Ness winning at 48% at Tampa

[tbwinner]

42 wins from 88 starts now.

Won with Stumbling Block just now in the 9th who is a 9yo they claimed back at Hawthorne for $5k last October. The horse has now won 4 in a row, from a $5k to $7k to $10k now a $16k claimer on turf.

ITPP? Great placement of horses? Other 'miracle' drugs?

[cj]

42 wins from 88 starts now.

Won with Stumbling Block just now in the 9th who is a 9yo they claimed back at Hawthorne for $5k last October. The horse has now won 4 in a row, from a $5k to $7k to $10k now a $16k claimer on turf.

ITPP? Great placement of horses? Other 'miracle' drugs?

I have no idea why Tampa would give this guy barns. How can this possibly be good for the product they offer? For all the supposed good things they have done, this just erases them twofold.

[PICSIX]

Oxygen Chamber???

[tzipi]

And they wonder why people stay away.

[illinoisbred]

42 wins from 88 starts now.

Won with Stumbling Block just now in the 9th who is a 9yo they claimed back at Hawthorne for $5k last October. The horse has now won 4 in a row, from a $5k to $7k to $10k now a $16k claimer on turf.

ITPP? Great placement of horses? Other 'miracle' drugs?
Have all the winners been Midwest owned? They like trainers that push it to threshold and....

[Beachbabe]

The man is a wonder of wonders. He's doing almost the same thing at Laurel.
I play Tampa once in awhile but I wont play any race where he has an entry, which limits my horizontals there.
And Yes !! All his horses are owned by Midwest.

[tbwinner]

Have all the winners been Midwest owned? They like trainers that push it to threshold and....

Yes, according to Formulator. Excluding today's wins his runners are at $2.40 ROI.

[phattty]

i live in tampa and have always enjoyed a successful strike rate here...

but lets look at this year........there just isn't much stock to oppose the Ness monsters...most players where i hang out have eschewed the local product for gulf, oak, nyra....

seems other trainers that came loaded for bear here just aren't interested in contending with him....cheat or not, his horses run and really fast...

i have slowed my my tampa play , and most times i just stay home and wager more selectively

from what i understand, he bought a farm in the area...and he considers it home, so it isn't gonna get any better anytime soon

[Tom]

And they wonder why people stay away.

No one goes there anymore. It's too crowded.
--Yogi

[tzipi]

No one goes there anymore. It's too crowded.
--Yogi

:D Love that saying by Yogi.

[Robert Fischer]

Anecdotal - some of his horses are in great shape and keep fighting hard through the stretch.

[phattty]

Anecdotal - some of his horses are in great shape and keep fighting hard through the stretch.



yes ...they all seem to re-break if needed for the stretch run

[rrpic6]

Oxygen Chamber???

I'll be at Tampa Bay Downs in 10 days. Where can I find an Oxygen Chamber there?
RR

[tbwinner]

yes ...they all seem to re-break if needed for the stretch run

ITPP is apparently what recently has been said to be responsible for this.

http://cangamble.blogspot.com/2010/09/is-itpp-super-trainers-drug-of-choice.html

[tbwinner]

I'll be at Tampa Bay Downs in 10 days. Where can I find an Oxygen Chamber there?
RR

I don't believe there is one on the grounds of TBD.

Several farms in the area have them.
http://www.equinehyperbariccenter.com/pages/home.php

[CincyHorseplayer]

I've beat him twice this season but that's it.He's becoming a page turner.His claimed horses get so much better after start #2 that you turn the page on any race they are in.

Is the overall quality of the races down this year or am I just getting pickier with age?

[NJ Stinks]

I've beat him twice this season but that's it.He's becoming a page turner.His claimed horses get so much better after start #2 that you turn the page on any race they are in.

Is the overall quality of the races down this year or am I just getting pickier with age?

I'm another page turner with Ness. I gave up a couple weeks ago.

Pletcher at Gulfstream in a sprint for young horses is another toss out for me.

[lamboguy]

the place is missing a few trainers there this year, and a few top trainers don't have the same stock that they used to bring there every year like GERALD BENNETT and BRUCE ALEXANDER. if the missing were still there, NESS would only be at 40%.

maybe those guys don't think they can win to many races there with NESS around. ALEXANDER split his stock up between NEW YORK and TAMPA. he only sent his turf horses down south this year and he's not even there.

[Niko]

Just look for those big pops in the triple crown races this year again....I think Pletcher has taken it to another level this year again, give a good trainer a little more of an edge and wow!!!

[CincyHorseplayer]

I'm another page turner with Ness. I gave up a couple weeks ago.

Pletcher at Gulfstream in a sprint for young horses is another toss out for me.

I've been beating up on overbet horses from Pletcher and Graham Motion at Gulfstream and Tampa.I was amazed to get 5-1 on a horse Saturday at GP in race 2 that had a 13 point speed advantage on a Pletcher horse via CJ's figs.The competition ain't that sophisticated at all times!!

If these guys are equal with the competition though they usually win.

[Striker]

Again these stats boggle my mind. I don't know how many different trainers this horse had but I know Chris Block originally had him, Michael Reavis, Dale Bennett, and Frank Kirby had him also. The horse has raced 70 times and has 19 wins, 13 of those have come with Ness. The horse had 5 wins from 35 races before Ness first had him 12/13/08. Kirby had the horse for 7 races when he claimed him 3/24/11 at Oaklawn. Kirby got 1 win out of those 7 tries and that was the race Ness claimed him out of. Kirby had to drop the horse to the Clm 5000(nw1 6m) to get that win. A little irony here is that Ness first claimed this horse off Roger Brueggemann on 12/13/2008 and had him for 21 races and won 9 of those. Other factors that have me scratching my head include that this horse has 1 listed work(11/23 at Del) since Roger B claimed the horse off Frank Kirby for Midwest on 10/1/11. I guess this 9yo has an amazing fitness level and needs only races to maintain that fitness, sure it can happen but it wasn't happening before Ness had him. And Ness lost this horse originaly to Kirby for 16k on 3/24/11. Kirby eventually dangled this horse at 10k for 3 races and there were no bites by anybody including Ness. If Ness wanted him back this would have made sense to me to take him back at a level 6k less than he lost him for, but no he waited and took him at 5k.

[Striker]

Before Ness claimed him 12/13/08-----horse was 5 for 35

With Ness until 3/24/11----horse was 9 for 21

With Frank Kirby until 10/1/11----horse was 1 for 7

Roger B was listed for 1 race and the horse went 0 for 1

Ness to the present------horse is 4 for 6

Ness overall with the horse 13 wins out of 28 races (46%)

Everyone else is 6 for 42 (14%)

Simply amazing.

[JustRalph]

Is this guy Beyer wrote about a while back?

If not, somebody ask Andy to look at it..........

[MNslappy]

Ness overall with the horse 13 wins out of 28 races (46%)

Everyone else is 6 for 42 (14%)

Simply amazing.

WOW.

[dav4463]

One thing I've done for a while is skip any race where there is a trainer with a 35% or higher win rate for the year or meet with a minimum of 20 races. It saves money.

[CincyHorseplayer]

After reconsidering my mini rant and looking at the results from the last 2 Saturdays,I'm heating up and still getting good prices.A lot of my prices are longer odds to place in exactas,15-1 on lone speed on turf under favorite,22-1 well bred for turf nose loss,14-1 on dropper to Ness.I got an unbelievable 7-1 on a Clemente 1st starter(21% win) on a 3yo Bernardini filly who was posting bullets at Palm Meadows( a 3yo filly!),who if she didn't blow the break would've blown the field away.The 2 horses I beat Ness with were fit and figswise solid horses at 6-1 and 10-1.I just lost my first 2 races this weekend in 4 weeks in the 2-1,5/2,3-1 range in going 8 for 10.I had all those horses at even money or slightly higher on my line,great value I don't think I would get anywhere else.Just turn the page on Ness "Phenomenon" horses.The value is still there.

[1st time lasix]

My friends and i who play TBD are absolutely convinced he cheats and we are shocked that officials have either not investigated or can't detect what he is giving his horses. There must be fifty years of handicapping experience in our group. It is simply a disgrace.

[Some_One]

One thing I've done for a while is skip any race where there is a trainer with a 35% or higher win rate for the year or meet with a minimum of 20 races. It saves money.

Exactly what I do, Ness, Guerrero, Precedio, Mitchell, Beattie I just don't touch. Hopefully other will start doing this till the tracks realize these trainers are bad for racing.

[Fastracehorse]

one good thing about Ness is he is there to win races
and he doesn't ruin race cards - i like playing Tampa

many players that frequent here are sophisticated horse players; and are looking for value so Ness can b a headache - but u might b able to string together a nice p-4 w/ a value horse, etc., etc..

Pletcher duz dominate GP but the venue is still excellent

Baffert dominates on the West Coast
strangely he won with a firster at 5 or 6-1 on Sat - that blew the field away ( how does that happen?? ) - especially after he did the same thing the race before with odds on

fffastt

[David-LV]

After reconsidering my mini rant and looking at the results from the last 2 Saturdays,I'm heating up and still getting good prices.A lot of my prices are longer odds to place in exactas,15-1 on lone speed on turf under favorite,22-1 well bred for turf nose loss,14-1 on dropper to Ness.I got an unbelievable 7-1 on a Clemente 1st starter(21% win) on a 3yo Bernardini filly who was posting bullets at Palm Meadows( a 3yo filly!),who if she didn't blow the break would've blown the field away.The 2 horses I beat Ness with were fit and figswise solid horses at 6-1 and 10-1.I just lost my first 2 races this weekend in 4 weeks in the 2-1,5/2,3-1 range in going 8 for 10.I had all those horses at even money or slightly higher on my line,great value I don't think I would get anywhere else.Just turn the page on Ness "Phenomenon" horses.The value is still there.

Excellent strategy.
Lots of bombs running underneath both at Tampa and Gulfstream.

__________
David-LV

[CincyHorseplayer]

Excellent strategy.
Lots of bombs running underneath both at Tampa and Gulfstream.

__________
David-LV

Those double digit horses that you deem live are value in any bet for sure.Beyond 7-1 I bet 50/50 both to win/place and in exactas.My 10 year history with these type of horses puts them in the place slot far more often,the value is still there bigtime though.Thanks David.

[andtheyreoff]

Equibase stats for Tampa:

1 Jamie Ness 98 45 19 10 $482,932 46% 74 76%
2 Gerald S. Bennett 92 14 19 11 $204,835 15% 44 48%
3 Kathleen O'Connell 99 13 15 10 $200,885 13% 38 38%
4 Mark E. Casse 8 2 3 0 $175,190 25% 5 63%
5 Thomas F. Proctor 46 10 12 3 $160,388 22% 25 54%
6 Lynne M. Scace 54 11 5 8 $159,630 20% 24 44%
7 Leigh Delacour 45 11 5 5 $147,802 24% 21 47%
8 Jorge Navarro 46 14 8 9 $144,170 30% 31 67%
9 Joan Scott 46 12 7 9 $132,743 26% 28 61%
10 Dennis Ward 45 10 8 4 $119,145 22% 22 49%

So not only is Ness in the lead at Tampa in wins and prize money, no one's even close to him. And it's showing in the handles- a recent article by Beyer noted Tampa's handle has declined $500k a day since Opening Day.

Hmmm, wonder why?

[shouldacoulda]

Do trainers get licensed by state or nationally? Maybe they need to enforce a nationwide suspension if it occurs in one state. That might deter some of the questionable activity. The rewards outweigh the punishment by far from what I have seen.

[lamboguy]

Do trainers get licensed by state or nationally? Maybe they need to enforce a nationwide suspension if it occurs in one state. That might deter some of the questionable activity. The rewards outweigh the punishment by far from what I have seen.
they are licensed by the state.

as far as MIDWEST THOROUGHBREDS go. they train all their horses systematically, what i personally think is a great method. i have no idea if they are able to skirt the laws of racing jurisdictions all over the country. the people that are MIDWEST THOROUGHBREDS do not need to steal money from the public.

all we have on this thread so far is that someone spoke to an exercise rider that claims NESS can't be trusted. i have no idea why he didn't go to some authority to explain himself. we also have people that perceive that these guys are doing something wrong, but don't know how to pinpoint it.

i am not trying to stick up for these guys either, i think there is something wrong when someone wins at 48%. its certainly no good for horse racing. and its not like these guys just did it this year on a fluke, they are consistent.

in the NFL and NBA, they try to level off the playing field because they know if they don't the game will die. its no different in horse racing.

in the MEADOWLANDS HARNESS MEET this year they took blood samples on a trainer's horses before they ran and afterwards. maybe the same thing needs to be done here.

[tbwinner]

Can we all agree though that they're using something? We don't know what it is exactly, but it's something?

[CincyHorseplayer]

Can we all agree Ness is beatable at great odds in plenty or at least enough situations?


There is enough there.When the phenomenons show up just turn the page.If not,take the stones out of your pocket and take the payoff.

[tbwinner]

Can we all agree Ness is beatable at great odds in plenty or at least enough situations?


There is enough there.When the phenomenons show up just turn the page.If not,take the stones out of your pocket and take the payoff.

Sure, there are ways we can benefit with our wagers. BUT, it really doesn't do any good for the sport as a whole IMO and turns a lot of people away.

[Dahoss9698]

Can we all agree Ness is beatable at great odds in plenty or at least enough situations?


There is enough there.When the phenomenons show up just turn the page.If not,take the stones out of your pocket and take the payoff.

The guy is winning at nearly 50% and has a positive ROI for the meet, despite being the favorite with almost 2/3's of his starters. That's hard to beat no matter how you look at it.

I'm all for trying to beat the favorite and glad you are having success there, but at some point it becomes less about handicapping and more about just guessing, which is not why I'm doing this. How do you decipher which horse is a "phenomenon" and which horse is beatable?

[CincyHorseplayer]

The guy is winning at nearly 50% and has a positive ROI for the meet, despite being the favorite with almost 2/3's of his starters. That's hard to beat no matter how you look at it.

I'm all for trying to beat the favorite and glad you are having success there, but at some point it becomes less about handicapping and more about just guessing, which is not why I'm doing this. How do you decipher which horse is a "phenomenon" and which horse is beatable?

I've only done it twice this meet Dahoss at good odds and had 2 under at double digits.A lot of the races really are page turners.I'm only a Saturday player so I think I'm doing OK.

I've come to the conclusion if it's not obvious that a horse has a 10 point speed advantage,if he is a 2nd off the claim starter by Ness that those go up by 8 points or better.I will not usually bet against him.Those are the phenomenon horses by Ness to me.They get lightning and cocaine that 2nd time out.I don't like it either.

[Striker]

Again my questions about him don't necessarily all come from him winning at 50% although that will surely attract questions. I want to know why most horses he trains almost turn their careers in the opposite direction before he had them? It is not just with horses he claims off others, its with horses that are past around some of the other Midwest trainers. Why do these horses suddenly win with Ness? An example with a horse running this saturday, Sealaunch. This horse was 2-1-1 in 18 races for frank Springer before Midwest claimed her with Cody Autrey as the trainer. Autrey raced her 1 time at Lone star and the horse finished 3rd of 6 at the Clm15000 level. The horse is then past to Roger Brueggemann and raced at Arlington 5 times and got a win at the nw3L level on polytrack. That was also the only race of the 5 that the horse finished in the money. All 5 races were conditioned races, 3 at nw3L and 2 at nw4L. Horse now is transferred to Ness and is not races again for 2 months. Comes back at Laurel to open Clm10000 and wins an off the turf event with only 4 horses. Moves up and races again in a Aoc nw2x for the tag and finishes 5th. Now we go to Tampa and this horse even gets no action for a Ness horse. Runs in a Aoc nw1x for the tag and wins at 6-1 on 1/8 and then wins again in open Clm16000 at 4-1 on 1/29. Horse finished 4th on 2/16 in a Aoc nw2x. So since Ness has had her, the horse has won 3 times in 5 races with 1 race being at the lowest level the horse was ever at for 10k at Laurel. Roger B had the horse for 5 races also in conditioned races and managed 1 win and that was it. If this was only happening once or twice then fine I look the other way, but it happens more often than not with this guy.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Rereading everybody's posts I can't disagree at all.I came up with the horses when Quinn was posting his "Playing The Horses In Troubled Times" and Beyer was saying much of the same unless you played twin trifectas or pick 6's.In short,it's always been,for lack of a better word,f**ked up,to try to make money.I did make a lot of money when I came up to speed up until about 2001.Then everything seemed to drop off precipitously.I had River Downs meets where I did actually win by having a 40% win at 2-1 mutuel and was crushing those big $12-20 exactas with the 1-2 choices at $20-30 a pop.Real fun!

It has got annoying,meets getting both watered down and supertrainer laden.I hate the situation so bad I relish the times I do beat their as$.But near 50%?That's BS.Playing the horses in troubled times is where my horseplaying life started.I can't let them win unless they are 1-1 on my line or less and no bet though.I'm not taking their BS medication training miracles.I'm geting my fair share.I hate the situation but I'm not backing off.Aaarrrggghhhh.