Southwest Stakes--Oaklawn

[Shelby]

Monday, February 20.

They had so many entries that they split the race into two races. Baffert and Lukas both have two horses entered --one in each race.

I'm really looking forward to this!


PP's aren't final yet, so the horses aren't in order, but here's the two groups:

Race 8
---------

Red Jack
Unbridled's Note
Jake Mo
Majestic Stride
Longview Drive
Junebugred
No Spin
Reckless Jerry
Ring It Up
Laurie's Rocket
Castaway

Race 9
---------

Z Rockstar
Adirondack King
Scatman
Apprehender
Chalybeate Springs
Pee H Dee
Cyber Secret
King Coral
Secret Circle
Big Wednesday

[Beachbabe]

Shelby,
Don't know if you're a member at Brisnet, but they have the pp's for Oaklawn for monday up right now. It's free to join but their pp's cost up to $3.00 unless you are a Twinspires member & bet the track that you download the pp's from; then they're free.

[redshift1]

Up now, for free, look under Bob Baffert.

http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm

[Shelby]

Thanks, guys. :ThmbUp:

[Shelby]

Well, my first instinct is to say that Junebugred will win the first leg....but, I gotta do some serious studying. IMO, these are a tough couple of races to handicap.

[Dahoss9698]

I'm leaning towards a crazy longshot in the first leg. While I think Reckless Jerry is the horse to beat off his trip last time, I feel like No Spin has a chance to improve taking the blinkers off. Two back he made a premature, wide move and was unable to sustain his run. Last time, with blinkers he was up on the lead. I think he'll be more settled tomorrow and in a field with a fair amount of early speed, he might fall into a good trip.

Maybe he's just a grass/synth horse, so I guess tomorrow will kind of dictate that.

[Blenheim]

Division 1
~
Should be a good one.

Deadly set of works by the :5: and the :11:, particularly the :5:, his last work on the surface - nice job by Hollendorfer here. It'll be interesting to see if the SoCal invaders have sufficient class to get this group, I think not. :ThmbDown:

The :6: horse should be tough to beat in this one but he lacks early speed and that might be problematic. I like the :3:. Humble beginnins, got spanked in the BCJ and the DedJckpt, took a break, maybe got some development. Gave em' a good fight three wide from the eight spot last out on a surface he appears to like. Has the early speed, has the stamina and endurance and likes a good fight; gets a 5fl and 7fl work and a favorable post. No excuses.

:3: / :6:
:5: :8: :10:

Nothin' like the Derby Trail. Lookin' forward to the Southwest!

[Blenheim]

Division 2
~
Should be a good one but not a good as the first!

Can't see how they beat the :9: horse in this one. Baffert is workin' for some big time owners in these two - Magnier and Tabor in the first leg and Watson and Pegram in the second - tough combo and Baffert has both of em' ready . . . :11: and the :9:. Don't know that I'd be surprised if Baffert wins both of em' as he is settin' up pretty sweet for it. Only problem I have with the :9: is he might be overworked, reminds me of the :2: horse in the Robert B Lewis.

Nevernonetheless, I figure they gotta beat the Baffert horse in this one.

:9: :3: :2:

Best of racin' luck.

Nothin' like the Derby Trail.

[rastajenk]

First division: Tri key the likely fave :5: over the :2: :3: :4: and :6: .

Second division: Can't get past the :9: . :7: looks like best of the rest, but an inner post could beat him for the place. Tri key :9: over :2: :3: :4: and :7: .

:)

[peeptoad]

Southwest DD:
R8: 5,6,8,9
R9: 9

good luck

[Golf and Horses]

Division 1
~
I like the :3:. gets a 5fl and 7fl work and a favorable post. No excuses.

:3: / :6:
:5: :8: :10:

Nothin' like the Derby Trail. Lookin' forward to the Southwest!
Why no works since Feb 5th? I was leaning towards this one until I saw that. I think I'll just watch both divisions. Maybe Baffert takes both legs. Good luck everyone.

[PhantomOnTour]

Kind of like :2: Adirondack King

Nice return at Tam and looks like he'll handle the stretchout to a mile. Out of a GrStks winning mare in Jostle...new horse since lasix added.

[Ocala Mike]

Exacta Box, :3: :4: :5: :7: in the 1st division.

:6: will probably beat me.


Ocala Mike

[Tom]

1st division

:8:
:11:
:5:

[TexasDolly]

1st leg 2-11
2nd leg 9--2,4
good luck all
TD

[Beachbabe]

I'll go with the :8: in the first leg & the :1: in the second

[Shelby]

Serious bridgejumping on the :5: Longview Drive --well, there was. The show pool was well over 120,000 on the five....now it's like 75,000 ...weird



I have a 10 cent super...

:6:
:2::4::5::8::9:


I rolled the :6: in all positions.....I know, lot of money, but I like playing Oaklawn.

Good luck, everyone!

[toussaud]

meh

[Shelby]

Well, so much for that lol.


Baffert really had that horse ready to go!


Still wondering about the bridge jumping on the :5:....

[Dahoss9698]

There was no bridge jumping on the 5.

Very heady ride by Bejarano. Everyone else....not so much.

[precocity]

LOOKS LIKE A BAFFERT DOUBLE :cool:

[Shelby]

There was no bridge jumping on the 5.

Very heady ride by Bejarano. Everyone else....not so much.

There was early on.

From Twitter:


Bridge Jumper Alert @bridgejumper (https://twitter.com/#%21/bridgejumper)

Reply (https://twitter.com/#)
Favorite (https://twitter.com/#)
· Open (https://twitter.com/#%21/bridgejumper/status/171724077743095808)
via @BombsawayBob (https://twitter.com/#%21/BombsawayBob): 8th @OaklawnRacing (https://twitter.com/#%21/OaklawnRacing) -#5 has $58K of $83K in show dough, down from +$80K minutes ago...




-----------------




Bob Grant @BombsawayBob (https://twitter.com/#%21/BombsawayBob)


Reply (https://twitter.com/#)
Retweet (https://twitter.com/#)
Favorite (https://twitter.com/#)
· Open (https://twitter.com/#%21/BombsawayBob/status/171724778372218880)
Show pool on #5 in 8th@Oaklawn now down to $21k of $45k. why bother posting pool totals if you allow this manipulation?

[Dahoss9698]

When the pools closed there was no bridge jumping.

[Shelby]

When the pools closed there was no bridge jumping.

Ok, correct.

I don't know how to be clearer. Should I have called it a different term?


Bridge jumping occurred early in the pool--very large amounts of money were put in and then taken out of the show pool.

[PhantomOnTour]

Stewy needs to take the rail and wait on this :2: & hope the Baffert horse doesn't run away from them. I expect a nice kick from this colt in the lane.
Elliott - Servis - Oaklawn Stakes races - hmmm....

EX:
:2: :7:
:1: :2: :7: :8: :9:

WIN:
:2:

[toussaud]

i don't know what ot think. I really don't. I don't think much of the field behind him but that was a pretty gutty win though he looked pretty tired

[horses4courses]

I read where Baffert now has 9 winners from 12 starters at Oaklawn.

:eek:

[Robert Goren]

If somebody canceled the show bet on the :5: to get odds, they were stupid. My guess is that they saw something didn't like in the warm ups. The horse ran like something was wrong with him.

[Dahoss9698]

If somebody canceled the show bet on the :5: to get odds, they were stupid. My guess is that they saw something didn't like in the warm ups. The horse ran like something was wrong with him.

You should watch the replay again. He's a horse who likes to be close to the pace. He broke a step slow, was pinched around the first turn, in tight into the backstretch and then made a premature wide move, while being much farther back than he normally is.

Next time with another jock (hopefully) and better odds I think he can turn the tables on this field. The winner will never get an easier trip than he got today and feels like a major bet against next time.

[sandpit]

Nobody has mentioned it, but that Scatman horse ran very well I thought. Looked like he rebroke a couple of times on his own and really gave a great effort all the way around.

Maybe the field wasn't much, but he was the only one that gave the 3-5 any kind of resistance.

[The WindfallAngler]

You should watch the replay again. He's a horse who likes to be close to the pace. He broke a step slow, was pinched around the first turn, in tight into the backstretch and then made a premature wide move, while being much farther back than he normally is.

Next time with another jock (hopefully) and better odds I think he can turn the tables on this field. The winner will never get an easier trip than he got today and feels like a major bet against next time.

The :5: 's trip was horrid, as you point out, Castaway's score notwithstanding.

Ideally, Longview Drive would have imitated Secret Circle's quick win, in the Ninth, transplanting his *California form,* as well. For that would've flattered, even more sincerely the colt, Out Of Bounds. ...Who is arguably best of these, and is on course for all three crowns.

[nijinski]

Nice to see Street Sense represented here. Hopefully we'll be nearing more from his crop.
Toby Keith owns the third place finisher to Castaway , Restless Jerry .

[PhantomOnTour]

Secret Circle validated the fig from the Sham by running the best Derby prep so far imo.
It really depends on how you rate Algorithms' Holy Bull score. Beyer adjusted his initial fig from a 98 to a 105, and it's the ole GP timing thing, so who knows.

[redshift1]

Any Beyers yet on the SW stakes?

[theguarantee]

Secret Circle validated the fig from the Sham by running the best Derby prep so far imo.
It really depends on how you rate Algorithms' Holy Bull score. Beyer adjusted his initial fig from a 98 to a 105, and it's the ole GP timing thing, so who knows.

Throw El Padrino in that mix imo, but for the record, Barrert on ATR today made a very pessimistic case for SC at anything over a mile...he basically said the horse was a sprinter, best at about 7F's....not sure how much trust you want to put into trainer speak, but when it is on the negative end I'd take it pretty seriously...

[menifee]

Throw El Padrino in that mix imo, but for the record, Barrert on ATR today made a very pessimistic case for SC at anything over a mile...he basically said the horse was a sprinter, best at about 7F's....not sure how much trust you want to put into trainer speak, but when it is on the negative end I'd take it pretty seriously...

If anybody moves on to the Kentucky Derby from these two races, it will be Scatman and even that is doubtful. Secret Circle wants no part of a mile and a quarter. I don't think any of these horses will make it to the KD.

[redshift1]

Secret Circle earned a Beyer Figure of 102, Castaway 92.

[Cardus]

You should watch the replay again. He's a horse who likes to be close to the pace. He broke a step slow, was pinched around the first turn, in tight into the backstretch and then made a premature wide move, while being much farther back than he normally is.

Next time with another jock (hopefully) and better odds I think he can turn the tables on this field. The winner will never get an easier trip than he got today and feels like a major bet against next time.

I am certainly willing to give Longview Drive another chance.

[Shelby]

Serious bridgejumping on the :5: Longview Drive --well, there was. The show pool was well over 120,000 on the five....now it's like 75,000 ...weird



I have a 10 cent super...

:6:
:2::4::5::8::9:


I rolled the :6: in all positions.....I know, lot of money, but I like playing Oaklawn.

Good luck, everyone!

An investigation is taking place:

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/whose-rules-apply-cancelled-bet-leads-to-investigation-simulcast-cutoff-between-santa-anita-oaklawn-park/

[cj]

This canceling of bets needs to be stopped. If you aren't sure of a bet, don't bet.

[Shelby]

This canceling of bets needs to be stopped. If you aren't sure of a bet, don't bet.

No kidding.

I can't fathom making an $80,000 bet and not being dang sure about it :faint:

[Rise Over Run]

Investigation on show bet cancellation finds no wrongdoing:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/67801/no-wrongdoing-found-in-canceled-oaklawn-wager?source=rss

[tbwinner]

Investigation on show bet cancellation finds no wrongdoing:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/67801/no-wrongdoing-found-in-canceled-oaklawn-wager?source=rss

Of course there was no wrongdoing...is there ever in these "investigations"? Other than the "Fix Six" Breeders cup scandal.

[cj]

Of course there was no wrongdoing...is there ever in these "investigations"? Other than the "Fix Six" Breeders cup scandal.

“The atypical nature of this particular transaction justified the scrutiny it received,” said Bobby Geiger, Oaklawn’s director of gaming and wagering. “Fans participating in Oaklawn’s pari-mutuel pools should take comfort knowing the various regulatory and oversight authorities are looking out for their best interests. Maintaining mutuel pool integrity is paramount, the process worked."

I just threw up my mouth a little bit.