Statistics

[Kirbyjrt]

Is there a place to get statistics on a racetrack that shows the percentages of the top 2 betting favorites finishing in the money, or is this something a person has to do manually?

I know it's readily available for the favorite.

Thank you in advance.

[Capper Al]

Robert Rowe talks about these type of stats in his book How to Win at Horseracing:


http://www.amazon.com/How-Win-Horseracing-Robert-Rowe/dp/1580420702/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1329584144&sr=1-2

[Kirbyjrt]

I looked at Aqueduct - Gulfstream - Tampa from yesterday.

24 races top 2 betting favs finished in the money 13 times.

Super small sample I know, but... 54%

[Capper Al]

I looked at Aqueduct - Gulfstream - Tampa from yesterday.

24 races top 2 betting favs finished in the money 13 times.

Super small sample I know, but... 54%

Not bad for a small sample. Top favorites usually comes in first or second about 50% on their own.

[windoor]

Is there a place to get statistics on a racetrack that shows the percentages of the top 2 betting favorites finishing in the money, or is this something a person has to do manually?

I know it's readily available for the favorite.

Thank you in advance.

Don't know if this helps, but I once did a study for the the lowest four odd horses and came up with near 80% for most major tracks.

It went with a theory of mine that these tracks will on average produce two long shots per day. I then went off to find the type of races that produced the long shots. I am always interested in the type of race the public consistently has trouble with.

It should come as no surprise that maiden races produced most of them, but I did fine a little nugget in there for some other "types" of races that I still play today.

Regards,

Windoor

[tokyo2002]

I created a quick filter of 5700 Dirt Sprints in HSH from the last 6 months or so and the first public choice won 37% and second public choice won 22.1%.

[windoor]

Odds rank for all tracks,1st quarter of 2011

About 9K races.






Rank Plays Pct
1 9508 .3666
2 9134 .2148
3 9150 .1514
4 9065 .9049


About 58% for top two.


Windoor

[Kirbyjrt]

thank you guys for the postings.

kirby

[windoor]

As usual, I didn't grasp the meaning of the question.

In the "money" for top two. I gave the win percent of top 4.

I'll see if I can find a stat for that.

Do you have a particular track in mind?

Regards,

Windoor.

[windoor]

All Tracks 3rd quarter 2011
About 15K races

Odds Rank #1


Wins 5584 8737 10533

Win Place Show
Plays 15023 15023 15023
PCT .3717 .5816 .7011

ROI 0.8580 0.8964 0.8958
Avg Mut 4.62 3.08 2.56


Odds Rank #2

I can't seem to get my software to do this, but you might be able to get an idea by the win percent of number 2 Ranked from above.

Some tracks go as high at 40% for the favorite in the third quarter.

Regards,

Windoor

[Dave Schwartz]

Not bad for a small sample. Top favorites usually comes in first or second about 50% on their own.

As I recall, more like 58% in today's world.

[Kirbyjrt]

I like to play the all in a (7-10) horse field with the All/top2/top2. The top2 being the two betting favorites. Sometimes I'll split the top 2 with the all. Has to be a decent amount of longshots in the race or I just pass.

I'm a terrible handicapper, and I know it. This method has worked fairly well for me recently. There are some days when they go 1-2 on me, but that's the chance I take.

This is why I was wondering how many times the top 2 betting favorites finish in the money.

[fmhealth]

Here are the stats for the TUP meet from 10/1/11 till 2/9/12.

Favorites finishing first--- 37.3%

Favorites finishing second---20.5%

Favorites finishing third---13.3%

Favorites finishing fourth---9.1%

Here's another stat you might find actionable. The BEST pp, in terms of winning % is the 1 post in routes. They win at slightly more than 22% (34/154).

[Kirbyjrt]

I'm going to play with today's races. I still want to put the top 2 betting favorites in the 2-3 spots. Instead of choosing ALL blindly in the top spot, I'll use the "profit line" ratings to eliminate horses with a "profit line" of 50. I will not just throw these horses out either, but, if after looking at the horse and I see he/she has 1 win in 30 tries, then that horse is out. Saves me a few bucks throughout the day.

I find "profit line" and maidens is somewhat useless. For instance, I see a rating of 50 for a horse who is 0 for 1. Now 0 for 10 is a different story.

Anway it's something to play with.

[Capper Al]

I'm going to play with today's races. I still want to put the top 2 betting favorites in the 2-3 spots. Instead of choosing ALL blindly in the top spot, I'll use the "profit line" ratings to eliminate horses with a "profit line" of 50. I will not just throw these horses out either, but, if after looking at the horse and I see he/she has 1 win in 30 tries, then that horse is out. Saves me a few bucks throughout the day.

I find "profit line" and maidens is somewhat useless. For instance, I see a rating of 50 for a horse who is 0 for 1. Now 0 for 10 is a different story.

Anway it's something to play with.

Try a key exacta box (with the two favorites) if you happen to find your top pick is going off at 5/1 or higher.

[Kirbyjrt]

I do throw those in.

[Robert Fischer]

2 betting favorites in the 2-3 spots.

applaud your work Kirby.

I think you'll find that there will be some trial and some error for a while.

What you are asking is how often the 2bettingFavs LOSE AND FINISH exactly2-3.

first simplify your wager structure to see the basics.
---> I can break your wager down into 2 separate wagers.

Win dutch on a few contenders who are not FAV1,FAV2 = This is the simple win wager part. You should be proficient with this part on paper and be able to estimate your chances either with ballpark solid guesses, or %probability estimates depending on your style of thinking.
betting FAV1 AND FAV2 to SHOW. This is the 2nd part of your wager. This wager does give you the added winning tickets from the Win(1stplace) finish position that your trifecta will not (you need them 2nd/3rd). However it is extremely close. This wager can also be done on paper, or live betting as you will not lose very quickly @ $2 a pop. You can then still try to hit 2nd/3rd positions and keep records for those positions even though you still technically get paid for 1st.
Of course you want the fat trifecta payouts! These are just simplified wagers based on your wager which has a medium level of complexity. Hopefully this thinking gives you an idea or two.




good luck

[Kirbyjrt]

Thanks all. I don't want to be stubborn and just blindly throw the top 2 betting favs in 2-3 for a decent trifecta payout.

I have to cover the top spot in some manner. Dutch, exacta, whatever... I was leaning toward the exacta box to cover the cost of the trifecta bet if they end up finishing 1-2.

Yesterday I was sure of a horse finishing first or second, of course, came in third. Saved myself $2 bucks and cost myself $200.00. It was the 6th at Parx.

[Kirbyjrt]

Playing around today, lots of races to pass. Too close to call on the 2nd favorite.

[Robert Fischer]

Playing around today, lots of races to pass. Too close to call on the 2nd favorite.

supposedly 80% of new ideas come on 20% of the days...

missed some opportunities today time for a hour break from racing