Gotham

[Pell Mell]

Anyone have an idea as to who's headed for the Gotham beside Hansen?

[PhantomOnTour]

I think Alpha will run.

[Pell Mell]

I think Alpha will run.

No, he's skipping it for the Wood...

[redshift1]

Possibles:



Pretension
Hansen
Tiger Walk
Consortium
Speightscity

[papillon]

my adonis is going
pletcher is sending one, but i don't know which

[Striker]

No, he's skipping it for the Wood...
Or possibly the Florida Derby.

[Striker]

Possibles:



Pretension
Hansen
Tiger Walk
Consortium
Speightscity
Chief Energy
Dan and Sheila
Done Talking
King and Crusader
Raconteur
Stealcase

[Jasonm921]

No, he's skipping it for the Wood...


They put him on lasix and now he needs 45-60 days between races...didn't see that one coming.

[redshift1]

PP Horse Jockey Trainer ML
1 My Adonis E. Trujillo K. Breen
2 Stealcase L. Contreras M. Casse
3 Finnegans Wake K. Desormeaux D. Romans
4 Pretension J. Santiago C. Grove
5 Maan R. Maragh E. Kenneally
6 Dan and Sheila J. Velazquez T. Pletcher
7 Suns Out Guns Out I. Ortiz, Jr. D. Romans
8 Ranconteur C. Velasquez T. Pletcher
9 King and Crusader M. Luzzi R. Dutrow
10 Side Road A. Garcia K. McLaughlin
11 Done Talking D. Cohen H. Smith
12 Hansen R. Dominguez M. Maker
13 Tiger Walk E. Castro I. Correas

[lamboguy]

this looks like a much better field than the fountain of youth was

[pondman]

Hmmmm...

I don't see a work in N.Y. for Hansen. It worked on the 26th, it's running on the 3rd? How longs it take for the shipping drugs to wear off? To much could have gone wrong on the trip.

Hmmmm...

We got the oil well variable-- Darley Stables. Anyone got a personal line for Side Road? I could go for it at 8-1 or better.

With 13 entered, nobody is afraid to run against Hansen. Should be a big upset if it clunks.

What's the weather report for N.Y.?

[Rise Over Run]

It's supposed to be a wet one on Saturday.

[Dahoss9698]

What a fascinating renewal. I think you have to begin looking at the race, by looking at The Holy Bull from Gulfstream. My Adonis and Hansen both had some trouble early. After the trouble Hansen sped off (too fast) while My Adonis fell far off the pace (15-20 lengths), which is MUCH farther than he has ever been.
Hansen held okay after setting that pace and My Adonis ran on well to just miss second.

I prefer My Adonis in the rematch. He's drawn better than Hansen and Ramon might have to use Hansen a little to get him over. I think My Adonis falls into a nice spot a few lengths off the front and gets it done.

Underneath, i think Side Road and Pretension are usable prices.

[Pell Mell]

What a fascinating renewal. I think you have to begin looking at the race, by looking at The Holy Bull from Gulfstream. My Adonis and Hansen both had some trouble early. After the trouble Hansen sped off (too fast) while My Adonis fell far off the pace (15-20 lengths), which is MUCH farther than he has ever been.
Hansen held okay after setting that pace and My Adonis ran on well to just miss second.

I prefer My Adonis in the rematch. He's drawn better than Hansen and Ramon might have to use Hansen a little to get him over. I think My Adonis falls into a nice spot a few lengths off the front and gets it done.

Underneath, i think Side Road and Pretension are usable prices.

Wow! Hoss and I finally agree on something..LOL...My Adonis may have even won that race with a good start because as Hoss says, he actually has good speed and showed he can close also...another one that looked impressive is Done Talking...was coming strong in the Remsen where O'Prado Again won and it was close at the end with a very speedy Souper Speedy and El Padrino...been working very well at LRL and draws Cohen who runs great at AQU...looks to be the best race this year by far...most of them have pedigrees that qualify them for derby distance...JMO

[theguarantee]

Call me crazy but I like the maiden...

[pondman]

After the trouble Hansen sped off (too fast) .

They've been experimenting with headsets trying to get this horse to be easier on the gate, but he just wants to blast out of it. I don't think a change in blinkers is going to stop this horse from wanting to burn himself early.

Anyone have any opinion on going from Gp at 80 F to 60%-80% chance of rain and T-Storm? I don't have that kind of data, but have other horses done it. Seems like the weather benefits locals.

[Blenheim]

Tough one.

Nice purse the 400K but only a GIII . . . Almost every conceivable way to go in this one - horses shippin in; stretching out; from grass to dirt; coming off a lay off; dropping down in distance; running equal distance; training on the surface; at a sister track on the training track . . . you name it. I think Ainslie would say there are too many unknowns in this one . . . would call it "unplayable" and I would agree.

Nevernonetheless and just for the smell of it, I'll give it a go.

:8: :11: :10:

Best of racin' luck.

Nothin' like the Derby Trail. Lookin' forward to the Gotham!

[holmmd]

Will be passing on the 10th but like my chances of beating Caleb's Posse in the 9th. Boxing 145.

[redshift1]

With about one-third of the field I might be able to pick the winner. I think the race is wide open , all is predicated on Hansen getting run down after the charge from the outside position on a muddy track. My Adonis could get a nice trip but I'll toss him as well.

In no particular order:

King and Crusader
Tigerwalk
Maan
Raconteur

.

[Tee]

I'll be keeping an eye on Stealcase.

[classhandicapper]

What a fascinating renewal. I think you have to begin looking at the race, by looking at The Holy Bull from Gulfstream. My Adonis and Hansen both had some trouble early. After the trouble Hansen sped off (too fast) while My Adonis fell far off the pace (15-20 lengths), which is MUCH farther than he has ever been.
Hansen held okay after setting that pace and My Adonis ran on well to just miss second.

I prefer My Adonis in the rematch. He's drawn better than Hansen and Ramon might have to use Hansen a little to get him over. I think My Adonis falls into a nice spot a few lengths off the front and gets it done.



I would probably make the same play except that I don't trust the figure from the Holy Bull.

That figure looked about 10 points too fast to me right from the start. Then I heard that Thorograph had the race a few lengths slower. Now, the first horse out of the race didn't run back to its figure.

Knock 10 points off that race (give or take) and the Gothom looks a little more wide open and I might want to spread around a little if I try to beat Hansen. Maybe the figure is correct, but I'm not keying on anyone based on that assumption until there is some verification.

[theguarantee]

The more I've looked I think either Hansen is going to run his race and win or My Adonis will turn the tables or Suns Out Guns Out will stun them all.

I just really don't think these are that good.

Suns Out Guns Out was wide every step last race. Paco took the whip out ridiculously early and I'm surprised how well he kept on in what I thought was a pretty good field...and going 1 1/8. Other than the turf horse none of these come out of a 1 1/8th race and of the few that have tried I think SOGO's effort was the best.

Obviously, not going that far here but I still think will be coming late at bomber odds.

[classhandicapper]

I have mixed feelings on Hansen. I thought he ran a huge race in the Juvenile, but I'm not entirely convinced about him. Some speed horses that have been running on synthetic "freak" first time dirt but don't hold that form. His first race back this year was good, but I think one key to figuring out where this horse is now is how fast that race actually was. I don't trust the Beyer.

IMO the key is going to be whether the other riders simply concede the lead to him. If they do, it could be over regardless of whether he's as good as the Juvenile made him look or not. If they run enough to force him wide first turn and he has to be used a little early, IMO he can be "had".

[theguarantee]

^Yeah, I mean there are big question marks about Hansen in my eyes, but it's not as if this trip should really be something to worry about. The big factor here is clearly the post to me. If they let him clear, I will be very surprised if it's not lights out. But if they make him run early like they should, I think it really opens up what looks like a wide open race.

The more I watched the My Adonis replay I just can't decide. On the one hand, he's making a very nice run, but it was after doing no type of running early as Hansen stumbled and then ran off...and as much as he is blowing past him after the wire...it did happen after the wire. Not sure the price is going to be enough to warrant playing...

But then again I like the maiden so what do I know...

[Striker]

They've been experimenting with headsets trying to get this horse to be easier on the gate, but he just wants to blast out of it. I don't think a change in blinkers is going to stop this horse from wanting to burn himself early.

Anyone have any opinion on going from Gp at 80 F to 60%-80% chance of rain and T-Storm? I don't have that kind of data, but have other horses done it. Seems like the weather benefits locals.
Changing bits for this race also. I believe Hansen has raced with the bit they are going with for the Gotham, but am not sure on that.

[Tom]

Horses shipping to NY this time of year from hot Florida have historically done well.

[tbwinner]

Horses shipping to NY this time of year from hot Florida have historically done well.

The water is a bit different up north. Or is it different down south?

In any case, I don't know how much more anti-Hansen I can get. It is only being further fueled by Dr. Hansen's blog posts :bang:
Ever since the BC win, I've thought putting this horse on the Derby trail will only end up in disappointments. I think he'll prove to be a turf/poly horse, IF he's not ruined by all these Derby dirt preps. Supposedly he's only 70% "cranked" (Hansen's words)...we'll see.

I sorta like Maan, I know he's only been sprinting but he's been finishing with good energy. He should like the off track too. First glance at his breeding he should like running long but his mother won sprinting dirt and turf only, so I'm not really sure. Will take a stab at the price...

[Blenheim]

It'll be interesting to see if Hansen has the right stuff. If he is what they think he is they likely would have kept him in Florida. The fact they are shipping him out to race in softer company may indicate they have their doubts. I've seen that Breeders Cup ruin a few horses . . . Guess we'll see.
~
I thought the most important factor in handicapping this race is whether or not the shippers can adjust to the inner surface at AQ. I thought the shippers might have a marginal edge in class and a few show an edge in condition, but I thought any edge in class or condition would be nullified by the uncertainty of their ability to adjust to the new surface.

I took another pass over the past performances and I think the one to look out for may be the Dutrow horse. He shows a winning race over a good surface at a mile, comes back to win the Winkfield in a drop in distance and gets a break w/five solid works on the surface. Looks to me like Tricky Dick has him set to go out front and run off with this one, maybe earn his ticket to the Big Dance. The speed bias for the meet is 67%,for the week is 75%, the slop will only help. :cool:

I will revise my picks:

:8:/:9:
:11: :10:

Best of racin' luck.

Nothin' like the Derby Trail. Lookin' forward to the Gotham.

[JimmyQ]

Call me crazy but I like the maiden...
You're CRAZY!! LOL
Good Luck,
JimmyQ

[PhantomOnTour]

Maan and Pretension are two longshots that i think can crash the party.

Although his two sprint running lines paint him as more of an off the pace type, he is actually an even runner by the figs and he should stretch out well. Like many, his figs are in that cluster below Hansen. Rajiv seems to come through for me a lot.

Pretension is always there and ran a nice enough numnber in his last to be given a shot. Track was very slow the day of his last race and he stalked a fast pace & edged clear, albeit vs state breds.

Will spread wider in the win hole trying trying to beat Hansen (his Derby hopes will take a big hit tomorrow, imo) but the above two will definitely be on my exotics tickets.

[Ocala Mike]

Tough race; no cakewalk for HANSEN. Going to give TIGER WALK a long look, but he's kind of marooned out there as no. :13: .


Ocala Mike

[Track Phantom]

Hansen changing bit and blinkers off, 12 post and likely trying to rate a tad. All of those things are new and makes him a great bet against here.

Race might fall apart. I have #2 Stealcase on top but am a slightly concerned after watching replay of last when he couldn't have had a better trip. However, word has been out for a while and willing to give him a shot here.

I do agree with other poster who liked some things related to #7 Suns Out Guns Out. It is a maiden but good speed figures, two long races and catches a field of possible heavy-legged runners late. Might be motoring at boxcars. Great blowout a few days ago, too.


By the way-- am I crazy to think the other five might let #2 Royal Currier all alone in the Tom Fool? I would think the other speed candidates would be saving something for Caleb Posse late. Usually when that happens, it gets lazy on the lead.

[Robert Fischer]

MY ADONIS is the wiseguy horse.
He's ok, but I would hate to play him. Will be overbet.

Hansen should win this easily. Very little has been made of the fact that Hansen stumbled at the start in the Holy Bull and then immediately used horse to make the lead. Today, assuming a clean break he easily controls the pace and figures a perfect ride. There are no Algorithms or Union Rags in this field.

Done Talking is a better horse than My Adonis. Nobody is catching runaway Hansen, but if Hansen quits DT has a good shot to win.

Dan and Sheila is a contender.

My Adonis, Finnegans Wake, and Tiger Walk make up the fringe contenders.

[Tom]

This field is oozing with mediocrity. I have no qualms whatsoever about post 12. Hansen is the best horse in the field.

My Adonis is the question mark - how will he run today? If he runs back to his previous races prior to the last one, I think Hansen eats him up in the second fraction. But MA ran a monster F2 after the trouble, and tied his best ever F3. I just think he needs to improve too much to be worth what will probably be under-layed odds.

Two That will not surprise me with a big race are Pletcher's Raconteur and Dutrow's King and Crusader. I will have both of them covered today.

[PhantomOnTour]

Here's the play (and it's quite a spread):

EX
:8: :11: w :4: :5:

EX
:4: :5: w :1: :4: :5: :8: :10: :11: :12: :13:

WIN
:5: :8:

If you don't like Hansen in the win hole i gotta believe a spread is in order. Lotsa overlaid prices...exotics should be big.
I will be playing a few 10cent supers here but don't wanna bore folks with all the numbers...know that Hansen won't be on top on any of my tix though.
He's the fastest (as a 2yr old), but my figs have Raconteur and Pretension as running the best last out numbers this year.
Good luck...tough race.

[Robert Fischer]

Hansen looks a little lighter today.

not emaciated but he may have lost a few lbs but on the flipside is carrying his weight well.

Found a new way to do it today. My Adonis ran very well. Worth the talk.

No excuse for D&S #6

[Robert Fischer]

MY ADONIS is the wiseguy horse.
He's ok, but I would hate to play him. Will be overbet.

Hansen should win this easily. Very little has been made of the fact that Hansen stumbled at the start in the Holy Bull and then immediately used horse to make the lead. Today, assuming a clean break he easily controls the pace and figures a perfect ride. There are no Algorithms or Union Rags in this field.

Done Talking is a better horse than My Adonis. Nobody is catching runaway Hansen, but if Hansen quits DT has a good shot to win.

Dan and Sheila is a contender.

My Adonis, Finnegans Wake, and Tiger Walk make up the fringe contenders.


SONNNNAAFVA BEEEEEE!!!! :bang:

[KirisClown]

tPkNjsEDR78

[Pell Mell]

Rated kindly....very impressive!

[toussaud]

i know he didn't beat squat.. but he looked quite good doing it. he was still running at the end. maybe that's the ticket for him to rate

[Blenheim]

Congratulations to the winner today in the Gotham, he showed the right stuff. And a good fine job by the track Superintendent there at AQ as they did a fine right job in getting that track nice and tight before the race.

Once again, congratulations to Hansen and his connections.

[RXB]

Congratulations to the winner today in the Gotham, he showed the right stuff. And a good fine job by the track Superintendent there at AQ as they did a fine right job in getting that track nice and tight before the race.

Once again, congratulations to Hansen and his connections.

I agree, I think the track was a bit faster for those last three races; maybe .6 of a second for the Gotham compared to earlier routes. But doing some quick and dirty calcs, that still puts Hansen at something probably around a 103 Beyer.

[Robert Fischer]

Another mixed bag from Hansen.
Failed to explode early as is his trademark(By design? ). Rated kindly, but then was very green while having to actually maneuver a stalking trip. Much the best when allowing for the wide first turn. While I tend to think he will get exposed eventually as he approaches the Grade I level of competition, what I will say is that this new found ability to press and pounce will bode well in general at levels where he does fit.

[RXB]

I agree, I think the track was a bit faster for those last three races; maybe .6 of a second for the Gotham compared to earlier routes. But doing some quick and dirty calcs, that still puts Hansen at something probably around a 103 Beyer.

Prelim Beyer is listed at 95. So they're claiming that the track sped up by 11 Beyer points (1.2 seconds at 8.5f) between the Top Flight and the Gotham. Specifically, from the other numbers it looks like they're saying it sped up by several points immediately between the 6th and 7th races and then another few points just before the Tom Fool and Gotham. Then reversed and slowed again by several points for the last race.

Write me down as "skeptical." I don't make dirt or poly figs anymore and perhaps overestimated the route variant by a length or two when I analyzed quickly, but on second blush I would estimate it at 100. 95 is too low.

[RXB]

Prelim Beyer is listed at 95. So they're claiming that the track sped up by 11 Beyer points (1.2 seconds at 8.5f) between the Top Flight and the Gotham. Specifically, from the other numbers it looks like they're saying it sped up by several points immediately between the 6th and 7th races and then another few points just before the Tom Fool and Gotham. Then reversed and slowed again by several points for the last race.


Not sure what I was thinking here; the last race is actually in line with the Tom Fool number so they didn't readjust. When the simple math fools me it's time to quit. With a night's sleep I might think they're right about the Gotham number, too.

[CincyHorseplayer]

No great shakes here.I didn't like anybody.But I thought at 2 minutes to post the 1-12,12-1 exactas at 19.00 and 37.00 that usually are 6.00 and 11.00 were decent.I lost my win bet on Adonis but eh easy exacta bought the beer tonight!

Did anybody see this as easy money?

[duncan04]

No great shakes here.I didn't like anybody.But I thought at 2 minutes to post the 1-12,12-1 exactas at 19.00 and 37.00 that usually are 6.00 and 11.00 were decent.I lost my win bet on Adonis but eh easy exacta bought the beer tonight!

Did anybody see this as easy money?

Sure did. The price for the exacta was a gift!! :jump:

[Bennie]

made a couple of bucks myself with a 12 with 1,13 exacta key, but was hoping the 13 would follow Hansen out of the gate but alas he did not and was too far back and had too much to do but came on late to get nosed for 3rd which cost me the tri but always next week. San Felipe could be a very exciting race if all possibles run. Same connections on a few and some cross entered in the Rebel the following week will keep some out but possibles are Creative Cause, Fed Biz,Out of Bounds,Empire Way,Saber Cat, Liason and Rousing Sermon.
I love this time of year!:)

[classhandicapper]

I think that was about as much as you could hope for from Hansen.

He wound up getting hung wide because of the post, but instead of running a a kamikaze first part, he relaxed off the pace and still kicked clear. It also looked like he still had some energy in reserve after the finish despite being 3-4 wide first turn.

I hated him going 10F before the race. Now that he has demonstrated he's rateable, I just dislike him going 10F. I still don't think he wants to go that far. But he'll probably become a very good miler/middle distance horse assuming he keeps going forward.

[classhandicapper]

By the way, I don't think the result of the Gotham did anything to support the fast Beyer figure given to the Holy Bull. It's hard to make perfect comparisons between the trips because we are talking about various combinations of gate issues, pace issues, ground loss etc... but both Hansen and My Adonis were given slower figures for the Gotham than the Holy Bull despite the fact that they are both 3YOs that you would expect to be moving forward and IMO had easier (My Adonis) or similar trips. I still think the figure for the Holy Bull was too fast (and by definition Algorithms potentially overrated).

IMO the real lesson of that result is that no one from the rest of the field could move forward enough to even threaten the top two.

[CincyHorseplayer]

By the way, I don't think the result of the Gotham did anything to support the fast Beyer figure given to the Holy Bull. It's hard to make perfect comparisons between the trips because we are talking about various combinations of gate issues, pace issues, ground loss etc... but both Hansen and My Adonis were given slower figures for the Gotham than the Holy Bull despite the fact that they are both 3YOs that you would expect to be moving forward and IMO had easier (My Adonis) or similar trips. I still think the figure for the Holy Bull was too fast (and by definition Algorithms potentially overrated).

IMO the real lesson of that result is that no one from the rest of the field could move forward enough to even threaten the top two.

I just want to see these horses run clean trips on a fast track.Hansen with his running style might get better on a fast track,or worse because of his wet pedigree.It sounds like you are ready for this field to be whittled down.Me too.