Looking for Long Shots

[Myhorse1_X]

I have been looking at horses that have paid in excess of $40.00
to see if they have anything in common.
The first thing must be is that the public sees something that they don't like to allow the odds on that horse to remain high.

One of the first things was 1) Bad last race
2)In the money in 2nd back race.
3) A shipper (especially from a lesser track)
4) off more than 30 days.
5) a 4 or 5 fl work within 16 days
6) and final odds double what the morning line odds were.

There is not one singular condition that is common among all of these horses, but the above items might give anyone a lead on a possible long shot horse.

Any comments from anyone??

Has anyone ever queried their data base for horses that paid over say, $40.00??

MyHorse1

[kingfin66]

I don't have a database, but what you have come up with makes sense. Other things that would make a longshot would be subpar speed ratings, questionable class, low % connections, questionable distance/surface, etc.

[Buddha]

Yes, I think "hidden" things in the PP are what make most horses pay over $40. You may have a horse that was boxed and steadied last time out, not mention it in the PP, show the horse lose a little ground and try to make it back up. That happened with a horse at Mountaineer, and while it didn't pay $40, it did pay $21 or so next time out when it should have been 4-1 or less.

Some things like that they you get to see yourself first hand can lead to some good prices.

Some what are considered improving horses without great speed figs are another thing. Last years Derby, War Emblem as an improving horse. He might not have figured to win, but was improving. Funny Cide likewise this year was an improving horse who won the Derby. In the Preakness, Midway Road had improved all of his races. No huge jumps to warrant a bounce, and while didn't figure to win the Preakness, in my opinion, figured to get a piece of the pie. Ran second to FC, and payed $10 or something close just to place.

I don't think anything can help you find more potential price winners than watching the races yourself. You can pick up on little things that are not easily seen in the PP's.

Another example from Mountaineer. An allowance horse who was superior to all horses in the race. His most recent race before that night, the jock had lost his irons soon after the start of the race. Was racing on the lead, and backed up a little down the stretch. Next time out, I was expecting to see even money or so, as the horse was that much better than the rest, and payed somewhere around $7-$7.80. A great price if you consider what had happened the previous race.

[Fastracehorse]

A mild over-statement but the above is essentialy true.

Trip trouble is a great way to find bombs - bad starts, inside trips, speed duels, off tracks etc.........great place to look.

A lesser known jock on a live mount is always an odds raiser.

Rise in class is unpopular, as are big drops - but both can be deadly.

fffastt

[so.cal.fan]

An angle I have noticed for many years, doesn't come up too often but often pays well:
When a good trainer has a young horse, runs it on turf or a distance of ground, the horse appears to put in a weak or even bad race.....and then he runs it back again on grass or a distance a race, two or three down the line.
It's always interested me, because I know the trainer knows their own horse much better than I do, and I give them the benefit of the doubt, and often have cashed a good one.

Another longshot angle in the Winter/Spring months is following three year olds that finish well. Most folks are looking for early speed.......and rightfully so, but don't overlook a youngster that finishes fast......they usually win in the near future.

[Tom]

Did a quick querry about this:
I found 1374 horse that paid $40 of more since July.

Of these, 299 were on the lead when they won big (22%)
443, 32% were less than a length off at the first call.
751, 55% were within 2 at the first call.

Changes in blinkers, lasix, or a combo of the two? Only 14%.

[Pace Cap'n]

Another useful ingredient: The vulnerable favorite.

[trying2win]

Tom,

Very interesting stats! I once read a book called Pro Rated Longshots by Dan Geer, a long time ago. If I remember correctly, one of the rules of his method incorporated recent early speed of a horse.

Trying2win

[dav4463]

Speed and fade

A Back Beyer somewhere that is equal or better than the best Last Race Beyer, may have only done it only once, but could do it again.

A horse with a strong late kick, that tries turf for the first time.

Has one of the top five best speed figures in last two races and is somehow overlooked. Happens more than you think.

Lightly raced maiden vs. others who have run more races and show better numbers.

[dav4463]

One more.....

Horse is one of only three or less horses in a sprint who broke 4th or better in last race. Even if the jockey fell off, the horse at least showed the ability to break well ! If today's race shows more than half the field broke slowly last time out, you may have a play...may work in routes too, I haven't checked it as much in routes though.

[dav4463]

I love longshots, so have one more that I've used before.

It has to be a 12 horse or more field with a favorite who you think will be beat.

Throw out the top six morning line horses and handicap the remainder as if the top six were not in the race. Eliminate the worst of the worst and find two horses that are somewhat playable and then play the highest odds, or just play both...

[PaceAdvantage]

I like this last post of Dave's very much...I think in order to hit longshots, you have to think more about handicapping the RACE and less about handicapping the HORSE.

[dav4463]

You have to find the type of race that produces longshots. Not a 5 horse maiden affair in California with a Baffert favorite ! Try a $5,000 claiming race at Delta Downs with 12 horses in it and 9 of them are coming off a layoff ! Love those kind of races !

[ranchwest]

I find that the best way to hit extreme longshots is through eliminating other horses. Let's face it, if these horses had much to recommend, the price probably wouldn't be over $40, although I have caught a few that I couldn't believe paid so high. Sometimes it pays to get down to a few horses and then find one factor that you like.

I tend to seek out more winners in the $12 to $38 range because a lot of those horses actually have positive attributes of their own.

[Shacopate]

A few years ago, I studied the PP's of longshot winners, noticed some similarites and found a couple of angles.

1. Improving beaten finish in last three. (No matter how badly the horse was beaten).

2. Stretch gain with class drop from last race. (this can look very bad on paper.) Worked best in Mdn Clm and bottom level claiming races.

[Pace Cap'n]

Sometimes, not often, but sometimes, you can throw handicapping out the window and use some deductive reasoning.

Around the first of Nov., I'm at the OTB scoping out the DRF for a 12 furlong race on the turf at Belmont. Ten were going. It didn't take long to find the three "best" horses, and I decided to use them in a tri.

Still had a few minutes to post, and watching the tote got me to thinking about some of the others, the ones with the long odds. They looked something like this:

a) A Johnny V. horse at 6/1. Not bad odds for the leading jock. Not a lot to recommend the horse, but it wasn't a total slug.

b) Shannon Uske on a 40/1. 7-lb apprentice had been putting some price horses on the board of late, some of which looked no better than this one. Hmmmm.

c) A Ramsey horse, a steeplechaser no less. Wife says what's a
jumper doing in here? I couldn't say, but it was a safe bet the
Ramsey's had seen their horses run around a racetrack before
and weren't in there for the heck of it. 20/1.

I actually considered re-working my tri, but having taken a couple of hits on some flyers earlier, decided to stick with plan A. Bad choice.

They ran A, B, C. A search party is still out for the favorites.

Tri paid $11,500.

[Suff]

Originally posted by Pace Cap'n

Tri paid $11,500.

ouch

[Binder]

As a Sartin
Validator 2 user, As well as learning from 2 of the best
I find that most times its
. A Counter Energy horse
. Usually In a big field
. Shipping in from a lesser track
. 2 horses that are close favorites
like 6/5 and 8/5 and the rest of the field is
gapped
. Ranked 3rd mostly but sometimes 2nd on the V/DC
screen after hides

I look for these types at Pha park and do
catch a few

[Fastracehorse]

While certain races unfold in a manner that are favorable to longshots, I still believe that identifying the 'horse' is the key component to uearthing bombs.

Sometimes, when a bomb wins, people say it was the set-up - but under closer inspection, it was the horse.

fffastt

[brdman12]

another race that can bring some big scores. The horse with the highest beyer speed rating attempting grass for the first time. They are often ignored and worth a second look.