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Beachbabe
02-23-2012, 11:29 PM
Three of the top ten contenders (in most everyone's list) go :

Post 2---Algorithms--Castellano (Pletcher)

Post 5---Discreet Dancer--Velazquez (Pletcher)

Post 7---Union Rags--Leparoux (Matz)

It's two turns; there's only 8 entrants, so there shouldn't be many "trip" excuses. It should be interesting !!

Blenheim
02-24-2012, 06:16 AM
Here are the past performances:

http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm (http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm) Scroll to Pletcher or Romans.

Nothin' like the Derby Trail and nothin' like Gulfstream Park. Lookin' forward to the FOY!

papillon
02-24-2012, 10:50 AM
it's really an awkward set up, starting in the middle of the first turn like that--and isn't even really a two turn race, but more of a turn and a half, a turn and a quarter

both the two outside and the two inside horses could be disadvantaged by the set up

OTM Al
02-24-2012, 12:43 PM
it's really an awkward set up, starting in the middle of the first turn like that--and isn't even really a two turn race, but more of a turn and a half, a turn and a quarter

both the two outside and the two inside horses could be disadvantaged by the set up

What are you talking about? GP has an alternate finish for 1 1/16th mile races. It's still a disadvantage to be on an outside post, but it doesn't start in the turn

classhandicapper
02-24-2012, 01:15 PM
The best thing that may have happened to Unions Rags was losing the BC Juvenile.

If I was Michael Matz I wouldn't have Union Rags 100% for this race. I'd just concede the loss unless my horse was good enough to win it at 90%.

This is a very tough field. I don't think you want to crank your horse up close to 100% in February just to win the Fountain of Youth. The Pletcher horses could turn out to be great, but they also might be very good horses peaking a little too soon.

cj
02-24-2012, 03:39 PM
What are you talking about? GP has an alternate finish for 1 1/16th mile races. It's still a disadvantage to be on an outside post, but it doesn't start in the turn

I'm sure he looked at the diagram on the PPs offered by BRIS, which is obviously wrong. Still, he should have known better.

OTM Al
02-24-2012, 04:38 PM
I'm sure he looked at the diagram on the PPs offered by BRIS, which is obviously wrong. Still, he should have known better.

Hmmmm....another reason I don't use BRIS. All the more bad on them. In this case that's just as bad as publishing the wrong stats for a runner.

cj
02-24-2012, 05:42 PM
Hmmmm....another reason I don't use BRIS. All the more bad on them. In this case that's just as bad as publishing the wrong stats for a runner.

To be fair, DRF has itsr share of mistakes.

OTM Al
02-24-2012, 06:39 PM
To be fair, DRF has itsr share of mistakes.

True as well.

papillon
02-24-2012, 10:52 PM
yeah, i based that on the diagram--not sure why i "should have known better," but if it makes you feel superior, more power to you--you obviously need the self-esteem boost more than i.

instead of insulting me why don't you simply list your picks?

i picked discrete dancer at least a week ago in the other foy thread.

Striker
02-24-2012, 11:47 PM
The best thing that may have happened to Unions Rags was losing the BC Juvenile.

If I was Michael Matz I wouldn't have Union Rags 100% for this race. I'd just concede the loss unless my horse was good enough to win it at 90%.

This is a very tough field. I don't think you want to crank your horse up close to 100% in February just to win the Fountain of Youth. The Pletcher horses could turn out to be great, but they also might be very good horses peaking a little too soon.
Isn't the goal to win the Kentucky Derby? Why would any trainer want their horse peaking in February that is a major player on the derby trail? I agree that Matz will just want to have a solid effort from UR here and move onto the next step in his plan on the road to the Kentucky derby, whatever that next step may be. I would assume that Discreet Dancer will take them as far as he can on Sunday.

OTM Al
02-25-2012, 07:26 AM
yeah, i based that on the diagram--not sure why i "should have known better," but if it makes you feel superior, more power to you--you obviously need the self-esteem boost more than i.

instead of insulting me why don't you simply list your picks?

i picked discrete dancer at least a week ago in the other foy thread.

Here's some advice then. If you didn't know GP has a second finish line this year, you haven't been paying attention to racing there. For your own good don't bet it.

duncan04
02-26-2012, 02:18 AM
Going to try and hit with the #4 Casual Trick. Ran a good second in the Gulfstream Park Derby and last time out stumbled at start on a Sealed good track and tired. Has good works coming into race and hoping he can move forward at a price!

redshift1
02-26-2012, 02:46 AM
Going to try and hit with the #4 Casual Trick. Ran a good second in the Gulfstream Park Derby and last time out stumbled at start on a Sealed good track and tired. Has good works coming into race and hoping he can move forward at a price!


8-1 morning line odds, probably goes off higher though. Would be a bigger surprise than I'll have Another's $88.60 considering all the FOY prestige heavyweights.


.

Robert Fischer
02-26-2012, 02:52 AM
Discreet Dancer is an interesting horse.

In terms of talent, he can run with the top two. I don't really see why he wouldn't be ready for this level. Hasn't run his best race yet.

Algorithms is proven at this level.

Union Rags looked like the derby winner at the top of the stretch in the Juvenile. Then he bore out badly and changed leads near the wire, failing to put away a tiring Hansen.

pretty nice field.

RXB
02-26-2012, 03:10 AM
Discreet Dancer beat absolutely nothing in his first two races. Plus his pedigree screams sprinter-miler.

Union Rags was a good 2YO but nothing special and is another whose pedigree doesn't really bode too well beyond a mile.

Algorithms looks like the horse to beat. I think he should be fine up to 9f (the 10th furlong in the Ky Derby, I have my doubts). He'll almost certainly be favoured.

Pass.

redshift1
02-26-2012, 03:19 AM
My picks in order of preference:

1. Algorithms .... recent 105 win on track

2. Discreet Dancer ...recent 96 win on track

3. Union Rags


Things may change in the Florida Derby but right now whether or not Union Rags makes the transition between 2 and 3 makes him a chancy wager at 2-1.

Hansen and Creative Cause are 0 for 2 in 2012, not a good sign for UR.

Algorithms catches Discreet Dancer in the stretch with UR hanging on for third.

.

IrishRail76
02-26-2012, 04:09 AM
Casual Trick is in my top four. I usually play across-the-board in these early big prep races, then put them in Exactas for the less "big-time" preps, like the Arkansas Derby. Many of us had the Exacta in that one last year, and if I recall correctly, it was sweet. Nakatani and Zito would excite me more in NY, but this early, to hit the board in Hallandale would not be out of the question. The season is very young, but soon the usual suspects will begin to build their bankrolls.

Casino
02-26-2012, 10:03 AM
Algorithms scratch from the FOY.

classhandicapper
02-26-2012, 01:18 PM
Algorithms scratch from the FOY.

The scratch takes away from the interest in the race, but it's probably not a bad thing that Union Rags gets a softer spot for his comeback off the layoff.

Ocala Mike
02-26-2012, 02:22 PM
Looking for the :1: to outrun his odds, maybe in the exacta under the :5: or :7: . Like his running style, although maybe better suited to later on down the TC trail.


Ocala Mike

Robert Fischer
02-26-2012, 02:38 PM
The scratch takes away from the interest in the race, but it's probably not a bad thing that Union Rags gets a softer spot for his comeback off the layoff.

Nothing soft about running down DD while several solid horses make up the field.

Robert Fischer
02-26-2012, 02:54 PM
Discreet Dancer beat absolutely nothing in his first two races. Plus his pedigree screams sprinter-miler.

Agree.

This year it's only an extra 1/16th of a mile.

DD has been asked to do something new both starts, and both starts he delivered.

He really rated well in the stretch out to 1 mile. Completely relaxed. He is listed as having John Velasquez up today. - This will help his style here as will the slight stretch out. I think we will see the typical ride that JV gives the pletcher stakes horses, only on the pace.
Actually think JV would be better for this specific horse, although Algorithms scratches - so a slight thing to follow.
Did everything right so far but he was more natural in his debut where he was just allowed to run. 2nd at a route I think we'll see a natural type of run with less greenness.

Wary of this horse at a classic distance or even 9furlongs in a good race, but this is only 8.5.
He probably gets a very easy trip here. Hes a guy that could be sprinting and hes a sharp type of horse. Union Rags has to show that he's not only stronger than he was at the end of last year, but that he is in great condition.
Two questions. With Discreet Dancer we have a horse that draws some very slight comparisons to Quality Road.
Tactical Speed, Talent, can rate but should have the lead. Even with JV in the 2 path looking to go right handed in the stretch, Union Rags will be wider and have to do more running while Discreet Dancer has a fair chance of breaking well and then running a steady pace up front.

I want Union Rags to win. I want him to draw off and remain on his right lead through the stretch and not bear out. However having watched Discreet Dancer's race, he can't be easily dismissed and very likely will be the one to beat entering the stretch.

classhandicapper
02-26-2012, 03:02 PM
Nothing soft about running down DD while several solid horses make up the field.

Agreed. I'm not conceding the race to him because I believe Metz is smart enough to not have him 100% wound up for this and you never know whether these good 2YOs will make the turn to 3 well. But if he is pretty sharp, it probably would have taken a "huge" race to beat Algorithms. IMO that's not what you want. He might be able to win this at 90% without killing himself.

redshift1
02-26-2012, 03:10 PM
My Ammended picks in order of preference:

1. Discreet Dancer ...recent 96 win on track

2. Union Rags

3. Casual Trick

Race sets up for DD who may end up the favorite but if DD can't get the distance and UR is short then Neck "N Neck or Casual Trick might get lucky.


.

Blenheim
02-26-2012, 03:24 PM
:4: :5: :6: :7:
:4: :5: :7: :6:

Best or racin luck.

Nothin' like the Derby Trail. Lookin forward to the Fountain of Youth.

RXB
02-26-2012, 04:05 PM
DD has been asked to do something new both starts, and both starts he delivered.

He really rated well in the stretch out to 1 mile. Completely relaxed.


Obviously with Algorithms out it's a different race. DD might go gate-to-wire now but I wouldn't take the short price.

Seriously, this horse has beaten absolutely nothing to-date. In that mile allowance he got away with modest fractions and only a hopeless 100/1 shot "pressuring" him in the first half-mile. Five of the opposing horses have ran back since-- finishing 5th, 5th, 5th, 6th, 8th. Highest Beyer of those five starts was 77.

Of the opposition from his debut race, only one has broken its maiden and that was in a MCL contest in ordinary time; that horse was subsequently beaten by 40 lengths in a starter allowance. Except for the sixth and eighth finishers who haven't ran back, all of the others have lost since in MCL company.

redshift1
02-26-2012, 04:38 PM
You can't fault the horse for beating weaker competition when he's cruising by open lengths. I agree though DD is unplayable unless used in some exotic combination.

Beachbabe
02-26-2012, 05:27 PM
Discreet Dancer to romp !!

Cholly
02-26-2012, 05:37 PM
ANQAI

Beachbabe
02-26-2012, 05:38 PM
WHEW !!!!
"Rags" looked awesome.
I'm a believer.

Grits
02-26-2012, 05:39 PM
WOW, Rags cruised. . . . . Nice.

Beachbabe
02-26-2012, 05:43 PM
If you discount Discreet Dancer as a sprinter, then Rags didn't beat much here. But, jeeze, he did it as easy as you can and supposedly he wasn't fully cranked.

Damn shame Algorithms wasn't here, then you could make a better judgement of Rags' performance.

classhandicapper
02-26-2012, 05:44 PM
That was about as perfect a prep as you could ask for. He won impressively without being asked for his best, but did enough running to get something out of it. In his next start we'll find out if he's going to step forward and become a top 3YO. Matz will be have him sharper next time.

gm10
02-26-2012, 05:47 PM
It was against a small, average-looking field, but it was still impressive.

KirisClown
02-26-2012, 05:47 PM
ThoLY1aTlIM

Robert Fischer
02-26-2012, 05:55 PM
nice job by Matz and Romans here.

redshift1
02-26-2012, 06:04 PM
Well, I was wrong UR was ready. Pretty much a hand ride.

Some_One
02-26-2012, 06:04 PM
Got to admit UR looked really good in the lane, unlike when I panned him after his Spa win, looked like a much more powerful stride, I'm no body language expert so I'll defer to others if UR really has developed that much since the BC....and again the race proves a 1 turn mile and 2 turn mile+100yds are two completely different races, like Quality Road, I would prefer Discreet Dancer in the Met Mile rather than the Derby.

classhandicapper
02-26-2012, 06:21 PM
One thing to at least consider is that Fort Loudon didn't do much running out of the Algorithm/Hansen race and the figure for that race has been considered somewhat suspect. Perhaps it wasn't as fast as the Beyer indicates.

redshift1
02-26-2012, 06:30 PM
Here's the splits:


24.50* 48.11* 1:12.05* 1:36.28* * 1:42.68

24.50 23.61 23.94 24.23 6.4

48.11 48.17


Similar in time to El Padrino's and Awesome Maria's 1 1/16th mile races at Gulfstream this year. Anyone know how the track was playing today?


.

RXB
02-26-2012, 06:41 PM
One thing to at least consider is that Fort Loudon didn't do much running out of the Algorithm/Hansen race and the figure for that race has been considered somewhat suspect. Perhaps it wasn't as fast as the Beyer indicates.

I'm fairly sure Algorithms would've given Union Rags all that he could handle. Would've been a good race. UR beat nothing of consequence today.

nijinski
02-26-2012, 06:43 PM
I remember reading that Matz said UR has really grown. Almost 17 hands now. I've enjoyed watching his progress . Kind of sentimental because my Dad was a big Woody Stephens fan so it was a big deal when I got to see
Terpsichorist on the Meadowlands backstretch. You don't forget these things especially at 35-1. She beat the boys that same night and she is the grand dam of Union Rags. This filly had no problem with stamina , the longer the better.
So far he's keeping up and hope it continues this way.

CincyHorseplayer
02-26-2012, 07:09 PM
He looked great.And at least he raced.He can't beat what's not there.What was the deal with Algorithms anyway?

RXB
02-26-2012, 07:20 PM
He looked great.And at least he raced.He can't beat what's not there.What was the deal with Algorithms anyway?

Algorithms apparently popped a splint.

Re: Union Rags, the point is that beating what was there isn't that much of an accomplishment. Just like Discreet Dancer's victories against two soft fields didn't mean much when he faced against actual opposition today. Today's race was a decent start for Union Rags but not necessarily indicative of what to expect in a 10f race against legit company with a solid pace.

nijinski
02-26-2012, 07:28 PM
He looked great.And at least he raced.He can't beat what's not there.What was the deal with Algorithms anyway?

Dr Bramlage will be doing a full exam on him so we will be hearing the full extent major or minor soon. Hoping it's minor!
Gotta expect that if is a splint , there is going to be some time off involved , being it's almost March ,this has to be frustrating .

CincyHorseplayer
02-26-2012, 07:29 PM
Algorithms apparently popped a splint.

Re: Union Rags, the point is that beating what was there isn't that much of an accomplishment. Just like Discreet Dancer's victories against two soft fields didn't mean much when he faced against actual opposition today. Today's race was a decent start for Union Rags but not necessarily indicative of what to expect in a 10f race against legit company with a solid pace.

My counterpoint would be that the genuinely good ones breeze through the preliminary allowances easily year in,year out because they are such,and they do it again in early winter stakes because of stretchouts and layoffs and nonconteders.It's pretty status quo til the field gets narrowed down.I like to bash on those who are overzealous to beat a horse down for doing routine things that occur with good horses year in,year out.

CincyHorseplayer
02-26-2012, 07:33 PM
Dr Bramlage will be doing a full exam on him so we will be hearing the full extent major or minor soon. Hoping it's minor!
Gotta expect that if is a splint , there is going to be some time off involved , being it's almost March ,this has to be frustrating .

I know I hate seeing this for everybody.I usually don't bet on Sunday but was pumped up to see this matchup.There's still the Travers if this is serious.

RXB
02-26-2012, 07:46 PM
My counterpoint would be that the genuinely good ones breeze through the preliminary allowances easily year in,year out because they are such,and they do it again in early winter stakes because of stretchouts and layoffs and nonconteders.It's pretty status quo til the field gets narrowed down.I like to bash on those who are overzealous to beat a horse down for doing routine things that occur with good horses year in,year out.

My counterpoint would be that the genuinely good ones breeze through the preliminary allowances easily year in,year out because they are such,and they do it again in early winter stakes because of stretchouts and layoffs and nonconteders.It's pretty status quo til the field gets narrowed down.I like to bash on those who are overzealous to beat a horse down for doing routine things that occur with good horses year in,year out.

And my counter-counterpoint is that I see a greater number of people who are overzealous when it comes to overrepresenting a facile win against weak competition. As shown by Discreet Dancer being bet down to 4/5 today.

Maybe Union Rags is a monster but we don't know that from today's race since there was precious little competition. I do know that Dixie Union's progeny have been racing since 2004 and I'm not aware of a single stakes win beyond 9f for anything of them. I also know that the dam's sons & daughters have been primarily sprinters, save one pre-Union Rags. So when DRF proclaims him as "the Derby favourite," my response is: maybe the Florida version. In my view, anyway.

CincyHorseplayer
02-26-2012, 08:00 PM
And my counter-counterpoint is that I see a greater number of people who are overzealous when it comes to overrepresenting a facile win against weak competition. As shown by Discreet Dancer being bet down to 4/5 today.

Maybe Union Rags is a monster but we don't know that from today's race since there was precious little competition. I do know that Dixie Union's progeny have been racing since 2004 and I'm not aware of a single stakes win beyond 9f for anything of them. I also know that the dam's sons & daughters have been primarily sprinters, save one pre-Union Rags. So when DRF proclaims him as "the Derby favourite," my response is: maybe the Florida version. In my view, anyway.

I hear you.You aren't who the target is obviously.I'm pretty critical too.I was on El Padrino,he looked like a hanger vs a stretchout horse.Rags mows em down convincingly off a layoff.That's all he could do.Big difference in the how.Making the leap from my disdain of those who critique a solid performance to propping him up as a derby favorite or implying what he can do anything beyond today is way too big.I just don't like routine or idle negativity.Not saying you embody that though.

papillon
02-26-2012, 08:46 PM
regarding track speed--a dirt allowance race at a mile earlier in the day was faster (1:35.17)

that union rags won easily as the high weight is a very good sign, however, his mile in this race was slower than hansen's mile in the holly bull, at the same weight (1:35.95 vs 1:35.92, but without hansen's bad start and 22.56 & 21.91 opening fractions); even worse, his mile was almost a second slower than algorithms in the holy bull (1:35.09). union rags won't have the benefit of a comfortable pace in the KY derby...

if it was fair to raise the (low) level of competition when one horse won against weak fields twice by over 25 lengths (combined), then it is legit to raise it against union rags...just saying...

NTamm1215
02-26-2012, 08:55 PM
regarding track speed--a dirt allowance race at a mile earlier in the day was faster (1:35.17)

that union rags won easily as the high weight is a very good sign, however, his mile in this race was slower than hansen's mile in the holly bull, at the same weight (1:35.95 vs 1:35.92, but without hansen's bad start and 22.56 & 21.91 opening fractions); even worse, his mile was almost a second slower than algorithms in the holy bull (1:35.09). union rags won't have the benefit of a comfortable pace in the KY derby...

if it was fair to raise the (low) level of competition when one horse won against weak fields twice by over 25 lengths (combined), then it is legit to raise it against union rags...just saying...

Wow. This is special.

cj
02-26-2012, 09:12 PM
regarding track speed--a dirt allowance race at a mile earlier in the day was faster (1:35.17)

that union rags won easily as the high weight is a very good sign, however, his mile in this race was slower than hansen's mile in the holly bull, at the same weight (1:35.95 vs 1:35.92, but without hansen's bad start and 22.56 & 21.91 opening fractions); even worse, his mile was almost a second slower than algorithms in the holy bull (1:35.09). union rags won't have the benefit of a comfortable pace in the KY derby...

if it was fair to raise the (low) level of competition when one horse won against weak fields twice by over 25 lengths (combined), then it is legit to raise it against union rags...just saying...
You need to study up on track configurations. There are a lot of faulty comparisons here.
The weight stuff, and I'm trying to be nice, is highly suspect at best.

turninforhome10
02-26-2012, 10:08 PM
Mechanically Union Rags is just a tremondous mover. You could see him just lopin down the backside. When he leveled off down the stretch you could see he was doing it easy. He grew up alot and is kind of a man among boys right now. Very impressed with the horse and Matz. UR looks like he is enjoying himself out their. Good effort and he passed the test. On to the FLA Derby or Wood?

CincyHorseplayer
02-26-2012, 10:47 PM
Mechanically Union Rags is just a tremondous mover. You could see him just lopin down the backside. When he leveled off down the stretch you could see he was doing it easy. He grew up alot and is kind of a man among boys right now. Very impressed with the horse and Matz. UR looks like he is enjoying himself out their. Good effort and he passed the test. On to the FLA Derby or Wood?

Matz said the plan all along was the Florida Derby!He was not cranked full tilt and no whip.Here's the rest;

http://www.drf.com/news/gulfstream-if-fountain-youth-was-prep-what-can-union-rags-really-do

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/67670/union-rags-gallops-away-in-fountain-of-youth?source=rss

depalma113
02-26-2012, 10:58 PM
And my counter-counterpoint is that I see a greater number of people who are overzealous when it comes to overrepresenting a facile win against weak competition. As shown by Discreet Dancer being bet down to 4/5 today.

Maybe Union Rags is a monster but we don't know that from today's race since there was precious little competition. I do know that Dixie Union's progeny have been racing since 2004 and I'm not aware of a single stakes win beyond 9f for anything of them. I also know that the dam's sons & daughters have been primarily sprinters, save one pre-Union Rags. So when DRF proclaims him as "the Derby favourite," my response is: maybe the Florida version. In my view, anyway.

Other than Grasshopper, there are only maybe four other offspring that have tried a race beyond 9 furlongs on dirt.

Grasshopper lost to Street Sense by a half length but was more than 10 lengths ahead of the third place horse in the Travers.

I would think most Dixie Unions can't get a mile and a quarter, but this one is much better than Grasshopper.

Dahoss9698
02-26-2012, 11:29 PM
I think we saw two, maybe three pretty good 3 year olds this weekend. Union Rags confirmed the thoughts of those of us that thought he was much the best in the Juvenile and is a pretty good colt. Let's hope he stays healthy.

El Padrino had to work harder this time, but the speed figure matches up well with the better figures this year and I don't think we've seen his bottom yet. Mark Valeski stepped up in a big way and I'll be interested in seeing what he does next time.

Out at Sunland we saw Isn't He Clever get back to his winning ways. I'm beginning to think he might not be at his best going two turns, but I think he's a pretty good one turn horse.

Hopefully the upcoming preps are like this weekends.

papillon
02-27-2012, 12:23 AM
You need to study up on track configurations. There are a lot of faulty comparisons here.
The weight stuff, and I'm trying to be nice, is highly suspect at best.

being patronizing isn't being nice, it's just a pissy way to be rude--if you don't think weight matters at all, fine--strange though, since it is the whole foundation to the handicap racing system.

here's the thing, i'm not asking you to educate me. not sure where you got the notion that i was.

CincyHorseplayer
02-27-2012, 12:37 AM
being patronizing isn't being nice, it's just a pissy way to be rude--if you don't think weight matters at all, fine--strange though, since it is the whole foundation to the handicap racing system.

here's the thing, i'm not asking you to educate me. not sure where you got the notion that i was.

Maybe you should ask.Nobody wanted to embarrass you by letting you know you don't know the difference that 8 furlong races at Gulfstream are 1 turn and at 8.5 they are 2 turns.Since you're willing to get cranky about it,I'm willing to educate!:cool:

cj
02-27-2012, 12:50 AM
The other day you thought 8.5f races started in the middle of the turn. You ignored those posts.

If you are going to post the stuff you do and have glaring errors and misconceptions, it is going to get called. You really think with all the knowledge on this board nobody ever studied weight before? You are making a novice mistake. You are taking a minor factor, weight, and trying to make it out to be a major one.

Your time comparisons are even worse. Comparing raw times from different distances run around a different number of turns and run weeks apart makes no sense. It is almost like trying to compare Michael Johnson's time in the 400 to Usain Bolt in the 100. I know, a bit exaggerated, but the point is made.

Listen if you like, or don't, but when you start threads people will respond. This is a message board. It wouldn't be much fun if we all agreed with each other.

Spalding No!
02-27-2012, 01:26 AM
Out at Sunland we saw Isn't He Clever get back to his winning ways. I'm beginning to think he might not be at his best going two turns, but I think he's a pretty good one turn horse.
The result of the Borderland Derby was interesting as it concerns the much ballyhooed Baffert colt, Fed Biz, who has yet to appear in stakes. Fed Biz beat Zackn'mat in his maiden win. Zackn'mat ran second yesterday to Isn't He Clever at Sunland. Isn't He Clever was well beaten in the Robert Lewis at Santa Anita. If that performance can be taken at face value, then perhaps we should temper enthusiasm for Fed Biz when he steps up in class next time out.

RXB
02-27-2012, 03:08 AM
Other than Grasshopper, there are only maybe four other offspring that have tried a race beyond 9 furlongs on dirt.

Grasshopper lost to Street Sense by a half length but was more than 10 lengths ahead of the third place horse in the Travers.

I would think most Dixie Unions can't get a mile and a quarter, but this one is much better than Grasshopper.

There's a reason why only a few of them have tried and none have won. And even if Union Rags is more talented than Grasshopper, that doesn't necessarily mean that he wants 10f. None of us knows for sure but based on available evidence it's certainly not a proposition that I'd take at low odds.

Beating a second-place finisher as thoroughly underwhelming as News Pending, even in a facile manner, doesn't vault any horse clearly to the head of the class in my view.

Spalding No!
02-27-2012, 10:47 AM
There's a reason why only a few of them have tried and none have won.
That reason is there are precious few races carded at 10f in NA nowadays. And the majority of those are run on turf.

If there is an angle for attacking Dixie Union as a stud, it's that he hasn't consistently produced top class offspring. His other Grade 1 winners (there's only 2 of them) are of dubious quality (ie Dixie Chatter, Hot Dixie Chick). Union Rags is clearly his first serious horse.

Going back to using 10f wins to validate stamina, who on this year's Derby trail is by a sire with solid stats in that category? Leroidesanimeaux? Forestry? Roman Ruler?

Rackon
02-27-2012, 11:19 AM
There's a reason why only a few of them have tried and none have won. And even if Union Rags is more talented than Grasshopper, that doesn't necessarily mean that he wants 10f. None of us knows for sure but based on available evidence it's certainly not a proposition that I'd take at low odds.

Beating a second-place finisher as thoroughly underwhelming as News Pending, even in a facile manner, doesn't vault any horse clearly to the head of the class in my view.

So which horse(s) do you have at the head of the class?

While I'm not ready to annoint UR the second coming of Barbaro, I saw an awful lot to like in his run yesterday. He matured off his BCJ: broke sharply, rated kindly, showed tactical speed where needed, remained unflustered in close traffic. I was especially pleased to see him run straight in his stretch drive.

It's early days yet on the Derby Trail. You could be right about his distance limitations. But I'm not tossing him on account of his sire...not yet. And I love the bottom side of his pedigree. I am very much looking forward to his FL Derby.

cj
02-27-2012, 11:21 AM
10f graded stakes run on dirt in 2011:

G1: 7
G2: 2

Of the 7 G1s, only the BC Classic, the JCGC, and the Big Cap are open to all comers. The Hawthorne Gold Cup is the lone open G2.

The other G1s are the Alabama (3F), the Personal Ensign (3+FM), Kentucky Derby(3), and the Travers(3). The other G2 is the Delaware Handicap(3+FM).

cj
02-27-2012, 11:22 AM
Beating a second-place finisher as thoroughly underwhelming as News Pending, even in a facile manner, doesn't vault any horse clearly to the head of the class in my view.

Sure, that doesn't vault one to the top, but most already had him there, deservedly so.

Robert Fischer
02-27-2012, 11:40 AM
Union Rags ran well.

He was clearly a triple crown type of horse as a 2yo and he looked like he would be a contender in triple crown races, not just make it there.

He was IMO clearly the best in the juvenile.
However in the stretch of the Juvy, he bore out badly. Not a good sign. Had to be corrected and swung in , and then near the wire he changed leads to the wrong lead. It was a bit of an awkward lead change and all together it was a bad combination of things. Yes Hansen ran well, yes Rags ran well, but at the top of the stretch UR was going to destroy Hansen and after rattling off a few terrible signs as described he couldn't finish his target.

Discreet Cat was a huge no-show in the Fountain of Youth. His ride was a bit questionable, as he slowed the pace so much to allow the race to be a battle of closing kicks with 2 bigger horses(one of whom being UR!), which was idiotic, but the jock may not have had much horse under him. DD didn't pick up a hoof, just an awful race by him given all his advantages and the chances he had yesterday to edge away on a lead.

The 6 had been waking up for Romans, who is one of the better triple crown trainers. Romans has generally preferred his horses run near the pace, and the slow pace allowed him to come up yesterday. He ran an impressive race, but it wasn't good enough to seriously challenge any of this years top 3yos on their day.

Rags ran great. Untested, he couldn't have asked for more when the pace waited for him/failed to fire. Moderate pace, clean trip, roll on up and inherit the lead, short stretch finish line, only 8.5f total distance, only a moderate drive...

Hopefully those negative signs in the Juvy will never show up again, and were not soundness issues with those long legs.

Has to be the Derby favorite at this point.

RXB
02-27-2012, 12:57 PM
Going back to using 10f wins to validate stamina, who on this year's Derby trail is by a sire with solid stats in that category? Leroidesanimeaux? Forestry? Roman Ruler?

Well, Leroidesanimaux has had only three crops of racers so far, compared to eight for Dixie Union-- and in case you've forgotten, last year's Ky Derby winner was sired by none other than Leroidesanimaux. Have I ever made any claims about Forestry and Roman Ruler as stamina sources? Of course not.

Union Rags' dam has thrown primarily sprinters. We know he can go 8.5f, but until he actually proves it at 10f, I'll harbour reservations.

RXB
02-27-2012, 01:02 PM
Sure, that doesn't vault one to the top, but most already had him there, deservedly so.

2YO form has meant so little in the Ky Derby over the past 30 years, to me it's pretty much a clean slate.

He ran fine yesterday, but what did he beat? The second finisher is squat. The third finisher-- who is the second most talented horse-- very probably wants a shorter distance and also was running inside, which seemed not to be the best part of the track yesterday.

cj
02-27-2012, 01:13 PM
2YO form has meant so little in the Ky Derby over the past 30 years, to me it's pretty much a clean slate.

He ran fine yesterday, but what did he beat? The second finisher is squat. The third finisher-- who is the second most talented horse-- very probably wants a shorter distance and also was running inside, which seemed not to be the best part of the track yesterday.

News Pending has steadily improved since his debut, and this was his first trip on dirt in some time. I wouldn't write him off yet, 3yos often improve rapidly.

I'm not saying I would bet Union Rags at all, but he is the clear leader. Who has anyone beaten at this point?

As for 2yo form, since 2003, it has been pretty solid. I didn't go back any farther.

03: Funny Cide had some nice wins and ran pretty fast against weak statebreds.
04: Smarty Jones showed plenty of talent in two races against weak competition, PA statebreds.
05: Giacomo ran pretty darn well in the Hollywood Futurity at 2 in his last start.
06: Barbaro ran great at 2 on turf, again against weak, ungraded competition.
07: Street Sense was 2yo champion and won the Juvenile.
08: Big Brown was fabulous in his lone 2yo start, albeit on turf.
09: Mine that Bird won four races on polytrack, including stakes races, at 2.
10: Super Saver romped in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club in his final start at 2.
11: Animal Kingdom only broke his maiden, but also was never given a chance on dirt.

All in all, seems like most of the Derby winners showed plenty of talent at 2.

Spalding No!
02-27-2012, 01:28 PM
Well, Leroidesanimaux has had only three crops of racers so far, compared to eight for Dixie Union-- and in case you've forgotten, last year's Ky Derby winner was sired by none other than Leroidesanimaux. Have I ever made any claims about Forestry and Roman Ruler as stamina sources? Of course not.
Well, you picked up on a third of it, at least. Classic winners Shackleford and Ruler On Ice were sired by the other two.

Much is made about pedigree during the Derby trail, and it produces some interesting quasi-science (eg the dosage system). But in the end, once a horse has several races under its belt, it's the past performances and running style that are most important in evaluating potential stamina for the Classics.

Union Rags' dam has thrown primarily sprinters. We know he can go 8.5f, but until he actually proves it at 10f, I'll harbour reservations.
His dam also primarily throws cheap claimers. The one quality horse she produced besides Union Rags was a two-turn filly for Bobby Frankel, Tempo West. Tempo West, as a broodmare, has produced two colts that were multiple winners at 10f and another that was a multiple winner at a mile.

The second dam, a multiple stakes winner at marathon distances, produced a bevy of route horses, several of stakes quality. Besides Union Rags's dam, Tempo, she has also produced two other daughters that have gone on to produce stakes-caliber routers.

Spalding No!
02-27-2012, 01:59 PM
2YO form has meant so little in the Ky Derby over the past 30 years, to me it's pretty much a clean slate.

In the last 30 years, only 9 Derby winners failed to see stakes action as 2yos. Only 8 Derby runner-ups failed to see stakes action at 2. 12 show horses didn't run in stakes as juveniles.

Certainly 2yo form isn't as potent with today's streamlined and sparse campaigning, but it's hardly been insignificant.

PhantomOnTour
02-27-2012, 04:43 PM
The race came back SLOW-SLOW-AVG by my figs: 100-102-105

I have Union Rags' best 2yr old fig at a 109 so this race, while slow thru 6f, is a very nice starting point for his 3yr old development.
Especially considering he wasn't fully fit according to Matz.

Robert Fischer
02-27-2012, 06:00 PM
Discreet Cat was a huge no-show in the Fountain of Youth.

say what

toussaud
02-27-2012, 06:11 PM
There's a reason why only a few of them have tried and none have won. And even if Union Rags is more talented than Grasshopper, that doesn't necessarily mean that he wants 10f. None of us knows for sure but based on available evidence it's certainly not a proposition that I'd take at low odds.

Beating a second-place finisher as thoroughly underwhelming as News Pending, even in a facile manner, doesn't vault any horse clearly to the head of the class in my view.

by my numbers, dixie union has sired 3 horses that have won a grade 2 at 9F. no grade 1's. and no 10F races

RXB
02-27-2012, 08:30 PM
News Pending has steadily improved since his debut, and this was his first trip on dirt in some time. I wouldn't write him off yet, 3yos often improve rapidly.

I'm not saying I would bet Union Rags at all, but he is the clear leader. Who has anyone beaten at this point?

As for 2yo form, since 2003, it has been pretty solid. I didn't go back any farther.

03: Funny Cide had some nice wins and ran pretty fast against weak statebreds.
04: Smarty Jones showed plenty of talent in two races against weak competition, PA statebreds.
05: Giacomo ran pretty darn well in the Hollywood Futurity at 2 in his last start.
06: Barbaro ran great at 2 on turf, again against weak, ungraded competition.
07: Street Sense was 2yo champion and won the Juvenile.
08: Big Brown was fabulous in his lone 2yo start, albeit on turf.
09: Mine that Bird won four races on polytrack, including stakes races, at 2.
10: Super Saver romped in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club in his final start at 2.
11: Animal Kingdom only broke his maiden, but also was never given a chance on dirt.

All in all, seems like most of the Derby winners showed plenty of talent at 2.

I didn't mean that Triple Crown contenders are okay to run like donkeys as 2YO's. But other than Street Sense, where were any of these horses ranked in the weighted year-end handicap? What odds were they in the future books? Some of them were Field animals at this point, that's for sure. Street Sense is the only one of them that won a Gr1 2YO race. And he's the only 2YO champ in the entire Breeders' Cup era and the only BC Juvenile winner to go on to win the Ky Derby. So for me, Union Rags being ranked as the best or second-best 2YO last year doesn't count for much in terms of being the legit Ky Derby favourite.

RXB
02-27-2012, 09:05 PM
Much is made about pedigree during the Derby trail, and it produces some interesting quasi-science (eg the dosage system). But in the end, once a horse has several races under its belt, it's the past performances and running style that are most important in evaluating potential stamina for the Classics.

His dam also primarily throws cheap claimers. The one quality horse she produced besides Union Rags was a two-turn filly for Bobby Frankel, Tempo West. Tempo West, as a broodmare, has produced two colts that were multiple winners at 10f and another that was a multiple winner at a mile.

The second dam, a multiple stakes winner at marathon distances, produced a bevy of route horses, several of stakes quality. Besides Union Rags's dam, Tempo, she has also produced two other daughters that have gone on to produce stakes-caliber routers.

I agree generally with your first paragraph. I offer some additional info on the last two regarding Union Rags' family.

"The second dam" is Terpsichorist-- sired by Nijinsky. I'm sure you know the huge difference, both in class and stamina terms, between Nijinsky and Dixie Union as sires, so her own prowess at longer distances is not a good indicator of what Dixie Union to a Gone West daughter of hers is likely to produce. BTW, Terpsichorist never won a Gr1, only one Gr2-- and of all those runners of hers and her daughters to which you refer, there's only a single Gr2 win before Union Rags and that win came in a sprint, not a route. So to summarize, from all that family, Union Rags is the only Gr1 winner and that was at a mile, which is a long way from 10f.

Tempo West really wasn't that good; from 11 races, she competed only once in a stakes (G3) and finished 11th. The best horse she's dropped was Vertiformer; yes, his two wins were both at 10f but the topper of those two wins was only a listed race-- and he was sired by Dynaformer, which is very different than being sired by Dixie Union when it comes to distance prowess (and overall class).

Spalding No!
02-27-2012, 09:36 PM
BTW, Terpsichorist never won a Gr1, only one Gr2-- and of all those runners of hers and her daughters to which you refer, there's only a single Gr2 win before Union Rags and that win came in a sprint, not a route. So to summarize, from all that family, Union Rags is the only Gr1 winner and that was at a mile, which is a long way from 10f.
Fair enough, but if we say that Union Rags is the only horse of quality from the family, then how do we set limitations on him based on his inferior relatives?

Horses outrun their pedigrees all the time, especially in this day and age, where true stamina isn't even displayed in the few races carded at 10f or more. Most end up, like the 2010 Derby, as mere battles of attrition.

Union Rags, with the Champagne and now the Fountain of Youth in tow, has won two of the most productive races in terms of Classic success. And he's won them handily.

RXB
02-27-2012, 10:09 PM
Fair enough, but if we say that Union Rags is the only horse of quality from the family, then how do we set limitations on him based on his inferior relatives?

Horses outrun their pedigrees all the time, especially in this day and age, where true stamina isn't even displayed in the few races carded at 10f or more. Most end up, like the 2010 Derby, as mere battles of attrition.

Union Rags, with the Champagne and now the Fountain of Youth in tow, has won two of the most productive races in terms of Classic success. And he's won them handily.

No real disagreement with what you've written here. Just adding context: the problem is that it's hard to know which of the competitors will be the one to outrun its pedigree, until after the fact. (Part of the reason why I haven't bet a TC race for going on eight years.)

I can't make a lot of the easy win yesterday because when I look at the competition, it's no surprise that a sound and fit Union Rags would win without much difficulty. Put El Padrino (or Mark Valeski, as it turns out) in place of Union Rags and that horse would've scored fairly easily, too. So other than showing that UR has maintained good form-- and looks well; he's matured nicely-- the Fountain of Youth doesn't tell me enough about what he'll have to offer when push comes to shove in a legit Gr1 10f race.

toussaud
02-27-2012, 11:50 PM
also if i am not mistaken union rag's great grand dam was a 2YO champion and didn't sniff anything at 3.

pedigree for going 10F just really doesn't look very good for union rags honestly. not saying he won't do it but he's going to have to do something his family has proven.. on both sides, it doesn't do very well.

I mean, some families like, they may have some sprinters but if you go back and follow the tail female line you can find enough stanima influences that can make you feel better. this is not one of those families. Terpsichorist being one of the few examples her being sired by a world class turf sire and she ran like it.

actually would not mind seeing him on the turf. he has enough of it on both sides where he should take to it.

nijinski
02-28-2012, 12:01 AM
I agree generally with your first paragraph. I offer some additional info on the last two regarding Union Rags' family.

"The second dam" is Terpsichorist-- sired by Nijinsky. I'm sure you know the huge difference, both in class and stamina terms, between Nijinsky and Dixie Union as sires, so her own prowess at longer distances is not a good indicator of what Dixie Union to a Gone West daughter of hers is likely to produce. BTW, Terpsichorist never won a Gr1, only one Gr2-- and of all those runners of hers and her daughters to which you refer, there's only a single Gr2 win before Union Rags and that win came in a sprint, not a route. So to summarize, from all that family, Union Rags is the only Gr1 winner and that was at a mile, which is a long way from 10f.

Tempo West really wasn't that good; from 11 races, she competed only once in a stakes (G3) and finished 11th. The best horse she's dropped was Vertiformer; yes, his two wins were both at 10f but the topper of those two wins was only a listed race-- and he was sired by Dynaformer, which is very different than being sired by Dixie Union when it comes to distance prowess (and overall class).
I have a different opinion than you on Terpsichorist . She was a highly regarded Stephens filly . She was quite the long winded one . She battled with some fine fillys in her day and put away the colt Darby Creek Road . Handling 9 , 10 and up to 12 furlongs , pretty impressive.
The precocious , high strung trait seen in some of the Nijinsky's could have
posed a problem which may or may not be the reason for the oft seen gelded
males in her line.
No reason to believe Tempo could not produce a a horse that if trained to do so , that could run a classic distance as Terps daughter.
Looking at UR so far he looks good. mentally and physically . We don't know what the future may bring . He is a big colt , so hoping he stays sound so we
can watch his progress.

Robert Fischer
02-28-2012, 02:30 PM
Union Rags looks pretty good to go 10 furlongs to me.

His weakness so far was shown in the juvenile. If those issues are behind him he should have no trouble whatsoever getting the distance.

If they resurface we could see something like a strong win and depending on the competition possibly a win in the derby, and then a reapeat of those negative signs in the preakness with either a win or loss while he bears out to the right and/or goes off his lead.
An ideal betting scenario would be Winning the preakness while bearing out badly. Going for the triple crown in the belmont and knowing he will likely stop.

If he doesn't bear out in the preakness and has won both, I think he wins the belmont as well.

It's going to be physical issues, not cardiovascular issues from genetics that could stop him.

He clearly Is a big strong talented route horse. We've seen him enough that we can burn the pedigree.

Robert Fischer
02-28-2012, 02:32 PM
Algorithms or someone else may just prove to be the better horse as well.

Steve R
02-28-2012, 05:12 PM
I didn't mean that Triple Crown contenders are okay to run like donkeys as 2YO's. But other than Street Sense, where were any of these horses ranked in the weighted year-end handicap? What odds were they in the future books? Some of them were Field animals at this point, that's for sure. Street Sense is the only one of them that won a Gr1 2YO race. And he's the only 2YO champ in the entire Breeders' Cup era and the only BC Juvenile winner to go on to win the Ky Derby. So for me, Union Rags being ranked as the best or second-best 2YO last year doesn't count for much in terms of being the legit Ky Derby favourite.
Funny Cide and Smarty Jones were ineligible for EFH ranking because they didn't compete in open stakes races. However, Funny Cide had the 4th highest 2yo BSF of his year and Smarty Jones had the highest of his. Giacomo was rated 122 on the EFH, Barbaro 114, and Street Sense 127. Mine That Bird was the Canadian juvenile champion and Super Saver was rated at 122. Big Brown raced only once at two and that was on turf, although he won by 11 1/4 with a BSF of 90. Animal Kingdom is about the only one on the list that didn't absolutely shine as a 2yo.

Steve R
02-28-2012, 05:24 PM
Union Rags looks pretty good to go 10 furlongs to me.

His weakness so far was shown in the juvenile. If those issues are behind him he should have no trouble whatsoever getting the distance.

If they resurface we could see something like a strong win and depending on the competition possibly a win in the derby, and then a reapeat of those negative signs in the preakness with either a win or loss while he bears out to the right and/or goes off his lead.
An ideal betting scenario would be Winning the preakness while bearing out badly. Going for the triple crown in the belmont and knowing he will likely stop.

If he doesn't bear out in the preakness and has won both, I think he wins the belmont as well.

It's going to be physical issues, not cardiovascular issues from genetics that could stop him.

He clearly Is a big strong talented route horse. We've seen him enough that we can burn the pedigree.
However, Dixie Union has yet to sire a major winner beyond 9f from about 750 foals. Since 2000, the percentage of main track races longer than 9f is just under 6%, so there has been ample opportunity. In fact, Dixie Union has sired only three major SWs that have won at a distance as far as 9f on the main track and none in a G1. This is true despite his having sired many SWs from mares by top class stamina-oriented sires like A.P. Indy, Deputy Minister, Machiavellian, Smart Strike, Storm Bird and Theatrical. I don't think 10f is a slam dunk for Union Rags, but a lot will depend on the composition of the Derby field. Class and trip can sometimes overcome other deficiencies.

Robert Fischer
02-28-2012, 06:05 PM
However, Dixie Union has yet to sire a major winner beyond 9f from about 750 foals. Since 2000, the percentage of main track races longer than 9f is just under 6%, so there has been ample opportunity. In fact, Dixie Union has sired only three major SWs that have won at a distance as far as 9f on the main track and none in a G1. This is true despite his having sired many SWs from mares by top class stamina-oriented sires like A.P. Indy, Deputy Minister, Machiavellian, Smart Strike, Storm Bird and Theatrical. I don't think 10f is a slam dunk for Union Rags, but a lot will depend on the composition of the Derby field. Class and trip can sometimes overcome other deficiencies.

All that Dixie Union stuff went out the window after his last 3 races.

I usually go crazy with the pedigrees but with Rags he's already proven he's a route horse. I don't have any doubts there.

On the damn side he's got Nijinsky and High Hat(won @ 13f). The Dam side can shore up stamina even if the father is a miler type of sire.

lots of cheap Dixie Unions get a 7f-Mile pretty well. Even 8.5furlongs. This is a stud here.

Now you got me into pedigree.....:D

Robert Fischer
02-28-2012, 06:36 PM
sure -up ?

RXB
02-28-2012, 06:47 PM
Funny Cide and Smarty Jones were ineligible for EFH ranking because they didn't compete in open stakes races. However, Funny Cide had the 4th highest 2yo BSF of his year and Smarty Jones had the highest of his. Giacomo was rated 122 on the EFH, Barbaro 114, and Street Sense 127. Mine That Bird was the Canadian juvenile champion and Super Saver was rated at 122. Big Brown raced only once at two and that was on turf, although he won by 11 1/4 with a BSF of 90. Animal Kingdom is about the only one on the list that didn't absolutely shine as a 2yo.

I could only go back to the 2000 EFH. I found Street Sense #1 rated, Super Saver 6th, Giacomo 7th and Barbaro 11th. The other seven Derby winners over that period were unranked on the EFH.

During the 27 years so far of the BC era I found three G1 winning 2YO's-- Street Sense, Real Quiet and Sea Hero-- that won the Ky Derby. Super Saver, Silver Charm, Thunder Gulch and Go For Gin won G2's as 2YO's. The slight majority of the 27 Ky Derby champs had no 2YO stakes wins of any kind.

The only things that seem to truly matter for Derby contenders as 2YO's are to break their maiden and show some decent ability. Top performances at the highest levels of 2YO racing don't seem to confer any real advantage over later developing talents.

RXB
02-28-2012, 06:48 PM
I don't think 10f is a slam dunk for Union Rags, but a lot will depend on the composition of the Derby field. Class and trip can sometimes overcome other deficiencies.

My feelings exactly.

toussaud
02-28-2012, 07:20 PM
All that Dixie Union stuff went out the window after his last 3 races.

I usually go crazy with the pedigrees but with Rags he's already proven he's a route horse. I don't have any doubts there.

On the damn side he's got Nijinsky and High Hat(won @ 13f). The Dam side can shore up stamina even if the father is a miler type of sire.

lots of cheap Dixie Unions get a 7f-Mile pretty well. Even 8.5furlongs. This is a stud here.

Now you got me into pedigree.....:D
how after winning a mile race he proved all that stuff was out the window?


also, you and others forgot the other if not more important part of his pedigree. Union rags, is genetically built to develop earlier than most horses. No different than the storm cat line of horses. that's what dixie union's do. that's what he female family does. most likely you have or are currently seeing hte best he has to offer. Justwhistledixie, hot dixie chick, were all monsters in janurary.

Spalding No!
02-28-2012, 08:10 PM
also, you and others forgot the other if not more important part of his pedigree. Union rags, is genetically built to develop earlier than most horses. No different than the storm cat line of horses. that's what dixie union's do. that's what he female family does. most likely you have or are currently seeing hte best he has to offer. Justwhistledixie, hot dixie chick, were all monsters in janurary.

Union Rags has been good from the outset, so why would he magically peak in January?

Dixie Union was a top class 2yo. He was also a top class 3yo, winning both the Haskell and the Malibu in the second half of his sophomore year.

Dixie Union leading earner, Get Serious won all his stakes late at 3 and also at 4. His other male Grade 1 winner aside from Union Rags was Dixie Chatter, a top class 2yo who won stakes in the summer of his 3yo year and also at 4.

His female family has multiple instances of black-type in races like the New York Handicap and Sheepshead Bay, both races over 10f for older horses.

Steve R
02-28-2012, 08:17 PM
I could only go back to the 2000 EFH. I found Street Sense #1 rated, Super Saver 6th, Giacomo 7th and Barbaro 11th. The other seven Derby winners over that period were unranked on the EFH.

During the 27 years so far of the BC era I found three G1 winning 2YO's-- Street Sense, Real Quiet and Sea Hero-- that won the Ky Derby. Super Saver, Silver Charm, Thunder Gulch and Go For Gin won G2's as 2YO's. The slight majority of the 27 Ky Derby champs had no 2YO stakes wins of any kind.

The only things that seem to truly matter for Derby contenders as 2YO's are to break their maiden and show some decent ability. Top performances at the highest levels of 2YO racing don't seem to confer any real advantage over later developing talents.
I guess it depends on how you define "highest levels". Notionally, Smarty Jones and Funny Cide (both restricted SWs) were among the very fastest 2yos of their generation but only EFH rules kept them from being broadly acknowledged as such. Any horse ranked on the EFH is rated among the top few dozen of the crop. A few dozen out of thousands sounds like a pretty high level to me.

Robert Fischer
02-28-2012, 08:26 PM
how after winning a mile race he proved all that stuff was out the window?


also, you and others forgot the other if not more important part of his pedigree. Union rags, is genetically built to develop earlier than most horses. No different than the storm cat line of horses. that's what dixie union's do. that's what he female family does. most likely you have or are currently seeing hte best he has to offer. Justwhistledixie, hot dixie chick, were all monsters in janurary.

The manner he handled the distance.
He rated and he outran these horses in the stretch.

If they ran the derby tomorrow at 10f Union Rags would be the most likely winner.

Right now he just has to stay sound, and keep moving forward.

The Florida Derby could be telling.

plainolebill
02-29-2012, 12:02 AM
I watched the race and was impressed until the numbers came back. There are a number of 3yo that would seem to be faster than him with nice pedigrees to boot.

redshift1
02-29-2012, 12:30 AM
I watched the race and was impressed until the numbers came back. There are a number of 3yo that would seem to be faster than him with nice pedigrees to boot.

Modest half (48.11) and by the time they hit the 3/4 in 1:12.05 a triple digit Beyer was unlikely. Remember UR was under a hand ride the entire stretch.

plainolebill
02-29-2012, 01:00 AM
I guess we'll just need to wait and see. I don't subscribe much to the 'under a hand ride, could have run much faster' school of thought. (especially at a short price)

redshift1
02-29-2012, 01:07 AM
El Padrino may go in the Florida Derby, that should provide some clarification speed wise.

CincyHorseplayer
02-29-2012, 02:13 AM
Crcucify me for saying the obvious but RXB has dedicated this thread to crucifying Union Rags for a typical "good early 3yo" horse performance.Nothing more.It's an early year stakes race.But every breeding angle in the universe has to be brought out to satiate one individual's utter and dogged hatred of this colt.Nobody on this entire thread has touted this horse as a world beater,but have been forced to defend him as so.There's something seriously wrong with that.

sammy the sage
02-29-2012, 07:54 AM
I watched the race and was impressed until the numbers came back. There are a number of 3yo that would seem to be faster than him with nice pedigrees to boot.

I'd love to SEE that list NOW...not 3 months hence

Robert Fischer
02-29-2012, 10:43 AM
I guess we'll just need to wait and see. I don't subscribe much to the 'under a hand ride, could have run much faster' school of thought. (especially at a short price)

Agree with you on wait and see

Agree with you to be wary of the "hand-ride" angle

IMO a slow pace is much more real and harder to break the Beyer barrier against.

RXB
02-29-2012, 11:02 AM
Crcucify me for saying the obvious but RXB has dedicated this thread to crucifying Union Rags for a typical "good early 3yo" horse performance.Nothing more.It's an early year stakes race.But every breeding angle in the universe has to be brought out to satiate one individual's utter and dogged hatred of this colt.Nobody on this entire thread has touted this horse as a world beater,but have been forced to defend him as so.There's something seriously wrong with that.

This is just a ridiculous statement. I don't hate any horse. I have no personal feelings toward them.

Union Rags is a nice colt and he ran well; I just think that the performance needs to be kept in perspective. I don't hate Discreet Dancer, either, but I pointed out my doubts about him before the FoY.

plainolebill
03-01-2012, 12:33 AM
I'd love to SEE that list NOW...not 3 months hence

Well YES SIR!

3yo dirt 2 turn race beyers

Secret Circle 102, 98
El Padrino 98, 102
Scatman 101
Out of bounds 99
Bodemeister 99
Mark Valeski 98
I'll have another 96
Longview Drive 97
Fed Biz 97
Cyber Secret 96
Discrete Dancer 96
Hansen 96
Summer Applause 96
Take Charge Indy 96

Union Rags 95

*A couple of these may be 1 turn from GP.

sammy the sage
03-01-2012, 08:12 AM
Well...if you're strictly a Beyer's believer...you're right...thanks for that!

Steve R
03-01-2012, 01:59 PM
I'll throw my figures into the mix. They are for the top three finishers in graded stakes at a mile or more. The figure is in the second column and the more negative the number the better.

FYI, El Padrino earned a -49 in his OCl.

redshift1
03-01-2012, 02:17 PM
Steve R, How did the El Camino Derby end up so high on your list?

Blenheim
03-01-2012, 02:59 PM
Thanks for the PFs.

I took a look at the Graded Stakes Earnings dated 2/29 and I don't see Scatman or Mark Valeski in the top 38. With Alogrithms out, if you sort em' up we've got Secret Circle and El Padrino leading the list. Could be no other way - Baffert on the west coast -vs- Pletcher on the East Coast! :ThmbUp:

Secret Circle looks tough: Undefeated; two-year-old BCJ Sprint winner, ranked at 118 on the EFH and a Dual Qualifier. El Padrino looks equally tough: Ranked at 114 on the EFH, third in the G2 Remsen and winner of the G2 Risen Star. He lost the Remsen and his Maiden by less that a combined two lengths, I believe had he won both, he'd be ranked right there w/the elite two-year-olds. Now were talkin' some horses.:ThmbUp:

Time is runnin' short.

After this month only 34 days until the Big Dance. It will be interesting to see what Baffet does w/Secret Circle. If he goes in the Santa Anita, that gives him 27 days until the Derby. If El Padrino goes in the Florida or the Louisiana that gives him 34/33 days until the Derby.

SteveR what are your thoughts on the breeding of El Padrino when compared to Secret Circle.

Nothin' like the Derby Trail.

Robert Fischer
03-01-2012, 03:09 PM
El Padrino is slower than Union Rags.

Steve R
03-01-2012, 03:36 PM
Steve R, How did the El Camino Derby end up so high on your list?
There are a couple of factors involved. One is that number already includes a component for pace. The other is a race that was hard to deal with.

In the same units as the figures are displayed, the Derby earned a raw number of -52 which is 11 fast. In the other routes, an older male 5K claimer earned a +17 which is 1 slow and a 3yo MSW earned a -17 which is a huge 40 fast. However, the winner of the MSW won off by almost 8 lengths and the 8-5 favorite was well clear of the field in second. BTW, the slow and fast numbers are not fifths. They represent a variant over the entire race and not just at the finish, thus the pace component mentioned above. Anyway, I made a judgment about the MSW which was a mile race (the others were 8 1/2f and 9f). Rather than just throw it out completely (which would have given the Derby a -47), I calculated the final variant by combining the variant derived by including the MSW and also by excluding it. In the former case the variant was 17 fast and in the latter case the variant was 5 fast, for an average of 11 fast and a Derby figure of -41.

I know it was a judgment call but lending equal weight to the MSW didn't seem realistic. I guess that adds a bit of slack to the number, but even including it gives the Derby a -35 which is only a length and a half off the -41 at the distance. Including the MSW and not including it gives a range of -35 to -47 so I just split the difference.

Steve R
03-01-2012, 03:53 PM
Thanks for the PFs.

I took a look at the Graded Stakes Earnings dated 2/29 and I don't see Scatman or Mark Valeski in the top 38. With Alogrithms out, if you sort em' up we've got Secret Circle and El Padrino leading the list. Could be no other way - Baffert on the west coast -vs- Pletcher on the East Coast! :ThmbUp:

Secret Circle looks tough: Undefeated; two-year-old BCJ Sprint winner, ranked at 118 on the EFH and a Dual Qualifier. El Padrino looks equally tough: Ranked at 114 on the EFH, third in the G2 Remsen and winner of the G2 Risen Star. He lost the Remsen and his Maiden by less that a combined two lengths, I believe had he won both, he'd be ranked right there w/the elite two-year-olds. Now were talkin' some horses.:ThmbUp:

Time is runnin' short.

After this month only 34 days until the Big Dance. It will be interesting to see what Baffet does w/Secret Circle. If he goes in the Santa Anita, that gives him 27 days until the Derby. If El Padrino goes in the Florida or the Louisiana that gives him 34/33 days until the Derby.

SteveR what are your thoughts on the breeding of El Padrino when compared to Secret Circle.

Nothin' like the Derby Trail.
I think the difference shows up clearly in the numbers.

El Padrino: Pulpit (AWD 8.37f) over Giant's Causeway (AWD 8.58); 6.5% of Pulpit's major SWs have won at a classic distance. And he has sired over a dozen major SWs from Northern Dancer line mares.

Secret Circle: Eddington (AWD 7.00) over Dixieland Band (AWD 7.58f); so far none of Eddington's runners have won at a classic distance. He's just a third crop sire but Secret Circle is his only SW thus far.

El Padrino was a $210K Keeneland yearling while Secret Circle RNA'd for $17K at the same sale. I guess that says something, although Secret Circle did sell for $165K as a 2yo.

redshift1
03-01-2012, 04:37 PM
There are a couple of factors involved. One is that number already includes a component for pace. The other is a race that was hard to deal with.

In the same units as the figures are displayed, the Derby earned a raw number of -52 which is 11 fast. In the other routes, an older male 5K claimer earned a +17 which is 1 slow and a 3yo MSW earned a -17 which is a huge 40 fast. However, the winner of the MSW won off by almost 8 lengths and the 8-5 favorite was well clear of the field in second. BTW, the slow and fast numbers are not fifths. They represent a variant over the entire race and not just at the finish, thus the pace component mentioned above. Anyway, I made a judgment about the MSW which was a mile race (the others were 8 1/2f and 9f). Rather than just throw it out completely (which would have given the Derby a -47), I calculated the final variant by combining the variant derived by including the MSW and also by excluding it. In the former case the variant was 17 fast and in the latter case the variant was 5 fast, for an average of 11 fast and a Derby figure of -41.

I know it was a judgment call but lending equal weight to the MSW didn't seem realistic. I guess that adds a bit of slack to the number, but even including it gives the Derby a -35 which is only a length and a half off the -41 at the distance. Including the MSW and not including it gives a range of -35 to -47 so I just split the difference.


Thanks, so if I understand what you're saying, you calculated your own variant for GG for February 18th and based your -41 Derby figure by comparing it to other races on the card?

When I looked at your numbers I compared them to the Beyer numbers for the same stakes races and see there's not a 1 to 1 correlation which I'm sure reflects the differences in the two methodologies but I was surprised to see the Sham rated the same -41 especially since Secret Circle came back to record a -68 in the Southwest. So perhaps Daddy Nose Best and Lucky Chappy will improve as well if they continue on like surfaces (turf).


.

Steve R
03-01-2012, 05:06 PM
Thanks, so if I understand what you're saying, you calculated your own variant for GG for February 18th and based your -41 Derby figure by comparing it to other races on the card?

When I looked at your numbers I compared them to the Beyer numbers for the same stakes races and see there's not a 1 to 1 correlation which I'm sure reflects the differences in the two methodologies but I was surprised to see the Sham rated the same -41 especially since Secret Circle came back to record a -68 in the Southwest. So perhaps Daddy Nose Best and Lucky Chappy will improve as well if they continue on like surfaces (turf).


.
I'm not sure I understand the question. I use a variant in the same way variants are used with just final times. The only issue in this case was whether the anomalous variant of the 3yo MSW should be applied as is or not. So I calculated two variants - one with the MSW and one without. Then I took the average of the two. So I guess you could pick -35 or -47 or their average, -41.

I have done a comprehensive comparison of my figures with Beyer's involving almost 600 races and the correlation coefficient is 0.85. One key difference in the methodologies is that, aside from incorporating pace, mine affords useful information about fatigue rates and the efficiency of energy expenditure.

I think the issue of improvement or regression is extremely complicated because the number of potential factors involved (surface, distance, recency, track configuration, conditioning, weather, even intent) is enormous. I know there are all sorts of angles that anticipate moves forward or backward, but I doubt any of them are predictably profitable over the long term.

redshift1
03-01-2012, 05:58 PM
I'm not sure I understand the question. I use a variant in the same way variants are used with just final times. The only issue in this case was whether the anomalous variant of the 3yo MSW should be applied as is or not. So I calculated two variants - one with the MSW and one without. Then I took the average of the two. So I guess you could pick -35 or -47 or their average, -41.


Got it, makes sense now.




I think the issue of improvement or regression is extremely complicated because the number of potential factors involved (surface, distance, recency, track configuration, conditioning, weather, even intent) is enormous. I know there are all sorts of angles that anticipate moves forward or backward, but I doubt any of them are predictably profitable over the long term.


Agreed.

.