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View Full Version : Picks for Sat, 2/11


Ray2000
02-11-2012, 12:19 PM
I'm going with the "über-Risky" 10 hole plays tonite.
Windy weather should also be a factor.

One 3 box others Key box Exactas

The BigM R1....10,2,6 .......Berry Berry Fast-20/1 .....adds Lasix..3 box Exacta
The BigM R5....10 w/7,1,6 ...I Wanna Go Fast-5/1....The Presidential was tough, easier here?.
The BigM R9....2 w/1,5,10 ...Picture Me-12/1......#10 needs to leave and find a sneaky spot

Woodbine R3....6 w/8,7,3 ....Lulus Boy-5/1........20k clm may be too high? hold for place.
Woodbine R8....6 w/8,10,2,4 .Rock Me Please-7/1...My best bet so use w/ 4 others
Woodbine R11...2 w/5,1,3 ....Lucky Terror-8/1.....Did a long mile in 1st leg of this WEG Closer

Yonkers R2.....4 w/1,2 ......Putnams Power-8/1
Hopelessly out of contention in last race due to pp7 in times of 58-3 | 55-4
With post relief and Jason this Atlantic Sire Stakes winner could surprise.

Good Luck All

LottaKash
02-11-2012, 05:00 PM
Encore.......Encore !.....:ThmbUp:

Say Ray, looks You and the Boyz were having a good time last nite....I am glad for you...:jump:

In fact, I was smiling thruout the Wdb card last nite, for you....:)

best,

mrroyboy
02-11-2012, 05:29 PM
Well if you hit some of your picks at BigM you will be in good shape!!

mrroyboy
02-11-2012, 07:05 PM
See what I mean? 34-1 plus exacta. Very very nice Ray

Ray2000
02-11-2012, 07:09 PM
Thx guys,

................I'm going to DisneyWorld... :)

melman
02-11-2012, 07:12 PM
Mr Ray, that horse won like he was 4/5. $71 winner and $404.60 ex. The rest of the night is gravy. I think you have made the proper adjustments to the Robot for large track racing. :lol: :lol:

Play any DD's Ray? I'm live with 4-6-5.

Did someone say Encore??

mrroyboy
02-11-2012, 07:13 PM
I guess a driver change from Pat Berry to Ron Pierce is a"key driver switch"

Ray2000
02-11-2012, 07:18 PM
Didn't play the double mel, so I'm rootin' for you...

mrroyboy
02-11-2012, 07:26 PM
Very nice Mel

Ray2000
02-11-2012, 07:27 PM
hey your double beat my exacta.....great....... :D

melman
02-11-2012, 07:32 PM
That DD price was great. Under the $600 mark. :) However it was your 10 in R1 that made that great DD price. My man Dube on a fav no less. :)

R3 like the 3 who likes BigM and gets Pierce. I heard that can help. :) 3 with 1-4-9.

This is one of those times I wish the BigM still had rolling pic3's.

melman
02-11-2012, 07:51 PM
Ray maybe not having rolling pic3's is not so bad after all. ;) Would have gotten beat on the wire by a 50-1 shot. Like 4-1-9-2 in R4 and your picks in R5.

Ray2000
02-11-2012, 08:06 PM
3 box call at Yonkers ..would have been better..catches $46 exacta and $286 trifecta.
4 horse kills Woodbine R3 tkt

Adding...

One more play on the 10 hole at BigM Race 11... 10˘ Superfecta

34610 | 346710 | 346710 | 3456710 144 tkts cost $14.40

Good Night and Good Luck All

melman
02-11-2012, 08:10 PM
Tim T with a great ground saving drive on my 4 at 8-1 nice 4-9 ex price. Your horse at Woodbine had a tough locked in deep in the lane trip Ray. Just had no room to pass with pace.

Ray2000
02-11-2012, 08:14 PM
Nice Mambo....$19.60 good call mel

melman
02-11-2012, 08:45 PM
R7 3 High Wire Kat, ships in from Dover, gets better post, gets Pierce and likes the BigM. Should be good odds. With 5-7-10

melman
02-11-2012, 09:14 PM
Now that was a FAST last half in R7. I think the 3 did very well going 1st up into that pace and getting 4th. One to watch for me next time or two.

melman
02-11-2012, 09:50 PM
Good result at Woodbine R8 Ray. 6 an EZ winner. Just got bet down to 5-2 just cannot control the off odds. :) 6-8 ex good for $25

Ray2000
02-12-2012, 05:41 AM
One of my better nights...

The BigM R1.........1067 Winner $71.00 Exacta $404.60
The BigM R5.........674 no
The BigM R9.........621 no

The BigM R11........57106 no 10˘ super paid $587, giddyup 30 to place

Woodbine R3.........486 no
Woodbine R8.........687 Winner $7.60 Exacta $25.00
Woodbine R11.......258 Winner $7.70 Exacta $39.00

Yonkers R2..........214 no

Bets in $98 return $469 +$371



.

JBmadera
02-12-2012, 07:01 AM
One of my better nights...

The BigM R1.........1067 Winner $71.00 Exacta $404.60
The BigM R5.........674 no
The BigM R9.........621 no

The BigM R11........57106 no 10˘ super paid $587, giddyup 30 to place

Woodbine R3.........486 no
Woodbine R8.........687 Winner $7.60 Exacta $25.00
Woodbine R11.......258 Winner $7.70 Exacta $39.00

Yonkers R2..........214 no

Bets in $98 return $469 +$371



.

WOW, great job Ray. Watched the Big M last night with my wife and she said "how the heck could anyone have that horse in race one??". I'll let her know that you did!

Sea Biscuit
02-12-2012, 08:44 AM
One of my better nights...

The BigM R1.........1067 Winner $71.00 Exacta $404.60
The BigM R5.........674 no
The BigM R9.........621 no

The BigM R11........57106 no 10˘ super paid $587, giddyup 30 to place

Woodbine R3.........486 no
Woodbine R8.........687 Winner $7.60 Exacta $25.00
Woodbine R11.......258 Winner $7.70 Exacta $39.00

Yonkers R2..........214 no

Bets in $98 return $469 +$371



.

Great Picks Ray.

Congrats.

Your robot has a good eye on driver changes.:):ThmbUp:

lamboguy
02-12-2012, 09:00 AM
big time double kudo's to not only the best harness handicapper in cyberland, but also the biggest heart in harness land.

Ray2000
02-12-2012, 09:22 AM
thx guys

Sea Biscuit
You're right, I have the 'bot' programmed for longshots by looking for major driver changes, added or 2nd time Lasix and gate speed, along with some other factors.

JB
All 3 factors applied here, but there was a bit of coincidental Luck

I was updating some Post stats yesterday and noticed that the 10 hole at the BigM was being slightly underbet by ROIs compared to 7-8-9. So when I made out my pick list, I said "What the hell, let's try some 10 hole bets".
That 71$ hit is going to tilt the ROIs even more now. :)

BigM Post ROIs last 2 years.


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
-19% -33% -27% -24% -7% -5% -28% -38% -33% -23%


thx lambo, I appreciate the kind words.

Sea Biscuit
02-12-2012, 09:41 AM
Race 1 Woodbine Feb 11

Last night I bet #4 Midnite Romp in the 1st W/P. He was coming from 2 10 holes post positions in the last 2 races and each time he went for the lead from that post. This time Zeron decided to bring him off the pace and Curator who always comes off the pace was on the lead and got away with a cheap 58 half. In the meantime Zeron brings Midnite Romp first over and was making nice gains on the eventual winner Curator before he jumped as if he saw a rabbit on the track.

Take a look


http://www.youtube.com/user/WEGReplays#p/u/13/MFMt6p_fhFs

am1947
02-12-2012, 09:53 AM
[B][COLOR=DarkGreen]$uper Job Ray !

Thats one way to turn a meet to a + ROI in a hurry.
AM

Ray2000
02-12-2012, 09:54 AM
Sea
I watched that. Looks likes a hurdle in the stretch, not the usual 'tired' type break.
:confused:


and thx am1947

Sea Biscuit
02-12-2012, 10:35 AM
Sea
I watched that. Looks likes a hurdle in the stretch, not the usual 'tired' type break.
:confused:


and thx am1947

Maybe he needs a shadow roll in his next start.:confused:

melman
02-12-2012, 11:02 AM
Ray you mentioned items you have progammed into the bot. Driver change, add on lasix and then you said "some other factors". Would one of them be "3rd start back from a layoff"?? Over the long years I have found that to be a very useful item. Of course you do not just bet it blind but combine it was items such has back class and speed and if in the first two races back they looked like "tune-up" races. Ron Pierce had just about the year of his life last year then took a well deserved vacation. Not back into the full swing yet but I think he will be getting a lot more "live" drives in the near future. I'll be keeping a close eye on his drives for the next month.

Ray most of your posted big hits (and there are many of them) have in the past been on the smaller tracks. Very nice to see that as of late the bot has been very good at the larger tracks also.

Had to kind of chuckle to myself last night at the BigM. Driver Dan Dube, one of my favorite longshot drivers won with three low priced horses. :) You just never know. Also the last 4-5 years or so the off odds have been for me at least just so much harder to figure. Sometimes much lower, sometimes much higher. Your two winners at Woodbine last night were IMO bet below "fair vaue" but then Giddy Up went of at 45-1 so who knows. :)

Sea Biscuit--Post more often please you know your stuff. Same with Lotta Kash and Camfella.

Ray2000
02-12-2012, 11:47 AM
Would one of them be "3rd start back from a layoff"?? .

I like that angle, "3rd start back from a layoff" or 2nd start with a good or double Qualifier but this is a case where the human beats the silicon chip. :) I find it easier to check the robots longshot pick by hand to see if I can excuse the last 2 race lines.

I do this when the bot has a high rating on sorry looking race efforts. Last night's Yonkers Pick, for example, 3rd start after "Triple Qualifier" and 2 sorry efforts. I used the race-time pace to ignore Putnams last race.
Bot liked him on heart, 90% OTB as a colt last year and a LTM 1:55-4 at Summerside PEI a 2:01 track!


.
BTW late note.
Do find this angle disappearing due to trainers not be able to AFFORD racing into shape? Many seem to go for the win as fast as they can.

camfella
02-12-2012, 03:23 PM
One of my better nights...

The BigM R1.........1067 Winner $71.00 Exacta $404.60
The BigM R5.........674 no
The BigM R9.........621 no

The BigM R11........57106 no 10˘ super paid $587, giddyup 30 to place

Woodbine R3.........486 no
Woodbine R8.........687 Winner $7.60 Exacta $25.00
Woodbine R11.......258 Winner $7.70 Exacta $39.00

Yonkers R2..........214 no

Bets in $98 return $469 +$371



.

Excellent!

precisionk
02-12-2012, 03:30 PM
Good job Ray, I am glad to see the Robot still knows how to pickem.

Sea Biscuit
02-12-2012, 03:34 PM
Ray you mentioned items you have progammed into the bot. Driver change, add on lasix and then you said "some other factors". Would one of them be "3rd start back from a layoff"?? Over the long years I have found that to be a very useful item. Of course you do not just bet it blind but combine it was items such has back class and speed and if in the first two races back they looked like "tune-up" races. Ron Pierce had just about the year of his life last year then took a well deserved vacation. Not back into the full swing yet but I think he will be getting a lot more "live" drives in the near future. I'll be keeping a close eye on his drives for the next month.

Ray most of your posted big hits (and there are many of them) have in the past been on the smaller tracks. Very nice to see that as of late the bot has been very good at the larger tracks also.

Had to kind of chuckle to myself last night at the BigM. Driver Dan Dube, one of my favorite longshot drivers won with three low priced horses. :) You just never know. Also the last 4-5 years or so the off odds have been for me at least just so much harder to figure. Sometimes much lower, sometimes much higher. Your two winners at Woodbine last night were IMO bet below "fair vaue" but then Giddy Up went of at 45-1 so who knows. :)

Sea Biscuit--Post more often please you know your stuff. Same with Lotta Kash and Camfella.

Mel Thats a good angle Third or 2nd time off the layoff.

I don't know about other tracks but another very strong angle play at Woodbine is the stretch gains in the last 8th of a mile. If the horse gained 5 plus lengths and is showing one or two parked out symbols and also if the last race quarter went faster than the 3rd quarter, this angle is even more stronger. Two recent examples:

Feb 11 Race 12

#5 B Lo Zero gained 6 1/4 lengths in his last start where the last qtr was a tick faster than the 3rd qtr and won and paid $7.20.

Feb 10 Race 13

#3 Play At Wynn Gained some incredible 7 1/2 lengths in the stretch and was his third start (On Feb 10) after the layoff. He came off the pace and won for fun by over 5 lengths. He was 5-1 ML but paid only $4.50. He was my single in the last leg in the last p-3, p-4 and the late double.

And Ray thanks for info which you sent me via PM.