Dow Ready to Make a Double Top

[Ocala Mike]

We were here at 13,000 plus about a year ago. If you are a technician, and believe in charts, looks like a perfect double top formation.

Need to bust through 13,250 for an upside move, otherwise get out the crying towels and pray that your bungee cord holds because it could be a long trip to the bottom (8,000?)


Ocala Mike

[lamboguy]

what do you think that would do to the oil price?

[BlueShoe]

With a Mideast war seemingly just around the corner and gas prices still going nuts, those growls from the Bear are getting louder and louder. Bungee cord? Might need more like a steel cable to hold up on the ride down.

[Marshall Bennett]

Market's inflated as hell. Short term players stand to profit, but any other considerations is like tampering with a time bomb. Inflation, which is almost a certainty in the next couple of years, will take its toll without a doubt.

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't see this market turning around and dying here...why would it?

As long as the fed continues to keep interest rates near zero and the economy continues to show signs of improvement, why would folks start bailing on the market?

I don't think this market turns around and dies based on technicals like a double top...there has to be a fundamental event to make it turn around and die...

Like something going very wrong in Europe...or some other major crisis (war with Iran?...unexpected economic turmoil in the US?)

If everything stays as is, this market will continue to float up IMO...

[badcompany]

I strongly believe in never having a opinion about the market, because if you're wrong, your bias could cost you a lot of money.

Ironically, on the business networks, you almost never hear the question, "What if you're wrong?"

[PaceAdvantage]

I strongly believe in never having a opinion about the market, because if you're wrong, your bias could cost you a lot of money.

Ironically, on the business networks, you almost never hear the question, "What if you're wrong?"Me neither, in terms of my actual trading...

But it's fun to speculate in public....

When all else fails though, always remember, when everyone else is selling, you buy, and when everyone else is buying, you sell...that ALWAYS seems to work..

[Robert Goren]

I don't see this market turning around and dying here...why would it?

As long as the fed continues to keep interest rates near zero and the economy continues to show signs of improvement, why would folks start bailing on the market?

I don't think this market turns around and dies based on technicals like a double top...there has to be a fundamental event to make it turn around and die...

Like something going very wrong in Europe...or some other major crisis (war with Iran?...unexpected economic turmoil in the US?)

If everything stays as is, this market will continue to float up IMO... As smart of an assessment of current situation as you will find anywhere. They should have you as co-host on Squawk Box.

[PaceAdvantage]

There's nowhere else to put your money if you want any sort of half-assed chance at a decent return...

Of course, earnings from retailers I believe are coming out this week...I guess if those earnings really suck, the market could take a nice hit...but even still, I think it will be temporary should that happen...

[badcompany]

Pardon me for not being a fan of forecasts and predictions by ANYONE.

___________________

Bob Doll's 10 Predictions for 2008
January 11, 2008

Robert C. Doll, Vice Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of Global Equities at BlackRock, Inc., remains cautiously optimistic

Stocks achieve a new all-time high in 2008 as price/earnings ratios improve. Equity valuations (i.e., P/E ratios) have improved only modestly since mid-2006 after experiencing several years of declines. We believe there is room for further improvement, particularly given our view that earnings are likely to be weak. The combination of attractive valuations, positive (albeit slower) levels of economic growth, subdued inflation, low long-term interest rates, strong corporate balance sheets and an accommodative Federal Reserve should help push stocks to a new high at some point during the year — breaking through the records last set in October.
___________________

In case you're not familiar with Blackrock:

As of December 31, 2011, BlackRock's assets under management total US$3.513 trillion across equity, fixed income, cash management, alternative investment, real estate and advisory strategies.
__________________

How much do you guys have under management?:lol:

[Robert Goren]

At one time I use to eat breakfast with a guy who invested a local bank's funds overnight. Another breakfast eater asked him what he would do if he lost them. He quipped that he would say he was sorry and start looking for another job.

[badcompany]

Here's my all-time favorite prediction:


The Future of Business
What stories will dominate the financial world in 2008? Our Wall Street guru makes his predictions.
By James J. Cramer
Published Dec 30, 2007

1. Goldman Sachs makes more money than every other brokerage firm in New York combined and finishes the year at $300 a share. Not a prediction—an inevitability. In fact, it’s only January, and I think it’s already come true.
_________


When Cramer gave out this gem, GS, was trading at 220. It ended the year at 80. So, Cramer was wrong by the entire market cap of the stock.

[Robert Goren]

Pardon me for not being a fan of forecasts and predictions by ANYONE.

___________________

Bob Doll's 10 Predictions for 2008
January 11, 2008

Robert C. Doll, Vice Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of Global Equities at BlackRock, Inc., remains cautiously optimistic

Stocks achieve a new all-time high in 2008 as price/earnings ratios improve. Equity valuations (i.e., P/E ratios) have improved only modestly since mid-2006 after experiencing several years of declines. We believe there is room for further improvement, particularly given our view that earnings are likely to be weak. The combination of attractive valuations, positive (albeit slower) levels of economic growth, subdued inflation, low long-term interest rates, strong corporate balance sheets and an accommodative Federal Reserve should help push stocks to a new high at some point during the year — breaking through the records last set in October.
___________________

In case you're not familiar with Blackrock:

As of December 31, 2011, BlackRock's assets under management total US$3.513 trillion across equity, fixed income, cash management, alternative investment, real estate and advisory strategies.
__________________

How much do you guys have under management?:lol:CNBC has Doll and several other people from BlackRock on all the time. There is a wide divergence in the opinions expressed by the various representatives of BlackRock. On a rare occasion somebody from CNBC will point that to the current guest. They get a bunch of mumble jumble that translates into great minds disagree from time to time.

[lamboguy]

so far, the federal reserve have pumped about $6 trillion into the economy, if they need more, they will print more.

the dow might read something like 25,000. but that doesn't mean a thing unless you can eliminate the chop out of this raked poker game. the way to do that as far as i can see is for natural gas to step up and take the place of oil.

natural gas had a high of $13 years ago, today its trading at $2.50. everyone is saying there is a glut of natural gas, the same like they all said about oil @$10 per barrel. the same thing with gold when it was $300, everyone thought it was going back to $35.

[badcompany]

CNBC has Doll and several other people from BlackRock on all the time. There is a wide divergence in the opinions expressed by the various representatives of BlackRock. On a rare occasion somebody from CNBC will point that to the current guest. They get a bunch of mumble jumble that translates into great minds disagree from time to time.

Business News is basically ESPN for financial market geeks, like myself.

That said, I would describe all the jabber you hear there as "a whole lotta nothing." Certainly, nothing of any value from an investing standpoint.

[badcompany]

Me neither, in terms of my actual trading...

But it's fun to speculate in public....

When all else fails though, always remember, when everyone else is selling, you buy, and when everyone else is buying, you sell...that ALWAYS seems to work..

It sounds good in theory, but, in practice, you never really know when this is happening.

Warren Buffet gave a buy call at dow 9000, basically because the market was off 40% from it's high of ~14k. The market went to 6500 before it turned around. So, even an all-time great like Buffett missed the bottom by more than 25%.

His mentor, Benjamin Graham wasn't so lucky. In his day, the market went down 40% and fundamental analysts like him doubled up. Unfortunately, the down continued downward until it was ~90% from its high, and Ben got cleaned out.

[Robert Goren]

Business News is basically ESPN for financial market geeks, like myself.

That said, I would describe all the jabber you hear there as "a whole lotta nothing." Certainly, nothing of any value from an investing standpoint. I got hooked on them in Sept of 2006 while I spent a month in the hospital. During that time a hedge fund made a bad bet on natural gas futures. They lost 5 billion in a week and 6.5 billion over all. That was over 65% of their total assets. One of the talking heads on CNBC remarked once that they were just one good cold snap from being right.

[PaceAdvantage]

It sounds good in theory, but, in practice, you never really know when this is happening.

Warren Buffet gave a buy call at dow 9000, basically because the market was off 40% from it's high of ~14k. The market went to 6500 before it turned around. So, even an all-time great like Buffett missed the bottom by more than 25%.

His mentor, Benjamin Graham wasn't so lucky. In his day, the market went down 40% and fundamental analysts like him doubled up. Unfortunately, the down continued downward until it was ~90% from its high, and Ben got cleaned out.I know...my indicators are much more ordinary people. For instance, when a guy in my office bailed on his apple shares, I instinctively knew it was time to buy.

When my Dad sold a whole bunch of his stock market holdings in early 2009, I again knew the time was right to start buying.

You have to pay attention to the ordinary man...when he or she is scared into bailing or is buying with abandon, it's time to start going the other way.

(Luckily, my Dad made back much of what he lost in the subsequent run up...I keep reminding him not to make the same mistake twice...)

[badcompany]

I know...my indicators are much more ordinary people. For instance, when a guy in my office bailed on his apple shares, I instinctively knew it was time to buy.


It's funny you say that. Last spring, when Silver was on fire, I was walking by a Church up the block from my building. Two elderly women were outside talking. One said to the other, "Did you know Silver is $40 an ounce?"

I thought to myself, "Looks like Silver is about to tank."

[Robert Goren]

There is saying on Wall Street "The small investors are always wrong". There used to be an indicator that some investors used that involved odd lot volume. I do not believe it used any more.

[lamboguy]

what i have learned from personal experience:

THE JOB OF THE MARKET IS TO TAKE THE MOST AMOUNT OF MONEY AWAY FROM THE MOST AMOUNT OF PEOPLE IN THE SHORTEST AMOUNT OF TIME

(horse racing too)

[badcompany]

When you open up the hood of the stock market what you really have is a merchandising operation, not unlike a used car dealership.

A used car dealer wants to buy cars from the public at a price he believes is wholesale and sell those cars back to the public at retail.

A broker/dealer like Goldman Sachs does the exact same thing with stocks.

[lamboguy]

what do you guys think of high frequency trading?

[Valuist]

Not sure if the Dow is that great an indicator. I believe the S & P 500 is.

If you look at a chart over a longer period of time, we could very well be in the right shoulder portion of a head and shoulders. The left shoulder would've been the move over 1500 in the S & P in early 2000. The head became the top of about 1575 in fall 2007. Right now the S & P is at 1362 so we could see another 10% upside. At that point, all bets are off.

There's a LOT of people who were in heavy in the market in fall 2007 then rode it down but have watched it claw back. Some stocks have surpassed their fall 2007 levels but more have not. Have to think there's a number of people just waiting to get back to those levels so they can dump.

[badcompany]

what do you guys think of high frequency trading?

In the "old days" most of the trading during the day consisted of traders/brokers fighting each other for nickels and dimes.

Today, its the computer alogrithms of the firms battling each other over pennies and fractions thereof.

IMO, it's the same sh*t, different day.

[lamboguy]

back in the late 80's there was SOS trading where the market makers put up 1000 shares at a time to be traded from both sides.. the game changed though when they dropped the amount of shares to 100.

[Valuist]

We know that a debt crisis is coming. We just don't know when. I'm not just talking about Europe, and lets face it, they haven't solved anything. We know its coming here as well. Look at the number of states that are broke.

So if my post (2 above) is correct, we still melt up another 10% or so higher, then look out. That would fully constitute the right shoulder and then it would only be a matter of how big the correction would be, or would it be an outright crash. I would expect a MINIMUM of 30% correction from the right shoulder.

[Marshall Bennett]

We know that a debt crisis is coming. We just don't know when. I'm not just talking about Europe, and lets face it, they haven't solved anything. We know its coming here as well. Look at the number of states that are broke.

There lies the million dollar question (or multi-trillion)....when? Many experts agree that it's already started. There are a lot of gloom & doom predictions on how badly we'll fall. The fact that the feds have already said interest rate will remain the same throughout the year can't be good. Doesn't a rise usually indicate recovery to some degree?
I truly believe people in general including top government officials, are unwilling to understand how awfully bad we could get hurt, and are basically doing little or nothing about it.
Google "normalcy bias". There in lies a major factor, if not everything.

[hcap]

http://s3.amazonaws.com/wamo/pa/02-22-12KilgoreChart.jpg

[bigmack]

http://s3.amazonaws.com/wamo/pa/02-22-12KilgoreChart.jpg
What the hell is that?

[hcap]

What the hell is that?
It is called a "chart". C-H-A-R-T

If by chance you missed "charts" I might have posted previously hinting that extremo conservatives are usually full of shit, this one could be particularly irritating to republican free marketeers.

[hcap]

Here is another one depicting an extreme Socialistic attempt to surreptitiously lead our country into the "Jaws of Communism".A betrayal by by a Rino and traitor

http://visually.visually.netdna-cdn.com/USInterstatesasaSubwayMap_4f32a6dc9a6f0_w897.jpg

[bigmack]

Here is another one depicting an extreme Socialistic attempt to surreptitiously lead our country into the "Jaws of Communism".A betrayal by by a Rino and traitor
Talk about tin foil hats...

I still laugh. Over half of all Dem's believed 9/11 to be an inside job.

Oh, and blood for oil.

BOO!

[hcap]

Ther Communist in the White House has brought our glorious Corporate Empire to it's knees

http://www.motherjones.com/files/images/blog_corporate_tax_rate.jpg



http://www.motherjones.com/files/images/blog_corporate_tax_percent_gdp_2005.jpg

See this is what you get installing a community organizer as President

[badcompany]

Corporations earn their revenue through a peaceful exchange of goods and services.

Governments take their "revenue" by a threat of force.

Yet, so-called Progressive Pinkos hate Corporations with a passion and want to give all their revenue to the Government.

[hcap]

Corporations earn their revenue through a peaceful exchange of goods and services.

Governments take their "revenue" by a threat of force.

Yet, so-called Progressive Pinkos hate Corporations with a passion and want to give all their revenue to the Government.Gee, aw shucks, I guess once a Commie always a Commie?

Too bad the facts don't support your La-La Land fantasies. Besides, anyone who evidently worships and sucks at the teat of Laissez-faire, should not be calling themselves "badcompany"

[badcompany]

Gee, aw shucks, I guess once a Commie always a Commie?

Too bad the facts don't support your La-La Land fantasies. Besides, anyone who evidently worships and sucks at the teat of Laissez-faire, should not be calling themselves "badcompany"

Oh, really. Supposin' you don't fill out your 1040 this year. Is it a lie that sooner or later there will be armed men coming to your house?

Conversely, what will happen if you don't buy the latest IPHONE?

The truth doesn't set you free as much as it hurts, Chartboy.

[Robert Goren]

Oh, really. Supposin' you don't fill out your 1040 this year. Is it a lie that sooner or later there will be armed men coming to your house?

Conversely, what will happen if you don't buy the latest IPHONE?

The truth doesn't set you free as much as it hurts, Chartboy.If nobody paid their taxes, there would still be armed men coming to your house, but they wouldn't be from government and they'd take a lot more than the boys from the government do.

[bigmack]

If nobody paid their taxes, there would still be armed men coming to your house, but they wouldn't be from government and they'd take a lot more than the boys from the government do.
You mean they'd be K.nocking on the door because they were cut-off from the big hogan, hooter, chacha, mamoid &/or tit of Government moola? Like so many out there. Know anyone like that? ;)

I wonder what would happen if 'the haves' had guns and the 'have nots' had guns? Neat to think about, huh Goren?

Wrap your brain around it, dude. Can the few rich buy more guns than the vast poor? Or can the rich man buy a less-rich guy to pull a trigger to help him keep what he has?

Surely he would, only if he promised the less-rich guy to "a taste of wealth."

So mush to think about. Your brain must be tired.

[NJ Stinks]

Zinger #1:

It is called a "chart". C-H-A-R-T

If by chance you missed "charts" I might have posted previously hinting that extremo conservatives are usually full of shit, this one could be particularly irritating to republican free marketeers.

Zinger #2:

If nobody paid their taxes, there would still be armed men coming to your house, but they wouldn't be from government and they'd take a lot more than the boys from the government do.

Boys. Boys. Take it easy on these guys. It's bad enough that they ain't got nobody to beat Barack. Bursting more bubbles is simply unsportsmanlike. :p

[plainolebill]

I hate to change the subject to the original topic (kinda) but........

If I had to make a forecast I'd say stay longish in the market but I'm sure not all in.

I heard an interview a few years ago with Jason Zwieg where he addressed inflation/deflation. His view, which made sense to me (at least with my limited mental horsepower), was that if you are retired inflation is the biggest threat to your portfolio and during your working years it's deflation. So that's more or less how I tilt my investments - I'm retired - I have lots of energy related stocks, some physical PMs and a fair amount of cash.

Natural gas is a tough call, I don't see it turning around soon because of all the drilling for NGL and the incidental gas from oil drilling. The demand can't rise that quick either. If we start exporting it or the Canadians do, that will turn it around. In the interim it's good for the economy to have the price low.

[Robert Goren]

Working or retired, deflation is worst thing that happen to you. Deflation will cause the stock market to crash big time and it will stay crashed until the deflation is over. There have been plently of cases of over the years and the results are always the same. Commerce grinds to halt because the price will be cheaper tomorrow. Nobody buys anything that they absolutely don't need to survive. The only good investment during deflation is currency, but there is no safe place to store it.

[badcompany]

Zinger #1:



Zinger #2:



Boys. Boys. Take it easy on these guys. It's bad enough that they ain't got nobody to beat Barack. Bursting more bubbles is simply unsportsmanlike. :p

We're still waiting for you to list all those evil Corporations that don't pay taxes.

How about Walmart? Nah, they "only" paid 7 billion in taxes in 2011.

Perhaps the evil Exxon? That's no good, either. They "only" paid about 30 billion.

Maybe you should just go with the other inane theory posted here, recently, that Corporations don't really pay taxes, as they just pass the cost on to the consumer.

Of course, that begs the question, if a company can just raise prices without an accompanying loss of revenue, why would they wait for a tax increase to do so? I mean, they are greedy Capitalists, and guys like that wouldn't just leave money on table, now, would they?

[BlueShoe]

It is called a "chart". C-H-A-R-T.
Hey, we horseplayers know what a chart is. :ThmbUp: It is a narrative displayed in writing and numbers describing in detail the running of a horse race. :cool:

[RaceBookJoe]

Working or retired, deflation is worst thing that happen to you. Deflation will cause the stock market to crash big time and it will stay crashed until the deflation is over. There have been plently of cases of over the years and the results are always the same. Commerce grinds to halt because the price will be cheaper tomorrow. Nobody buys anything that they absolutely don't need to survive. The only good investment during deflation is currency, but there is no safe place to store it.

Have to disagree...i would pick deflation over stagflation any day. rbj

[NJ Stinks]

We're still waiting for you to list all those evil Corporations that don't pay taxes.



Let's take a look at the biggest and most successful corporations first. Surely, these big guys are being nailed to the wall with the 35% U.S. corporate tax rate.
_________________________________________

Many companies pay no income taxes, study finds

By Charles Riley @CNNMoney (http://twitter.com/CNNmoney) November 3, 2011: 3:10 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The corporate tax rate is 35%. But an examination of 280 of the nation's largest corporations suggests that many aren't paying anything close to that.

The real tax rate paid by a slew of major corporations averages closer to 18.5%, according to a study released Thursday by two liberal tax research groups.

The report issued by Citizens for Tax Justice and the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy paints the corporate tax code as wildly inefficient, filled with loopholes and subject to the influence of lobbyists who carve out special provisions for the companies they represent.

The study looked at 280 companies in the Fortune 500 that were profitable for all three years between 2008 and 2010.

The results: 111 companies paid effective tax rates of less than 17.5% over the three-year period; 98 paid a rate between 17.5% and 30%; and 71 paid more than 30%.

The average rate? 18.5%.

Some companies paid zero. And 30 actually owed less than nothing in income taxes over the three years.

Link: http://money.cnn.com/2011/11/03/news/economy/corporate_taxes/index.htm
_____________________________________________

OK. Here's more info debunking the popular idea that corporations are taxed first and then the shareholders are taxed again. (Holy Double Taxation, Batman!)
_____________________________________________

Companies that pay no federal income tax on the rise

By Marisa Taylor
An increasing number of U.S. companies don’t pay a dime in income taxes to the federal government because of a special structure that passes profits along to investors who then pay the taxes, according to a story in Tuesday’s Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203733504577026361246836488.html?m od=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories).

These companies are called pass-throughs, and rather than taking advantage of tax loopholes by hiring a brigade of accounts, they instead are structured to shuttle company profits along to investors, who subsequently pay taxes on their individual tax returns, according to the WSJ.

The story said pass-throughs, which have been around for decades, are legal and have been encouraged by Congress and state governments, but have been broadened recently to spur entrepreneurship.

The Wall Street Journal reported that 69 percent of U.S. corporations were organized as nontaxable businesses in 2008, up from 24 percent in 1986, and that the percentage is actually higher when including partnerships and sole proprietors. Large companies are often structured as pass-throughs, with an estimated 60 percent of U.S. businesses with profits of $1 million comprising this category, the largest such percentage in any developed country.

The U.S. corporate tax rate is 35 percent, but pass-throughs are a major reason why federal corporate tax collections made up only 1.3 percent of U.S. GDP in 2010, down from 2.7 percent in 2006, according to the story.

Link: http://bottomline.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/01/10/10094176-companies-that-pay-no-federal-income-tax-on-the-rise

____________________________________

And finally, let's look at all corporations. Surely Badcompany, this is at least the one place that will substantiate your claim that I'm full of it when I say corporations don't pay squat when it comes to U.S. corporate income taxes.
________________________________

Most firms pay no income taxes - Congress


Study finds that the majority of domestic and foreign corporations in the United States avoid paying federal income taxes.

By David Goldman (david.goldman@turner.com), CNNMoney.com staff writer

Last Updated: August 12, 2008: 4:38 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Nearly two-thirds of U.S. companies and 68% of foreign corporations do not pay federal income taxes, according to a congressional report released Tuesday.

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) examined samples of corporate tax returns filed between 1998 and 2005. In that time period, an annual average of 1.3 million U.S. companies and 39,000 foreign companies doing business in the United States paid no income taxes - despite having a combined $2.5 trillion in revenue.

The study showed that 28% of foreign companies and 25% of U.S. corporations with more than $250 million in assets or $50 million in sales paid no federal income taxes in 2005. Those companies totaled a combined $372 billion in sales for the largest foreign companies and $1.1 trillion in revenue for the biggest U.S. companies.

Link: http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/12/news/economy/corporate_taxes/

[badcompany]

Most firms pay no income taxes - Congress


Study finds that the majority of domestic and foreign corporations in the United States avoid paying federal income taxes.

By David Goldman (david.goldman@turner.com), CNNMoney.com staff writer

Last Updated: August 12, 2008: 4:38 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Nearly two-thirds of U.S. companies and 68% of foreign corporations do not pay federal income taxes, according to a congressional report released Tuesday.

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) examined samples of corporate tax returns filed between 1998 and 2005. In that time period, an annual average of 1.3 million U.S. companies and 39,000 foreign companies doing business in the United States paid no income taxes - despite having a combined $2.5 trillion in revenue.

The study showed that 28% of foreign companies and 25% of U.S. corporations with more than $250 million in assets or $50 million in sales paid no federal income taxes in 2005. Those companies totaled a combined $372 billion in sales for the largest foreign companies and $1.1 trillion in revenue for the biggest U.S. companies.

Link: http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/12/news/economy/corporate_taxes/

While I don't have time to parse all of this data, one thing that jumps out at me is that it doesn't state the percentage of those companies that were profitable. It just gives the total revenue of the companies.

Using that technique you could lump Exxon in with two unprofitable companies and make the claim that 2/3 of the companies didn't pay taxes even though they had revenue of over a 100 billion.

There's a reason books are written about how to lie with statistics, and why Liberals and Socialists rely so heavily on them (No offense Hcap;) ).

That said, it was a nice effort to sidestep the question. I read annual and quarterly reports almost everyday, and, the only companies I see that don't pay taxes are those that don't show a profit.

[NJ Stinks]

That said, it was a nice effort to sidestep the question.

BC, they're playing your song:


That's why they call me Bad company
And I can't deny
Bad company
Till the day I die

;)

[johnhannibalsmith]

I gotta say... it makes me a bit nervous knowing that people in charge of examining tax returns and auditing for the IRS have such a sense of "what is justice". Please tell me you were able to set your ideals aside and simply follow the law as it is written and contain your ire for the law that you are bound to rather than those you scrutinized.

[NJ Stinks]

I gotta say... it makes me a bit nervous knowing that people in charge of examining tax returns and auditing for the IRS have such a sense of "what is justice". Please tell me you were able to set your ideals aside and simply follow the law as it is written and contain your ire for the law that you are bound to rather than those you scrutinized.

John, my first instinct is tell you to be nervous. :rolleyes:

But instead I'll just say I found out what somebody's tax liablility was and if that was what the person reported, that's that.

And. for the record, I had no "ire" when I was working. What makes me mad four years removed from the job is listening to Republicans scream endlessly about cutting taxes even more as the country buries itself deeper in debt.

All the while claiming to be the most patriotic Americans, of course. :rolleyes:

[johnhannibalsmith]

John, my first instinct is tell you to be nervous. :rolleyes:

...

You know, sorry.

That pile of shit I typed was probably uncalled for. I have a low opinion of the taxjerks I've dealt with. One guy tells me I should have used some common sense and then couldn't find a shred of it himself when trying to comprehend that about 95% of the money paid to me went straight to feed, gallop boys, tack, etc, etc. - you know, the most legitimate business expenses you'd probably ever run across. I screwed up by not being more diligent, no doubt, but the use "common sense" line when a guy is trying to support his theory that I made a pile of money when I was living on a cot in someone's trailer and living off of pop-tarts sort of scarred me for life. :blush: Sorry.

[bigmack]

And. for the record, I had no "ire" when I was working. What makes me mad four years removed from the job is listening to Republicans scream endlessly about cutting taxes even more as the country buries itself deeper in debt.

All the while claiming to be the most patriotic Americans, of course.
Well if you feel that people making an argument against higher taxes makes people less patriotic you must feel those that spend it faster than it comes in are absolute traitors.

You have heard it's a spending problem NOT a revenue problem right? Do you ever stop to think about that side of the fence?

Never? You mean never, ever? You NEVER think about that?

That is odd.

That is all.

[NJ Stinks]

Sorry.

Forget about it, John. I worked for a tax agency for a long time. I met plenty of ass-----s along the way who lacked common sense. Colleagues who saw tax fraud everywhere they went. Others who refused to see gray areas (like you not having receipts for bills even though you obviously had the expenses).

Anyway, the biggest reason I never said where I worked for a long time was because anybody, who had tax problems in the past, was not going to be happy having me around here too. Honestly, I don't blame anyone for feeling that way. It's a natural way to feel.

[NJ Stinks]

Well if you feel that people making an argument against higher taxes makes people less patriotic you must feel those that spend it faster than it comes in are absolute traitors.

You have heard it's a spending problem NOT a revenue problem right? Do you ever stop to think about that side of the fence?



You guys think about the spending side of the fence ad nauseum. Somebody around here needs to think about the revenue side of the fence and frankly, who's more qualified than yours truly? :p

Anyway, I agree that spending is a problem too.

There. I said it. Now can we be buddies again? :( ;)

[bigmack]

Anyway, I agree that spending is a problem too.

There. I said it. Now can we be buddies again? :( ;)
Make no mistake, spending on both sides of the aisle. Repugs & Dims.

The complete and total refusal by BO & Co., to do ANYTHING about the debt, let alone racking up ANOTHER 5 TRILLION! - Is something that he will have to live with for a long time.

It really is bordering on impeachable. Just remarkable how someone could be so feckless.

-----------

In the 'buddies' dept. I'm not currently taking applications for married dudes.

Number 1 reason? Booooorrrring. (Not that there's anything wrong with that) :cool:

[badcompany]

You guys think about the spending side of the fence ad nauseum. Somebody around here needs to think about the revenue side of the fence and frankly, who's more qualified than yours truly? :p

Anyway, I agree that spending is a problem too.

There. I said it. Now can we be buddies again? :( ;)

I did tax prep for HR Block and found it to be brutal. Rule after rule, exceptions to each one, and exceptions to the exceptions. Who can be claimed as a dependent was particularly vexing.

With regard to revenue. The difference is that taxpayers earn it; whereas governments take it.

So, when a government talks of maximizing revenue it kinda comes across like Tony Soprano trying to shake down a business for as much as possible.

[chickenhead]

I am not a financial advisor of course, so this isn't advice, it's a friendly rant -

I know there are a lot of retirees around here, and I know retirees often have a large holding in bond funds and long bonds, so I'll bang the drum again...

SELL YOUR LONG DURATION BOND FUNDS IMMEDIATELY. ALL OF THEM. Tell your grandparents, tell your parents, tell your friends. And do it yourself.

You've had a very nice ride, your bond fund has done well. It won't do well going forward, not for a very long time, not until it has lost a large portion of its value, and along with it your money.

The bond fund manager will tell you this himself, if you catch him on an honest day.

If you are older and retired and rely on bond funds -- if you must have them find the absolute shortest duration you can, like money market. Better to eat your principle yourself.

Do it.

Stocks will do whatever, but long bonds are a mathematical certainty right now and for many years.

[NJ Stinks]

With regard to revenue. The difference is that taxpayers earn it; whereas governments take it.

So, when a government talks of maximizing revenue it kinda comes across like Tony Soprano trying to shake down a business for as much as possible.

:D

Good analogy, BC. :ThmbUp:

I may disagree with your point of view but that does not mean I don't understand why you have that point of view.

(Sorry for interruption, Chickenhead. Appreciate your concern.)

[lamboguy]

I am not a financial advisor of course, so this isn't advice, it's a friendly rant -

I know there are a lot of retirees around here, and I know retirees often have a large holding in bond funds and long bonds, so I'll bang the drum again...

SELL YOUR LONG DURATION BOND FUNDS IMMEDIATELY. ALL OF THEM. Tell your grandparents, tell your parents, tell your friends. And do it yourself.

You've had a very nice ride, your bond fund has done well. It won't do well going forward, not for a very long time, not until it has lost a large portion of its value, and along with it your money.

The bond fund manager will tell you this himself, if you catch him on an honest day.

If you are older and retired and rely on bond funds -- if you must have them find the absolute shortest duration you can, like money market. Better to eat your principle yourself.

Do it.

Stocks will do whatever, but long bonds are a mathematical certainty right now and for many years.
just 2 weeks ago there was a law passed allowing the treasury to sell bonds with negative interest rates. i don't think to many individuals would participate in that type of a program. however big company's that have lots of cash like APPLE or EXXON might pay the government to lend them money. this is not the first time negative interest rates have been around, during the world wars and after them for a couple of decades, SWISS BANKS charged when you deposited money in them.

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't see this market turning around and dying here...why would it?

As long as the fed continues to keep interest rates near zero and the economy continues to show signs of improvement, why would folks start bailing on the market?

I don't think this market turns around and dies based on technicals like a double top...there has to be a fundamental event to make it turn around and die...

Like something going very wrong in Europe...or some other major crisis (war with Iran?...unexpected economic turmoil in the US?)

If everything stays as is, this market will continue to float up IMO...Almost a month later, and right on target... :ThmbUp:

[lamboguy]

Almost a month later, and right on target... :ThmbUp:
that along with the gold market doing nothing will get you a president that will win a second term.

[JustRalph]

All the while claiming to be the most patriotic Americans, of course. :rolleyes:

yeah, but we are in good company

http://undergod.procon.org/files/ug%20images/founding_fathers.jpg

[Ocala Mike]

that along with the gold market doing nothing will get you a president that will win a second term.

Bad news from Afghanistan and at the gas pumps, though. All the R's need is a candidate they can all get behind; sadly (for them), this may not happen.

Getting back to the subject of this thread, though, the double top is now in place, so we shall see where we go. Nasdaq and S&P may be better barometers at this time; broke out already.


Ocala Mike