Charles54
02-19-2012, 05:02 PM
These driver numbers from the current Woodbine meet look quite impressive:
Driver Starts W% ROI%
Davis, Billy 253 16% 26%
Mcnair, Douglas 640 11% 6%
Macdonald, A 394 8% 3%
Mayotte, Roger 230 7% -2%
Seems like quite a few races, doesn't it? And just a hundred dollars on each of Billy Davis's drives would have returned a profit of $6,578. Load up on these guys big time and you could have made some fairly serious money.
The only problem with this plan is that betting on races after they have been run is not permitted... and I certainly could not have predicted that these particular drivers would have been profitable at Woodbine before the meet began. Here are the same numbers for the same drivers at the Mohawk meet that led directly into the Woodbine meet.
Driver Starts W% ROI%
Davis, Billy 120 7% -39%
Mcnair, Douglas 311 8% -28%
Macdonald, A 120 7% -40%
Mayotte, Roger 189 5% -31%
Ouch.
I believe McNair is regarded as a solid young driver. But, I thought Macdonald was just a decent B-circuit driver. And, although Mayotte is a major leaguer, he is a journeyman who is usually very near the bottom of the WEG standings.
And isn't Billy Davis' huge ROI merely the product of a couple of longshot winners? Davis' home track is Flamboro, where he has had over thirteen hundred races in the same 365 days, producing a nasty loss of 31 cents on the dollar. A hundred dollars on each of those drives would have cost you over $40,000.
After-the-fact statistics can be fun to look at, but you need to be discerning. Betting your grocery money based on this type of thing is very dangerous. All the statistical evidence I have seen suggests it is better to look for solid opportunities on of consistent, proven drivers like Jamieson and Waples.
How large a sample do you think is required to draw valid conclusion on something like driving ability?
Driver Starts W% ROI%
Davis, Billy 253 16% 26%
Mcnair, Douglas 640 11% 6%
Macdonald, A 394 8% 3%
Mayotte, Roger 230 7% -2%
Seems like quite a few races, doesn't it? And just a hundred dollars on each of Billy Davis's drives would have returned a profit of $6,578. Load up on these guys big time and you could have made some fairly serious money.
The only problem with this plan is that betting on races after they have been run is not permitted... and I certainly could not have predicted that these particular drivers would have been profitable at Woodbine before the meet began. Here are the same numbers for the same drivers at the Mohawk meet that led directly into the Woodbine meet.
Driver Starts W% ROI%
Davis, Billy 120 7% -39%
Mcnair, Douglas 311 8% -28%
Macdonald, A 120 7% -40%
Mayotte, Roger 189 5% -31%
Ouch.
I believe McNair is regarded as a solid young driver. But, I thought Macdonald was just a decent B-circuit driver. And, although Mayotte is a major leaguer, he is a journeyman who is usually very near the bottom of the WEG standings.
And isn't Billy Davis' huge ROI merely the product of a couple of longshot winners? Davis' home track is Flamboro, where he has had over thirteen hundred races in the same 365 days, producing a nasty loss of 31 cents on the dollar. A hundred dollars on each of those drives would have cost you over $40,000.
After-the-fact statistics can be fun to look at, but you need to be discerning. Betting your grocery money based on this type of thing is very dangerous. All the statistical evidence I have seen suggests it is better to look for solid opportunities on of consistent, proven drivers like Jamieson and Waples.
How large a sample do you think is required to draw valid conclusion on something like driving ability?