CONTESTED PACE

[teddy]

I SEE RACES WHERE THERE ARE 4 HORSES THAT ARE VERY CLOSE IN THE FIRST FRACTION. NO NECESSARILY SPEED HORSES, BUT LEADS TO A CONTESTED PACE. THE DEEP CLOSER THAT HAS A COMPETITIVE FIGURE SEEMS TO BE AT AN ADVANTAGE. ANYONE ELSE LOOK AT THIS ANGLE THAT THE PUBLIC CANT SEEM TO FIND.

[lamboguy]

it would make sense, but make sure that those 4 horses all came out of all the same distance in their last few races.

[JBmadera]

Sure, but I am always reminded that everything generally needs to go "right" for a deep closer to get up.

Also, I will look at see if there is a speed bias, and if so even if there looks like a major speed dual I won't play a deep closer. Most likely I'd pass said race.

[teddy]

OP RACE 9 AND DED RACE 9 HAD THE BEST CLOSER HITTING THE BOARD AND I HAD THEM AS CONTENTIOUS ON FIRST FRACTION. . NICE PRICES FOR SHOW IMO

[rubicon55]

it would make sense, but make sure that those 4 horses all came out of all the same distance in their last few races.

Agreed, I would also throw in the class/purse of the last race also. IMO I would think the better class horse would have better stamina than weaker classes and should theoretically prevail while they are nearing the top of the stretch where the real racing begins.

[Robert Fischer]

OP RACE 9 AND DED RACE 9 HAD THE BEST CLOSER HITTING THE BOARD AND I HAD THEM AS CONTENTIOUS ON FIRST FRACTION. . NICE PRICES FOR SHOW IMO

good stuff

[Robert Goren]

OP RACE 9 AND DED RACE 9 HAD THE BEST CLOSER HITTING THE BOARD AND I HAD THEM AS CONTENTIOUS ON FIRST FRACTION. . NICE PRICES FOR SHOW IMOThat where closers generally run, third, even under ideal conditions. Under less than ideal conditions they get to the middle of the pack. If you can make money betting closers to show, more power to you.

[teddy]

CLOSERS ARE VERY TOUGH ON WIN, NOT AS BAD ON SHOW BUT YOUR CLOSERS GET HAMMERED IN SHOW. THE IDEA IS THAT IN SOME INSTANCES THERE ARE UNDETECTABLE CONTENTIOUS SPEED SITUATIONS THAT THE PUBLIC DOES NOT SEE COMING.. IE 4 PRESSERS MOVING WAY TO EARLY. OR FORCED WIDE. JUST A THOUGHT! HAVING A GOOD SECOND FRACTION AND A GOOD CLOSE MAY BE HELP. STILL YOU ARE GOING WIDE AROUND THE 4 HORSES.. CHECK THIS FOR SMALLER FIELDS UNDER 10..

[raybo]

IMO, you have to include running styles in the mix. Just because several horses can run the same fraction, early, some will not , but lay off the lead.

[lamboguy]

Agreed, I would also throw in the class/purse of the last race also. IMO I would think the better class horse would have better stamina than weaker classes and should theoretically prevail while they are nearing the top of the stretch where the real racing begins.that i am sure is coming from a guy that plays the northwest racing circuit, EMERALD DOWNS, PORTLAND MEADOW'S, NORTHLAND'S, ASSINOBOIA, HASTINGS.. those places class means more than anything.

i love that circuit, every single one of those tracks.

[rubicon55]

that i am sure is coming from a guy that plays the northwest racing circuit, EMERALD DOWNS, PORTLAND MEADOW'S, NORTHLAND'S, ASSINOBOIA, HASTINGS.. those places class means more than anything.

i love that circuit, every single one of those tracks.

LOL thats funny, I don't play those circuits. I like Emerald Downs but won't play due to the high takeout. Right now I really like GP, TAM, CT, DED, FG and HOU. California and Aqueduct has been spanking me badly lately so I am laying off a bit on those. Maybe see you posting later on the selections page?

[thaskalos]

I SEE RACES WHERE THERE ARE 4 HORSES THAT ARE VERY CLOSE IN THE FIRST FRACTION. NO NECESSARILY SPEED HORSES, BUT LEADS TO A CONTESTED PACE. THE DEEP CLOSER THAT HAS A COMPETITIVE FIGURE SEEMS TO BE AT AN ADVANTAGE. ANYONE ELSE LOOK AT THIS ANGLE THAT THE PUBLIC CANT SEEM TO FIND.
I have paid close attention to this scenaro...and the expected, very contested "speed duel" seldom materializes.

What usually happens is that a couple of the "speed" horses will drop off the pace...and make their moves during the race's middle stage.

IMO...it's a mistake to assume that these front-runners are "married" to their preferred running style. They can often run just as well from off the pace...if they are given a competent ride.

[lamboguy]

LOL thats funny, I don't play those circuits. I like Emerald Downs but won't play due to the high takeout. Right now I really like GP, TAM, CT, DED, FG and HOU. California and Aqueduct has been spanking me badly lately so I am laying off a bit on those. Maybe see you posting later on the selections page?
i don't have anything good to post today, i am kinda dead until the 2 year olds start running in the spring. i am a sub par handicapper when it comes down to older horses or horses that i have to make guess's about, i am like most, i guess wrong.

[pondman]

ANYONE ELSE LOOK AT THIS ANGLE THAT THE PUBLIC CANT SEEM TO FIND.

I'm usally in the hunt for a classier horse owned by a high dollar barn, which can toy with the field. I'd generalize by saying, when my bets win, they usually are trying something new and run down the contenders late. However, your not going to see this in the PPs as a running style. If I could find it by calculating pace data I would, because I think the odds are higher on non-front runners because of the heavy play of front running speed type handicappers.

I would consider pace handicapping, but still think class is a better way.

[teddy]

I havent looked at class alone other than to include it in my chalky plays, such as class = 1. or my play is successful at this level.

[teddy]

I SEE THE 9 AS THE CLASS AND CLOSER.. ONLY ISSUE IS THE 5.5 FURLONGS.. SHOW BET FOR ME. LETS WATCH.

[teddy]

2.80... THE ONLY OTHER HORSE I PLAYED WAS THE EXACTA 249 BOX.. NIPPED FOR A NICE ONE. THE CLOSERS CAME FLYING...