Saturday Tampa Bay race 9 discussion

[Capper Al]

My app said any of 10 horses could win this race. After 3pm on Saturday when races have been submitted for the PA contest, lets talk about this race. Save your notes. The race is at 6 pm, so we could do a little before and after discussion. See you at 3 pm, if you are interested.

Ciao

[garyscpa]

Are you going to give us any polytheistic picks?

[Capper Al]

Are you going to give us any polytheistic picks?

Okay, I'll do both-- one set of picks with my app and the other polytheistic picks.

[Capper Al]

Danny Holmes would call this a class only play with only one exception made for a lone early speed horse. There is one lone early speed, the #5, but according to Randy Giles' method the early speed should collapse. So we're back to class for Holmes' method. For class I have

7, 8, 10, 6, and 9 in that order.

The median value is 7 in a 13 horse field, adding one is 8, so any horse not in the top 8 speed ratings will be eliminated, not in Holmes method. For speed:

Horse number:Speed ranking-> 7:5, 8:2, 10:10, 6:4, and 9:8.

The #10 is eliminated on speed.

Looking at form I have some doubts about #7, but not enough to eliminate him. I'll demote him one spot, also not in Holmes.

What I end up with is 8-7-6-9 using class as suggested by Holmes.

[Capper Al]

I'll use class, pace, and class since we are talking a turf route.

Top two class horses that I have are 7 and 8. Top pace that I have is 8, since 8 is a class play we'll look at the second pace- 2. With the class horses, I have some doubt about the 7 horse, but not enough to eliminate him. I'll make the 8 the top class because of this doubt and because the 8 is also the top pace horse. So for class-pace-class, I end up with 8-2-7.

#8 rates again based on my data. Remember these are based on my class, my speed, and my pace figures plus my assertions on the #7 form. Other handicappers using the same Polytheistic approach of class-pace-class will more than likely come up with different selections.

Poly 8-2-7

[Kirbyjrt]

Twinspires, no handicapping, using the top 3 computer class pace picks.

Class-Pace-Class
:8: :2: :10:

[PICSIX]

On turf, plenty of speed in here so focus on stalkers and closers. ;) :ThmbUp:

[Kirbyjrt]

On turf, plenty of speed in here so focus on stalkers and closers. ;) :ThmbUp:

You looking at Allie's Event to catch them late?

[PICSIX]

You looking at Allie's Event to catch them late?

Exactly! :ThmbUp:

[pondman]

The only horse worth a look under my madness:

Hoofit

Got kicked around by broncos and much better in the last 2. If the crowd ignores it...

[PICSIX]

The only horse worth a look under my madness:

Hoofit

Got kicked around by broncos and much better in the last 2. If the crowd ignores it...

Is this an example of looking at owner intent?

Thanks,

Mike

[pondman]

Is this an example of looking at owner intent?

Thanks,

Mike

And to be annoying to speed heads. It doesn't meet all of my check offs. Don't like the Prm works, would have prefered a local work. But if the crowd give me a double digit shot...

[Wiley]

Don't like the Prm works, would have prefered a local work.
Don't think I would hold this against him, not sure if Tampa opens the turf course up much for works, at least I can't recall seeing many listed. Kind of like him given a price the horse might be worth a stab, much trouble in his last two, second back, distance might be a question, did not really get a chance to see if he can finish in his last. Homeister knows the track and hopefully gets him in a clear path to make a clean run.

[Kirbyjrt]

Call me crazy, but I want El Commodore in my exotics. 3 for 5 at Tampa. Daniel Coa as Jockey. I know it doesn't have the speed as some of the others. won 2 of last 3. in the OC62500, broke thru early, was leading at the 1/2 and was stopped at the 3/4 mark. Really would have liked to see him run that race through, but, this is a long shot I want in my super. I like the last 3 WO's also. Just a hunch here, but something keeps bringing me back to this horse so I have to go with it.


16Feb Tam 4f ft :47 B 1/25 04Feb Tam 4f ft :48 B 2/58 28Jan Tam 4f ft :48 B 3/59 06Jan

[Robert Fischer]

nice race Al Cap :ThmbUp:

a hell of a race

I'll try to contribute some analysis if I can get an opening.

[Capper Al]

Twinspires, no handicapping, using the top 3 computer class pace picks.

Class-Pace-Class
:8: :2: :10:

Thanks. This is good info.

[Capper Al]

On turf, plenty of speed in here so focus on stalkers and closers. ;) :ThmbUp:

#11 is a good horse. Before the 13 was scratched, there were 10 contenders in this race. Now we have 9 contenders according to my app.

[Capper Al]

The only horse worth a look under my madness:

Hoofit

Got kicked around by broncos and much better in the last 2. If the crowd ignores it...

The 6 could surprise. I rank him fourth in this field, and he could get a price.

[Capper Al]

Call me crazy, but I want El Commodore in my exotics. 3 for 5 at Tampa. Daniel Coa as Jockey. I know it doesn't have the speed as some of the others. won 2 of last 3. in the OC62500, broke thru early, was leading at the 1/2 and was stopped at the 3/4 mark. Really would have liked to see him run that race through, but, this is a long shot I want in my super. I like the last 3 WO's also. Just a hunch here, but something keeps bringing me back to this horse so I have to go with it.


16Feb Tam 4f ft :47 B 1/25 04Feb Tam 4f ft :48 B 2/58 28Jan Tam 4f ft :48 B 3/59 06Jan







He is the lone early speed. I don't think he can hold on to it. I've got him ranked nineth.

[Capper Al]

My picks, not poly or Holmes, are 8-7-2 (6-9). As mentioned earlier the eight has both pace and class, a tough combination to beat. I'm demanding 9/1 to play him in this field. Looks like I will be passing.

Good Luck!

Let's talk about the race after it's run. I believe this will be a good one to review. Of course, one race doesn't make a system. Still the competition here is deep, and it could surprise and pay well.

[Beachbabe]

I like the :6: , :9: , :10:

The :6: has had 2 troubled trips in a row; gets the hot rider here and a trainer who knows how to get them ready.
The :9: lost a Grade 3 at CD by a head and a Grade 3 at Gulf by a length

the :10: has never been embarrased in graded stakes; has great turf trainer in Mott

[cj]

:4: and :11: for me.

[Robert Fischer]

:2: versailles road

[PhantomOnTour]

If they haven't already run this yet i kinda like the :1: for a share at a nice price

[bettheoverlay]

:8: :2:

[Robert Fischer]

2 never got out.. decent pace and it still didn't collapse

speed kills
especially this track today

[Beachbabe]

:4: and :11: for me.


Nice picks, CJ.
You ran 3rd & 4th....better than the rest of us did.

[Kirbyjrt]

El Commodore just missed at 33-1. Nice 1-2 finish though. WOW.

[Robert Fischer]

should've just boxed all the speed.

[PhantomOnTour]

If they haven't already run this yet i kinda like the :1: for a share at a nice price
What?
No love?

He paid $59.40 to win

[Kirbyjrt]

late speed nipped early speed. Good race.

[Beachbabe]

What?
No love?

He paid $59.40 to win


Sorry POT. must have missed it. Congrats big time.

[Capper Al]

What?
No love?

He paid $59.40 to win

Nice

[Capper Al]

Of course, these are the results. I went with the #2 because of the odds. Talk about it later.

9TH TAM OK FEBRUARY 25, 2012 OFF 4:27 TIME 1:40 2/5
CLEAR TRACK: FIRM

1 ROMAN TIGER 116 SERPA ANGEL 59.40 29.60 19.00
5 EL COMMODORE 118 COA DANIEL ....... 31.40 14.00
4 SWIFT WARRIOR 118 GUIDRY MARK ...............8.00

SCRATCHED: UPTOWNCHARLYBROWN

:faint: $2 EXACTA 1-5 PAID $1,393.60
$2 TRIFECTA 1-5-4 PAID $8,996.00
$1 SUPERFECTA 1-5-4-11 PAID $141,764.00

[Kirbyjrt]

I went for the super.

Wheeled 8-2-5 w all

Cost $21.60

My mindset went like this: Class-Pace-My longshot.

[Robert Fischer]

Of course, these are the results. I went with the #2 because of the odds. Talk about it later.

9TH TAM OK FEBRUARY 25, 2012 OFF 4:27 TIME 1:40 2/5
CLEAR TRACK: FIRM

1 ROMAN TIGER 116 SERPA ANGEL 59.40 29.60 19.00
5 EL COMMODORE 118 COA DANIEL ....... 31.40 14.00
4 SWIFT WARRIOR 118 GUIDRY MARK ...............8.00

SCRATCHED: UPTOWNCHARLYBROWN

:faint: $2 EXACTA 1-5 PAID $1,393.60
$2 TRIFECTA 1-5-4 PAID $8,996.00
$1 SUPERFECTA 1-5-4-11 PAID $141,764.00

Yea I liked the 2 as well.

Didn't end up wagering on this one.

Liked the 2 because I suspected we would see a speed favoring trip, and the 2 had battled on the pace consistently. Most of the 2's previous races were NOT speed favoring setups - Closers came up in most of them, and he fought on gamely.
I also wasn't real crazy about the rides Albarado and Borel had given him and felt the jockey today (Allen) was just as good but would be ignored on the board(poet didn't know it).

Although the prices were something like 30/10/7 WPS for :2:, I still didn't play - which says I really thought it was a crapshoot.

Thought about using all the speed - would have had to go pretty deep and didn't particularly like the ones who made the exacta.

Surprised they didn't get the 2 out on the pace. Haven't reviewed the break. a.pace was too fast stakes level... b. broke poorly... c.allen actually was a downgrade(least likely)

No remorse here , congrats to any who picked or played and hit.

Look for some of the closers next time out in a more favoring scenario.

[Capper Al]

What?
No love?

He paid $59.40 to win

PhantomonTour,

Since you're the man, would you explain your pick. The #1 comes up in the 5% of races that I can't explain it after the race. The #5, who came in second, is easier to explain with early speed.

Thanks

[garyscpa]

The important thing is you predicted a chaos race, and indeed it was.

[Grits]

The important thing is you predicted a chaos race, and indeed it was.

Very good point. Chaos can be profitable, as we know. And, if I were POT, its quite possible I may not reveal why I chose to have interest in the 1. ;)

[Robert Fischer]

spread race in the multi-race wagers ??

[CincyHorseplayer]

I didn't get to this thread before the race and I structured my main exactas around the 9 and 10 thinking the pace would fall apart.

I can't quite get a handle on Tampa's turf course.It's not kind to outside post positions unless you have early speed and not many horses labeled P/C or S/P win.Nearly all my plays worth a $hit on their turf course are waiting for no pace front end horses to win.I've always got the wrong closers.I did hit the 11th from the 10 hole on a stalking trip but he dropped from 4-1 to 2-1 from the time I bet at a minute to post til the finish.Was glad to see Ness get beat twice on the turf today too.His horses and what they do are starting to traumatize me.I don't play everyday so I'm just catching up to some of your frustion out there.I didn't play a 9/2 shot that won in the 7th today because of the Nessian factor and the astonishing improvements.

[PhantomOnTour]

PhantomonTour,

Since you're the man, would you explain your pick. The #1 comes up in the 5% of races that I can't explain it after the race. The #5, who came in second, is easier to explain with early speed.

Thanks
I never play TAM and only looked at this race because of this thread. When i look at a turf race on a course i never play i keep to the basics.

Using BRIS pp's i found that the :1: was in the top half of the field in avg E2+LP...AND...his avg LP is higher than his avg E2...which i like. I also thought the speed would falter and got lucky when the bomb pace horse just failed to hang on. Liked the inside draw and only the :10: has earned more $ on turf than the :1: and this guy does ALL his good work at 8.5f on turf.
I think i got a bit lucky as i looked at this race for about 10mins and didn't even bet it.

[Capper Al]

The important thing is you predicted a chaos race, and indeed it was.

You are right. The race was pegged as a chaos race with 9 out of the 12 horses listed as being contenders. I should of either skipped this race or anti-handicapped it. Betting on the #2 at 17/1 was a shot. The #1 was one of the three non-contenders on my list.

[Capper Al]

I never play TAM and only looked at this race because of this thread. When i look at a turf race on a course i never play i keep to the basics.

Using BRIS pp's i found that the :1: was in the top half of the field in avg E2+LP...AND...his avg LP is higher than his avg E2...which i like. I also thought the speed would falter and got lucky when the bomb pace horse just failed to hang on. Liked the inside draw and only the :10: has earned more $ on turf than the :1: and this guy does ALL his good work at 8.5f on turf.
I think i got a bit lucky as i looked at this race for about 10mins and didn't even bet it.

Thanks. I didn't catch the turf money. Not catching this is what I have said repeatedly in this forum that my new biggest weakness with using computer software is -- not reading the past performances anymore. The software output digests the data so well that one gets lazy believing that it isn't worth the time to look at the program. Wrong!

[vegasone]

I was happy...early speed with improving closer that stood out, sweated end of race for sure.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Nice hit Vegasone and Phantom.I never saw it even after the fact!

[vegasone]

Thanks. Hard to say I would do it the same way if I looked at it again....Just at the time it jumped out at me. Don't play too many exactas unless some long shots look good.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Thanks. Hard to say I would do it the same way if I looked at it again....Just at the time it jumped out at me. Don't play too many exactas unless some long shots look good.

That race was pretty contentious.I went round and round with it.i think if they took the names away from the PP's and looked at it once a week for a year,we would come up with something a little different every time.I wouldn't have taken less than 5-1 on any stab.(I think my horses actually dropped below that though).Anyway,my favorite thing other than seeing me win is to hear from someone else that did win!

[vegasone]

For sure always good to know someone is winning...keeping the hope alive

[Capper Al]

vegasone,

Nice hit. My methods still can't find the #1 horse after all has been said.