Provided Numbers

[bob60566]

As I handicap with my three preset angles.
Then rate Bris first top five rated Power play with my three angles for selections.
My point is is there superior numbers out there to give me a edge.
My angles at most only give one per race and sometime two as i only bet to win and dutch if more than one it is the confidence level i am talking about with given numbers for wagering.
I not do not use a computer for my initial selections but looking to enhance them with the numbers or is Bris top five the way to go .
Also i am not Speed/ Class or Pace handicapper
Open to conversation.
Mac:)

[acorn54]

i don't know about others that will chime in here but using the publicly available numbers from bris, i have not been able to find any combination of those numbers in their different categories of early-late pace,class, and speed, that generates a positive roi.
this is based on data going back to november 2004.

[bob60566]

i don't know about others that will chime in here but using the publicly available numbers from bris, i have not been able to find any combination of those numbers in their different categories of early-late pace,class, and speed, that generates a positive roi.
this is based on data going back to november 2004.

I see your point
With all of the above I am looking for # to supplemt my selections which inculde your comments.
Mac:)

[Kirbyjrt]

i don't know about others that will chime in here but using the publicly available numbers from bris, i have not been able to find any combination of those numbers in their different categories of early-late pace,class, and speed, that generates a positive roi.
this is based on data going back to november 2004.

I agree with you. I have not been successful with any combination of those numbers either.

[HUSKER55]

bris data is database driven based on their own formulas (or algorithms). When you are using their data they are saying that based on the past experience of (1000000) races like todays races horse #x should enjoy a rate of 125 compared to the field. The second horse could be 124 which is only 1 point.

That is not the same as a static system. Also in a 6 horse field they are only throwing out one horse.

Also Bris does not tell you how their numbers are developed which means their is no way to verify how solid a pick really is.

There are alot of database guys and gals here who can help. I am a static player myself.

[pondman]

There are alot of database guys and gals here who can help. I am a static player myself.

And there are a number a database guys and gals who will tell you rating systems can be a big waste of money and time, because ratings do not reflect horse racing. Most horses will not continue to run and run. They improve and decline. It's important to spot the improvements and avoid the declines. And sometimes get lucky. And sometimes shake your head and say, what the heck was that. Hopefully, now and then you hit one big enough to make it worthwhile. Rather than focus on brisnet, i'd rather see a person focus on hitting the big ones every once in a while.

[Dave Schwartz]

And there are a number a database guys and gals who will tell you rating systems can be a big waste of money and time, because ratings do not reflect horse racing.

Pondman,

Those would be the guys that were not successful at making such a thing work.

Meanwhile, the ones who are making money with such an approach (some very serious money) would tell you that it is the only way to go.

I would say that it depends upon who you are (and want to be) as a player. That is, what is your true level of commitment? I had a telephone conversation with someone over the weekend who asked me if I thought he could move from being a winning player to a whale with a bigger bankroll. My answer was "No."

I suggest that just because someone could not get a database approach working for themselves is not proof that it doesn't work. It clearly DOES work for some.

Conversely, it would be wrong of me to disparage using trip notes or key races to handicap just because I have no interest (or ability) in translating those approaches into profit.


Just my opinion.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[thaskalos]

My contention is that we are all enslaved by certain characteristics ingrained deep within our nature...which we may be unable to overcome.

Some of us view this game as a math problem waiting to be solved, just as the theory of gravity was always there, waiting for Issac Newton.

Others view this game as a great mystery...best left to grizzled detectives in rumpled raincoats, who use nothing more than great intuition -- along with a pad and a pencil.

To find out who is correct, we would have to conduct our own investigation...into the bankrolls and betting habits of those involved.

Since we can't do that...I think it's best that we give everyone the benefit of the doubt.

Those who are deceiving themselves will find out soon enough...

[bob60566]

bris data is database driven based on their own formulas (or algorithms). When you are using their data they are saying that based on the past experience of (1000000) races like todays races horse #x should enjoy a rate of 125 compared to the field. The second horse could be 124 which is only 1 point.

That is not the same as a static system. Also in a 6 horse field they are only throwing out one horse.

Also Bris does not tell you how their numbers are developed which means their is no way to verify how solid a pick really is.

There are alot of database guys and gals here who can help. I am a static player myself.

Very good poin,t If someone could break down there numbers and give out the winning % for each race and maybe the card and meet.
Bottom line you make your own selections then assign someone elses win % to your selection .

Mac:)

[Light]

I not do not use a computer for my initial selections but looking to enhance them with the numbers or is Bris top five the way to go



My last 3 year stats using Bris is their top 5 ranked Prime Power horses win 90% of the time,which is probably equivalent to the winning percentage of the top 5 public betting choices.In studying the various categories of data Bris offers,I've found Prime Power to be one of the poorest for ROI.

[bob60566]

My last 3 year stats using Bris is their top 5 ranked Prime Power horses win 90% of the time,which is probably equivalent to the winning percentage of the top 5 public betting choices.In studying the various categories of data Bris offers,I've found Prime Power to be one of the poorest for ROI.

Yes
I only use it for ranking the pp before handicapping but you have to be aware of the public choice horse that wins as the top rated numbers in Prime Power top three.When you get below six in prime power they fall of the cliff most of time.

mac:)

[Dave Schwartz]

We have a couple of factors like that. They correlate so closely with the tote board as to not be able to make money from them despite their high hit rates. However, with a little regression, you can use those factors to make a killer "how-the-public-will-bet" line.

[pondman]

Pondman,

I suggest that just because someone could not get a database approach working for themselves is not proof that it doesn't work. It clearly DOES work for some..

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

I agree with this.

I wouldn't approach this game without data. A person with years of data ( and experience) will run circles around someone who pays $2,95 per card for speed ratings and doesn't understand the margins and limits. Plus you've got to have a lifestyle to play, when there is a valuable play.

If a whale approach me, I could give them an algorithm that would cover 100 horses a year. Do you know what would happen? They'd still lose, because they don't know the game, would refuse to be consistent, skip horses because the beyers wasn't high enough, double up on losses, and triple up on wins. I've done this before (not for money), and I've seen the results.

[pondman]

Those would be the guys that were not successful at making such a thing work.

Not true. It's the contrarians that survive, not the 2-1 players.

[pondman]

To find out who is correct, we would have to conduct our own investigation...into the bankrolls and betting habits of those involved.



I do believe there are a few individual who can find hidden pace value, or hidden acceleration value, and know when and where to play these. Likewise there are a few individuals who understand connections, works, breaking maidens, and shipping, which are difficult if not impossible to quantify. Both will find value, which is not apparent to the herd. They couldn't survive if they didn't.

But the best of the best don't rely on academic pedigrees. They are rather unimpressive looking and speaking. And if they can't keep it simple, then they probably are offering you smoke and mirrors.

[TrifectaMike]

We have a couple of factors like that. They correlate so closely with the tote board as to not be able to make money from them despite their high hit rates. However, with a little regression, you can use those factors to make a killer "how-the-public-will-bet" line.

How the public will bet and how the public perceives a race is paramount.

In the "create an odd lines" thread , I described a method on how to generate an odds line soley on one factor, projected speed ratings. You can also generate an odds line based on the last race speed rating (by simulation). The last race speed rating odds line will correlate extremely well with the "how the public should bet line".

The odds lines are different. In fact, one can look at the projected speed ratings versus the last race speed ratings to determine improving or declining form... avoid some short priced horses and nail some longshots as well as being able to determine the competiveness of the race based on number of horse improving or declining.

Mike (Dr Beav)

[Light]

I think the odds line depends on what pace line or factors the general public is likely to gravitate to.

The overlay bet is finding legitimate pace lines or factors that the public generally does not gravitate to.

For example, the majority of the times the public over lays a horse that is switching from a route to a sprint. I'm talking distance switchers with very real ability to do that, not every horse doing that. The public simply doesn't know how to handicap these types and never will. I can always count on these types being overlays. Case in point was the last race at Aqu on Sun 2/26. 7/2 ML went off at 6-1. In this case I thought the ML was way too low on this horse. The public odds were more true.(BTW,the horse won)

[thaskalos]

Along with horses switching distances and horses going up in class, there are two more cases where the "public" seems to underestimate the winning chances of horses who otherwise qualify as legitimate contenders; horses who ran an inexcusably bad race last time out and yet remain in the same class today...and those who won last out at big odds -- especially if they are stretch runners.

Too much emphasis is placed on the last race in the former case...while, in the latter case, the horses' last races are not valued as much as they should be.

I will readily ignore an otherwise sharp horse's last bad race -- whether it's excusable or not -- assuming it is not laid-off in the interim...and I won't hesitate to bet on a horse who won last out at high odds -- assuming he fits the pace profile and the conditions of the race.

[bob60566]

Along with horses switching distances and horses going up in class, there are two more cases where the "public" seems to underestimate the winning chances of horses who otherwise qualify as legitimate contenders; horses who ran an inexcusably bad race last time out and yet remain in the same class today...and those who won last out at big odds -- especially if they are stretch runners.

Too much emphasis is placed on the last race in the former case...while, in the latter case, the horses' last races are not valued as much as they should be.

I will readily ignore an otherwise sharp horse's last bad race -- whether it's excusable or not -- assuming it is not laid-off in the interim...and I won't hesitate to bet on a horse who won last out at high odds -- assuming he fits the pace profile and the conditions of the race.

I agree on the bad race i call it something else to add to the bad race when new jock gets on for the bad race and stays on for todays race and bonus if he has rode the horse in the past.

Mac:)

[valueguy]

According to stats i have seen some where ,the top 4 horses win 79-81%
of the time .This is better than most software programs.
In fact its good enough to use as an order of preference seperator.
According to Bris,a 3 point advantage for the top horse win 36% of the time.
6 point advantage wins 42% of the time.As a stand alone method the ROI
is very poor but used as a tool to determine false or vulnerable fav,s it can be
pretty useful.It,s also good at pointing out chaos races.

[TurfRuler]

#1 odds 2-1 speed rating 98 won last 5 races including GR I’s

#3 odds 3-1 speed rating 97 won last 2 including Graded Stakes

#4 odds 6-1 speed rating 95 lost last race but won race prior in Stakes

#5 odds 10-1 Graded Stakes runner

#7 odds 15-1 Graded Stakes runner

The play 1-3-4.

Switch it at all times 5-7-(1-3-4) in all classes and distances.

[bob60566]

#1 odds 2-1 speed rating 98 won last 5 races including GR I’s

#3 odds 3-1 speed rating 97 won last 2 including Graded Stakes

#4 odds 6-1 speed rating 95 lost last race but won race prior in Stakes

#5 odds 10-1 Graded Stakes runner

#7 odds 15-1 Graded Stakes runner

The play 1-3-4.

Switch it at all times 5-7-(1-3-4) in all classes and distances.

My thoughts on Graded stakes is that money talks and the odds dictate I watch these races with no bet and enjoy.
Mac:ThmbUp: