47 PM
:ThmbUp: 7 winners out of 10 for the day. Nice job TLG! :ThmbUp:

lefthandlow
09-09-2012, 06:23 PM
he's the best !!! works hard .

At my otb the gang only bets his picks and they win

me too

LL

Stillriledup
03-03-2013, 04:26 PM
Big Ups to Serling, he featured Let Me Entertain U on Trips and Traps recently and made her his top pick.

Good stuff.

:ThmbUp: