Triple Crown Beyers 2011 vs 2012

[redshift1]

Just for comparsion:

Derby Prep races YTD

Number of races 7

Average Beyer 2011..... 88.14

Average Beyer 2012......92.28


.

[Doza]

Just for comparsion:

Derby Prep races YTD

Number of races 7

Average Beyer 2011..... 88.14

Average Beyer 2012......92.28


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The 3yo's out west are running bang up beyer's as well in allowance/maiden races. Baffert had at least 2 this last week running near a 100 beyer.

[Thomas Roulston]

So far there has been only one triple-digit Beyer from any horse - El Padrino's 100.

It was pretty much the same way at this time last year.

[redshift1]

There are 5, 100 + Beyers by 3YR olds to date, topped by Algorithms 105 which was changed from a 98 to 105.

To early to determine if 2012 will yield faster 3YR old Beyers than 2011, will know more in couple of weeks as 6-7 stakes races for 3YR olds are scheduled.

My guess, 2012 will yield more 100 + Beyers than 2011 if early trends continue.

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[Thomas Roulston]

I did forget about Overdriven's 100 Beyer - which is he only other one besides El Padrino's 100 that showed up among all the 3-year-old colts/geldings assigned any weight at all on the EFH when I printed the list from the DRF web site a few days ago.

[cj]

I did forget about Overdriven's 100 Beyer - which is he only other one besides El Padrino's 100 that showed up among all the 3-year-old colts/geldings assigned any weight at all on the EFH when I printed the list from the DRF web site a few days ago.
Two fillies have done it.

[Tread]

As if any of this matters. There will still be half a dozen complaints on here before summer about how much "this crop sucks", as there is every year on this board regardless of what is actually happening.

[PaceAdvantage]

As if any of this matters. There will still be half a dozen complaints on here before summer about how much "this crop sucks", as there is every year on this board regardless of what is actually happening.Very helpful. Thanks so much.

[JustRalph]

Is a 4 point difference any real difference at all? Especially at this stage of the game?

[redshift1]

14 preps so far:

2011.........2012

90.71........93.92

[Blenheim]

14 preps so far:

2011.........2012

90.71........93.92

Would be interesting and informative to know how many recent Kentucky Derby, Preakness or Belmont winners had the highest figure . . . the highest BSF, PF, Bris or Equibase. :cool:

[CincyHorseplayer]

Most of the preps have been fairly uncompetitive.When the playing field starts to get even and these horses are pushed to their limits we will see what they are capable of.They are always an interesting and potentially profitable group,fast or not.

[redshift1]

Would be interesting and informative to know how many recent Kentucky Derby, Preakness or Belmont winners had the highest figure . . . the highest BSF, PF, Bris or Equibase. :cool:

Trying to find this information is time consuming as the racing data publishers seem to be in the dark ages and unwilling to share this information except in small individually billable portions.

[Steve R]

Would be interesting and informative to know how many recent Kentucky Derby, Preakness or Belmont winners had the highest figure . . . the highest BSF, PF, Bris or Equibase. :cool:
I can provide a little info on PFs. Since 2000 there have been four Derby winners with the best 3yo route figure going into the race (Big Brown, Street Sense, Smarty Jones and Fusaichi Pegasus). One had the second best (Super Saver) and two had the third best (War Emblem and Monarchos).

For the other TC races I have readily available data just back to 2005. Three Preakness winners since then had the best 3yo figure (Shackleford, Rachel Alexandra and Big Brown). One had the second best (Afleet Alex) and one had the third best (Bernardini). In the Belmont, two since 2005 had the best 3yo figure (Rags to Riches and Afleet Alex) and two had the third best (Drosselmeyer and Jazil).

[Blenheim]

Thanks for posting the PFs . . . no doubt they have proved their stuff. :ThmbUp:
~
I've been followin' the PFs and the pace parameters closely this year and along with some pedigree data you have provided I'm thinkin' the Pletcher horse is lookin' pretty tough right now with Hansen and Union Rags right there with him. Hopefully he'll make it to the gate and he gets an off track. It'll be interesting to see how things shake out in the San Felipe with three Dual Qualifiers goin' in that one along with the Kwon horse, Groovin' Solo. Looks like the west coast boys might have somethin' for em' this year. Any thoughts on the San Felipe and this crop of Derby contenders?

Can't go without sayin' and givin' a good and fine thanks for the work you have done at your site this year, many of us appreciate it.
~
I've got a question or two regarding the PFs. How dependent are the PFs and the complete pace parameter data set upon the ability of the jockey? Can a bad ride or two skew the complete data set? And the data itself is dependent upon the observations of the chart callers. How reliable are any figures based upon what may be inaccurate data?

Thanks

Nothin' like the Derby Trail. Lookin' forward to the San Felipe, the Tampa Bay Derby and the Swale!

[Steve R]

Thanks for posting the PFs . . . no doubt they have proved their stuff. :ThmbUp:
~
I've been followin' the PFs and the pace parameters closely this year and along with some pedigree data you have provided I'm thinkin' the Pletcher horse is lookin' pretty tough right now with Hansen and Union Rags right there with him. Hopefully he'll make it to the gate and he gets an off track. It'll be interesting to see how things shake out in the San Felipe with three Dual Qualifiers goin' in that one along with the Kwon horse, Groovin' Solo. Looks like the west coast boys might have somethin' for em' this year. Any thoughts on the San Felipe and this crop of Derby contenders?

Can't go without sayin' and givin' a good and fine thanks for the work you have done at your site this year, many of us appreciate it.
~
I've got a question or two regarding the PFs. How dependent are the PFs and the complete pace parameter data set upon the ability of the jockey? Can a bad ride or two skew the complete data set? And the data itself is dependent upon the observations of the chart callers. How reliable are any figures based upon what may be inaccurate data?

Thanks

Nothin' like the Derby Trail. Lookin' forward to the San Felipe, the Tampa Bay Derby and the Swale!
I think the San Felipe field is by far the deepest to date on this year's TC trail. The class edge IMO goes to Creative Cause although Empire Way, Liaison, Rousing Sermon and Groovin' Solo are interesting.

To the extent a jockey affects the running and the outcome of a race he or she will have a large impact on the data one uses to analyze it. That's why it's much more preferable to have several races to consider in a final analysis.

And certainly the talent of the chart callers is critical to the accuracy of the analysis. Unfortunately, and regardless of how good the chart caller is, there are built-in inaccuracies in charts including imprecise measures like beaten lengths. But I've found that the one thing that creates more slack, at least for speed figures, is the variant. It's a separate discussion, but the concept of static or even clustered variants on a given day has problems. The change in surface characteristics is dynamic. The combination of track moisture, temperature, humidity, wind and other factors is in a constant state of flux. That's why I always use regression analysis to determine changes in track speed throughout the day. Occasionally the result justifies a different variant for each race, especially on days when a track is drying out.

[redshift1]

Non-handicapping addendum.

After 21 preps:

The mean Beyer is 94.10

The range is 82-105

Although the sample is small and the distribution is marginally skewed to the right here are some possible outcomes.

68.2% chance the next prep Beyer will be between 87.92-100.28.

95.4% chance the next prep Beyer will be between 81.74-106.46.

This compares favorably with last year when the Derby preps had a 82-104 range.

Interestingly, last years Triple Crown Beyers all exceeded 100 which statistically seems unusual compared to the preps but is probably a function of the TC fields being an aggregation of prep winners.
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[Valuist]

Comparing anything favorably to 2011 is like saying one is the biggest midget in the room.

[cj]

Comparing anything favorably to 2011 is like saying one is the biggest midget in the room.

Probably a dwarf then.

[redshift1]

Favorably as in quantitatively not qualitatively.

[cj]

Beyers from yesterday,

Wood Memorial, 98
Illinois Derby, 85
Santa Anita Derby, 94

[classhandicapper]

It's disappointing that no one has been able to step forward with a fast race. It's not that unusual for the 3YOs to be running high 90s in the early preps, but usually a couple of horses step forward.

[Pell Mell]

Beyers from yesterday,

Wood Memorial, 98
Illinois Derby, 85
Santa Anita Derby, 94

Not that I really care about the number but I think Gem will break that 100 with no problem in the derby... :ThmbUp:

[redshift1]

It's disappointing that no one has been able to step forward with a fast race. It's not that unusual for the 3YOs to be running high 90s in the early preps, but usually a couple of horses step forward.

Makes you wonder, I feel like this years crop is better and incrementally it is by a couple of Beyer points but no big numbers yet.

In 2009 five of the preps exceeded 108, 105 is tops this year.

http://test.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2009/preps.html


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[depalma113]

It's disappointing that no one has been able to step forward with a fast race. It's not that unusual for the 3YOs to be running high 90s in the early preps, but usually a couple of horses step forward.

They used to run more than twice. Now with the pathetic schedules, horses don't get that chance to step up.

[redshift1]

Non-handicapping addendum.

After 21 preps:

The mean Beyer is 94.10

The range is 82-105

Although the sample is small and the distribution is marginally skewed to the right here are some possible outcomes.

68.2% chance the next prep Beyer will be between 87.92-100.28.

95.4% chance the next prep Beyer will be between 81.74-106.46.

This compares favorably with last year when the Derby preps had a 82-104 range.

Interestingly, last years Triple Crown Beyers all exceeded 100 which statistically seems unusual compared to the preps but is probably a function of the TC fields being an aggregation of prep winners.
.


Looks like all the preps will fall within plus or minus two STDV's from the mean thanks to the strangely restrained 105 awarded to Bodiemeister.

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[classhandicapper]

They used to run more than twice. Now with the pathetic schedules, horses don't get that chance to step up.

Good point.

Everyone trying to peak on the same day.

[cj]

Interesting tidbit regarding Beyer figures. If you bet the top Beyer in the Kentucky Derby the last 20 years, you would have bet 24 horses due to ties. Six of the 24 won, a respectable 25% for such large fields, and the ROI is a ridiculous $3.48 for each $1 bet.

[maddog42]

Interesting tidbit regarding Beyer figures. If you bet the top Beyer in the Kentucky Derby the last 20 years, you would have bet 24 horses due to ties. Six of the 24 won, a respectable 25% for such large fields, and the ROI is a ridiculous $3.48 for each $1 bet.
What are those 6 winners?

[peeptoad]

Big Brown
Fu Peg
Silver Charm
Charismatic
War Emblem
Lil E Tee

If I'm not mistaken?

[rastajenk]

I know that Charismatic is one.

If I may take some guesses, I'd say Silver Charm is one, War Emblem, Funny Cide maybe, Smarty Jones...that'd be my sexfecta. :eek:

[PaceAdvantage]

Interesting tidbit regarding Beyer figures. If you bet the top Beyer in the Kentucky Derby the last 20 years, you would have bet 24 horses due to ties. Six of the 24 won, a respectable 25% for such large fields, and the ROI is a ridiculous $3.48 for each $1 bet.The funny thing is, Beyer gets slammed there too because I'm pretty sure most of those winners weren't his own personal top picks in print... :lol:

And those doing the slamming are the same ones who claim those who use speed figures are "slaves" to the figures and don't consider anything else... :lol: :lol:

The guy can't win with some folks, no matter what...

[cj]

The funny thing is, Beyer gets slammed there too because I'm pretty sure most of those winners weren't his own personal top picks in print... :lol:

And those doing the slamming are the same ones who claim those who use speed figures are "slaves" to the figures and don't consider anything else... :lol: :lol:

The guy can't win with some folks, no matter what...

If one thing is certain, people place too much emphasis on speed figures on your day to races. Another, though, is they place too much emphasis on minor things for TC races, especially the Derby, and BC days.

[Valuist]

Another, though, is they place too much emphasis on minor things for TC races, especially the Derby, and BC days.

True and its because the media focuses on ridiculous minutia. We hear about Horse A having a rough trip on the van ride because traffic was a little heavier than usual, or Horse B's last race can be tossed because his tongue tie was a tad too tight.

[cj]

Big Brown
Fu Peg
Silver Charm
Charismatic
War Emblem
Lil E Tee

If I'm not mistaken?

Yes, those are the winners.

[lamboguy]

is that the last race number?

[cj]

Yes.

[lamboguy]

that's pretty strong