Track Bias Question for Pandy

[Charlie]

Pandy ... recently read your article on the DRF website about Track Biases. I then read where you rated 2/9 at the M1 a ( + closer night ). I am somewhat confused about this rating, because it doesn't seem to coincide with the Track Bias article. I found that on 2/9 there were 5 races won by closers and 5 races won by non-closers. Wouldn't these results point to a No Bias night? Pandy, thanks for any response.

[Sea Biscuit]

There are certain races where you have weak front runners and strong closers and vice versa the results of which invariably has nothing to do with a track bias.

How do you account for these races when calculating your track bias rating?








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[Charlie]

Sea Biscuit ... Certainly, on most nights there is no bias and I will rate the track as such. I usually determine the # of closers that won and then the # of non closers that won. Next, I look at the winners odds to see if they were heavy favorites and expected to win. If any were, I usually eliminate them when attempting to locate a bias. For example on the night I referred to in my above posting (2/9 at M1), there were 2 favorites that were expected to win and won. One was a closer and the other a non closer. That leaves me with 8 races to use and determine if a bias existed or not. 4 races were won by a closer and 4 by a non closer. Therfore; for me there was no bias.

[pandy]

3 horses won on the lead that night and one was a quarter move, so to me the track played the way it was most of the meet, it favored closers. I could have rated it as "no bias", it was one of those nights where it's close, but it was not an easy night to go wire to wire. Obviously this evaluation is totally subjective and anyone who doesn't want to use my bias report is free to make their own observations.

[Charlie]

Pandy ... thank you for your response and for always sharing your expertise with us handicappers. Once again, thanks.