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teddy
02-12-2012, 12:28 PM
Wanting to see how often I can pick the first call leader... I am assuming its 2 furlongs on sprints and 4 on routes.. although my software gives a time for 2 furlongs out on sprints. I will go with the first chart call.

Going to do 100 and see if I can pick above 60%.

tampa 1-3

teddy
02-12-2012, 12:43 PM
aq 2-7

tampa 2-8

teddy
02-12-2012, 01:02 PM
last 1000 races in all dist all surfaces, first call leader won 29% of the time. Roi was 1.30

if the first call leader was the favorite it returned 1.15 and won 53% of the time.. you would have to be correct 100% of the time as to whether the fav would make the lead.. impossible..just to win 1.15...

gp 2-6

teddy
02-12-2012, 01:08 PM
tp 1-6
aq 3-3

teddy
02-12-2012, 01:22 PM
2 for 6 so far.... 1 winner..6.60

tampa race 3-1

teddy
02-12-2012, 01:28 PM
3 of 7 ...woo hoo..


tp 2-4

teddy
02-12-2012, 01:45 PM
aqu 4-4

teddy
02-12-2012, 01:49 PM
4 of 9 $19 in winners
after aqueduct...

I have decided if I have no clue or info to go on then I wont make a pick.. I will try to make a guess if i can SEE it not a guess between 4 horses that have equal speed on paper.

teddy
02-12-2012, 01:58 PM
tp 3-4

PICSIX
02-12-2012, 02:21 PM
Good luck, I had a lot of them on the front yesterday...they couldn't hold on. Did have a couple bombs run 3rd.

Mike

teddy
02-12-2012, 02:52 PM
gp race 6 the 1


Thanks Mike... this is really fun to do, probably a good exercise...


4 of 10 so far... makes you wonder if you only played tracks with known speed bias how you would fare... would it adjust on its own because of smart players like mountainman...

teddy
02-12-2012, 03:01 PM
Cool... 5 0f 11 and 27.00 in win wagers won...

teddy
02-12-2012, 03:05 PM
tp 5-4

teddy
02-12-2012, 03:09 PM
aq 7-7

teddy
02-12-2012, 03:11 PM
7 of 13

31.00 in win wagers

teddy
02-12-2012, 03:26 PM
tup 3 - 5

teddy
02-12-2012, 03:36 PM
8 of 14....

aq 8-1

teddy
02-12-2012, 03:45 PM
9 of 15.... $42.00 return...

teddy
02-12-2012, 03:54 PM
tup 4 the 2

teddy
02-12-2012, 03:59 PM
9/16 ahhh dang.. beat 2 noses ..

teddy
02-12-2012, 04:02 PM
sa 2 the 1

teddy
02-12-2012, 04:04 PM
10/17 second again..

teddy
02-12-2012, 04:05 PM
tp 7 the 9

teddy
02-12-2012, 04:10 PM
11/18

teddy
02-12-2012, 04:13 PM
tampa 9-6

teddy
02-12-2012, 04:20 PM
op 5 the 8

teddy
02-12-2012, 04:23 PM
tup 5-4

teddy
02-12-2012, 04:28 PM
14/21 $46 returned.... the illusion here is that we have been on plenty of long shots... under 7-1 we would be very profitable...but one long shot and we would have killed.

teddy
02-12-2012, 04:48 PM
gg 3-2

teddy
02-12-2012, 04:51 PM
tup 6-5

teddy
02-12-2012, 06:03 PM
16 of 23.... 2 very close races that I think i was in front at the call.. still $52 returned so far...

teddy
02-12-2012, 07:13 PM
15 of 23.. tup race ruled back a head at the half.

teddy
02-12-2012, 07:19 PM
16 of 23.... 2 very close races that I think i was in front at the call.. still $52 returned so far...


2 other horses we selected won and paid 8.80 total. But were not first call leaders...regardless you collected.

actual profit revenue was $60 after 23 races....but I do not want to turn this into a picking winners thing.. just picking the lead horse at the call..

teddy
02-12-2012, 07:22 PM
gg race 8-2

teddy
02-12-2012, 07:26 PM
16 of 24.. nice place price... missed lead by nose at the first call..

teddy
02-12-2012, 08:07 PM
los al 1-5

teddy
02-12-2012, 08:55 PM
17/25

$57 first call winners

$65 total revenue of all selections..

teddy
02-12-2012, 08:58 PM
los al 3-3 was a play, board would not allow me to post 2 posts in 1 min..

teddy
02-12-2012, 08:59 PM
18/26

$61 first call winners

$66 all plays

teddy
02-12-2012, 09:06 PM
hou race 8 -7

teddy
02-12-2012, 09:09 PM
los al 5-2

teddy
02-12-2012, 10:13 PM
day ends on a bang

19 of 28 fcl

$75 revenue for only horses at the lead on the first call.. 1.33 roi

$81 revenue for all horses.. 1.44 roi..

After day one this reflects close to the real roi for all first call leaders..we hit near 66% fcl which is very good. after a few races I tightened down my play to races where I could feel good i was on the speed.. Not just a guess.
I did pass races where the speed horse was higher than 10-1 and 40 pts slower on speed figs. I did not do much for comparison handicapping, Each race took less than 2 min to assess... I tried to skip races with obvious speed duels of 4 horses..unless one had a speed adv and inside..

teddy
02-13-2012, 02:03 PM
beu race 3 -6 monday

teddy
02-13-2012, 02:16 PM
prx 5-6

teddy
02-13-2012, 02:27 PM
20/30

turf par
1-6

teddy
02-13-2012, 02:30 PM
beu 4-4

teddy
02-13-2012, 03:03 PM
tup 2-5

teddy
02-13-2012, 03:09 PM
prx 7-8

teddy
02-13-2012, 03:13 PM
20/33

teddy
02-13-2012, 03:22 PM
beu 4-5

teddy
02-13-2012, 03:30 PM
tup 3-2

teddy
02-13-2012, 03:51 PM
beu race 7-5

teddy
02-13-2012, 04:04 PM
21/36 noticing downward spiral when picks dont make the lead..

teddy
02-13-2012, 04:27 PM
prx 10-9

teddy
02-13-2012, 04:31 PM
tup 5-7

teddy
02-13-2012, 04:38 PM
23/38 but no winners today...

teddy
02-13-2012, 05:29 PM
hou 9-8

teddy
02-13-2012, 07:03 PM
$85 on total revenue thru 39 picks

23 of 39

teddy
02-14-2012, 02:54 PM
beu 5-4

mistergee
02-14-2012, 03:45 PM
hi Teddy, following along, how many races do you use to get a pace figure on a horse, and do you only use races at the same distance or close to it---thanks

teddy
02-15-2012, 12:58 PM
tampa 2-5

teddy
02-15-2012, 12:59 PM
hi Teddy, following along, how many races do you use to get a pace figure on a horse, and do you only use races at the same distance or close to it---thanks
Pretty much just a look at first fraction and position against other speed and make a guess if the horse will be sent hard or just has a hidden speed adv.

teddy
02-15-2012, 01:05 PM
gp 2-4

teddy
02-15-2012, 01:09 PM
25/41 $ 88 total revenue.

teddy
02-15-2012, 01:27 PM
25/41 $ 88 total revenue.


laural 3-1

teddy
02-15-2012, 04:08 PM
aq 9-4

teddy
02-15-2012, 04:19 PM
26/42 $92

teddy
02-15-2012, 05:47 PM
GO SPEED BALLS....

teddy
02-15-2012, 06:34 PM
PM 9-2

teddy
02-15-2012, 07:02 PM
27/43

teddy
02-15-2012, 07:04 PM
62% so far, about double what software was able to do... for fr1.

teddy
02-15-2012, 10:51 PM
40% is about the fr1 statistic of horses that go off under 3-1, that make the lead at the first call. I am running about 62%. I slowed down the number of races I play in the last few days because of work constraints.. also tried harder to be sure I was on the lead horse.. results improved of course.. price dropped though.

teddy
02-15-2012, 11:14 PM
So far place is ahead 12.00 and show ahead 8.00

my count is off so I have done 46 races with 27 on top at first call..

teddy
02-17-2012, 12:19 PM
aqueduct race 1 the 3 .. friday.

teddy
02-17-2012, 12:35 PM
gp 1-6

teddy
02-17-2012, 12:55 PM
29 of 48


profit or loss so far... w, p s
4.70
12.60
7.70

teddy
02-17-2012, 01:41 PM
beu 2-3

teddy
02-17-2012, 01:53 PM
30/48

5.10
13
7.70

teddy
02-17-2012, 05:28 PM
turf 7-3

teddy
02-17-2012, 05:31 PM
30/49

teddy
02-18-2012, 10:32 AM
3.10
11.00
5.70

teddy
02-18-2012, 02:28 PM
GP 5-5

teddy
02-18-2012, 03:29 PM
30/50
1.10
9
3.70

teddy
02-18-2012, 10:32 PM
ct 8-5

teddy
02-18-2012, 10:36 PM
31/41

-1.00
7.00
1.70

teddy
02-18-2012, 10:39 PM
la6-6

teddy
02-18-2012, 10:47 PM
31/51
6.60
8.80
2.30

teddy
02-18-2012, 10:49 PM
hou 7-1

teddy
02-18-2012, 10:57 PM
31/52
4.60
6.80
.30

teddy
02-18-2012, 10:59 PM
ct 9-10

teddy
02-18-2012, 11:13 PM
32/53
20.40
11.40
3.50

stay with the speed long enough and you get some big prices.. with the ebb and flow of it, I still think early speed is underbet...as long as you can get 60% or better first call leaders, the prices will just come.

teddy
02-19-2012, 01:11 PM
tp1-5

teddy
02-19-2012, 01:17 PM
32/54
18.40
9.40
1.50

teddy
02-19-2012, 01:21 PM
tam3-1

teddy
02-19-2012, 01:30 PM
33/55
16.40
10
1.70

teddy
02-19-2012, 01:51 PM
tam 4-2

teddy
02-19-2012, 01:59 PM
34/56
14.40
8
-.30

teddy
02-19-2012, 02:06 PM
fg 2-3

teddy
02-19-2012, 02:18 PM
35/57
12.40
6
1.60

teddy
02-19-2012, 02:20 PM
tampa 5-9

teddy
02-19-2012, 02:28 PM
15.60
7.40
2

35/58

teddy
02-19-2012, 06:26 PM
hou 2-1

teddy
02-19-2012, 06:35 PM
36/58

13.6
5.40
00

teddy
02-19-2012, 06:38 PM
sa7-5

teddy
02-19-2012, 06:57 PM
hou 3-2

37/59
11.60
740
0

teddy
02-19-2012, 07:05 PM
38/60
15.60
9
1

teddy
02-19-2012, 07:19 PM
gg 8-5

teddy
02-19-2012, 07:28 PM
38/61

13.6
7
-1

teddy
02-20-2012, 01:02 PM
GP 2-4

teddy
02-20-2012, 01:13 PM
39/62


11.60
5


.60

teddy
02-20-2012, 02:24 PM
hou 2-1

teddy
02-20-2012, 02:26 PM
tup 1-3

teddy
02-20-2012, 02:56 PM
40/64
11.20
6
1.70

teddy
02-20-2012, 03:29 PM
sa 1-7

teddy
02-20-2012, 03:41 PM
41/65
12
6.10
1.70

teddy
02-20-2012, 04:45 PM
gg 3-4

teddy
02-20-2012, 05:37 PM
13.40
6.40
2.10


42/66

teddy
02-20-2012, 06:27 PM
tup 9-2

teddy
02-20-2012, 06:37 PM
42/67
11.40
4.40



4.10

teddy
02-21-2012, 02:28 PM
beu 4-1

teddy
02-21-2012, 02:57 PM
tup 2-1

teddy
02-21-2012, 02:59 PM
42/68
9.40
520
430

teddy
02-21-2012, 03:41 PM
43/68
15.40
6
4.5

teddy
02-21-2012, 04:40 PM
fg 7-5

teddy
02-21-2012, 05:00 PM
43/69

18.2
6.4
4.6

teddy
02-21-2012, 05:18 PM
fg 8-5

teddy
02-21-2012, 07:57 PM
43/70


16.20
4.40



5.60

teddy
02-22-2012, 04:11 PM
tampa 9-10

teddy
02-22-2012, 04:30 PM
44/71

14.20
240
8

teddy
02-22-2012, 07:39 PM
ct 2-4

teddy
02-22-2012, 07:51 PM
12.20
.40
5


44/72

teddy
02-22-2012, 08:25 PM
ct 4-1

teddy
02-22-2012, 08:48 PM
45/73



16.80

2.00

6.20

teddy
02-22-2012, 09:52 PM
ct7=8

teddy
02-22-2012, 10:19 PM
20.60
4
6.80


46/74


about 150 bet wps... profits 31.40.... 5 percent rebates... 22.00... Pretty steady profits with little handicapping involved... HILARIOUS!! 12 % PROFIT WITH REBATES.. I AM STAYING OUT OF RACES WHERE i DONT FEEL MY HORSE HAS A VERY GOOD CHANCE TO MAKE THE TOP. SEEMS LIKE A VERY GOOD WAY TO BET THE PONIES..

teddy
02-23-2012, 12:23 PM
tampa 1-3

teddy
02-23-2012, 12:44 PM
21.20

4.4
6.9

46/75

teddy
02-23-2012, 01:04 PM
gp 2-9

teddy
02-23-2012, 01:14 PM
47/76
21.6
4.5
7

teddy
02-23-2012, 01:18 PM
aq3-1

teddy
02-23-2012, 01:33 PM
27.90
8.1
8.1


47/77

teddy
02-23-2012, 01:50 PM
aq 4-4

teddy
02-23-2012, 02:12 PM
48/78
25.90
6.1



8.6

teddy
02-23-2012, 02:15 PM
aq 5-4

teddy
02-23-2012, 02:25 PM
tam 5-1

teddy
02-23-2012, 02:49 PM
49/80

24.80
13
11.3

teddy
02-23-2012, 05:49 PM
fg 9-2

teddy
02-23-2012, 06:14 PM
49/81

22.8

15.6



12.70

teddy
02-24-2012, 07:54 PM
ded 4-5

teddy
02-25-2012, 12:08 AM
50/82
20.7
17.8
13.1

teddy
02-25-2012, 12:44 PM
aq 2-3

teddy
02-25-2012, 12:56 PM
tampa 2-7

PICSIX
02-25-2012, 12:59 PM
aq 2-3

On same horse. Hopefully they disallow objection.

teddy
02-25-2012, 01:13 PM
51/84

22.7
19.20
13.50

Yes pic6 we got that one home.. I am truly amazed with the results of such a simple thing... People wasting so much money and time on software, yet no body is trying to make software to pick the race leader... at tracks with speed bias its deadly..

PICSIX
02-25-2012, 01:19 PM
51/84

22.7
19.20
13.50

Yes pic6 we got that one home.. I am truly amazed with the results of such a simple thing... People wasting so much money and time on software, yet no body is trying to make software to pick the race leader... at tracks with speed bias its deadly..


Shhhhhhhhhhhhhh :lol:

teddy
02-25-2012, 01:31 PM
gp 3-1

teddy
02-25-2012, 01:37 PM
51/85

20..7
17.20
11.50



not sure the gp had the lead so not counting it as a leader..

teddy
02-25-2012, 01:49 PM
aq 4-5

teddy
02-25-2012, 01:55 PM
51/86

22.10
17.70
11.60

teddy
02-25-2012, 02:17 PM
tampa 5-1

teddy
02-25-2012, 02:35 PM
52/87

20.10
19.50
12.40

teddy
02-25-2012, 02:42 PM
tp 4-6

teddy
02-25-2012, 02:50 PM
52/88

18.10
24.30
13.40

place prices !!

teddy
02-25-2012, 02:57 PM
tup 1-5

teddy
02-25-2012, 06:31 PM
tup 8-1

teddy
02-25-2012, 06:51 PM
53/90


16.80
22.40
11.50

teddy
02-26-2012, 12:50 PM
AQ 2-1

teddy
02-26-2012, 12:59 PM
53/91


16.80
27.80
13.80

teddy
02-26-2012, 01:16 PM
AQ 3-1

teddy
02-26-2012, 01:29 PM
54/91


14.80
25.80
13.80

teddy
02-26-2012, 01:35 PM
TP 2-6

teddy
02-26-2012, 01:45 PM
54/92


16.20
25.90
13.90

teddy
02-26-2012, 02:06 PM
FG 2-3

teddy
02-26-2012, 02:46 PM
TAM 6-1

teddy
02-26-2012, 02:49 PM
54/93


14.20
23.90
14.50

teddy
02-26-2012, 02:53 PM
54/94


12.20
21.90
12.50

teddy
02-26-2012, 03:09 PM
HAW 2-7

teddy
02-26-2012, 03:16 PM
54/95


10.20
19.90
13.30

teddy
02-26-2012, 05:20 PM
OP7-2

teddy
02-26-2012, 05:29 PM
55/96


13.40
22.10
14.10

teddy
02-26-2012, 05:37 PM
SA 5-8

teddy
02-26-2012, 06:52 PM
55/97


11.40
20.10
12.10

teddy
02-27-2012, 03:15 PM
Closing in on 100

tup 2-1

teddy
02-27-2012, 07:16 PM
Registered User

55/98


9.40
18.10
10.10

teddy
02-29-2012, 01:53 PM
tampa 4-5

teddy
03-01-2012, 07:06 PM
Sa 7-5