Black Caviar Tonight

[turninforhome10]

Black Caviar became the highest ever Internationally rated mare in the world, and named the world's best sprinter, and with her decisive victory in the Australia Stakes she moved to 17 straight wins.

Black Caviar's next race is set to take place in the C F Orr Stakes this Friday Night (2/10) at Caulfield and with a victory the world's highest ranked sprinter would move to eighteen straight wins from the start of her career. An accomplishment that would place her one shy of the modern era world record held by legendary Zenyatta, and tie the consecutive victory streak achieved by Australian Racing Hall of Fame thoroughbred Ajax. From Twin spires
Post is Caulfield 6th at 11:50 pm est.
Can't wait to watch the crowds enjoy this true wonder of speed.

[turninforhome10]

Her is the site I adore for Australian racing. Using the odds comparison allow to watch totes in real. Their PPs are great and there is even a mini handicaaping feature allowing you set preferences and let the computer do the work. Enjoy
http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/

[FrankieFigs]

Cool site. I will have to play around with that some more when I have time. Thanks!

[toussaud]

honestly... that race didn't look right. at least to me it didn't. i mean she won, but her cruising speed wasn't as high as it usually was. either that or they were going much faster which it didn't look like. she is usually right off the lead.

with that said sure she's not 100% cranked up especially if she's prepping for dubai. not even saying i would bet against her, just saying i've seen her look much better.

[cj]

We must have watched different races.

[toussaud]

i've just seen about. what.. at least 12 of her 18 races. I've seen her look much better than she looked today. in fact i would say this is probably the worst i have personally seen her look, which i mean is still unreal but still. just saying not her best day. she usually is closer to the past with a higher cruising speed and she usually has the lead much earlier than she had today. Her running style is pretty identical to Rachel's actually, she can take the lead or sit directly off the pace. she usually isn't that far back.

again i'm not saying she' sucks or antyhing just i've seen much better out of her. probably just saving it for dubai

[Fager Fan]

How can one possibly judge a horse and race when the entire field was at 99-1 odds except for her? Was she the only Thoroughbred in a field of Arabians or something?

[cj]

again i'm not saying she' sucks or antyhing just i've seen much better out of her. probably just saving it for dubai

It was a workout. She was under a hammerlock the entire trip.

[OntheRail]

It was a workout. She was under a hammerlock the entire trip.

Yep... they are talking about running her next weekend. Still a good performance over a "DEAD" turf coarse from another High Class mare.

[Seabiscuit@AR]

Unfortunately Black Caviar's races are not real races anymore. Most of the opposing jockeys and trainers are not even trying to beat her. The horse that ran 2nd today Southern Speed is a good horse but it seemed they were happy to just run for 2nd today

[FenceBored]

Qle5T2qXZZc

[turninforhome10]

Unfortunately Black Caviar's races are not real races anymore. Most of the opposing jockeys and trainers are not even trying to beat her. The horse that ran 2nd today Southern Speed is a good horse but it seemed they were happy to just run for 2nd today

So you don't think it would be feather in someones cap to beat her?

[FrankieFigs]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but was this BC's first race @ 7 furlongs? I thought I heard that somewhere along the line.

I was impressed with her performance. Would love to see her and Frankel match up at this distance.

[cj]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but was this BC's first race @ 7 furlongs? I thought I heard that somewhere along the line.

I was impressed with her performance. Would love to see her and Frankel match up at this distance.

Yes, think it was her longest race yet.

[Vengeance of Rain]

i've just seen about. what.. at least 12 of her 18 races. I've seen her look much better than she looked today.
I've watched her for her entire career as well and it's funny because if you say something like the above people tend to turn it around.

I know exactly what you mean.

She is breathtaking but this field was her toughest opposition yet or at least since the TJ Smith Stakes last year.

A Melbourne Cup winner, a Caulfield Cup winner, how many other G1 winners in thie field?

She is extraordinary in every way but I've seen her look better too and that says so much about her to beat this field (last out was a pretty nothing group) and at a new distance. People need to understand it's only an observation and not a negative comment!

[classhandicapper]

The track was supposedly "dead". It's possible everyone was on a hammerlock early partly because of the track.

I'm not sure what more you can ask for. It was a public workout. She was never asked to run. IMO the only way to evaluate her is to look at what she's done against the best possible competition and assume she's either still capable of that form or not.

To me, she's clearly better than what she has shown to date. I'm not certain what that means because I don't know Australian racing well, but this horse has not reached the bottom of the tank yet.

[Steve R]

For several years I have been trying to correlate BSFs with RPRs and after several hundred races the correlation coefficient is a very solid 0.84 so I'm confident in the conversion. That said, this was Black Caviar's 12th consecutive race with an equivalent BSF between 107 and 114.

[Cardus]

Yes, it was Black Caviar's first attempt at seven furlongs (1400 meters).

Also, you guys know that the Aussie turf rating "Dead" equals "Good" in America, right?

[ArlJim78]

I don't know how a horse could look any better than that. with a modicum of effort on par with a workout she absolutely crushed the field.

[broadreach]

The time was very slow but she has incredible acceleration. The supposed plan is to get her 20th consecutive win by the end of March in Australia to surpass Zenyatta's 19.

[Vengeance of Rain]

The time was very slow but she has incredible acceleration. The supposed plan is to get her 20th consecutive win by the end of March in Australia to surpass Zenyatta's 19.
Silent Witness led her out and one of the reasons for this was it was clear she would surpass his magnificent record. That is the only record I've ever heard spoken of in terms of her breaking.
As an aside the Lightning Stakes decision is due to come on Wednesday.

[Vengeance of Rain]

Yes, it was Black Caviar's first attempt at seven furlongs (1400 meters).

Also, you guys know that the Aussie turf rating "Dead" equals "Good" in America, right?
I don't know how I missed this last time around. Was the track Dead 4 or 5 or maybe not at all?

In Racing Post today.
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/peter-g-moody-black-caviar-trip-posers-left-unanswered-in-orr-february-13/987282/worldclass/

[toussaud]

if she does go to dubai this makes things more interesting from the wagering perspective.

[Seabiscuit@AR]

These comments come from Craig Williams the jockey of the 2nd fave Southern Speed last Saturday. He said this before the race. Of course he goes on to say he would be trying to beat Black Caviar. But these comments do give away what I think was the true mindset of Williams and the jockeys of the other horses. Instead of having a real horse race to find the fastest horse they are too busy worrying about putting on a show to entertain the masses

http://m.smh.com.au/sport/horseracing/caulfield-readies-for-free-black-caviar-20120209-1ro8q.html

"We want people to turn up at the racecourse and one thing that is bringing people to the racecourse now is Black Caviar, so we’ve got to make the most of it," Williams said.

He admits that beating Black Caviar would be like ‘killing Bambi'.

[Vengeance of Rain]

I don't think it's about putting on a show at all.
Southern Speed won the Caulfield Cup for God sake!
Besides being a very good jockey and one with a brain I think Mr. Williams is only commenting on the reality of his situation.
She's beaten some terrific horses and the connections know they're running for place.
Putting on a show? I don't think the a Melbourne Cup winner, a Caulfield Cup winner and other Group 1 winners can or should be equated to being extras.
I applaud their connections. She's an easy one to want to run away and hide from.

[Fager Fan]

I don't think it's about putting on a show at all.
Southern Speed won the Caulfield Cup for God sake!Besides being a very good jockey and one with a brain I think Mr. Williams is only commenting on the reality of his situation.
She's beaten some terrific horses and the connections know they're running for place.
Putting on a show? I don't think the a Melbourne Cup winner, a Caulfield Cup winner and other Group 1 winners can or should be equated to being extras.
I applaud their connections. She's an easy one to want to run away and hide from.

Isn't the Caulfield Cup at 12 furlongs? So what's a horse who's best at 1 1/2 miles doing running in a sprint?

[foregoforever]

Isn't the Caulfield Cup at 12 furlongs? So what's a horse who's best at 1 1/2 miles doing running in a sprint?

I'll try not to be too long-winded, but you ask a very good question.

All the Aussie horses who run the longer races start their "preparations" at shorter distances, usually 1400m/7f, and work their way up. The Aussie racing season in Melbourne and Sydney is really in two halves - one starting in August and leading to their Melbourne Spring Carnival in late October and early November - and the second starting in late January and leading up to their Fall Carnival in Sydney in April. In between, most all the horses take a break.

So it's typical for these longer-distance horses to run in the CF Orr Stakes, which is early in their fall season, and often these types win it. There's usually not a really top-class sprinter in it, though.

About half of them were running first-up after their break. So the question is, how hard were these horses trying to win the race? With an Aus $400K purse, it's nothing to sneeze at. And perhaps some of the connections weren't too interested in breaking Black Caviar's streak.

But I'm pretty certain that none of them wanted to try to run down BC once she kicked clear and showed that she was on her game.

[Some_One]

Isn't the Caulfield Cup at 12 furlongs? So what's a horse who's best at 1 1/2 miles doing running in a sprint?

Makybe Diva won a G2 7f stake at Caufield, in Australia, you'll see a lot of the distance horses coming back from a layoff in 7-8f G1's as a prep on the road to the Australian Cup.

[Seabiscuit@AR]

Southern Speed has good career form over 1400m to 1600m and won well in a sprint race before this latest race

[cj]

I'll try not to be too long-winded, but you ask a very good question.

All the Aussie horses who run the longer races start their "preparations" at shorter distances, usually 1400m/7f, and work their way up. The Aussie racing season in Melbourne and Sydney is really in two halves - one starting in August and leading to their Melbourne Spring Carnival in late October and early November - and the second starting in late January and leading up to their Fall Carnival in Sydney in April. In between, most all the horses take a break.

So it's typical for these longer-distance horses to run in the CF Orr Stakes, which is early in their fall season, and often these types win it. There's usually not a really top-class sprinter in it, though.

About half of them were running first-up after their break. So the question is, how hard were these horses trying to win the race? With an Aus $400K purse, it's nothing to sneeze at. And perhaps some of the connections weren't too interested in breaking Black Caviar's streak.

But I'm pretty certain that none of them wanted to try to run down BC once she kicked clear and showed that she was on her game.

It used to be done this way in the US as well. Plenty of our champion horses started campaigns sprinting. It was a time when our horses didn't break down from racing more than once every two months and trainers weren't concerned with a gaudy win percentage as much as they are now.

[Seabiscuit@AR]

Black Caviar has ended up a surprise acceptor for the 5 furlong Lightning Stakes this Saturday. A final decision on whether she runs won't be made till Saturday but I think she will run. She will likely end up running 3 Saturdays in a row going 7f, 5f, 7f

Hay List is resuming from injury and illness in this race but they seem to be a bit reluctant to face Black Caviar first up and are saying they might not run in this race now if BC does

http://www.racenet.com.au/news/774/77457.asp

[davew]

rooting for Black Caviar, but gotta put a couple bucks on Hay List and Foxwedge

[holmmd]

19 straight. Had to work a little but did what she needed to do.

[Striker]

Luke had to go to the stick tonight. She is simply awesome.

[Seabiscuit@AR]

Was a proper race today with Hay List back. This field was much stronger than what she has faced in the last few months and was full of depth. Good to see proper racing back with Black Caviar

[broadreach]

7 furlongs to 5 furlongs in a week didn't worry her...an outstanding win, she dug deep when challenged..scintillating time for the track (55.53)
no decision when/where her 20th will be

[Some_One]

All out to beat Hay List, going to get smoked when up against the fields in Dubai or Royal Ascot.

[Seabiscuit@AR]

Hay List would be 18 from 21 if Black Caviar was not around. He is a top class horse in his own right. I doubt Rocket Man has ever faced a horse as good as Hay List

[Seabiscuit@AR]

Black Caviar ran 55.53 for the 1000m with a Last 600 in 31.82. This put her 0.03s outside the track record which has stood since 1988. The track looks to have been playing only slightly faster than average for the other 2 straight races. So the performance was full of quality again and today's field was good, this was not an exhibition race like her last couple

[FenceBored]

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[gm10]

Black Caviar ran 55.53 for the 1000m with a Last 600 in 31.82. This put her 0.03s outside the track record which has stood since 1988. The track looks to have been playing only slightly faster than average for the other 2 straight races. So the performance was full of quality again and today's field was good, this was not an exhibition race like her last couple

It all looks great on numbers, but I haven't been convinced by her body language in the last two races. I suppose they'll want 20 wins in Australia before sending her off on an international tour, so maybe she's not quite 100% at the moment and they are leaving something in the tank for the rest of the year.

[Seabiscuit@AR]

It is quite possible that Black Caviar has lost 1 length on this time last year and she is just going into decline. She is now midway through her 5 year old season on Southern hemisphere time. For most horses in Australia once they hit 6yo they go into decline so Black Caviar is entering that dangerous age bracket. She had two injury setbacks early in her career which is why she has not had more starts by this. She will probably only go backwards from here and her best is already behind her

This is where Australian racing varies from UK racing. In UK racing a top horse is retired after very few starts so there is no chance of them ever going through any ageing period. Most top UK horses won't make it to 19 starts let alone have 19 wins. If you look at a leading Australian horse like Kingston Town (late 1970s-early 1980s) he was simply devastating as a young horse in his prime. By the time he was 6yo he was still winning top races but had suffered injuries and was not as dynamic as he was when younger. He had 41 starts and 30 wins

I doubt Peter Moody is keeping anything in the tank. If Black Caviar runs her best races in front of Australian audiences before she goes overseas I don't think he will mind. The Dubai carnival has been around for only a couple of years and nobody in Australia really cares about it. I doubt she even goes there

The thing is Black Caviar's peak performance last season in the Newmarket was extremely high and her performances right now are still very good despite what some may say. But yes she has probably lost a little something and will lose more

[Cardus]

Hay List would be 18 from 21 if Black Caviar was not around. He is a top class horse in his own right. I doubt Rocket Man has ever faced a horse as good as Hay List

Agreed.

It was noteworthy that both Moody and Nolen commented on her having a tougher race than usual.

I suppose that she will not race next week, but stranger things have happened, right?

[Cardus]

It is quite possible that Black Caviar has lost 1 length on this time last year and she is just going into decline. She is now midway through her 5 year old season on Southern hemisphere time. For most horses in Australia once they hit 6yo they go into decline so Black Caviar is entering that dangerous age bracket. She had two injury setbacks early in her career which is why she has not had more starts by this. She will probably only go backwards from here and her best is already behind her

This is where Australian racing varies from UK racing. In UK racing a top horse is retired after very few starts so there is no chance of them ever going through any ageing period. Most top UK horses won't make it to 19 starts let alone have 19 wins. If you look at a leading Australian horse like Kingston Town (late 1970s-early 1980s) he was simply devastating as a young horse in his prime. By the time he was 6yo he was still winning top races but had suffered injuries and was not as dynamic as he was when younger. He had 41 starts and 30 wins

I doubt Peter Moody is keeping anything in the tank. If Black Caviar runs her best races in front of Australian audiences before she goes overseas I don't think he will mind. The Dubai carnival has been around for only a couple of years and nobody in Australia really cares about it. I doubt she even goes there

The thing is Black Caviar's peak performance last season in the Newmarket was extremely high and her performances right now are still very good despite what some may say. But yes she has probably lost a little something and will lose more

That is an excellent example for your assertion that UK and Aussie racing are different at the top level.

[Tom]

It all looks great on numbers, but I haven't been convinced by her body language in the last two races. I suppose they'll want 20 wins in Australia before sending her off on an international tour, so maybe she's not quite 100% at the moment and they are leaving something in the tank for the rest of the year.

I did hear that they definitely plan on #20 at home.

[Vengeance of Rain]

Hay List would be 18 from 21 if Black Caviar was not around. He is a top class horse in his own right. I doubt Rocket Man has ever faced a horse as good as Hay List
I know what you mean about Hay List but as far as your comment about Rocket Man? I think that could be debated.

An example is the 2009 KrisFlyer... he lost to Sacred Kingdom. Takeover Target and Mythical Flight were in the field as well. He's faced Sacred Kingdom, Green Birdie, Lucky Nine and other multiple G1 HK runners how many times?

With respect to Hay List I'd disagree.

[turninforhome10]

Perfection. Powerful. Elegant. Warrior maiden. All words to describe the Wonder from Down Under. Extending her streak to 19 and looking to convince the world that she is truly one of the greatest ever, her momentum rolls on.
Having a chance to take a look at the pedigree of the mare known as Black Caviar one is first drawn to the perfect inbreeding of VAIN (http://www.pedigreequery.com/vain2) one of AUS greatest sires.
See below for Pedigree reports on Black Caviar and please comment as any input is good for discussion.
Without getting too crazy on the analysis, I am drawn to the inbreeding of VAIN and SILLY SEASON. I am going to update later as to the success of this cross for credibility sake ( the presence in trees report is below). Look at the relationship of BEL ESPIRIT's dam BESPOKEN and SCANDINAVIA second dam of BLACK CAVIAR. Perfect x-trail inbreeding. Interesting.

[turninforhome10]

Here also is the Key names report for Black Caviar. It is a cool little report that allows for a closer look at the success of the ancestors.

[Steve R]

Racing Post Rating of 130, her seventh time earning a figure that high. Roughly equivalent to a BSF of 111.

[cj]

Trying to remember a turf sprint getting a 110 Beyer. Elusive Quality at 7f maybe, but 5f I'm coming up empty.

[Cardus]

Trying to remember a turf sprint getting a 110 Beyer. Elusive Quality at 7f maybe, but 5f I'm coming up empty.

The Aussie horse who set the Belmont Park 6F turf record two years ago (?) got a 106. Maybe there have been a bunch of 108s, but that is as high as I remember seeing.

[PhantomOnTour]

What was the best number Show Me The Stage ever ran?

[Cardus]

Trying to remember a turf sprint getting a 110 Beyer. Elusive Quality at 7f maybe, but 5f I'm coming up empty.

At 5F, wouldn't Chamberlain Bridge have some pretty high numbers (but not a 110)?

[Buchan]

All out to beat Hay List, going to get smoked when up against the fields in Dubai or Royal Ascot.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

she may get smoked, but it will be for reasons other than her ability.

[davew]

Force Freeze had a smoker at Gulfstream today at 7F

Yesterday had to take quite a bit out of Black Caviar, and quite a crowd drawer locally in Australia, why would you risk international travel?

[Fager Fan]

How many G1 turf sprints are there? I'd think that may have something to do with the lack of high beyers in that division - we don't even have that division.

[Seabiscuit@AR]

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/superracing/why-peter-moody-wont-race-black-caviar-in-melbourne/story-fn67siys-1226277613341

Black Caviar not going to Dubai. But I don't think they ever planned seriously to go to Dubai. They just put in an entry there and people read too much into it

She is going for a spell, will have 1 or 2 races in Australia then go to Royal Ascot