turninforhome10
02-11-2012, 10:01 PM
Sam Houston 6th race
Sam Houston sports a top notch grass course so lets try to see if a pedigree can find us an angel in this 1 mile grassy affair. Since I am putting horses in the Tesio DB, thought I would see if there is diamond in the rough.
First thing I noticed is three horses that are still owned by their breeder :1: :3: :7: . I feel there is only 3 reasons for this with 3 yo fillies
1)Would not sell well at sale
2)Won't sell as breeder with valued siblings
3) Kept for racing
Now ask yourself with the others. Where did they sell and for how much?
First thing I notice is the :5: was Farish bred (AP Indy) and sold for 4k as yearling in TX. Cull
Next I notice the :2: is a Van Nistelroy out Vettori mare. Turf breeding right. Sold for less than the stallion fee. Looks like distance right. Mare has produced no turf route winners in 4 starts for 3 starters 2 winners. Scratched
Then the :4: .1k for a Pleasantly Perfect( must not have been much to look at or or sold late in the session) for family connections. Family is nice pedigree wise, but looks to be just trying to get checks. Best might hit board if someone else falters.
:6: Connections are trying to squeeze every drop of this 5k bargain Filly is tail female to dam of Nearctic (Lady Angela is 6th dam) 2nd dam is Graded winner in Italy.Dam is Stakes winner and multiple Stakes producer. Has nice dosage for this event (see below). Classic example IMHO of an owner getting a nice young horse and running the wheels off. Not excited about form decline. Pass
May God strike me down if I did not get my boss to call Kenny Mcpeek to buy Repent after his first start. Kenny said the bidding started at 400k. Way out of our league.
The owner breeders
:7: Camilia Casby is one of the better breeders from Minnesota. She has bred some nice horses but this one has come from a mare that has shown affinity for producing sprinters and you have to assume that with those that have been tried on the grass were MN breds againist Mn breds. Has not run since 2 and this one is short on pedigree quality. If my data base has to go back 3 gens and can't find anything then pass.
:3: Miracle Lake Owner bred dam and she did not run well. Has produced 2 winner but this looks like a owner bought the Deputy Commander in Utero after the 2nd dam hit with the Mizzen Mast Horse(12k). Trying to breed best but Friends Lake was poor choice. This one has a shot to run big but turf is not deal. The 2yo grass experiment with speed is better than really is as 3yo is my gut here.
All this nonsense to get to the fact I like the favorite and as pedigree guy I am big fan of Hard Spun because of the Danzig Alydar cross. Horse ran bravely in last even though being defeated and since I advocate for grass extending speed and the fact that this homebred is bred like she see below. Think that Landeros gets it done on one meant for grass.
Winner based on above logic the :1:
Winner based on sale price and return to owner :6:
Just sharing some thought as some will start thinking about 3yo fillies this time of year.
Good Cappin and hope your track is always fast and your turf is firm. :lol:
Sam Houston sports a top notch grass course so lets try to see if a pedigree can find us an angel in this 1 mile grassy affair. Since I am putting horses in the Tesio DB, thought I would see if there is diamond in the rough.
First thing I noticed is three horses that are still owned by their breeder :1: :3: :7: . I feel there is only 3 reasons for this with 3 yo fillies
1)Would not sell well at sale
2)Won't sell as breeder with valued siblings
3) Kept for racing
Now ask yourself with the others. Where did they sell and for how much?
First thing I notice is the :5: was Farish bred (AP Indy) and sold for 4k as yearling in TX. Cull
Next I notice the :2: is a Van Nistelroy out Vettori mare. Turf breeding right. Sold for less than the stallion fee. Looks like distance right. Mare has produced no turf route winners in 4 starts for 3 starters 2 winners. Scratched
Then the :4: .1k for a Pleasantly Perfect( must not have been much to look at or or sold late in the session) for family connections. Family is nice pedigree wise, but looks to be just trying to get checks. Best might hit board if someone else falters.
:6: Connections are trying to squeeze every drop of this 5k bargain Filly is tail female to dam of Nearctic (Lady Angela is 6th dam) 2nd dam is Graded winner in Italy.Dam is Stakes winner and multiple Stakes producer. Has nice dosage for this event (see below). Classic example IMHO of an owner getting a nice young horse and running the wheels off. Not excited about form decline. Pass
May God strike me down if I did not get my boss to call Kenny Mcpeek to buy Repent after his first start. Kenny said the bidding started at 400k. Way out of our league.
The owner breeders
:7: Camilia Casby is one of the better breeders from Minnesota. She has bred some nice horses but this one has come from a mare that has shown affinity for producing sprinters and you have to assume that with those that have been tried on the grass were MN breds againist Mn breds. Has not run since 2 and this one is short on pedigree quality. If my data base has to go back 3 gens and can't find anything then pass.
:3: Miracle Lake Owner bred dam and she did not run well. Has produced 2 winner but this looks like a owner bought the Deputy Commander in Utero after the 2nd dam hit with the Mizzen Mast Horse(12k). Trying to breed best but Friends Lake was poor choice. This one has a shot to run big but turf is not deal. The 2yo grass experiment with speed is better than really is as 3yo is my gut here.
All this nonsense to get to the fact I like the favorite and as pedigree guy I am big fan of Hard Spun because of the Danzig Alydar cross. Horse ran bravely in last even though being defeated and since I advocate for grass extending speed and the fact that this homebred is bred like she see below. Think that Landeros gets it done on one meant for grass.
Winner based on above logic the :1:
Winner based on sale price and return to owner :6:
Just sharing some thought as some will start thinking about 3yo fillies this time of year.
Good Cappin and hope your track is always fast and your turf is firm. :lol: