Optional Claiming Races

[FiveWide]

So what is your view on a horse that is entered for the tag in an optional claiming race even though he/she could have chosen to be entered as non claimer. Do you view this as a negative or neutral.

There was a horse entered today at FG OC 50k N1X and clearly had not won an allowance yet was entered for the tag. The horse finished 2nd to last.

Also, if a horse wins an OC race does that count toward his future allowance wins?


Thanks in advance.
-Five

[Robert Goren]

As general rule you can toss any horse that is entered to be claimed. There are few tracks where that isn't true, but not many and no major tracks where entered for a price is a good thing.

[CincyHorseplayer]

If the horse doesn't have to be entered for a tag because it's eligible for the allowance condition then it's negative,unless that barn is trying to cash out totally.A few do.

[Tom]

As general rule you can toss any horse that is entered to be claimed. There are few tracks where that isn't true, but not many and no major tracks where entered for a price is a good thing.

Not true.

[tbwinner]

Not true.

Agree, there are quite a few horses on the GP, NYRA, even HAW/AP circuit that are not quite stakes-quality but can tear it up in the AOC races. At least from what I've seen.

[tbwinner]

So what is your view on a horse that is entered for the tag in an optional claiming race even though he/she could have chosen to be entered as non claimer. Do you view this as a negative or neutral.

There was a horse entered today at FG OC 50k N1X and clearly had not won an allowance yet was entered for the tag. The horse finished 2nd to last.

Also, if a horse wins an OC race does that count toward his future allowance wins?


Thanks in advance.
-Five

I usually see it as neutral. You usually see this from quite shrewd barns actually, they claim a horse for 15k-20k for example, think highly of him/her, bump up to the 50k n1x Optional and enter in for claim, so if he/she wins they'd still have a n1x condition to run for ...

[FiveWide]

I usually see it as neutral. You usually see this from quite shrewd barns actually, they claim a horse for 15k-20k for example, think highly of him/her, bump up to the 50k n1x Optional and enter in for claim, so if he/she wins they'd still have a n1x condition to run for ...

So if they are entered for a claim and win they are still eligible for the condition later? But if they're entered for no claim and win they won't be eligible for the conditions later?


-Five

[FiveWide]

Not true.

I think Robert was replying in context to my original question which was how do you view a horse entered for a claim but are still eligible for allowance conditions. I don't think he meant to toss any horse entered as a claim no matter whether he met allowance conditions or not.


I know I don't automatically toss claimers if they've met the allowance conditions. But today was the first time I've seen where a horse was still eligible but was entered for the tag. Guess I'll pay closer attention from now on. Before I just assumed if a horse was in for the tag he already met the allowance conditions. This one stood out because there were only 2 pp races.

-Five

[johnhannibalsmith]

So if they are entered for a claim and win they are still eligible for the condition later? But if they're entered for no claim and win they won't be eligible for the conditions later?


-Five

The condition in question is N1xOc, which is non-winners of a race OTHER THAN maiden, CLAIMING, starter (and in some places, trial) OR optional claiming price. So yes, if you are elgibile for the 1x condition and enter for the claiming price and win, you are considered a winner under the claiming clause, retaining elgibility for the 1x condition. If you are not entered for the price and you win, then you have won the race under allowance conditions and are no longer eligible for the allowance condition, but could run for the optional claiming price.

As tbwinner points out, because in many places the "straight" 1xor2L condition is more common than the one that also includes the optional claiming clause, it can sensible to run for the claiming price if offered and then retain the allowance condition to give you another condition to run in if you end up at a point in the book or at a circuit that doesn't offer an optional claiming clause or the optional price isn't high enough.

[tbwinner]

So if they are entered for a claim and win they are still eligible for the condition later? But if they're entered for no claim and win they won't be eligible for the conditions later?


-Five

Right, unless I am very mistaken, if the horse is eligible for the n1x part of the condition but chooses to enter in for the tag condition, and wins, it will be eligible for a n1x allowance still.

[Linny]

If the horse doesn't have to be entered for a tag because it's eligible for the allowance condition then it's negative,unless that barn is trying to cash out totally.A few do.


If a horse wins for the tag he keeps the condition. Enter a NW2x/$30k for the tag, and win and next time you can run back without the tag. If someone claims him, then they get a horse with a condition. In many places (NY for example) the 3yo Opt/Cl's are very overvalued. A NW1x typically has a $75k tag. Really??? Few of them are $75k horses, so enter for the tag and if someone claims him you are usually better off as you have sold an overpriced asset.

As for not playing the "tag" runners, I disagree. Many times the horses in for the tag are much better and have run through conditions many times over. A horse that would be eligible for a (hypothetical) NW5x is a tough customer against (say) NW2x runners.

[CincyHorseplayer]

If a horse wins for the tag he keeps the condition. Enter a NW2x/$30k for the tag, and win and next time you can run back without the tag. If someone claims him, then they get a horse with a condition. In many places (NY for example) the 3yo Opt/Cl's are very overvalued. A NW1x typically has a $75k tag. Really??? Few of them are $75k horses, so enter for the tag and if someone claims him you are usually better off as you have sold an overpriced asset.

As for not playing the "tag" runners, I disagree. Many times the horses in for the tag are much better and have run through conditions many times over. A horse that would be eligible for a (hypothetical) NW5x is a tough customer against (say) NW2x runners.

I play the horses who have beat the condition all the time.I get that.What I'm saying is that if a barn has a younger horse eligible for the allowance condition and they want to keep the horse,they won't enter it for a tag because they want to beat the condition twice.They believe the horse can progress through the next condition soon too.Some stables don't care and approach it all with the payday mentality as you outlined,but not if they truly believe in the horse IMO.If younger and/or lightly raced the tag is usually negative,if an older multiple winner the tag is a positive.If these older,salty types are coming off a layoff or have tailed off they usually aren't cranked.I love the younger non tagged horses stepping up.

The restricted to 2's and 3's pretty much need to be separated from the conversaton here IMO because it's totally a different set of circumstances.

[badcompany]

I fall in between Goren and Tom. I wouldn't auto toss the horse, but, I do regard it as a negative factor.

[Robert Fischer]

It almost has to be a case by case basis.

The horse in question wasn't a contender. At 9-1 he was no overlay.
Nobody wants to spend 50k on a 3yo like that. He may as well run for the tag.

[Fastracehorse]

in these optional claimers if you tag them

they might give the horse a 2 lb allowance for every $2500 shaved off the maximum claiming price

i've seen horses entered for 57,500 in 62,500 optional claimers

there are horses tagged for 25,000 in (25,000 -30,000) n2L - they must get a weight break

and weight has implications for handicapping

fffastt

[plainolebill]

I usually see it as neutral. You usually see this from quite shrewd barns actually, they claim a horse for 15k-20k for example, think highly of him/her, bump up to the 50k n1x Optional and enter in for claim, so if he/she wins they'd still have a n1x condition to run for ...

I've seen this happen a number of times in Socal. Spawr and Mitchell will do it for sure.

[Robert Goren]

All you have to do is to go Equibase and start looking at charts of OC racing. If you do, you will see very few are won by horses entered to be claimed. I used to look for a horse that won at this condition, moved up and was now dropping back to this level and was running for tag because it had to in order to run. I found out the hard way these horse are not good bets. What I have found to be a decent bet sometimes is horse that was entered to be claimed in an OC race last out and is now running a straight claimer for the same tag. The only way I would bet a horse entered in for tag in an OC at most tracks is if it won an OC while running for a tag at the same level in its last race. You can bet them all you want, it is your money. But if you do, I think you will have less of it after the race is run most of the time.

[Tom]

From 12/1/10 to 1/28/12, 2441 AOC races.
868 won by horses in for a tag.

35.6%
Average payoff - $11.23

[Robert Goren]

From 12/1/10 to 1/28/12, 2441 AOC races.
868 won by horses in for a tag.

35.6%
Average payoff - $11.23 That is a pretty % of winners. What was the % of starters and what was the ROI if you bet them all? How does it compare with the ROI of those starting without a tag? I would be interested to know. I don't have a data base and just eye ball results. I might be wrong, it wouldn't be the first time. But from I have seen the claiming prices are too low when compared to the class of horse that isn't running for a tag.

[Tom]

I'll check out the other stuff tonight.
My way of looking at them is that if the Alw horses are proven losers at the level, I look to sharp or consistent claimers - I prefer a couple of recent wins or a significant drop, or a horse that won the condition last time and comes back for the tag today.

[Robert Fischer]

these races are a mixed bag.

the race in question yesterday was restricted for 3yo. There was one horse in the race who "had" to run for a tag. All others had the option. No weight off for a tag
(for that specific race condition) - weight was off ALL horses for -3lbs. Had they won recently this year, they would in effect have picked up 3lbs the way that condition worked.

So you have the horse that had to run for a tag. He ended up an underlay. Immediately he was worth capping because of the chance that his moving through the conditions meant something. IIRC he won that condition buster at what amounted to a weaker race. Too bad.
Then you had All others. Including our horse in question(the only one who chose TAG). In reality several should have run for a tag because most if not all(well an argue could be made for a couple) weren't worth 50k.
Occasionally you will see a horse opt for a tag, who is there to earn some loot. He could be running in allowance, he could be running in higher claimers. Maybe he thinks this class is weak (especially restricted to 3yo), maybe he couldn't find an alw or high claimer on the turf(like yesterday's race)... the list goes on

[Robert Goren]

I'll check out the other stuff tonight.
My way of looking at them is that if the Alw horses are proven losers at the level, I look to sharp or consistent claimers - I prefer a couple of recent wins or a significant drop, or a horse that won the condition last time and comes back for the tag today. I eagerly await your numbers on this. I may have to change my view of OCs. It would not be the first time I have changed the way I handicap.

[maddog42]

From 12/1/10 to 1/28/12, 2441 AOC races.
868 won by horses in for a tag.

35.6%
Average payoff - $11.23

Too little info. It doesn't tell us if they are winning their fair share. It would seem they are not an auto-toss.

[Tom]

That was all it was intended to do.

[Linny]

Tom's stats prove that they can win when in for the tag, you still have to find the right one.
In statebreds in NY unless you run into a sharp up and comer from a big outfit the ones in for the tags at the Snw2x/$25k level are usualloy the better stock.

There are two parallel conversations here though. One is horses in for the tag and the other is horses eligible for the condition AND in with a tag. In the latter, I look at other details before counting him out. If the tag is high relative to the condition (as often happens w/3yo's) or if the horse has won alot of money and the owners deal mainly is "better" stock I assume that they would be happy to lose the horse. Remember, to someone dropping a claim slip, a horse with a condition is more valuable. If I can claim him and run right back at the same level without a tag on him next out, that is a bonus.

[Capper Al]

From 12/1/10 to 1/28/12, 2441 AOC races.
868 won by horses in for a tag.

35.6%
Average payoff - $11.23

Tom,

What database do you use? Is there a subscription fee?

[pondman]

As general rule you can toss any horse that is entered to be claimed. There are few tracks where that isn't true, but not many and no major tracks where entered for a price is a good thing.

I'm with you on this one, at least within my own play. A high end connection will drop their horse into the soft spot into the allowance side of the race. It's especially true on a distance shipper. Not saying the claimers don't win. I just won't play a high end horse up for sale..

[pondman]

In statebreds in NY unless you run into a sharp up and comer from a big outfit
.

I'd go the other way and say a dull looking, down and outer from a high end connection, especially if they are leaving N.Y., can result in cashing the high dollar ticket, over a horse in for a tag.

Only experience handicappers are going to look at the conditions. Most of the crowd looks at it's last speed rating and doesn't have any concept of conditions or class.

[Linny]

Unless there is a sharp looking type like a Lovely Lil or Ava K or Haynesfield going through the NY conditions, I always favor the experience and back class of the old NY breds in for the tag.

[MadWorld]

Unless there is a sharp looking type like a Lovely Lil or Ava K or Haynesfield going through the NY conditions, I always favor the experience and back class of the old NY breds in for the tag.

I agree with this. Especially in state bred races, a maiden race or n1x can be so weak that the claimers have a big advantage.

[Cholly]

Today the 7th at AQ was one of these N1X/OC75 races. Stanley Hough entered Panthro for the tag when he still had this condition left and didn’t have to be exposed. Maybe Hough was ready to sell him, or maybe he thought he could save the condition, grab the winner’s check, and still run back in another N1X race.

R. Dutrow/Sullivan Lane Stables thought they saw $75K worth and claimed him. That’s an expensive claim, but the horse is still eligible for NY-bred-N2x, and open-company N1X without being exposed.

[Linny]

Andy S suggested and I agree that since Hough is known for always being willing to sell, that the horse may have had a pending sale (for more money) that fell through because of vetting. Now, every horse has some "issues" but there is no vetting for claiming. I wonder if the potential buyer wasn't a Dutrow client? Were there more than one claim slips dropped? These things bring out the "nosey" in me.