Donn Handicap

[andtheyreoff]

Surprised this hasn't gotten a thread yet.

A very good field including Flat Out, Ruler on Ice, Shackleford, and a few other good ones. Thoughts?

:1: Where's Sterling
:2: Mission Impazible
:3: Ruler on Ice
:4: Redeemed
:5: Soaring Empire
:6: Al Khali
:7: Flat Out
:8: Trickmeister
:9: Shackleford
:10: Hymn Book
:11: Sangaree

[tbwinner]

Awesome race. Doubt anyone will be under 4-1.

Can't say I have a stance and don't think I'll be betting this race. VERY competitive.

[OTM Al]

Al Kahli is a likely scratch as he is cross entered in the next race. Card looks great. Hope it doesn't rain as that could really spoil a nice day of racing

[toussaud]

soaring empire

[KirisClown]

Looks surprisingly good.. the deepest Donn field assembled in quite a while..

[CincyHorseplayer]

Are there any pre past performances out there yet?I was looking forward to this card,glad to hear those of you who have seen it are lovin it.

[CincyHorseplayer]

50% chance of rain on Sat and 40% for the next 2 days.Hopefully it's intermittent.

[Robert Fischer]

Are there any pre past performances out there yet?I was looking forward to this card,glad to hear those of you who have seen it are lovin it.

http://www.gulfstreampark.com/sites/www.gulfstreampark.com/files/DonnHdcpPPs.pdf

[CincyHorseplayer]

http://www.gulfstreampark.com/sites/www.gulfstreampark.com/files/DonnHdcpPPs.pdf

Thanks bud!

[FrankieFigs]

Good card they have on Donn Day. Hope the rain stays away.....

[elysiantraveller]

Great race.

Leaning towards Jackson Bend cleaning up after Shackleford does all the dirty work.

[toussaud]

is sanagree still trained by baffert?

[Beachbabe]

is sanagree still trained by baffert?


Kiaran McLaughlin

[toussaud]

meh

[Blenheim]

Nice group of horses in this one and an equally nice mix of trainers.
~
Wonder what the trainer of the :8: horse has in mind with this swifty considering he also trains the :4: horse. :rolleyes: :cool: It will be interesting to see if a Virginian fits in with these Kentuckians and Floridians. Lookin' forward to seein' the odds on the :4: horse.

[Robert Fischer]

Flat Out is a major contender to handicap.
He was the legit favorite in the classic, went against the grain in the Clark to place 3rd and now we have to evaluate the Turf experiment.
I haven't done the intensive work yet on those two races, but Flat Out is a horse that must be solved.

Mission Impazzible should take some of Flat Out's money, and is a natural form reference to have an opinion on either way.

Shackleford is a dandy. Have to like him a lot, and have to have an opinion here.

Shack shares the pace with the IEAH horse in here. 2nd off the 16mnth layoff.

[iceknight]

Great race.

Leaning towards Jackson Bend cleaning up after Shackleford does all the dirty work.
Jackson Bend is not in the final entries

Final Entries GP 10 on Feb 11 (http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/GP021112USA-EQB.html#RACE10)

Ruler on Ice is a powerful closer to keep an eye on.

[Valuist]

I thought Flat Out was an easy throw out in both the Clark and BC Classic. He just doesn't like that track. But it will help his price for this weekend.

[papillon]

Surprised this hasn't gotten a thread yet.

A very good field including Flat Out, Ruler on Ice, Shackleford, and a few other good ones. Thoughts?

:1: Where's Sterling
:2: Mission Impazible
:3: Ruler on Ice
:4: Redeemed
:5: Soaring Empire
:6: Al Khali
:7: Flat Out
:8: Trickmeister
:9: Shackleford
:10: Hymn Book
:11: Sangaree

:9: :2: :3: :5:

[nijinski]

Nice group of horses in this one and an equally nice mix of trainers.
~
Wonder what the trainer of the :8: horse has in mind with this swifty considering he also trains the :4: horse. :rolleyes: :cool: It will be interesting to see if a Virginian fits in with these Kentuckians and Floridians. Lookin' forward to seein' the odds on the :4: horse.

Good thing Secretariat didn't know where he came from ;) .

[classhandicapper]

If Hymn Book didn't draw so far outside I'd be interested.

I'm a huge Flat Out fan because I played him the Suburban, but if he's a short price I think you have to try to beat him (he probably won't be that short). You can find some excuses for his last few races, but he had a pretty tough campaign last year. IMO it's just as likely he's simply over the top. I think you need a little premium in the price to compensate for that possibility.

[olddaddy]

If the :6: goes in the 10Th rather than the 11Th, Ill pound it.

[Blenheim]

Originally Posted by Blenheim
Nice group of horses in this one and an equally nice mix of trainers.
~
Wonder what the trainer of the :8: horse has in mind with this swifty considering he also trains the :4: horse. :rolleyes: :cool:. It will be interesting to see if a Virginian fits in with these Kentuckians and Floridians. Lookin' forward to seein' the odds on the :4: horse.

Good thing Secretariat didn't know where he came from ;) .
Nice. :ThmbUp:
Should be a good one!

[toussaud]

If Hymn Book didn't draw so far outside I'd be interested.

I'm a huge Flat Out fan because I played him the Suburban, but if he's a short price I think you have to try to beat him (he probably won't be that short). You can find some excuses for his last few races, but he had a pretty tough campaign last year. IMO it's just as likely he's simply over the top. I think you need a little premium in the price to compensate for that possibility.
i was looking at hymm book. he is a play on this particular track IMHO.

[PhantomOnTour]

:1: Where's Sterling is the kinda horse who's always there or thereabouts.
Really hasn't done much wrong in his short career; earned his shot vs these imo.
Now, he's only had one work since his last race on 23Dec which is a concern for me, but he loves GP and should get a decent pace to run at. Displays a nice late kick and finish no matter the pace. Competitive figs...12-1 ML...nice connections...why not???

Only Flat Out, Sangaree and Soaring Empire have any recency so this race is a bit of a guessing game for me. Need a generous price on my pick before wagering.

[OTM Al]

The race is at 1 1/8 miles with a very short run into the turn. Beware of anyone outside the 6 hole unless you feel he is head and shoulders above those 6 and inward.

[Beachbabe]

I can tell you, the track will be off. It rained heavy today; more rain tomorrow morning and no sun or wind to dry it out the rest of the day.

[olddaddy]

I can tell you, the track will be off. It rained heavy today; more rain tomorrow morning and no sun or wind to dry it out the rest of the day.


I wonder if the track will be sealed and if there is a chance the 2 grass stakes would be taken off.

[Beachbabe]

I wonder if the track will be sealed and if there is a chance the 2 grass stakes would be taken off.

I'm pretty sure the track will be sealed. The two early turf races will almost definitely be off; as far as the two turf stakes, I'd say it'll probably depend on if and how much more rain they get tomorrow.

[elysiantraveller]

I'll be using the :9: and the :2: assuming the off-track.

[theguarantee]

:1: Where's Sterling is the kinda horse who's always there or thereabouts.
Really hasn't done much wrong in his short career; earned his shot vs these imo.
Now, he's only had one work since his last race on 23Dec which is a concern for me, but he loves GP and should get a decent pace to run at. Displays a nice late kick and finish no matter the pace. Competitive figs...12-1 ML...nice connections...why not???

Only Flat Out, Sangaree and Soaring Empire have any recency so this race is a bit of a guessing game for me. Need a generous price on my pick before wagering.

I had the same thought until I watched the replays. After that I can't see it...

Shackleford seems the one to beat, but at the expected odds, with the other speeds, for the :9: slot I'll be looking elsewhere...

Hymn Book and Sangaree have done nothing wrong in my eyes. But the 10 and 11 posts will make things tricky.

Why not Redeemed? Dutrow is en fuego. Comes off a win at the distance, albeit against a much weaker field, but did it with great ease...not sure I'm convinced but the value seems there...

[Jasonm921]

Hymn Book is a bonafide Grade 1 dirt horse...I'm all in on him.

[CincyHorseplayer]

This race looks pretty wide open.Trick could run off but I doubt it.Shackleford will cuff him.It's hard what to say Flatout will do but if he fires his best shot etc.Drosselmeyer could pick up the pieces etc.I think those two won't give much in odds.I want something of value in this race and I'm going with Where's Sterling.Don't like the rail trip,nor the near constant layoffs,nor the single work, but this light raced guy has some late kick and could be coming into his own.I looked hard at soaring Empire and Sangaree and might make a minor win bet on either at high odds.But I think I'll bet to win on #1 and take him over and under with Dross and Shack,and to a lesser extent with a few others.

[precocity]

wonder if TRICKMEISTER is ready to step up to the plate? think ruler on ice will be flying late, got to see how the track is playing first. nice interesting race.

[turninforhome10]

I know he has only run against 3yo but Redeemed has done nothing wrong. His work pattern is outstanding, get Prado back who won with him in the Discovery in a hand ride. Granted he beat lesser but he is a young horse with tremendous upside. Very stout pedigree with excellent inbreeding of very strong females. and goes back to Blue Larkspur. Tough spot for first out as 4yo but if he progresses he is going to be one to watch this year

[Blenheim]

I know he has only run against 3yo but Redeemed has done nothing wrong. His work pattern is outstanding, get Prado back who won with him in the Discovery in a hand ride. Granted he beat lesser but he is a young horse with tremendous upside. Very stout pedigree with excellent inbreeding of very strong females. and goes back to Blue Larkspur. Tough spot for first out as 4yo but if he progresses he is going to be one to watch this year

turninforhome,

Nice handicapping analysis and I couldn't agree more.
~
A might fine right piece of work with that Tesio power - done real well. Looks like it can also be used as a handicapping tool. I like the :4: horse here and as you've written, done nothing wrong, outstanding works, gets his jock and won his last in a hand ride. Ambitious move to go against these G1 battlehardened kind, but he has got some fresh legs and has gotta be dead fit. Lookin' forward to seein' what he has got for em'.

[PhantomOnTour]

This race looks pretty wide open.Trick could run off but I doubt it.Shackleford will cuff him.It's hard what to say Flatout will do but if he fires his best shot etc.Drosselmeyer could pick up the pieces etc.I think those two won't give much in odds.I want something of value in this race and I'm going with Where's Sterling.Don't like the rail trip,nor the near constant layoffs,nor the single work, but this light raced guy has some late kick and could be coming into his own.I looked hard at soaring Empire and Sangaree and might make a minor win bet on either at high odds.But I think I'll bet to win on #1 and take him over and under with Dross and Shack,and to a lesser extent with a few others.
Drosselmeyer ???

[FenceBored]

Drosselmeyer ???

Drosselmeyer = Belmont winner who didn't win again at 3 = Ruler on Ice.

[atonymania]

Like Trickmeister or I am going to press the ALL button.

[HoofedInTheChest]

My selections for the tenth at Gulfstream. It is a wide open race and i have a uneasy feeling about the outcome, if Ruler On Ice can run his race he will be in the money but i don't see it happening. There are two horses that worry me, Mission Impazible and Sangaree, after all is said and done i am going with these.....

1st - :10: Hymn Book
2nd - :4: Redeemed
3rd - :9: Shackleford
4th - :8: Trickmeister

[Valuist]

i was looking at hymm book. he is a play on this particular track IMHO.

Why do say that? He's never run over the track.

[Vengeance of Rain]

3/5/2

[MNslappy]

#10

3 for 4 on an off track and if you look at his last 4 on the dirt, he won two on off tracks, the other two he finished second to To Honor and Serve and Flat Out, both good horses. BRIS has him best speed last out.

Will also use the 2,3,4 on my tickets to varying degrees.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Drosselmeyer ???

Oh $hit.Ruler On Ice.

[aaron]

Why do say that? He's never run over the track.
Hymn Book 3 for 4 0n wet tracks and 1 for 2 at the distance.

[iceknight]

This race looks pretty wide open.Trick could run off but I doubt it.Shackleford will cuff him.It's hard what to say Flatout will do but if he fires his best shot etc.Drosselmeyer could pick up the pieces etc.I think those two won't give much in odds.I want something of value in this race and I'm going with Where's Sterling.Don't like the rail trip,nor the near constant layoffs,nor the single work, but this light raced guy has some late kick and could be coming into his own.I looked hard at soaring Empire and Sangaree and might make a minor win bet on either at high odds.But I think I'll bet to win on #1 and take him over and under with Dross and Shack,and to a lesser extent with a few others.

Dross retired.. do you mean RulerOnIce? I do feel it is a wide open race.. and with the slop.. never can tell!

[OTM Al]

Going with the 4 and 1, just to be on record on the off chance it pays....

[Tom]

Trickmeister and Where's Sterling, Soaring Empire
Shack should not be able to stay with the 8 and will fade out of the money.
The rest will face a pace they can't run with and the two closers will come on late.
:8: :1: :5:

[woodtoo]

:1::10::11:Sangaree 25/1 worth a shot

[lamboguy]

my stab will be #5 SOARING EMPIRE

EMPIRE MAKER was one of the best 3 yo's i ever saw before he lost in the KENTUCKY DERBY

[PhantomOnTour]

TRI:
:1:
:3: :8: :9: :10:
:3: :8: :9: :10:

WIN:
:1:

EX:
:8: :9: :10:
:1:

Good luck

[turninforhome10]

There is no reason to ask to much from the :4: I would think Ramon is gonna try to steal one with :8: and Shackleford getting him at the wire. :9: Shackelford loves this track.

[gm10]

Mission Impazible

[Beachbabe]

Trickmeister

[Tom]

TRI:
:1:
:3: :8: :9: :10:
:3: :8: :9: :10:

WIN:
:1:

EX:
:8: :9: :10:
:1:

Good luck

I ended up with the :1: after the 8 dropped too low. Bad ride, I thought.
JMHO. gotta see the replay on that one.

[Beachbabe]

The two best riders in the country showed why they are.

[PhantomOnTour]

I ended up with the :1: after the 8 dropped too low. Bad ride, I thought.
JMHO. gotta see the replay on that one.
Thought he may make a run but got mashed up btw the :4: & :10: at the top of the lane...hard to say how much horse he had at that point. Ran okay to get 4th i think.

[Jasonm921]

Hymn Book is a bonafide Grade 1 dirt horse...I'm all in on him.

I'm glad this turf experiment is over. He's finally where he belongs.

[classhandicapper]

Pretty good race by the winner. I'm not so sure the inside part of the track was the best place to be today. So the ground loss may not have been as much of a disadvantage as usual, but that was still a nice move and good finish in a pretty deep field.

I only wish he hadn't drawn so far outside or was a slightly bigger price. Then I would have taken him. He was the only horse I was interested in. :mad:

[Tom]

Pretty good race by the winner.

I liked him, but I didn't like the 10 hole. Dang!
I thought the key to the race was not class at all, but current fitness.

[PhantomOnTour]

I'm glad this turf experiment is over. He's finally where he belongs.
That he is...good call :ThmbUp:

[classhandicapper]

I liked him, but I didn't like the 10 hole. Dang!
I thought the key to the race was not class at all, but current fitness.

Same thing. It was kind of marginal for me. I was going back and forth all day on it but didn't pull the trigger.

I need testosterone shots. :rolleyes:

[CincyHorseplayer]

I ended up with the :1: after the 8 dropped too low. Bad ride, I thought.
JMHO. gotta see the replay on that one.

I had the :1: too and he had a nice stalking trip but as Class said,not sure if the rail was the place to be or not.He was making a huge move and I thought it was all but over because it looked like he was going to blow by.I was already adding up the payoffs!!There were some serious bumper cars after that and he was all over the place.Nice races out of the top 2 though.

[judd]

Hymn Book is a bonafide Grade 1 dirt horse...I'm all in on him.
great call :ThmbUp:

[toussaud]

Why do say that? He's never run over the track.
that's why

[Jasonm921]

Thanks...I have been bullish on this horse for a long time...but only on dirt. He always tries and that is all you can ask from a horse.

[Investorater]

HYMN BOOK :cool: IS TRIUMPHANT IN THE DONN H. ON A TRACK SURFACE LISTED

AS GOOD AND FROM THE #10 HOLE.....

[Cholly]

Considering the depth and resumes of this field, there seems to be a lack of post-race buzz. What was Hymn Book’s beyer for the race? Were his (and Mission Implazible’s) efforts star-quality, or did they just outlast a flat field?

Romans may have other ideas, but it appears Shackleford is best suited for middle distances. That could be a good thing for spectators—this year’s Met Mile should be a classic.

[cj]

Considering the depth and resumes of this field, there seems to be a lack of post-race buzz. What was Hymn Book’s beyer for the race? Were his (and Mission Implazible’s) efforts star-quality, or did they just outlast a flat field?

Romans may have other ideas, but it appears Shackleford is best suited for middle distances. That could be a good thing for spectators—this year’s Met Mile should be a classic.

106.

[Blenheim]

Gutsy race by the :4: horse in this one as he ran in front of quite a few legit G1 types. Dutrow had this one set up pretty good for the :4: with the :8: goin' out early and burning off the speed and the :4: sittin' right there in the cat bird seat - got the perfect ride! Maybe just a click fast and the track a bit off . . . had it been fast and furious, who knows. The :2: horse ran a good one being right there every step of the way, likely the best horse in the race. Doubt the :10: horse is a legit G1 winner considering he hadn't won a G3 before the Donn - likely the benefit of a fast pace on an off track.

Fun race to watch.

[cj]

Doubt the :10: horse is a legit G1 winner considering he hadn't won a G3 before the Donn - likely the benefit of a fast pace on an off track.

Fun race to watch.

Possible, but I don't think the pace was anything but average.

[Tom]

I thought most of the name horses were throw outs. The resumes looked good, but they were not current.

[Blenheim]

Possible, but I don't think the pace was anything but average.

I didn't get a good look at the surface conditions before the race, but last I looked it was labelled as "good." Is an average pace on a good surface still considered average or is an average pace on a "good" surface better than average?

[cj]

I didn't get a good look at the surface conditions before the race, but last I looked it was labelled as "good." Is an average pace on a good surface still considered average or is an average pace on a "good" surface better than average?

I account for the track speed. I have the leaders running about a length at most faster than optimum for the final time.

[Spalding No!]

Considering the depth and resumes of this field, there seems to be a lack of post-race buzz. What was Hymn Book’s beyer for the race? Were his (and Mission Implazible’s) efforts star-quality, or did they just outlast a flat field?

It's too bad races like the Nassau County, Brooklyn, and Surburban have been eliminated and/or altered as horses like Hymn Book, Mucho Macho Man, and Flat Out could use some spots to run in between now and Saratoga.

Romans may have other ideas, but it appears Shackleford is best suited for middle distances. That could be a good thing for spectators—this year’s Met Mile should be a classic.

I think Shackleford is best suited to a vacation. He was run ragged last year, why does he need to show back up in early 2012? The Westchester/Met Mile seemed a more sensible starting point, particularly since, as you suggest, he might prefer a bit shorter ultimately.

It was meant to be tongue-in-cheek when I first mentioned it, but if Dale Romans continues to send this colt out for minor awards, he may get a second helping of the First Dude treatment.

[Cholly]

106.

Not terrible, but isn't this light for a 4&up Grade I?

I remember the stir a few months back about shrinking Beyers. Anybody have an idea of what's par, over the past 3 years, for a race like this?

[theguarantee]

I think Shackleford is best suited to a vacation. He was run ragged last year, why does he need to show back up in early 2012? The Westchester/Met Mile seemed a more sensible starting point, particularly since, as you suggest, he might prefer a bit shorter ultimately.

It was meant to be tongue-in-cheek when I first mentioned it, but if Dale Romans continues to send this colt out for minor awards, he may get a second helping of the First Dude treatment.

By all accounts Shackleford was training very well leading up to this. Is it possible that he just had a problem keeping up with some of the fastest handicap colts in the country? And off a layoff? Are we really going to criticize trainers for running horses such as this?

[Spalding No!]

By all accounts Shackleford was training very well leading up to this.

Shackleford has reportedly been training very well for his last several starts:

Belmont: "...he's doing so well and coming into the race the right way." (he lost)
Haskell: “He’s been training great, and we’ll see what happens.” (he lost)
Travers: “the Shack is ready to attack.” (he lost)
Indiana Derby: “Judging from the way he’s picked his head back up, we’ll drive up to Indianapolis with some high hopes Saturday.” (he lost)
BC Dirt Mile: "That work the other day was super, and he seemed fresh and happy this morning." (he lost)

...at this point it might be better if Romans doesn't like the way the horse is training.

Is it possible that he just had a problem keeping up with some of the fastest handicap colts in the country?

So you're saying he's simply not a good horse? I guess that's a good possibility. However, I don't rank Hymn Book or Mission Impazible too highly amongst the Thoroughbred elite.

And off a layoff? Are we really going to criticize trainers for running horses such as this?

What such horse? A horse that has danced every dance, including every Classic, for over 13 months now? Without any sort of real break from the track, I doubt this horse is going to improve significantly this year. Best case scenario is that he gets hot for a race or two like Blind Luck (or First Dude) last year, before fizzling out in the summer.

[nijinski]

I agree with Spalding on Shack and many others. If you go back and look at the
the greats of yester year. The classic and G1 champions they for the most part had a nice seasons break. IMO , those very speedy horses don't seem to hold up
as well without being turned out. Check out data from the seventies , when we last saw our TC champs . You'll see the time off .
Flat Out is another interesting one. Earlier in his career his connections were very patient with him .Poor guy had cracks in all four hooves . I cant't imagine
he's not somewhat tender footed at times with his campaign too . So it's kind of a crap shoot with with him IMO .

[PaceAdvantage]

Shack had a full three months off from the races between the BC and Saturday's Donn. And his first listed workout after the Nov5 BC Mile came on January 7.

This means he had two full months of total rest and three months away from the races...

How much more of a break did any of you want to see?

[turninforhome10]

Shak is kind of screwed. His classmates have grown up on him and that maturity he displayed in the TC series (well everyone else is shaving now). What do you with him. He is not a sprinter, can't run against Donn types, turf would be alright but that division is no slouch. I would not want to have to figure him out. He "trains good" as Romans duped me again. His best days are against GrIII types maybe and I would look at Monmouth Park to dodge the big boys and might be a track where his speed would hold. He just does not look like the fire is there when he turned for home. Hope Romans can figure this out as he is a nice horse to promote races.

[cj]

Not terrible, but isn't this light for a 4&up Grade I?

I remember the stir a few months back about shrinking Beyers. Anybody have an idea of what's par, over the past 3 years, for a race like this?

Not these days it isn't.

[nijinski]

Shack had a full three months off from the races between the BC and Saturday's Donn. And his first listed workout after the Nov5 BC Mile came on January 7.

This means he had two full months of total rest and three months away from the races...

How much more of a break did any of you want to see?

From my arm chair , I'd take the Euro classic winner training schedules .
They have a shorter season to get the G1's in so that might certainly
shape it up for them. It just seems to work well with these horses , but the four or five month off when transitioning from two to three especially is a plus.
Here is a great One! Manila , Went out a winner and never worse than second.

Results:

Arlington Park 9/06/87 Race 8 Budweiser-Arlington Million - Gr.1 1st
Saratoga 8/16/87 Race 8 Bernard Baruch Handicap - Gr.2 2nd
Atlantic City 7/15/87 Race 4 United Nations Handicap - Gr.1 1st
Churchill Downs 5/01/87 Race 8 Early Times Turf Classic Stakes 1st
Keeneland 4/14/87 Race 7 Elkhorn Stakes 1st
Santa Anita 11/01/86 Race 6 Breeders' Cup Turf Stakes - Gr.1 1st
Belmont Park 9/20/86 Race 8 Turf Classic - Gr.1 1st
Meadowlands 9/05/86 Race 9 Ballantine's Scotch Classic Stakes - Gr.3 1st
Atlantic City 8/09/86 Race 7 United Nations Handicap - Gr.1 1st
Belmont Park 7/12/86 Race 8 Lexington Stakes - Gr.2 1st
Hollywood Park 6/07/86 Race 8 Cinema Handicap - Gr.2 1st
Belmont Park 5/18/86 Race 8 Saranac Stakes - Gr.2 2nd
Keeneland 4/17/86 Race 7 Forerunner Stakes 2nd
Keeneland 4/09/86 Race 7 Allowance 1st
Hialeah Park 3/18/86 Race 10 Maiden Special Weight 1st
Aqueduct 10/23/85 Race 6 Maiden Special Weight 2nd
Saratoga 8/21/85 Race 6 Maiden Special Weight 2nd
Saratoga 8/03/85 Race 3 Maiden Special Weight 7th


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Career Racing Summary:

Starts Firsts Seconds Thirds Earnings
18 12 5 0 $ 2,692,799
Summary by Year:

Year Starts Firsts Seconds Thirds Earnings
1987 5 4 1 0 $ 868,170
1986 10 8 2 0 $ 1,814,729
1985 3 0 2 0 $ 9,900



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[CincyHorseplayer]

If I remember right the only races Shackleford won were on biased tracks last year.That would explain his performances more than anything.

[Valuist]

If I remember right the only races Shackleford won were on biased tracks last year.That would explain his performances more than anything.

In the Preakness? Hard to fault his effort there, prompting a fast pace and still being able to hold off the Derby winner. I don't recall Pimlico being particularly biased that day. Its not like the old days where you just box 1-2-3 in the two turn races there.

[Spalding No!]

Shack had a full three months off from the races between the BC and Saturday's Donn. And his first listed workout after the Nov5 BC Mile came on January 7.

This means he had two full months of total rest and three months away from the races...

How much more of a break did any of you want to see?

He had to have at least a couple of weeks of "legging up" before breezing for the first time. I would guess he had about 30 days off tops. That's if he left the racetrack at all.

[cj]

He got good at the right time. The Florida Derby race was huge, the Derby was deceptively good, and the Preakness was a very good effort. He was much the best that day. However, I think the Belmont was pushing it and the effort really took its toll. I remember posting here he would have no chance and I hated he was pointed the race.

[classhandicapper]

If I remember right the only races Shackleford won were on biased tracks last year.That would explain his performances more than anything.

IMO he ran well in the Derby against the track. I played him that day because I thought he ran very good race in Florida also. Then I played him again in the Preakness and thought he ran well that day.

I think he was a decent spring 3YO that had a tough campaign and was never really suited to 10F-12F. It didn't look like he was developing much through summer and fall (so he started falling behind), but he did run well in the BC.

He was in a bit of a tough spot in the Donn off a 3 month layoff with another quality speed to deal with, but I expected him to run a little better than that.

[Robert Fischer]

In the Preakness? Hard to fault his effort there, prompting a fast pace and still being able to hold off the Derby winner. I don't recall Pimlico being particularly biased that day. Its not like the old days where you just box 1-2-3 in the two turn races there.

Nothing really to "fault" Shackleford in the Preakness. He gamely held on on the wrong lead as Animal Kingdom ran out of real estate in deep stretch. The pace was moderate to easy and Shackleford benefited greatly from being much closer to the pace than Animal Kingdom (and to a lesser extent Dialed In). However that was their known running style and the Preakness is not some new race. Nothing to fault Shackleford for winning a race he had a good chance to win whether he had some advantages or not.
Dance City and Astrology didn't really run a step and finished close.

[CincyHorseplayer]

IMO he ran well in the Derby against the track. I played him that day because I thought he ran very good race in Florida also. Then I played him again in the Preakness and thought he ran well that day.

I think he was a decent spring 3YO that had a tough campaign and was never really suited to 10F-12F. It didn't look like he was developing much through summer and fall (so he started falling behind), but he did run well in the BC.

He was in a bit of a tough spot in the Donn off a 3 month layoff with another quality speed to deal with, but I expected him to run a little better than that.

Had to go back and look at Preakness day and you are right.If anything speed and the rail was not good that day.Here were the route positions of the winners at 1st call and notes before the Preakness;

-7/9--rallied 5w from the 8 hole

-5/7--4w(pp 6)

-4/2.5--3w(pp 2)

The 2 notes on the sprints were circled turn and 3w.Shackleford ran very well looking back at it.

1st race off a layoff,on an off track,with some decent speed I'm not going to be too hard on him.We'll see what he's got.

CJ what were his 1st and 2nd call figures?I think that unless those numbers fell off badly from his norm(say 113-105) he'll still be competitive this season.

[cj]

Nothing really to "fault" Shackleford in the Preakness. He gamely held on on the wrong lead as Animal Kingdom ran out of real estate in deep stretch. The pace was moderate to easy and Shackleford benefited greatly from being much closer to the pace than Animal Kingdom (and to a lesser extent Dialed In). However that was their known running style and the Preakness is not some new race. Nothing to fault Shackleford for winning a race he had a good chance to win whether he had some advantages or not.
Dance City and Astrology didn't really run a step and finished close.

The pace was FAR from moderate, let alone easy, in the Preakness. He had every right to collapse yet held on for the win. That is the exact reason I hated him in the Belmont. I was pretty sure he would be over the top after that and 12f certainly wasn't going to help.

[cj]

CJ what were his 1st and 2nd call figures?I think that unless those numbers fell off badly from his norm(say 113-105) he'll still be competitive this season.

The Donn early figs for the leader were 109-109, 1/2 and 3/4.

[Blenheim]

The figures don't tell us the 2012 Donn was one of the slowest on record for this decade. Another example of the figures not providing the complete picture, not telling us the whole story. The figures often times obscure attributes they intend to reflect and can mislead us to believe they reflect qualities they actually do not.

[Spalding No!]

The figures don't tell us the 2012 Donn was one of the slowest on record for this decade.
Hasn't there only been 3 Donn Handicaps this decade?

Another example of the figures not providing the complete picture, not telling us the whole story.
When you say "slowest", do you mean the actual final time? Isn't that what the speed figures are designed to interpret? Or should we believe that both Skip Away and Cigar were inferior horses to Hymn Book?

The figures often times obscure attributes they intend to reflect and can mislead us to believe they reflect qualities they actually do not.
Anybody else get the sudden urge for a ricecake?

[camourous]

All the Donn really showed was that the older horse division is not going to be a fast group, it'll be like last years 3 year old division, competitive, but no one is going to stand out.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I don't think it says anything of the sort.A 106 for a field in February mostly coming off layoffs and/or going from 1 to 2 turns isn't horridly slow.Judging from another post I read on here today the 3yo's are a little faster than last year,too early to judge what the older horses will end up til they get 3-4-5-6 races under their belt.

[PhantomOnTour]

My Quirin style figs have the Donn at 106-111-112.
The 6f and final time figs are right at par for older Gr1 males by my numbers.