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turninforhome10
02-05-2012, 03:35 AM
Since we have a lot of time and questions regarding this years crop and I am trying to get back into analyzing pedigrees again for breeding season, thought I would do something I did for a farm I last worked. I will try and break down the pedigrees as I understand them and present the horse with some history and ancestor races.
Sometimes seeing a name in a pedigree can change an opinion especially when a horse is being asked to do something for the first time as evidenced by Algorithms in the slop. When I saw the forecast for the Holy Bull and remembering when I worked up Cryptoclearance how he ran in the Widener in 88 granted he was 5 at the time but the moves were similar. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ji434TTJrDo&feature=related
I am a huge fan of Cryptoclearance mostly because of his female family. http://www.pedigreequery.com/cryptoclearance I love the inheritance of Blue Larkspur from the bottom and Princequillo on the top. This would allow for a double inheritance of known large heart carriers via the x trail. Blue Larkspur tail female members have performed remarkably in the Derby. No Blue Larkspur, no Myrtlewood and no Mr Prospector or Seattle Slew. Princequillo stands alone as broodmare sire being grandad to the immortal Secretariat. Will go into Myrtlewood and family 13-c in a later post.

Horses carrying direct tail female to Blue Larkspur on the Derby Trail
Liaison

Horses carrying direct tail female to Princequillo
Consotium
Reckless Jerry
Fed Biz

With all the talk regarding stamina, IMHO horses carrying the direct tail female connections to the aforementioned stallions should be given extra consideration.
Well I have looked at Haskin's Horses and a good bit of the 397 nominated to the Triple Crown and have found some other gems to bring to a later post. Any input is welcome.

turninforhome10
02-05-2012, 04:05 AM
X factor
These are links to x factor articles
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circulatory_system_of_the_horse#The_.22X_factor.22

http://www.steinbeckequine.com/pdf/TheEquineHeart%201%20MD.pdf
This is quite fascinating regarding the Derby and kind of debunks the Princequillo idea and will look at Mahmoud and War Admiral
http://forums.about.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx?tsn=77&nav=messages&webtag=ab-horseracing&tid=21658

http://www.pedigreepost.net/archives/XFactorDWDavidge.html
These are good reads.

turninforhome10
02-05-2012, 04:32 AM
This is a real good read and sums up my theories in a nutshell and reads easy
http://wingspanartsintl.com/pdf/X_Factor_PartI.pdf
and why I am stressing a direct tail female meaning on the very bottom of the 4th quarter the x trail. The horses mentioned above were direct tail female meaning the chances of the mitochondrial DNA being passed forward should be greater when doubled from the 2nd quarter (stallions dam).

turninforhome10
02-05-2012, 12:20 PM
Looking today at the 6th at Gulfstream 0205. 1 1/16th on the dirt. In a race loaded with pedigree power, I am looking at the :8: Ghost of Sage Cat. 1/2 sister to Desert Party GSW of 900k plus. Dam is perfectly inbred Barbizon in 2 and 4th quarters. Worktab says to me that this could cut fast fractions if asked but looks to have been rated untill the last 5f work in 1.00. Not thrilled about connections first time distance record but willing to take a chance this one is ready. No true real early speed in the race and thinks this one could steal. Dr Sinatra world renown cardiology specialist keeps this one. I understand how deep this race is from a pedigree standpoint, so this would be standing on a ledge. Taking a flyer for this one to be in the exacta. Hero or Zero. Since there is no thread for the Oaks I will post 3yo filly maidens here.

turninforhome10
02-05-2012, 03:09 PM
Looking today at the 6th at Gulfstream 0205. 1 1/16th on the dirt. In a race loaded with pedigree power, I am looking at the :8: Ghost of Sage Cat. 1/2 sister to Desert Party GSW of 900k plus. Dam is perfectly inbred Barbizon in 2 and 4th quarters. Worktab says to me that this could cut fast fractions if asked but looks to have been rated untill the last 5f work in 1.00. Not thrilled about connections first time distance record but willing to take a chance this one is ready. No true real early speed in the race and thinks this one could steal. Dr Sinatra world renown cardiology specialist keeps this one. I understand how deep this race is from a pedigree standpoint, so this would be standing on a ledge. Taking a flyer for this one to be in the exacta. Hero or Zero. Since there is no thread for the Oaks I will post 3yo filly maidens here.

Zero looked around the obvious to find something not there. Twisted logic into a pretzel until it came up as sense. Never Involved.

Blenheim
02-05-2012, 11:10 PM
As I have written earlier, I'm no expert at this pedigree stuff but always have and continue to find it fascinating. Lookin' forward to reading some of your work on this crop of Derby contenders.
~
Thanks and I did read the articles you linked. I believe the X Factor (XF) information is relatively straight forward, but correct me if I'm wrong. The XF is a large heart genetic trait transmitted through the mtDNA.

A few questions:

How many Derby winners with the XF?

Isn't the XF a genetic trait and not not an indicator of ability . . . aren't there a bunch of large heart horses that haven' won a race?

We know the scientists at Equinome discovered the speed allele, the C and the endurance allele, the T. What have scientists discovered regarding the XF?

turninforhome10
02-06-2012, 01:16 AM
As I have written earlier, I'm no expert at this pedigree stuff but always have and continue to find it fascinating. Lookin' forward to reading some of your work on this crop of Derby contenders.
~
Thanks and I did read the articles you linked. I believe the X Factor (XF) information is relatively straight forward, but correct me if I'm wrong. The XF is a large heart genetic trait transmitted through the mtDNA.

A few questions:

How many Derby winners with the XF?
See the article regarding http://forums.about.com/n/pfx/forum...acing&tid=21658

" Isn't the XF a genetic trait and not not an indicator of ability . . . aren't there a bunch of large heart horses that haven' won a race?"
Yes, my boss and mentor always told me that a horse is born with inherent abilities and it is up to the trainer to find those and use them to best suit the horse. Class distance and the like. I think of the Xfactor as a turbo charger if the horse has ability If you have two horses that look equal on ability the large heart is the extra umph to allow the horse to finish stronger than those without. I feel sometimes when a horse really goes all out for the win, they can really fatigue themselves sometimes to the point of figuring out "if I run my ass off and come back feeling this shitty why would I do that again". A large heart allows for better oxygen delivery to tissues but also allows for the waste products of metabolism to be cleared easier reducing fatigue and cramping from lactic acid accumulation.

We know the scientists at Equinome discovered the speed allele, the C and the endurance allele, the T. What have scientists discovered regarding the XF?
When looking for Scientific research regarding this an other subjects, I feel the Irish are so far ahead of us, mostly because the horse is more of agricultural commodity there than here. This may sound cold, but if we used horse as foodstuff in the US we would have way more research from the public sector.

Thanks for reading. My main goal of this thread is not to pick winners, although I will take em when I can. I feel through this info maybe those that read this that are breeders can make better decisions, which in turn makes all horseracing fans better off in the long run. My info is always free to the players and fans.

turninforhome10
02-06-2012, 11:35 AM
Using an old version of Tesiopower software with no updates since 2005, getting it out of mothballs. Have to manually input all horses with familes. Starting with Haskins Derby Dozen.
I will update when finding new info.
Starting with
Creative cause- tail female to Blue Larkspur Also of note the inbreeding to the Reine Pocahontas dam of Chieftain and Tom Rolfe- Tom Rolfe is a professional influence and is where CC gets his stamina. Stamiina is high and CD tends toward speed. Sex balanced inbreeding to Nasrullah. Strong female inbreeding to Native Dancer through 3 different grandsons. No Mr Prospector. Nice pedigree.
Will update as I go along. Have know found something productive to do while my db is handicapping .

turninforhome10
02-06-2012, 03:15 PM
When lookiing at the descendants of Blue Larkspur through the female sorted with a old Del Mar db I come up 18420 direct descendants. Will sort through and find the Classic horses.

turninforhome10
02-06-2012, 04:56 PM
Descendants of Classic note from Blue Larkspur direct female line
Crytoclearance Forest Camp Forestry Deputed Testamony Never Bend
Indian Charlie Mazel Trick Exchange Rate Fly So Free Fort Marcy
Siberian Express Jolie's Halo More Than Ready Key To The Mint
Balto Star Yankee Victor Criminal Type Grand Slam Green Dancer
Prarie Bayou Valiant Nature Polish Navy Seeking The Gold
Mecke Forward Pass Cutlass Reality Powis Castle Golden Missle Bahri
Dance Bid Bernstein Smilin Singin Sam Codex TV Lark
And the royalty
Buckpasser, Damascus, Seattle Slew, Mr Prospector, Roberto and my favorite Alydar

Pretty impressive

turninforhome10
02-06-2012, 10:39 PM
Descendants of War Admiral direct tail female 10928 in my old db
Classic notables
Alysheba Iron Leige Swaps Polish Navy Dixie Union Arch
Hoist The Flag Eastern Echo Dubai Millennium
Super Saver Beau Purple Magisterial Ordway Larry The Legend
Lear Fan Woodman Accelerator Bianconi Star of Cozzene
Cozzene Helmsman Gun Bow Alleged Bupers Disco Rico
Smoke Glacken TM Opera O (JPN) Althea
Horses carrying both Blue Larkspur and War Admiral directly
Buckpasser Green Desert Sea Hero Key To The Mint Golden Missile
Bernstein

Buckpasser stands out and wondering about Golden Missile mares


Mahmoud next

turninforhome10
02-07-2012, 12:21 AM
Robert Lewis winner I'll Have Another represents an War Admiral over Mahmoud cross on the bottom and comes from direct Mahmoud tail female. Arch may have a good future as a broodmare sire. The female line is very stout going back to Sea Bird (Highest ranked timeform number in Arc in History) Watch
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzXPXjUcOaA
While Sea Bird did not breed on very well this line has been upgraded with strong females in Althea and Never Knock (Dam of Go for Gin). Danzig inbreeding in through strong females. Has the right inbreeding of sons of ND as Sadlers Wells and Danzig have done well crossed as well as Nijinsky II and Lyphard.
I'll Have Another has every reason to move forward and while his performance in the Lewis was not breathtaking he finished within himself.
http://www.equineline.com/Free-5X-Pedigree.cfm?page_state=ORDER_AND_CONFIRM&reference_number=8583721&registry=T&horse_name=I%27ll+Have+Another&ASCID=1443262

redshift1
02-07-2012, 05:05 AM
I'll Have Another has the potential to go the classic distance his sire Flower Alley ran three consecutive triple digit Beyers around two turns, not to sure about his dam though. Will have to wait until April as his next start is the SA Derby.


http://www.threechimney.com/FlowerAlley/

.

turninforhome10
02-07-2012, 11:33 AM
I'll Have Another has the potential to go the classic distance his sire Flower Alley ran three consecutive triple digit Beyers around two turns, not to sure about his dam though. Will have to wait until April as his next start is the SA Derby.


http://www.threechimney.com/FlowerAlley/

.
What is most impressive about Flower Alley is with 2 Crops to race his offsprings AWD is already impressive

By Racing Year
Stakes GS
Year Wins Wins Wins Earned
2010 8 1 1 $605,239
2011 76 3 1 $2,004,180
*Totals 84 4 2 $2,609,419
1.26 AEI; 1.46 CI; 7.14 AWD
In 2011: 97 rnrs, 48 wnrs, 2 sw
Lifetime On Turf: 10 wins, $385,606
Avg Earnings Per Starter: $26,358
*to November 6, 2011

turninforhome10
02-08-2012, 05:12 AM
Mahmoud Tail female line descendants 18386. Notables include:
Affirmed Determine Majestic Prince Real Quiet Gato Del Sol Fappiano
Quiet American Secreto Quack Gallant Man Your Host
Dare And Go Honour And Glory Commendable Cannonade Ogygian
Our Native With Approval Touch Gold Jambalya Jazz Pia Star
Favorite Trick Bold Lad His Majesty Graustark John Henry
Formal Dinner Machiavellian Halo Volponi Quack Palace Music
Boones Mill It's Freezing Caller One Kona Gold El Prado
Fairy King Prawn (JPN) Johar
And the Royalty
Northern Dancer
One that is obvious to me is the disparity between the numbers between the three stallions in question. Mahmoud and Blue Larkspur both enjoyed a large book of mares that would represent some of the bluest blood in the land. War Admiral was a kept stallion by Riddle only covering those mares proven worthy by blood or political connection.
Mahmoud Story
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahmoud_(horse)
Photo (http://www.google.com/imgres?q=mahmoud+horse&hl=en&sa=X&biw=1024&bih=681&tbm=isch&prmd=imvns&tbnid=c-WfuYFBBFZoSM:&imgrefurl=http://lickingcalcutta.blogspot.com/2008/12/grey-horses.html&docid=l6BT7JBT-cqs1M&imgurl=http://www.circledhorses.com/MAHMOUD(TB).jpg&w=640&h=546&ei=1C8yT5v4KIWW0QHFr6HOBw&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=111&vpy=4&dur=75&hovh=207&hovw=243&tx=195&ty=100&sig=100130737705627356222&page=1&tbnh=157&tbnw=184&start=0&ndsp=14&ved=1t:429,r:0,s:0)
Blue Larkspur Story
http://www.tbheritage.com/Portraits/BlueLarkspur.html
Photo
War Admiral Story
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Admiral
Photo (http://www.google.com/imgres?q=war+admiral&hl=en&sa=X&biw=1024&bih=681&tbm=isch&prmd=imvns&tbnid=j4qqL_iLM6vvhM:&imgrefurl=http://www.pedigreequery.com/cgi-bin/new/hypo.cgi%3Fhypo_sire%3DCahill%2BRoad%26hypo_dam%3D Escopazzo%26g%3D7%26Submit%3D%26t%3Deldorado%26wha t%3Ddone%26border%3D0&docid=YqCjehDgi21bVM&imgurl=http://circledhorses.com/war_admiral.jpg&w=640&h=524&ei=ES8yT-qMLYSq0AH269zfBw&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=600&vpy=81&dur=2702&hovh=203&hovw=248&tx=103&ty=124&sig=100130737705627356222&page=1&tbnh=135&tbnw=152&start=0&ndsp=15&ved=1t:429,r:3,s:0)


Ok, so now your asking why the hell I am reading this and why is this guy rambling on about the importance of these 3 stallions( I will look at Princequillo later)? My point , the blood from these stallions mares account for 16 Derby wins since 1954 when Determine carried Mahmoud blood across the finish wire at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.
Direct Inclusions
Determine (Mahmoud) who would sire Decidedly
Swaps(War Admiral)Sire of Chateaugay
Iron Leige (War Admiral)
Northern Dancer (Mahmoud) Never Sired Derby Winner in US Grandsire of Ferdinand
Forward Pass(Blue Larkspur)
Majestic Prince (Mahmoud) Sire Line of Maria's Mon (Monarchos)
Cannonade (Mahmoud) Sire of Belmont Winner Caveat
Seattle Slew(Blue Larkspur) Triple Crown Sire of Swale Sireline of AP Indy Most Prevalent Bold Ruler Sire Line
Affirmed (Mahmoud) Triple Crown
Gato Del Sol (Mahmoud)
Sea Hero (Blue Larkspur\ War Admiral)
Real Quiet (Mahmoud)
Smarty Jones(War Admiral)
Super Saver(War Admiral)

Sire of Derby Winner from Lines
Mr. Prospector (Blue Larkspur) Sire of Fusiaichi Pegasus
Sire Of Fappiano
Unbridled (Grindstone Mine That Bird) Real Quiet
Sire of Forty Niner
Funny Cide
Sire of Machiavellian
Street Sense
Sire of Gulch
Thunder Gulch

Strike the Gold and Alysheba were sired by Alydar(Blue Larkspur)
Pleasant Colony was sired by His Majesty ( Mahmoud)
Sunday Silence and Sunny's Halo were sired by Halo (Mahmoud)
Spend a Buck and SIlver Charm grandsired by Buckpasser(War Admiral)
Barbaro grandsired by Roberto (War Admiral)


I have tried to be as thorough possible and have double checked the accuracy of the data.

Mahmoud line- 9 as direct female descendants 1 through Northern Dancer 2 with Halo 1 with Determined 1 with His Majesty

War Admiral Line-8 female 2 with Buckpasser 1 with Dynaformer

Blue Larkspur-3 as direct female line 9 through Mr Prospector



38 winners of 57 Derbys since 1954 well over 50% just from 3 broodmare lines. Direct female descendants back to War Admiral, Mahmoud, Blue Larkspur foundation mares through tail female.
Pretty impressive.

All from 3 broodmare lines.

turninforhome10
02-08-2012, 05:21 AM
Sorry 34 Derby Winners

Ironically, the Mahmoud Sire line is all but dead same with Blue Larkspur
War Admiral hangs on with Tiznow but through the daughters we get all three major sire lines of Northern Dancer Mr Prospector and Seattle Slew.
I guess this would be a conclusion of sorts before going forward to start breaking down pedigrees for this year. Have a new respect for mama's yet?

turninforhome10
02-08-2012, 01:52 PM
Notables from 8423 direct female lines
Sham Dare and Go Ack Ack Danzig Connection Kingmambo
Quack Hill Prince Moscow Ballet Gilded Time Honour and Glory
Cheiftain Burning Roma Tom Rolfe Sky Classic Miswaki
Tale of the Cat Smart Strike Run the Gauntlet
Robellino Mill Reef Bold Lad High Yield Bien Bien Hero's Tribute
And the big red machine
Secretariat the only Derby winner
Notice how many of the above have already been mentioned with the big 3.

turninforhome10
02-08-2012, 08:30 PM
$150,000 Hutcheson Stakes (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/USA/GP/2012/2/11/8/hutcheson-s) (gr. IT, Race 8, 3:49 p.m.), 3YO, 7 Furlongs (Dirt)
PP. Horse, Jockey, Weight, Trainer
1. Tarpy's Goal (FL), J Castellano, 116, D L Romans
2. Wildcat Creek (FL), A Serpa, 116, E Plesa Jr.
3. Thunder Moccasin (KY), J R Velazquez, 116, T A Pletcher
4. Quick Wit (KY), R A Dominguez, 116, D L Romans
5. Il Villano (KY), E Trujillo, 118, S L Crowell
6. Ever So Lucky (KY), J R Leparoux, 116, J E Sheppard


Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/67363/ever-so-lucky-likely-for-hutcheson#ixzz1lpQr7Rq9
Only two horses have been able to complete the Hutcheson Derby double
Spectacular Bid and Swale.

Breaking down the field

Tarpy's Goal(High Cotton- Terre des Hommes (IRE) by Exbourne)
Young stallion High Cotton is represented here. From first crop 6.04 AWD reflects the Juvenile distances with not very many stretching out so far.
High Cotton has potential to be strong sprinting influence getting Currency Swap winning the 7 fur Hopeful. Sire's Sire Dixie Union won the Haskell and Produced PA Derby winner Gone Astray as well as Derby hopeful Union Rags

Caught in the middle of something will finish post later tonight.

turninforhome10
02-10-2012, 05:55 AM
Finally got a chance to crunch the pedigrees and watch replays. When reading the review, the info used was gathered using The Blood Horse and thoroughbred pedigree query and it is not as accurate as a Catalog style but for the purposes of handicapping for the thread, I am keeping cost's down.. I prefer the Comprehensive Sales Analysis by Brisnet but 20$ is a bit to steep. You used to be able to get them free at the sales and give the best picture of the famliy's race record and general worth.

$150,000*Hutcheson Stakes*(gr. IT, Race 8, 3:49 p.m.), 3YO, 7 Furlongs (Dirt)
PP. Horse, Jockey, Weight, Trainer
1. Tarpy's Goal (FL), J Castellano, 116, D L Romans*
By Sharp Humor who now resides in Korea. Not a fan of inbred female line stallions for male offspring but that’s personal. Sire took similar trip winning the Swale 7fur and stretched to run2nd in the FLA derby. Fractured a knee in the Derby. Romans trained Sharp Humor. Pedigree is quite stout sporting Grassy router Exbourne and German Royalty Orsinin Derby winner Iron Leige is in quality female line that in imported and sports quality stallion selection. My concern is the line going back double to Newminster and Hermit both bleeders. I know it was a long time back but I have my crazy ways. Don’t know what happened at Saratoga. Shins or breathing or maybe the surface but did not like the rail.. Really ran against little at CD and was nursed back with a nice 5fur work on the turf and then got his N1x going all out to win by 2. Was not much left in the tank but galloped ok. Jlep rides for Sheppard. If you have confidence in Javier the 5-1 or better.
2. Wildcat Creek (FL), A Serpa, 116, E Plesa Jr.*
Wildcat Heir is what I call precocious .Bloodlines for good 2yo speedsters but when stretched out class prove poor wagers. Shackleford stayed a little farther than most from the line. Female family produced nice horse in Harlan Gr1 Sprinter.
Not much of a mover as he paddles much like a sprinter and action looked faltering when all out for second in the Pasco . Look for N2x Don’t see much reason for improvement.
3. Thunder Moccasin (KY), J R Velazquez, 116, T A Pletcher*
By Ap Warrior who went on tear in Calif as 3yo. Already showing promise a sire although nobody is stretching out yet. Tail female to La Troienne. Quality tail line including Forli and Devils Bag.. Won debut impressively and flattered by Ender Kneviel and Panthro both cruising to easy maiden scores. Came back to winners circle still pulling and looked very full of himself. Has the right to move forward just want to one more gear before future book this one. Does this one have to win today or prep for Fla Derby? Pletcher has something special and this one is mapped out. 95k bargain.
4. Quick Wit (KY), R A Dominguez, 116, D L Romans*
Romans sends out another son of Sharp Humor . Nothing special in pedigree. 32k purchase must have been from individual look. Made a big middle move in last and looked to hang a bit when passing tiring foes and moved away in the stretch with no real threat from a suspect bunch. Second maiden winner that Julien L gives up. Romans has Derby fever and wants to get there with a Sharp Humor. Might regress is pace stays hot to lane.
5. Il Villano (KY), E Trujillo, 118, S L Crowell*
By Pollard’s Vision who won the Illinois Derby and counts Blind Luck to his classic winner resume. No female names to speak of and scratching my head about the 600k sales tag.. Tried Alpha in last and ran with that one till the 1/16th pole and held on for second. Pace record shows only one tactic to employ. Go to the front and improve your position. Probably wants to sprint and just how Philly speed translates here is the question. New pilot looks to get caught outside horses as others inside want same thing.
6. Ever So Lucky (KY), J R Leparoux, 116, J E Sheppard*
One of my favorite combos of Jockey and trainer. 600k purchase for the respected Augustin stable this one looks the part of one being mapped for the Derby. Liked the hiatus at Camden in Aiken , good for a young horse. By the venerable Indian Charlie who seeks to get the classic winner with this one. Female line is the best of Farish with a triple of Something royal . Double of Gay Missle through siblings Lassie Dear and Gay Macene. See AP Indy . This is pretty special pedigree that has a strong likelihood of carrying large heart not to mention breeding potential. Has grade earnings and ran a respectable 2nd to the well regarded Gemologist in the Gr II Jockey Cup. Works are showing improving sort and Sheppard looks to Churchill. A win today would be within the scope but don’t see the onion getting peeled to fast here. Should be used as threat for Fla Derby with good effort here. Could be the nicest pedigree so far this year.

Pace Synopsis
Would see II Villano trying for the lead with Thundering Moccasin keeping that one wide . Ever So Lucky gets a good trip in the second flight and battles with Thundering Moccasin to get beat a length with a tiring Ill Villano hanging on for third with tired Wild cat Creek in 4th

Read more:*http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/67363/ever-so-lucky-among-six-entered-for-hutcheson#ixzz1lxlVWL2y

turninforhome10
02-11-2012, 03:38 AM
Horses carrying direct tail female to Princequillo
Consotium
Reckless Jerry
Fed Biz

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2012/02/09/fed-biz-wins-at-santa-anita.aspx#

turninforhome10
02-11-2012, 04:17 AM
Since my goal of this thread is education, here are some of the reports for today's Hutcheson
Dosages for Ever so Lucky and Thunder Moccasin using OB scale with Quality Index
7 gen pedigree for Both
Key names for Thunder Moccasin
If anybody wants a horse report for TC contenders just yell and I will post.
Feel free to ask any questions.

turninforhome10
02-11-2012, 04:38 AM
Here is Union Rags pedigree info

turninforhome10
02-11-2012, 05:02 PM
Workmanlike effort on a very poor track. No reason to take any chances this early. Pletcher has a decision to make with this efforts effort to move forward towards to longer distances.

Pedigree note.
Take a look at his dosage and notice how nicely AP Indy fits over Storm Cat.
My theory regarding the x-trail with Thunder Moccassin is that AP Indy sons will transmit through Weekend Surprise and will get high scores when bred on Storm Cat lines.The heart scores of Secretariat are of the finest quality and seem to be dominant. It is to bad he will be one of those sires that will have no male line left but I predict his inbreeding through females will rival those of the big 3.

That track is so greasy and the turf is poor today. I would not put to much stock as seeing any key races so far today. Too early in the season.
Thanks for reading.

turninforhome10
02-11-2012, 06:01 PM
Side note on Thunder Moccasin just noticed that AP Warrioir is from the female family of Storm Bird which is the sire of Storm Cat. Inbreeding to South Ocean is some of WIndfields finest bloodlines. See EP Taylor.

turninforhome10
02-12-2012, 01:32 PM
Juddmont's stellar producer Toussaud was represented by 2 fillies who look to be nicely progressing 3yos.
Nebraska for Mr Mott at AQ ran a good third against Msw going 170. I don't think this wants to go long on the dirt. Take a look below. What about that Natalma inbreeding. Juddmont has the best.
Modulate on the other hand look very game in running down foes in her first start at GP going 7 fur with J LU aboard, Modulate should make some noise on the filly classic trail. Notice the doubles of Buckpasser in the dam and that Mizzen Mast comes from Tom Fool mare line. This filly has big big future and Juddmont did a superb job with this one. See below

turninforhome10
02-16-2012, 07:44 PM
Sorry about being laxed in my post.Will be working on the Soutwest and El Camino Since nobody else is posting in the thread and those of you who are reading are interested in looking at new things, this is vey powerful
http://www.sartinmethodology.com/pubs/PsychologyOfWinningPMTR.pdf
Ask yourself why do you handicap after readin this.

Blenheim
02-21-2012, 12:31 PM
turninforhome,

I would appreciate it if you can take the time to provide your pedigree work up on El Padrino (The Godfather).

I've been takin' a hard look at him and he looks kinda interesting in a lot of different ways . . . in particular his ability to adapt to different surfaces. He has run at four different tracks and come the Risen Star this weekend, that will be five races on five different surfaces - can't forget he has trained at the Belmont training track and I believe it is Palm Meadows. No doubt it is gonna be a good one this weekend and the Pletcher horse sure looks tough. I'm lookin' forward to listening to what the trainers of Mr. Bowling and Z Dager will have to say should Mr. Pletcher amble on into the Fair Ground and make of with the Risen Star. Mind you I'm still a big fan of Z Dager, but I just can't see how they beat The Godfather.

I think It would be nice to take a look at your pedigree analysis for the top contenders in this race. Lookin' forward to reading your work. :cool:

http://www.pedigreequery.com/el+padrino9

http://www.pedigreequery.com/z+dager

http://www.pedigreequery.com/mr+bowling2 (http://http://www.pedigreequery.com/mr+bowling2)


Nothin' like the Derby Trail !

turninforhome10
02-21-2012, 05:31 PM
Will break down top contenders for the big races as individuals (it is much easier to put in attachments. Since El Padrino is the buzz horse lets look at him
Ell Padrino - By Pulpit out of Enchanted Rock by Giant's Causeway
Bred by the good breeder Emory Hamilton (" Other top horses raced include Too Chic, Queena's dam; La Reina and Serra Lake ... Other notable horses bred include Cappuchino, Pin Stripe and Coal Play ... Purchased her first horse – Too Chic – as a yearling at a King Ranch dispersal in 1980 following the death of her grandfather in 1974 ... She paid $100,000 for the filly ... Both Too Chic and Queena won the G1 Maskette ... Another of Too Chic's daughters, G1 winner Chic Shirine, produced G2 winners Waldoboro and Tara Roma"). Wondering why Hamilton sold this one? Pletcher got a deal? Well the dam Enchanted Rock was unplaced in 1 start and looks to be the weaker of her sisters. El Padrino is first foal to make the races and I imagine dams stock has went up immensely.
Pulpit looks to be forming his own branch of the AP Indy line. What I have noticed about the Pulpits is that they perform well early on in the TC trail but yet to find one with the moxie to wear the roses. IMHO prone to leg problems as their sheer speed may be more than their body can handle. Pulpit himself locked like an early Derby winner before getting missing the big bance. Maybe the line is jinxed but I feel is has to do with being early matures and being asked to much to soon.
El Padrino won his last race impressively to the highly regarded Take Charge Indy. After that horse he beat no one. His Beyer was one of the best of the year though for this crop.
Pro's- Is peaking at the right time to make this class move. Has right connections and Castellano ships for this. While I think this horse will move forward today, he is going to be pushed to make the graded earnings list. A win today and huge effort is necessary to move towards Louisville. How he will handle the pressure of a new track, better horses and that long stretch at the FG are really the gamble here. The horse is talented and looks to have a bright future
Cons- Call me crazy but I don't like the fact that Emory sold this one. Mare is light on race record and while family is one of the better at producing fillies that run The best male runner is Soaring Empire and his record while good is a notch below his peers and his record for putting back to back races is bad.
Looking at his pedigree he is light on solid and professional influences. I am also not a big fan of inbreeding to Mr Prospector so close. If El Padrino turns out on the left front leg then he is a real Mr Prospector and while brilliant they just don't last.
Synopsis- I like his chances to run a big race, but will find out his true mettle when faced with the daunting stretch with a rider who is not really known for riding the FG.
Welcome any comments and the opinions are my own based on my own research and correct me if I am wrong please. See my reports below.
Will have more to come

turninforhome10
02-21-2012, 07:33 PM
Z Dager is an interesting pedigree. Free of Mr Prospector and Northern Dancer and Tom Fool is the highest % of inbreeding. This is and old schol pedigree stemming back to on old Fred Hooper line. Notice the female line goes back to Mahmoud. This line was Hoopers attempt to buid a classic horse using homebred stallions. While Mizzen Mast is more known for being a grass sire his pedigree is stamina laden and has allowed for AWD of 7.34as Mast Track and Midships are both proven stayers (grass).
IMHO Z Dager is moving along nicely and still doing things on his own. Should move forward here and I think the longer the better. So far this is Assmussen best shot at getting to CD in MAY, not taking anything away from the El Camino Real winner.
I like this pedigree.

turninforhome10
02-22-2012, 01:08 AM
Z Dager is an interesting pedigree. Free of Mr Prospector and Northern Dancer and Tom Fool is the highest % of inbreeding. This is and old schol pedigree stemming back to on old Fred Hooper line. Notice the female line goes back to Mahmoud. This line was Hoopers attempt to buid a classic horse using homebred stallions. While Mizzen Mast is more known for being a grass sire his pedigree is stamina laden and has allowed for AWD of 7.34as Mast Track and Midships are both proven stayers (grass).
IMHO Z Dager is moving along nicely and still doing things on his own. Should move forward here and I think the longer the better. So far this is Assmussen best shot at getting to CD in MAY, not taking anything away from the El Camino Real winner.
I like this pedigree.

When analyzing Z Dager I decided to take a look at Mizzen Mast as he is showing a propensity for stayers. The result is a total throwback pedigree that would look good 50 years ago. Completely free of any Neararctic and Native Dancer and the inbreeding is back to Gainsborough, Pharos, and Phalaris all top stallions from the early 1900's. For those that use the the term outcross Mizzen Mast is almost a complete outcross on most modern Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector laden pedigrees. I will look into the crystal ball and say that Mizzen Mast has a bright future as a broodmare sire. He is a stunning animal and was a brilliant racehorse I am cheerin for Z Dager now just to see more Mizzen Mast's get bred.

Blenheim
02-22-2012, 01:44 PM
I read and reread your work and the articles at the links and found the XFactor (XF) stuff rather fascinating.
~
Just for the fun of it I took a look at the four stallions, Princequillo, War Admiral, Blue Larkspur and Mahmoud, in the pedigrees of El Padrino and Z Dager. I found a total of 30 incidences in the lineage of El Padrino and 12 incidences in the lineage of Z Dager. Now I'm no pedigree expert, but I do understand that in order to pass on the XF, that stallion must be in a "passing position." If you have the time, put your pedigree eye on those two and tell me what you think. Do either of those two runners possess the XF? :cool:


It was fun to get away from the handicapping stuff and take a look at the pedigree stuff. If you have the time take at look at those two and tell me what you think, yea :ThmbUp: or nea :ThmbDown:, X or nonX. Now back to the handicappin!

Nothin like the Derby Trail. Lookin' forward to the Risen Star and the Fountain of Youth!

turninforhome10
02-22-2012, 06:23 PM
I read and reread your work and the articles at the links and found the XFactor (XF) stuff rather fascinating.
~
Just for the fun of it I took a look at the four stallions, Princequillo, War Admiral, Blue Larkspur and Mahmoud, in the pedigrees of El Padrino and Z Dager. I found a total of 30 incidences in the lineage of El Padrino and 12 incidences in the lineage of Z Dager. Now I'm no pedigree expert, but I do understand that in order to pass on the XF, that stallion must be in a "passing position." If you have the time, put your pedigree eye on those two and tell me what you think. Do either of those two runners possess the XF? :cool:


It was fun to get away from the handicapping stuff and take a look at the pedigree stuff. If you have the time take at look at those two and tell me what you think, yea :ThmbUp: or nea :ThmbDown:, X or nonX. Now back to the handicappin!

Nothin like the Derby Trail. Lookin' forward to the Risen Star and the Fountain of Youth!

I started putting the 6 generation pedigrees with the x trail built in. With the boys the stallion is discounted and only the dam is looked at. The names that are underlined are x trails in passing position. After looking I stand corrected
Here are the x trails I have so far. When I look at the x factor on the bottom I then look at the 2nd quarter to see if the x factor genes are either inbred, linebred or replicated. So If you look at Alpha say look at his x trail then look at Beranrdini's dam to see how the lines compare. I also look more at building a family tree from the 5th dam and look at how the sire line has crossed on the family itself. I feel that saying such and such a stallion crosses well on this such broodmare line discounts the quality of the family in general. Lets face it and I have been thinking about this, pedigree is only as good as the people taking care of the horse. I think so much of the success of the big three foundation mare sires had a lot to do with nuture. Huge sprawling farms where yearlings built themselves up running with their peers fo equal quality of pedigree. Old timey horsemanship vs hot house yearlings. I digress HAving tried to dowmload the reports the x factor is propiertary to my software and cannot be reproduced but when you go to pedigree query just look at those lines that are pink.
Follow the dam and look for the underlined pedigrees. And you dont have to count occurences if you look at the pedigree analysis. It is broken down by percent inhererit inheritances and the 7m would mean 7th genreation male.
Hope this helps.

Pell Mell
02-22-2012, 08:11 PM
Will break down top contenders for the big races as individuals (it is much easier to put in attachments. Since El Padrino is the buzz horse lets look at him
Ell Padrino - By Pulpit out of Enchanted Rock by Giant's Causeway
Bred by the good breeder Emory Hamilton (" Other top horses raced include Too Chic, Queena's dam; La Reina and Serra Lake ... Other notable horses bred include Cappuchino, Pin Stripe and Coal Play ... Purchased her first horse – Too Chic – as a yearling at a King Ranch dispersal in 1980 following the death of her grandfather in 1974 ... She paid $100,000 for the filly ... Both Too Chic and Queena won the G1 Maskette ... Another of Too Chic's daughters, G1 winner Chic Shirine, produced G2 winners Waldoboro and Tara Roma"). Wondering why Hamilton sold this one? Pletcher got a deal? Well the dam Enchanted Rock was unplaced in 1 start and looks to be the weaker of her sisters. El Padrino is first foal to make the races and I imagine dams stock has went up immensely.
Pulpit looks to be forming his own branch of the AP Indy line. What I have noticed about the Pulpits is that they perform well early on in the TC trail but yet to find one with the moxie to wear the roses. IMHO prone to leg problems as their sheer speed may be more than their body can handle. Pulpit himself locked like an early Derby winner before getting missing the big bance. Maybe the line is jinxed but I feel is has to do with being early matures and being asked to much to soon.
El Padrino won his last race impressively to the highly regarded Take Charge Indy. After that horse he beat no one. His Beyer was one of the best of the year though for this crop.
Pro's- Is peaking at the right time to make this class move. Has right connections and Castellano ships for this. While I think this horse will move forward today, he is going to be pushed to make the graded earnings list. A win today and huge effort is necessary to move towards Louisville. How he will handle the pressure of a new track, better horses and that long stretch at the FG are really the gamble here. The horse is talented and looks to have a bright future
Cons- Call me crazy but I don't like the fact that Emory sold this one. Mare is light on race record and while family is one of the better at producing fillies that run The best male runner is Soaring Empire and his record while good is a notch below his peers and his record for putting back to back races is bad.
Looking at his pedigree he is light on solid and professional influences. I am also not a big fan of inbreeding to Mr Prospector so close. If El Padrino turns out on the left front leg then he is a real Mr Prospector and while brilliant they just don't last.
Synopsis- I like his chances to run a big race, but will find out his true mettle when faced with the daunting stretch with a rider who is not really known for riding the FG.
Welcome any comments and the opinions are my own based on my own research and correct me if I am wrong please. See my reports below.
Will have more to come

I've been reading your stuff with interest and find it curious that you and I get a lot of the same results through an entirely different process.
As was said in the Sartin book, I reduce everything to it's simplest form. I look at the forest and am not interested in the study of individual trees.

I totally respect your work and the effort put forth but it seems strange that I only glance at a pedigree for a few minutes and decide, my opinion only, what type it is. I may not be the best but I have had a lot of followers for years and a couple of clients that value my opinion for their breeding efforts.

Now the reason I'm posting is that I totally agree with your assessment of EL Padrino. Here are some others with what I call the same type pedigree; Alpha, Currency Swap, Exfactor, Hansen, Hierro, Managed Account and Reveron.

I find that this type can be very good up to 1 1/8 but have never seen one win the Derby or Belmont. They just lack stamina and there's a reason for it in my book but I won't go into it now. Alpha however, has a positive factor that may negate the weakness in these pedigrees and so far has looked good. Whether he can get a classic distance remains to be seen but I feel sure none of the others will.

PS- I also like the old time breeding of Z Dager having seen a few of the oldtimers in there run. I was really surprised to see him as close to the pace as he was last time.

Our problem lies in the fact that most of the prep races are won by brilliant horses that just can't get the derby distance so I often think it's a waste of time to pedigree handicap the preps.

Nice thread you have going. :ThmbUp:

turninforhome10
02-22-2012, 09:02 PM
"Our problem lies in the fact that most of the prep races are won by brilliant horses that just can't get the derby distance so I often think it's a waste of time to pedigree handicap the preps."

Agreed in spades. So much pressure on the young horses built on glass foundations to perform each prep to the highest ability to get to the big dance.
So much of that brilliant blood is hard to keep fit and sound.Hard to get them fit for the distance without worrying about something rattling loose. I also look for soundness as observed by starts for the female families. Seeing horses with 50+ starts in family is always good regardless of class. I feel this has much to do with passing on confrimation.
I will never forget the words of a vet I used to work with. He had the chance to work with Mr Prospector and his offspring while a student. He always said" A Mr Prospector with good confrimation is worthless. All of his best are turned out on the left front and that is the tell"

turninforhome10
02-23-2012, 01:43 PM
"I totally respect your work and the effort put forth but it seems strange that I only glance at a pedigree for a few minutes and decide, my opinion only, what type it is. I may not be the best but I have had a lot of followers for years and a couple of clients that value my opinion for their breeding efforts."

After rereading this and reading your blog, It looks like your knowledge is pretty stout. Trying to understand what you mean by the strange part. Looking at a pedigree for only a few minutes and making a decision comes from years of understanding how the lines are put together. Breeders names etc, understanding age differences between parents to see at what point of the stallions career did the breeding take place. Mares get bred to high dollar stallions for 3 reasons Race record Family or foolish owners with more money than sense. I look back deep into the female line and look at the owners and what they did with it. Would love to see any examples of horses that you have advised on the breeding to see what your ideas are. Thanks for the input.

turninforhome10
02-24-2012, 04:25 AM
I have debated all week on how to present something informative, easy to read, and not to crazy on the pedigree info as to dilute the real horse in question. All while working on a slow 256mb machine that is absolutely killing ever inch of patience I own but my old software and DB are very difficult to move and god forbid I would ever loose it. Enough about that. I am going to break down the races by concentrating on those horses which IMHO have a chance to move forward. On more than one occasion, I have typed in all the horses from the EFW and that is no longer and option as I would rather pay for it.

Lets go racing

Saturday will bring us the Risen Star. Never been a fan of horses that use the FG early preps as a path to the Derby. The Risen Star has not produced a Derby winner using data going back to 1973. Is this relevant to this year? We will see.
$300,000 Risen Star Stakes (gr. II, Race 11, 4:55 p.m.), 3YOs, 1 1/16 Miles
PP. Horse, Jockey, Weight, Trainer
1. Afford (KY), S Bridgmohan, 116, G Geier Homebred for Tafel who won Derby with Sire Street Sense. Liked the long stretch at Haw and showed promise going two turns last time. Dont know if he is of classic quality yet but aspirations are high. Tafel bred dam who was placed at 3. Interesting though is the second dam White Jasmine inbred to the matron Padilla perfectly through x trail. Look at this produce record. Would love a mare like this. http://www.pedigreequery.com/progeny/white+jasmine
This one looks for a N2x later I believe as the rail does not help. Goes as fast and far possible but lacks seasoning.

2. Optimizer (KY), C H Marquez Jr., 116, D W Lukas Lukas with another morning glory Why the rider switch Maybe after getting routed here Lukas will ship to GP for the FLA Derby and have a rider ready to go. (Sarcasm)
3. a-Mr. Bowling (KY), R Albarado, 120, J L Jones I am really having a hard time getting over his pedigree. Poor quality and very short. See below. IMHO this one served the purpose of selling early seasons to Istan, for owner and will be dropping out of contention after this. Watch for him at Delaware later this year. Sorry Larry.
4. Z Dager (KY), S J Sellers, 116, S M Asmussen I have pretty much broken him down earlier in the thread. 116 and jock who's career needs this horse to carry him to Louisville. Should move forward here and I hope Sellers can get this to Churchill.
5. Ted's Folly (OK), R Zimmerman, 120, W L Brown Asking way to much from this guy and squeezing the lemon dry.
6. b-Adena's Chance (FL), R E Eramia, 116, G Dorochenko 3k sale horse has returned for owner but not today
7. b-Hero of Order (KY), J Graham, 116, G Dorochenko See above for same comment
8. El Padrino (KY), J Castellano, 116, T A Pletcher All eyes on this guy as Pletcher has to prove that last was no fluke. See earlier in the thread for info.
Will know more about this one at the 1/8th pole of a long stretch
9. a-Mark Valeski (KY), R Napravnik, 116, J L Jones This might be the sleeper for Larry While his pedigree looks plain on the top Proud Citizen is from the female family of Northern Dancer has produced Proud Spell for Jones and Breton. What impresses me most is the lineage of his female family. A Whitney family that is truly native to America family A1. Goes back to Man o War and Mahmoud through females and the names are the best sires money could buy. Farnsworth were no dummies when they bought the 2 dam See record http://www.pedigreequery.com/progeny/true+to+romeo. This is the first foal bred from the Mr Prospector sire line and 1 to 3 quarter with a 3x4m should not bother soundness. This is Jones Derby horse and the 112 blowout is affirmation that Larry has a sound one that will take the training necessary for this long drive to CD.
10. Shared Property (KY), L R Goncalves, 120, T M Amoss . I just don't see Amoss with a real Derby threat this year. Will look forward to his expertise on TVG
11. Tizanexpense (KY), M Mena, 116, M J Maker 45k buyback is being asked to do a lot here. Did move forward against winners but this is a big jump a would need to overcome post and lack of seasoning. I would look for this guy at TP later with the Tiznow.
a - Brereton C. Jones coupled entry
b - Gennadi & Irina Dorochenko coupled entry

My picks
:1a: :7: :5:
Will try to bust of the other big races as I get time. FOY is huge and almost a spoiler for the Derby. Good Cappin

Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/67554/el-padrino-heads-11-horse-field-in-risen-star#ixzz1nHbdDt6I

turninforhome10
02-24-2012, 04:43 AM
Realized the above is numbered by Post Position not program number. Sorry for the inconvenience.

turninforhome10
02-26-2012, 03:38 AM
The Risen Star went as expected. Was impressed with the grit of the top two as they had their won little match race in the stretch. I see a bright future for Mark Valeski and Larry is just the guy to get him there. El Padrino ran a big race and showed he belongs but I feel he is still second string for Pletcher. I am still having trouble validating anyoone from the LA series as most have done poorly in the Derby. LA Derby next and I expect Mark to be there. Pletchers horse has earnings now and we will see how he juggles this one. Z Dager was pretty much out of contention at the top of the stretch but ran on well for third. Expect him back for the LA Derby as he needs earnings. on to the FOY. Have not followed the horses in the Borderland so would not do it justice.

STAKES
Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. (Grade II)
http://www.equibase.com/images/line.gif Purse $400,000. (Plus $100,000 – FTBOA - FL TB Owner Brdr Assoc Fund). For Three Year Olds. One And One Sixteenth Miles.
P#PPHorseVirtual
StableA/SMedJockeyWgtTrainerM/L
11Neck 'n Neck (KY) (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorseInfo.cfm?refno=8546891&registry=T) 3/CLJ Lezcano (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbJockeyInfo.cfm?eID=108912)116I R Wilkes (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbTrainerInfo.cfm?eID=247740)15/1
22Algorithms (KY) (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorseInfo.cfm?refno=8611843&registry=T) 3/CLJ Castellano (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbJockeyInfo.cfm?eID=57935)120T A Pletcher (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbTrainerInfo.cfm?eID=114342)8/5
33Fort Loudon (FL) (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorseInfo.cfm?refno=8605051&registry=T) 3/CLR Maragh (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbJockeyInfo.cfm?eID=109379)120S I Gold (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbTrainerInfo.cfm?eID=230035)20/1
44Casual Trick (KY) (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorseInfo.cfm?refno=8625330&registry=T) 3/RLC S Nakatani (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbJockeyInfo.cfm?eID=1339)116N P Zito (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbTrainerInfo.cfm?eID=2088)8/1
55Discreet Dancer (FL) (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorseInfo.cfm?refno=8589357&registry=T) 3/CLJ R Velazquez (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbJockeyInfo.cfm?eID=2089)116T A Pletcher (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbTrainerInfo.cfm?eID=114342)3/1
66News Pending (KY) (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorseInfo.cfm?refno=8577177&registry=T) 3/CLK J Desormeaux (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbJockeyInfo.cfm?eID=502)116D L Romans (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbTrainerInfo.cfm?eID=13888)20/1
77Union Rags (KY) (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorseInfo.cfm?refno=8574154&registry=T) 3/CLJ R Leparoux (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbJockeyInfo.cfm?eID=117753)122M R Matz (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbTrainerInfo.cfm?eID=120499)2/1
88Csaba (KY) (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorseInfo.cfm?refno=8573966&registry=T) 3/CLP Lopez (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbJockeyInfo.cfm?eID=127153)116P A Gleaves (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbTrainerInfo.cfm?eID=649)20/1http://www.equibase.com/images/line.gif Owners: 1 - A. Stevens Miles Jr.; 2 - Starlight Racing; 3 - Jacks or Better Farm, Inc.; 4 - Robert V. LaPenta; 5 - E. Paul Robsham Stables, LLC; 6 - Klaravich Stables, Inc. and William H. Lawrence; 7 - Chadds Ford Stable; 8 - Bruce Hollander and Cary Shapoff
http://www.equibase.com/images/line.gif Breeders: 1 - A. Stevens Miles Jr.; 2 - Oakbrook Farm; 3 - Jacks or Better Farm Inc.; 4 - W. S. Farish; 5 - E. Paul Robsham Stable, LLC; 6 - Jayde, Inc; 7 - Phyllis M. Wyeth; 8 - Kenneth L. Ramsey & Sarah K. Ramsey
http://www.equibase.com/images/line.gif Equipment Changes: 1 - Neck 'n Neck - Blinkers On
PPS http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/daleromans_763079.pdf

The road starts her for the highly touted Union Rags, does he have to win? NO Does he need a big effort? YES. Is he going to be challenged? YES This is the toughest oif the preps so far IMHO.
1 Neck n Neck While his finishings have not garnered him but one win he always makes that late run. Not sure what the blinkers are gonna do here but Lezcano has project going here and the horse has been getting better LP figures each race. This looks to be this one's last chance and Wilkes is pulling out all the stops. While Storm Boot shortens him up his deeper family includes Broad Brush, Roberto, and Key To the Mint. I don't like him to fill and exacta but he is deperate for graded earnings and Jose sticks. Exotic chance if the pace is a meltdown.
2Algorithms- Have worked up his pedigree earlier to start the thread. While his race in the Holy Bull was good effort. He made his move early and once passed Hansen he was home free. Will understand his heart a little more today as he does not get such an easy trip. Still has yet to find a bottom and I feel this one is Pletcher's best bet to get another Derby win. Notice I said Pletcher's best chance. Should run big today and will need to look someone in the eye at the 1/8th and pass them to prove he has moxie as he has talent.
3) Fort Loudon- Gold is pushing it with this one. He is a nice animal but what do you do with him. Does he belong. IMHO no. But he is three and is a male so connections take thier best shot. Would look for FLA breds later at Calder. Beat Argentine Tangotwice and that one was soundly beaten again the other day.
4) Casual Trick- Johhny V is gone and throw out last. Nakatani will ride this one aggressive and Zito has him cranked up. Do or Die and has stout pedigree with Manilla and Charlottesville in female line. Will look to hang on for a piece but running style is redundant in here and not liking his chances to improve enough for win. Does like a one turn mile but has yet to run a classy one at two turns. GP Derby was good but field was nothing like today. Would look for this one to be a one turn miler.
5) Discreet Dancer-Has done everything right so far all at one turn. Can he stretch out? 1/2 brother to Travelin Man, I say no He is fast as proven by Track Record but is one dimentional IMHO. Female family of AP Indy and Summer Squall and boasts some nice inbreeding including the 1/2 sisters Bold Sequence and Gold Digger. Has the right pedigree but needs to show ability to rate.
6) News Pending. Switches to Kent D after big close on the weeds. Not convinced this one like the dirt as evidenced by his one the lead 2nd at Bel last fall. Raconteur who ran 3rd in that race has turned out to be nice horse but would like to see Rajiv stay to finish teaching this one. Looks like the turf races were teaching races but numbers are a bit low for the win. Chance for exotics with a patient ride.
7) Union Rags. Can he beat these off the shelf? Was his 2yo year for real? Wwill find out today. I have looked at this one earlier in the tread. Horse is working like a monster but he really does not have to be pushed to hard here as he has the earnings. Destroyed Alpha in the Champagne and then made a big run at Hansen only to come up short in the BC JUV. Will need to prove that he has more than a middle move and will need to improve on the LP side. Top 3 finish but does not need to win. Iffy call.
8)Csaba- Thank you Mr Gleaves for helping to fill the race but is way overmatched here. I don't see it happening but takes a shot. Nothing to really recommend on pedigree other than going back to Discovery but Kitten's Joy over War Chant is grass IMHO

My picks
:2: :7: :1:

Comments are always welcome and if you want a horse looked at just yell and I will try and get it out there for you. and good cappin.

redshift1
02-26-2012, 04:04 AM
We are close I've got:

2,5,7

turninforhome10
02-26-2012, 10:21 AM
Algorithms Out of Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth
02/26/2012

HALLANDALE BEACH, FL – Starlight Racing’s Algorithms, the 8-5 favorite in today’s Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth, has been scratched from the race due to a popped splint in his right front leg.

“The colt has been training beautifully,” said trainer Todd Pletcher in a statement. “It’s an unfortunate situation. We’ll monitor him closely and see how he responds.”

turninforhome10
02-26-2012, 10:30 AM
With the defection of Algorithms, I will have to think this dramatically change the chances for Discreet Dancer to pull a wire job.

Popping a splint sucks, requires a lot of attention from your leg man and while most heal with no more problem they are a pain in the a--.
My revised picks
:7: :5: with :4: hanging on for 3rd and :1: 4th.
Good cappin

Blenheim
02-26-2012, 03:10 PM
Looks like the Fountain of Youth is gonna be a good one but I don't think it is gonna be the thriller we saw yesterday in the Risen Star. Guess we'll see.
~
Lot to cover in this post. I’ll try to make it short so I'll get to it. First, turninforhome, you missed the tri by a head bob - them kind are pretty tough to lose - good cappin'; redshift1 you had the first two, did well yesterday, we'll see what y'all have for em' today. Couple of comments on the race. Nice ride by the jockey of the :1a:, perfect timing and damn near had it - will she be the first woman to win the Kentucky Derby? And El Padrino, all class. If you want to know how good he really is take a look at the top categories in the pace parameters: http://www.chef-de-race.com/pace_parameters/2012_derby_pace_parameters.htm (http://www.chef-de-race.com/pace_parameters/2012_derby_pace_parameters.htm). That one had to take something out of him . . . fortunately he possesses the courage and resilience of youth. Gotta be considered the Derby favorite. It’ll be interesting to see where they run him next, looks like the Louisiana, maybe the Wood.

In the Fountain of Youth, small field so nada excuses. Considering he has annexed the Holy Bull, the Hutcheson and the Risen Star, kinda hard to bet against Mr. Pletcher. Let them say I lived in the time of Todd Pletcher. However, his horse shows a break in his workout pattern - he missed a work between 30 January and 13 February, might not mean much, might mean everything. And Union Rags, don’t think his works indicate he is in this race to win and interviews with the trainer indicate as much. Casual Trick is ranked as an elite two-year-old and stumbled at start in last over a sealed surface. Gets a jock switch and two strong works, same sire line as the winner of the Holy Bull, Hutcheson and the Risen Star. :cool:


:4: :5: :6: :7:
:4: :5: :7: :6:

Best of racin' luck.

Nothin' like the Derby Trail. Lookin' forward to the Fountain of Youth.

turninforhome10
03-06-2012, 02:02 AM
Sorry for the absence as with the nice score at GP in the Pick 4 weekend before last I was getting some things done with some software I picked up (Office). Was moving things into excel and it was time consuming. Anyway back to the matter at hand, Pedigrees and the Derby.
A New Chapter.
Sometimes a moment that would otherwise be meaningless to most, killing time waiting for my daughter and needing a book to read, I stumbled on something that very much will change how I look at pedigrees in the future.
While waiting for my daughter to get changed into her marble playing jammies,I picked up Thoroughbred Champions Top 100 Racehorse of the 20th Century. Read the book enough that is worn and burned into memory, a must have for any race fan. For the very first time I actually noticed the pedigrees of these great animals. I was shocked, dazed and ready to give up everything I thought I knew about analysis of a pedigree.
The Facts
Of the top 100 racehorses of the 20th century only 35 carried any inbreeding\linebreeding through 4 generations. This mean 2/3 of the greatest were an outcross through 4 gens.
Those who produced.
Count Fleet- Inbred Reigh Count 3f,3f x (3x3 on top) Only Sire line to produce 3 generations of KY Derby winners.
Buckpasser- Teddy 3mx3f (La Troienne tail female Teddy mare)
Seattle Slew-Nasrullah 3mx3f
Alydar- Bull Lea x3f,3f Calumet matron mares.
Blue Larkspur- Padua (Mare) 3fx3f linebred tail female
Ruffian- Discovery 3fx4f (tail female). Discovery is tops. What could have been.
Busher- Sweep 3fx4f
Those who failed to reproduce themselves
Gallant Man- Inbred Mah Iran and Mahmoud 3/4 siblings 2fx2m
Sea Biscuit- Rock Sand 3f,2fx
Lady's Secret- Nearco 4mx4m
Spectacular Bid- To Market 3fx3f
Gallant Bloom-See Gallant Man
Affectionately-War Admiral 4fx3f
Lure- Native Dancer 4fx4m
Bewitch- Peter Pan x3f,3f
Bayakoa- Nasullah 4m,4mx4m
Exceller- Nasrullah 3fx3m,3f
Alysheba- Nasrullah 3mx3m

Drawing conclusions from the above data
Not one of those greats that reproduced themselves had any inbreeding to males in the first 4 generations.
Of those that failed to reproduce themselves, the mares outweigh the stallions.
For you pedigree nerds is this not pretty significant in that 2/3 of the top 100 are outcrosses?
Drawing data know for how this effects the Derby and look for trends in the Derby data. Lots to look at and will put the 40 horses listed on the Derby future book through the software and see what we can gather from that.
Any thoughts?

nijinski
03-06-2012, 02:25 AM
I look at mare's like Lady's Secret and I see the pattern of giving up the progeny's chance of carrying on her greatness for the sake of profit.
Most of her female foals or yearlings were sold to Japan . This happened over and over with some of our finest .

turninforhome10
03-06-2012, 02:38 AM
I look at mare's like Lady's Secret and I see the pattern of giving up the progeny's chance of carrying on her greatness for the sake of profit.
Most of her female foals or yearlings were sold to Japan . This happened over and over with some of our finest .
After looking at Lady's Secret's produce record, I had her confused with Genuine Risk. Lady's Secret did have a decent produce record and you are right. Most of the offspring were sold off during the Japanese raids of the late 80's.

nijinski
03-06-2012, 02:49 AM
After looking at Lady's Secret's produce record, I had her confused with Genuine Risk. Lady's Secret did have a decent produce record and you are right. Most of the offspring were sold off during the Japanese raids of the late 80's.
Jenny had an awful go of it in the shed . God Bless the Firestone's for keeping and giving her a happy home.

turninforhome10
03-06-2012, 03:04 AM
Jenny had an awful go of it in the shed . God Bless the Firestone's for keeping and giving her a happy home.
-Without pointing fingers, I wonder how many of the mares that did not reproduce were compromised with steroid use?

nijinski
03-06-2012, 03:17 AM
-Without pointing fingers, I wonder how many of the mares that did not reproduce were compromised with steroid use?
A possibility , we may never know .

turninforhome10
03-06-2012, 04:56 AM
My top 3 list from the top 24
Castaway- Derby Winner over La Troienne female line
Fed Biz- Champion Sire over strong Claiborne family
Liaison- Connections all over here. Baffert unfulfilled with Sire from female family of Real Quiet
The above is based on female family
Looking at dosage next.
Baffert has the strongest hand right now for sure.

turninforhome10
03-06-2012, 03:00 PM
Looking back 50 years to 1962
Findings
Of the 49 winners of the Derby
16 winners have carried inbreeding in the first 4 removes
Foolish Pleasure- Blenhiem
Seattle Slew- Nasrullah
Spectacular Bid- To Market
Alysheba- Nasrullah
Winning Colors-Nasrullah
Unbridled-Aspidistra
Sea Hero- War Admiral
Real Quiet- Dr Fager Raise A Native
Charismatic- Bold Ruler, Somethingroyal
Barbaro- Nashua
Street Sense- Natalma
Big Brown-Northern Dancer,Damascus, Round Table
Mine That Bird- Mr Prospector Northern Dancer
Super Saver- Buckpasser Raise A Native
Animal Kingdom- Lyphard
First thing to notice is that 4 generation is a new phenomena since 1973. Are the lines becoming clogged?

I will now take the time to introduce another pedigree nerd thing called the Lowe family numbers. When you look at pedigrees on pedigreequery you will notice the family numbers following the bottom lines. Explaination link below
http://www.bloodlines.net/TB/Families/FamilyNumbers.htm
While some people dismiss the ideas completely as outdated an limited in value it is still a useful way to classify and organize.
Lets look at 50years of Derby History since 1962

Family Number Wins
1x-La Troeinne 4
Rest of family 1 5
2 4
3 3
4 2
5 1
6 1
8 1
9 1
10 1
11 1
13 1
14 1
16 2
17 1
20 1
22 1
23 3
A4 1


Thank you ER Bradley for having the foresight to import La Troienne as her line is the leader by far. http://www.bloodlines.net/TB/Families/Family1x.htm
As far as the Lowe theory it seems as though the results are right there.
Any thoughts?

turninforhome10
03-06-2012, 04:13 PM
[QUOTE=turninforhome10]Family Number Wins
1x-La Troeinne 4
Rest of family 1 5
2 4
3 3
4 2
5 1
6 1
8 1
9 1
10 1
11 1
13 1
14 1
16 2
17 1
20 1
22 1
23 3
A4 1
[QUOTE]
Revised after integrity check
Family Wins
1 12
2 5
3 4
4 5
5 2
6 1
8 1
9 2
10 1
11 1
13 2
14 1
16 3
17 1
20 2
22 1
23 4
A4 2
A1 1
= 49 years thought the math looked bad. Sorry for any confusion.

turninforhome10
03-06-2012, 06:32 PM
Just noticed that more than 50% of the winners come from the first 4 families.

turninforhome10
03-06-2012, 11:25 PM
Alpha-14
Battle Hardened-4
Castaway-1x
Creative Cause-1
Discreet Dancer-3
El Padrino-13
Empire Way-20
Ever So Lucky-7 Have not won in 50 years (I like the horse but am also a Cubs fan)
Fed Biz-2
Gemologist-10
Hansen-22
I'll Have Another-23
Liaison-9 Triple Reines de Course in tail female
Longview Drive-8
Midnight Transfer-10
Rousing Sermon-7
Sabrecat-1x La Trioenne
Union Rags-13
Mark Valeshki-A1
Z Dager-14

Any wagers on family numbers?

Bennie
03-07-2012, 06:35 PM
Took Empire Way in pool#1 at 33-1 and again in pool #2 at 37-1, hoping now the wraps are off and he will continue to develop with added distance. Also grabbed Hansen in pool#1 at 26-1 based on word the blinkers were coming off his next race and hoping he would not be quite as headstrong. Caught him at the right time with his loss to Algorithms and the timing of pool#1 and his race schedule. He would have to do a complete swan dive in his next race to get any where near 26-1. Couldn't pass those odds up. Also, wanted better odds but took a flyer on Alpha in pool#2 at 18-1. Don't like the layoff until the Wood but has 2 races this year and I think enough graded earnings to almost guarantee a spot come the first Saturday in May. Will probably sit out pool#3 unless something dramatic happens. Like the Union Rags race but too short on odds and will probably get close to that for the Derby. Will wait for that one.
Looking forward to your posts on up coming races. Good luck.

turninforhome10
03-09-2012, 01:11 AM
Took Empire Way in pool#1 at 33-1 and again in pool #2 at 37-1, hoping now the wraps are off and he will continue to develop with added distance. Also grabbed Hansen in pool#1 at 26-1 based on word the blinkers were coming off his next race and hoping he would not be quite as headstrong. Caught him at the right time with his loss to Algorithms and the timing of pool#1 and his race schedule. He would have to do a complete swan dive in his next race to get any where near 26-1. Couldn't pass those odds up. Also, wanted better odds but took a flyer on Alpha in pool#2 at 18-1. Don't like the layoff until the Wood but has 2 races this year and I think enough graded earnings to almost guarantee a spot come the first Saturday in May. Will probably sit out pool#3 unless something dramatic happens. Like the Union Rags race but too short on odds and will probably get close to that for the Derby. Will wait for that one.
Looking forward to your posts on up coming races. Good luck.
Should make the rest of the races fun as you have some good odds on some nice horses.

turninforhome10
03-09-2012, 12:53 PM
On Sat the Best of the West will square off in the last big SA prep en route to the SA Derby and a shot at the Roses. As of the writing of this there are 10 entrants form the 139 early bird entered on DEC 22 2011 for the SA Derby series.. This race promises to answer a lot of questions but the questions it presents are making for one tough race to handicap. Horses in all phases of form and experience levels promise to make this a good betting race for those who get it right. I just have to think that someone from this race will be 10-1 or less on the first Saturday in May. Very deep field but we will try to get to the bottom of a few.
First thing I notice is Bejarano sticks with Bodemeister. Watch his maiden win and it make sense. In hand the whole way and drew off. Uncertain of the quality of field but was an impressive race. Was blowing pretty hard in the winners circle and started with blinks but if he moves forward he is gonna be a force to be reckoned with. Talk about a female line. Nothing but the best Storm Cat, AP Indy, Roberto and Nijinsky II back to Windfields Habitat. Very stout dosage see below. Family number 1 4 occurrences of Somethingroyal and highest quality rating of pedigrees examined this year. Is he the real deal, nothing lacking in pedigree.
Curious about Blingo. Sherrieffs has the know how to get one to the Derby as evidenced by Giacomo and his 2yo races showed a late running closer type. So what's up with the works. Horse is training like a monster at Hollywood and a 6 fur bullet will get anyone's attention. What they have planned for Sat will be interesting. Horse is bred to run all day and the works show he has some speed. Wildcard for the SA Derby.
Musical jockeys with the Midnight Transfer, Tiz Point, Liason, and Empire Way, which leads me to Creative Cause. Rosario stays after running 3rd in a very speedy San Vincente. Was no reason to push him that day and two turns is his MO. Graded earnings no problem so just needs an honest effort to move forward to SA Derby. Rosario has to be hungry for roses and Harrington has tightened the screws with the 46 blowout signaling readiness.
Wish I had more time to break this down but work calls

I like
Creative Cause
Bodemeister
Blingo running late.
We seperate the men from the boys in this one.

turninforhome10
03-09-2012, 01:36 PM
See below

turninforhome10
03-10-2012, 12:52 AM
As we get closer to the Run for the Roses thought a little insight from my hero might inspire some good decision making
Enjoy
http://colinsghost.org/wp-content/uploads/maxims/Maxims_of_Pitt_Phil_Chapter_04.pdf

turninforhome10
03-17-2012, 12:33 PM
Oaklawn has been a hotbed for good 3yo's since Smarty Jones swept the series and went on to Derby glory. The Rebel Stakes today hope to be a springboard to the Ark Derby and a chance to wear the roses. Horses that have won the Rebel and went on to classic glory include Sunnys Halo- Derby, Temperance Hill, Victory Gallup-Belmont Stakes, Pine Bluff, Lookin at Lucky- Preakness
Could todays rendition prove to be a stepping stone to classic greatness
Let's break it down
My contenders

Race Summary
95 Secret Circle- Same WOP as Southwest- Go to the front and improve your position. Will he get 11/16 with the same force as mile is question "Short stretch of the mile run" Moving forward here puts him 5/2 or less for ARK Derby. Pedigree is complete outcross for 5 gens and dosage is perfect for speed that can last. Very deep historical female line notice the deep Fair Play/Rock Sand cross indicating Belmont breeding.
102 Atigun- Long shot was has been handled kindly by Mcpeek. Owns nice runs at CD from last year. Last out was nice and should serve as good tightner. Needs a hot pace but that seems to be what looks evident. Female lines go back to Secretariat's close relative Speedwell and I have read somewhere that the large heart genes come from Impeatrice(Need more info) . Needs to jump up big but IMHO is gonna breakout today.
99 Jake Mo- Hard trying horse that is IMHO an underlay at 20-1. Done nothing wrong and Berry is good pilot Working class pedigree is same female line as Secret Circle and doubles Buckpasser on bottom. Curious as to how he came to be Dark bay or brown with a grey dad and Ch\gr carrying mom?
89 Najjaar - Longshot is very stoutly bred and last was a Borel special. I am not certain he looks for the big one here but certainly could go on the radar with a big effort here for stout connections.

:8:/ :6: :9: :11:
Happy cappin.

Blenheim
03-17-2012, 10:16 PM
Congratulations on pickin' the first two in the San Felipe and nice winner in the Rebel today, good cappin'! And thanks for postin' those numbers I had mixed up over there, I'm needin' some work on that. Anyways, I've been havin' the time of my life at the track the past couple of weeks . . .
~
I was readin' the latest Bloodhorse magazine and thought I might ask for your thoughts on their article titled: A.P. Indy Line Enjoys Rewarding Day. A few notes from that article:

March 3 was a big day for pensioned Lane's End Farm Stallion A.P. Indy as two of his male-line descendants won grade I stakes and two others captured grade II events. Making the achievement even more noteworthy was that three of the winners were produced from Storm Cat-line mares . . . The combination of A.P. Indy and Storm Cat in a pedigree results in a pedigree resulting in an inbreeding to Triple Crown winner Secretariat, who is the broodmare sire of both . . . Eden's Moon, who is by A.P. Indy's son Malibu Moon, won the March 3 Las Virgenes Stakes (g.I) . . . Hansen, by A.P. Indy's grandson Tapit (by Pulpit) won the Gotham Stakes (g. II) . . . It's Tricky, an A.P. Indy granddaughter, was a grade II winner on the Gotham under card . . . A.P. Indy's top male-line stakes winner March 3 doesn't have Storm Cat in his pedigree, but that hardly seemed to matter. Ron the Greek, by A.P. Indy's son Full Mandate out of the Fortunate Prospect mare Flambe', won the $ 750,000 Santa Anita Handicap (g. I) .
~
G II Risen Star winner El Padrino has the same blood lines and when you get the chance, take a look at the pedigree of the g. II Tampa Bay Derby winner Prospective! :lol:. No doubt and as you have written . . . pedigree matters and pedigree analysis along this Derby Trail has proven be an interesting and profitable handicapping tool. I'd like to read more about it.

What are your thoughts, if any, on the blood line combination mentioned in the article above?

Nothin' like this Derby Trail . . .

turninforhome10
03-19-2012, 03:13 AM
I took a look at all the graded stakes in NA this year so far. As of last weekend there have been 80 graded stakes. The breakdown for AP Indy Storm Cat and Secretariat are as follows
Storm Cat has been in 24 stakes winners
Ap Indy has been in 13 stakes winners
Secretariat by himself has appeared in 10
This means that Big Red has been in 57 of the 80 stakes winners almost 60 percent.
The horses with both AP Indy and Storm Cat are
Hansen
It's Tricky
Eden's Moon
Thundering Moccasin


Pretty stealthy and I am sure this will do nothing but rise :ThmbUp:

turninforhome10
03-19-2012, 11:11 AM
Here is what Ap Indy over Storm Cat looks like. When looking at the Graded Stakes winners it appears that AP Indy as a sire line is doing better than AP Indy as brood mare sire line. I am wondering if this might be attributed to the time of year or just a higher number of Storm Cat mares. Trying to look up data on a retired stallion is hard to do.
Did find something quite interesting at Chef-De-Race.com
Ap Indy Sire vs Broodmare sire Aptitudinal influence
Sire Awd- 8.77
BS AWD-8.25
Storm Cat Sire vs Broodmare Sire Aptitudinal influence
Sire Awd 7.85
BS Awd-8.28

Results are flipped between stallions.
Can I make something of this?

Blenheim
03-19-2012, 11:53 AM
Thanks turninforhome for doin' a little research. That 60% number calls for a little bit more research and I'm all in on this one. This should be fun.
~
I was at the track Saturday, twas' a great day. I think I might have spotted a few weaknesses in the system, so I took a look at a few past performances Saturday night, headed back to the track Sunday - lost two, won one. I was sittin' there the table with this one other fella' and I asked to borrow the DRF. As you know, I don't use the DRF, but it was worth a look. Searched Gulfstream Park race seven and as there could be no other way . . . hoss' number one was named Believe in A.P. Indy (A.P. Indy/Seattle Slew), he won the race at short odds. If that wasn't enough, I searched further and found Gulfstream Park race ten number seven, Tapitsfly (Tapit/Pulpit/A.P.Indy/Seattle Slew), he won the race at 5/1 :lol: I'm a believer in A.P Indy and I can't forget to mention Raconteur (A.P. Indy/Seattle Slew) won the Private Term Stakes at Laurel Park on Saturday – whew!

I think there might be somethin' goin' on here with this pedigree stuff and I'm pleased to share what I think I've learned as it makes the great game that much more exciting. I'm gonna shoot you a message later on this evenin’ with regards to your additional research as I have some stuff that might be helpful. Once again, thanks again for doin' the research you've done. :ThmbUp:

Nothin' like this Derby Trail.

MNslappy
03-19-2012, 01:05 PM
this thread is fascinating

thanks guys!

turninforhome10
03-19-2012, 02:02 PM
this thread is fascinating

thanks guys!
Your from Owatonna. I used to spend summer at Lake Roberds in Fairbuilt. I think we used to eat at restaurant in Owatonna Benjamin Franklins or somethin like that . Good memories and love Minn as tourist destination. Canterbury is very attractive with the Mall of America and the amusement park in Shakopee and I believe the sights at Lake Minnetonka ( I think thats right) are awesome.
Thanks for the compliments and am enjoying the research.

Blenheim
03-19-2012, 08:45 PM
I don't want my post in this great thread to be misleading or suggest that the Holy Grail of handicapping has been discovered in the bloodlines of a particular sire, it hasn't. I've wagered on quite a few other APs in the past couple of weeks and guarantee you, some of em' finished up the track and a few didn't even get a call. The APs that did win were chosen after a systematic handicapping process covering the Ainslie fundamentals: distance, class, condition, dosage, bias, pace, speed, jock, weight and let there be no doubt, those APs won with a little bit of racin' luck. So the Holy Grail of Handicappin' is still out there . . . so is the Fountain of Youth.

~

Turninforhome,

I'm gonna be givin' this pedigree thing a little bit more thought and seein' that I'm kinda new at this pedigree stuff, I'm figurin' I'll be needin' some time to sort them thoughts out, go over the data once or twice and again . . . give them articles another read or two. Give me a couple of days or so and I'll get back with you. Nevernonetheless, and between now and then, I'll be keepin' a sharp eye out for them APs. :cool:

MNslappy
03-19-2012, 10:42 PM
Your from Owatonna. I used to spend summer at Lake Roberds in Fairbuilt. I think we used to eat at restaurant in Owatonna Benjamin Franklins or somethin like that . Good memories and love Minn as tourist destination. Canterbury is very attractive with the Mall of America and the amusement park in Shakopee and I believe the sights at Lake Minnetonka ( I think thats right) are awesome.
Thanks for the compliments and am enjoying the research.

Wow, what a small world. Roberds is actually one of the few lakes around here that I haven't fished yet. We moved down here about 5 years ago from the Twin Cities, and there are so many tiny lakes around the area I'm still trying to run through the list. Probably take me another 10 years to hit them all.

You're right, CBY is a great little track to visit. Especially on a Thursday or Friday night. Definitely not your typical horse racing crowd, it's pretty young and sexy and loud and excited. Too bad their meet has been going downhill lately. And it looks like MN is NOT going to get into the racino game. Lot of rumblings lately about whether CBY and Running Aces will be able to make it long term without slots.

Hey I can't contribute much here because I'm decidedly lacking in pedigree knowledge, but I wanted to make sure you knew people are reading it and trying to learn a thing or two.

turninforhome10
03-21-2012, 12:27 AM
Contenders That Have Worked Out
Creative Cause Hollywood Park Five Furlongs 59:80
Daddy Nose Best Santa Anita Park Four Furlongs 49:80
Liaison Santa Anita Park Five Furlongs 1.01:60
Mark Valeski Fair Grounds Five Furlongs 59:40

turninforhome10
03-21-2012, 02:49 AM
2012 Kentucky Derby contenders ranked by graded stakes earnings as of 03/18/2012 Bold horses are those who IMHO have the best chances of making it Louisville Comments are welcome.
Rank Horse Trainer Earnings
1 Hansen Michael Maker $1,400,000
2 Union Rags Michael Matz $1,070,000
3 Creative Cause Mike Harrington $686,000
4 Sabercat Steve Asmussen $601,429
5 Wrote (IRE) Aidan O’Brien $556,630
6 Secret Circle Bob Baffert $470,000
7 Dullahan Dale Romans $405,000
8 Liaison Bob Baffert $393,000
9 Prospective Mark Casse $365,452
10 On Fire Baby (f) Gary Hartlage $286,729
11 El Padrino Todd Pletcher $200,000
12 Optimizer D. Wayne Lukas $181,375
13 Alpha Kiaran McLaughlin $180,000
14 Trinniberg* Bisnath Parboo $174,500
15 Rousing Sermon Jerry Hollendorfer $170,000
16 I’ll Have Another Doug O’Neill $151,000
17 Castaway Bob Baffert $150,000
17 Currency Swap Teresa Pompay $150,000
19 Daddy Nose Best Steve Asmussen $145,558
20 My Adonis Kelly Breen $130,000
21 Battle Hardened Eddie Kenneally $127,000
22 Brother Francis James Cassidy $120,000
23 Mr. Bowling Larry Jones $115,848
24 Lucky Chappy (IRE) Graham Motion $115,000
25 Jack’s In The Deck Robin Graham $105,000
26 Gemologist Todd Pletcher $103,855
27 Longview Drive Jerry Hollendorfer $102,834
28 Scatman Michael Lauer $100,000
29 Fly Lexis Fly Arturo Morales $99,481
30 Take Charge Indy Patrick Byrne $98,400
31 Daddy Long Legs Aidan O’Brien $94,030
32 State of Play Graham Motion $90,000
32 Howe Great Graham Motion $90,000
34 Zip Top (IRE) James Bolger $85,244
35 Empire Way Mike Harrington $85,000
35 Jake Mo* Allen Milligan $85,000
37 News Pending Dale Romans $80,000
38 Shared Property Thomas Amoss $79,700
39 Motor City Ian Wilkes $78,383
40 Golden Ticket* Kenneth McPeek $70,000
41 Z Dager Steve Asmussen $65,000
42 Power World Bill Mott $61,354
43 Mark Valeski Larry Jones $60,000
43 Bodemeister Bob Baffert $60,000
45 Midnight Transfer Carla Gaines $36,000

turninforhome10
03-21-2012, 11:27 AM
Well since we have to have convictions to play this game , I am going out on limb here and declaring my Derby horse. The horse that has sparked my attention and is getting good at the right time (from Blood Horse)
"I’ll Have Another—who cost just $11,000 as a Keeneland September yearling and $35,000 at the OBS Spring Sale of 2-year-olds in training sale—is by Flower Alley out of a mare by Arch , both being horses who reached their peak over a distance of ground late in their three-year-old career".

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/67376/ill-have-another-a-surprise-no-more (see article) about pedigree.
Stamina laden, winner at 2 and is training out of his skin right now
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/news/2012/03/03/ill-have-another-blitzes-six-furlongs-110
He has a good friend helping him with his training
" Taking to the fast main track after Saturday's 7TH race, the Doug O'Neill sophomore was accompanied by the stable's $5.2 million lead pony, Lava Man, who was basking back in the limelight"
Jockey is unknown in the states, but a hero at Hastings being a leading rider
and they don't call him "Marvelous Mario" for nothing.
Reddam is due a Derby winner and this could be the one.
O'Neill is due and this horse has done nothing but love the game.
From a pedigree standpoint I'll Have Another has all the things I look for.
A classic winning sire Flower Alley. Notice the inbreeding to Goofed (dam of Lyphard) a female family full of stoutness. Flower Alley has the makings of a top class sire. I'll Have Another has everything on the bottom side. Triple of Princequillo, tail female to Mahmoud and love the Sea Bird( one of the highest timeform ratings ever) Here is a blast from the past
[YT="Sea Bird"]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXaWeZLmlC4/YT]

turninforhome10
03-21-2012, 01:45 PM
3rd at AQU 03212012
:3: Grandauaghter Toussad
:4: Daughter of Riboletta

Give me Nebraska last was good effort and should move forward with the big track Mentioned her earlier in the thread and we will follow the highlighted pedigrees.

turninforhome10
03-21-2012, 02:01 PM
Good effort by the top 3 in the 3rd at AQ Nebraska was overestimated but have a strange feeling Belmont with outside post is where she will break maiden.

Blenheim
03-21-2012, 08:31 PM
Well since we have to have convictions to play this game , I am going out on limb here and declaring my Derby horse. The horse that has sparked my attention and is getting good at the right time (from Blood Horse)
"I’ll Have Another—who cost just $11,000 as a Keeneland September yearling and $35,000 at the OBS Spring Sale of 2-year-olds in training sale—is by Flower Alley out of a mare by Arch , both being horses who reached their peak over a distance of ground late in their three-year-old career".

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/67376/ill-have-another-a-surprise-no-more (see article) about pedigree.
Stamina laden, winner at 2 and is training out of his skin right now
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/news/2012/03/03/ill-have-another-blitzes-six-furlongs-110
He has a good friend helping him with his training
" Taking to the fast main track after Saturday's 7TH race, the Doug O'Neill sophomore was accompanied by the stable's $5.2 million lead pony, Lava Man, who was basking back in the limelight"
Jockey is unknown in the states, but a hero at Hastings being a leading rider
and they don't call him "Marvelous Mario" for nothing.
Reddam is due a Derby winner and this could be the one.
O'Neill is due and this horse has done nothing but love the game.
From a pedigree standpoint I'll Have Another has all the things I look for.
A classic winning sire Flower Alley. Notice the inbreeding to Goofed (dam of Lyphard) a female family full of stoutness. Flower Alley has the makings of a top class sire. I'll Have Another has everything on the bottom side. Triple of Princequillo, tail female to Mahmoud and love the Sea Bird( one of the highest timeform ratings ever) Here is a blast from the past
[YT="Sea Bird"]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXaWeZLmlC4/YT]

I wish I'll Have Another well and best of racing luck. Hopefully he'll be right next to El Padrino in the starting game come the Big Dance.

~

Talk to me about the workout scheduling of this horse. He won the Robert B Lewis on 2/4 - how many workouts has he had since then? How many workouts do you think he'll need? I saw on your Graded Earnings List he is at number 16, is he gonna make the cut? I understand there are some pretty good ones going in the SA Derby - Bodiemeister and Creative Cause come to mind. If he gets spanked in the SA Derby . . . is that it? If he gets spanked in the SA Derby, then what? Are they goin' all in with the SA Derby against some of the best horses on the west coast? Sure askin' an awful lot, particularly considering he will not have raced for over two months. Don't know what to think about that long layoff . . . thinkin' they should have run him in one more before the SA Derby. What are your thoughts on the scheduling of this horse? :rolleyes:

turninforhome10
03-21-2012, 09:20 PM
'll Have Another smoothly glided into stride on the backstretch and traveled conspicuously well through an opening quarter in :24. Rounding the far turn, the gleaming chestnut kept gaining momentum. Gutierrez gave him a very gentle cue with the reins at the head of the stretch, and I'll Have Another continued to roll under his own power. He steamed through a half in :47 and five furlongs in :58 1/5 en route to finishing his impressive drill.

Nuff said for me

turninforhome10
03-21-2012, 11:54 PM
A showdown in New Mexico on Sunday in the Sunland Park Derby
Big pot will surely guarantee a berth in the Ky Derby
Link to Past Performances
http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/toddpletcher_816814.pdf
The award for the strongest Rasmussen factor pedigree going this year for a 3yo has got to Stirred Up. Wow see below. If this horse pops a classic win sometime this summer, the sky is the limit for breeding potential.

turninforhome10
03-22-2012, 12:53 AM
Just realized I had left out El Padrino and Optimizer. They both should be included as those as probable starters in the Ky Derby

Blenheim
03-22-2012, 07:20 AM
'll Have Another smoothly glided into stride on the backstretch and traveled conspicuously well through an opening quarter in :24. Rounding the far turn, the gleaming chestnut kept gaining momentum. Gutierrez gave him a very gentle cue with the reins at the head of the stretch, and I'll Have Another continued to roll under his own power. He steamed through a half in :47 and five furlongs in :58 1/5 en route to finishing his impressive drill.

Nuff said for me

Bloodhorse article provided the the Administrator here, thanks. Trainer is happy about his progress since the Lewis. Sharp 7f work, looks like he is doin' good, real good . . .

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/68253/oneill-pumped-by-ill-have-anothers-work?

turninforhome10
03-22-2012, 11:58 AM
Hey Blenheim
If you like AP INDY look at Stirred Up

turninforhome10
03-22-2012, 12:12 PM
Blood Horse has some info on the LA Derby
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/68258/nine-probables-likely-for-louisiana-derby
Is Alpha looking for a soft spot? How will Discreet Dancer handle the long stretch? Is the former 10k MCL for real?

PPS from the stakes book at Equibase
http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=SNPP-FG-20120401-506507

turninforhome10
03-25-2012, 03:28 PM
All eyes on New Mexico. Near as I can tell we got 60% of 800k going to the winner. 5k to run. Hard to deny the race has become another conduit for graded earnings.


:2: Ender Kneivel switched over the winter from Rusty Arnold to Mr Derby. Second to Thunder Moccasin in the nice maiden race that also produced the classy Panthera. Either Pletcher pegged this race for this one after maiden win or horse is being pushed to get graded earnings. Trainer switch is first question. Impatient owners? Horse is dropping into to the deep end of the pool after maiden wire job. Pedigree says go but has to have perfect trip against track that does not like inside speed and will have buddies on the lead with him including his California neighbor Castaway. Two turn firster and last was over at the 16th. That won't happen today.

:1: Castaway- Gunned from the lead and hung on bravely in the Southwest. Showed guts and courage and was ridden with confidence by the returning pilot. Connections have been here before but I don't remember them being together. The last 16th is where we find out if the last race was over the top or he can put away any doubt he will run for the Roses.
:3: Stirred Up- Without a doubt one of the finest bred horses in the female department Last race was a big step forward as this one looks to need some seasoning as was a little lost when getting lead in last. Looks like the light came on. Mr Baffert asks this one the big question today and the sky is the limit. Could get absolute dream trip with both speed horses inside and the rail being wide open. Garcia needs to be turning for home about 2 or 3 out of it about 3 or 4 wide and pop the cork. Like his chances to run well. Baffert might have this one timed out perfectly. Would not be surprised to see this guys names in pedigrees some day. Like all aspects of this guy for classic potential.

:6: Daddy Nose Best- One big strike is the lack of dirt experience. Like everything else and Julian comes with horse. If we get a freak thunderstorm that drops buckets of rain maybe. But I will tab this as a learning experience and let him beat me. Assmussen needs to cap this as his bullets are dwindling compared to Pletcher and Baffet.

:4: Isn't He Clever- Hard trying sort. Gave his guts after showing he wanted the lead down the backside in Borderland. With a patient trip he can get a piece but I fear he get sucked into running with the speed and might not hold off Stirred Up. Feel he is better at a distance a little less than this but is game and deserve the chance to prove his mettle.
Not really concerned about anyone else i here for the win.
My picks
:3: / :1: :4:

turninforhome10
03-25-2012, 04:12 PM
In just my little bit of handicapping at Sunland, rail speed does not fare all that well and in just a small number of races 6 there have been one winners drawn inside the :2: in the second . Races at 9 fur are hard to come buy. Would a alternative be using 1 1\16 data included in a db sort or use a mile and up. Any thoughts?

turninforhome10
03-25-2012, 07:21 PM
In just my little bit of handicapping at Sunland, rail speed does not fare all that well and in just a small number of races 6 there have been one winners drawn inside the :2: in the second . Races at 9 fur are hard to come buy. Would a alternative be using 1 1\16 data included in a db sort or use a mile and up. Any thoughts?

Bafferts filly Princess Arabella is monster. Could Baffert have Oaks Derby Double
http://www.pedigreequery.com/princess+arabella2

turninforhome10
03-27-2012, 03:48 AM
Got some time off this weekend so thought I would pour some extra effort into this weekends preps
Looking first at the LA Derby
PPS
http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/toddpletcher_829589.pdf
Pletcher is in full invasion mode on Sunday,bringing both
Castellano in for
Mission Impazzible and Slow Pace
http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/toddpletcher_829586.pdf
http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/toddpletcher_829587.pdf
and Johnny V for Windsurfer and\or Travelin Man
http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/toddpletcher_829589.pdf
http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/toddpletcher_829585.pdf

He also carries a big gun in the LA Oaks
http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/toddpletcher_827098.pdf

Will have more to come and looking for other free PPS

turninforhome10
03-27-2012, 04:06 AM
Info on the UAE Derby from Horseracingnation.com
http://www.horseracingnation.com/picks/2012_UAE_Derby

redshift1
03-27-2012, 04:17 AM
Info on the UAE Derby from Horseracingnation.com
http://www.horseracingnation.com/picks/2012_UAE_Derby


Lucky Chappy narrowly beaten by Daddy Nose Best who recorded a 100 Beyer on Sunday might be an interesting bet.

turninforhome10
03-27-2012, 11:03 AM
Lucky Chappy narrowly beaten by Daddy Nose Best who recorded a 100 Beyer on Sunday might be an interesting bet.
Was the first thing I noticed after underestimating Daddy Nose Best in the Sunland

Blenheim
03-27-2012, 12:45 PM
turninforhome,

For your information, the links you are listing are not taking us to the past performances, it is taking us to a Brisnet blank page. If you are using horseracing.about.com. where it lists the trainer and the pps, they system won't let you link directly to the past performances - you've got to go through the horseracing.about.com page, to the trainer then to the pps.

turninforhome10
03-27-2012, 12:58 PM
turninforhome,

For your information, the links you are listing are not taking us to the past performances, it is taking us to a Brisnet blank page. If you are using horseracing.about.com. where it lists the trainer and the pps, they system won't let you link directly to the past performances - you've got to go through the horseracing.about.com page, to the trainer then to the pps.
Thanks Blenheim
A link to Pletchers Page might work
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html

turninforhome10
03-27-2012, 12:59 PM
Got some time off this weekend so thought I would pour some extra effort into this weekends preps
Looking first at the LA Derby
PPS
http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/toddpletcher_829589.pdf
Pletcher is in full invasion mode on Sunday,bringing both
Castellano in for
Mission Impazzible and Slow Pace
http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/toddpletcher_829586.pdf
http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/toddpletcher_829587.pdf
and Johnny V for Windsurfer and\or Travelin Man
http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/toddpletcher_829589.pdf
http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/toddpletcher_829585.pdf

He also carries a big gun in the LA Oaks
http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/toddpletcher_827098.pdf

Will have more to come and looking for other free PPS
Disregard due to link problems sorry for the confusion

turninforhome10
03-31-2012, 11:49 PM
Custom Method: Best -
FAIR GROUNDS 04-01-2012 RACE 10 OF 14 - TRACK RATING: 86
9.0f DIRT THREE YEAR OLDS
GRADE II STK/HCP PURSE: $1000000 RACE RATINGS: PRE 80 [/B]
Weighting Factors 2 3 3 0 1 2 1 6
PP Name 130 230 330 430 E30 S1-2 s2-3 s3-4 SCORE
2 FIRE ALARM 24.61 48.99 73.47 100.0 0.00 -1.23 4.62 1.63 5.37
3 WINDSURFER *24.20 48.53 72.98 99.16 39.05 0.77 0.84 0.66 4.30
4 FINNEGANS WAKE 25.29 50.96 72.93 98.69 *100.0 -2.56 *-1.14 2.21 5.22
5 FLASHY SUNRISE 25.74 51.99 74.15 100.5 64.79 *-3.86 2.42 1.61 6.21
6 CIGAR STREET 24.28 *48.17 73.05 97.51 29.93 -0.89 2.20 -0.91 3.50
7 SHARED PROPERTY 25.04 49.46 73.79 99.50 54.17 -2.47 2.11 3.40 6.08
1 MR BOWLING 25.02 49.38 74.11 99.34 36.41 0.62 1.08 1.30 5.74
1A MARK VALESKI 24.68 48.96 73.23 *96.89 67.77 -0.88 0.01 *-1.43 3.47
8 ARM FORCE ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? 10.0
9 COMISKYS HUMOR ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? 10.0
10 Z DAGER 24.84 49.21 73.63 100.8 13.19 -0.54 2.79 0.27 4.96
11 ROUSING SERMON 24.68 49.07 *72.28 97.03 60.99 -0.93 0.78 0.92 4.08
12 HERO OF ORDER 24.62 51.45 73.15 101.8 21.09 -0.36 2.77 2.32 6.03
13 AFFORD 25.20 49.55 73.96 98.41 47.62 -2.77 2.12 0.57 5.03
The number of past races used is 3

[list]
MY TIP SHEET PREDICTIONS (USING ):
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
1A MARK VALESKI 2.0 NAPRAVNIK R. JONES J. L.
6 CIGAR STREET 3.5 BRIDGMOHAN S. MARGOLIS S.
11 ROUSING SERMON 6.0 SMITH M. E. HOLLENDORFER J.
3 WINDSURFER 12.0 VELAZQUEZ J. R. PLETCHER T. A.
10 Z DAGER 8.0 SELLERS S. J. ASMUSSEN S. M.
13 AFFORD 15.0 GRAHAM J. GEIER G.
4 FINNEGANS WAKE 15.0 LANERIE C. J. ROMANS D. L.
2 FIRE ALARM 20.0 MENA M. CALHOUN W. B.
1 MR BOWLING 2.0 ALBARADO R. JONES J. L.
12 HERO OF ORDER 30.0 MARTIN JR. E. DOROCHENKO G.
7 SHARED PROPERTY 10.0 GONCALVES L. R. AMOSS T. M.
5 FLASHY SUNRISE 30.0 MARAGH R. STEWART D.
8 ARM FORCE 20.0 LEPAROUX J. R. HARTY E. G.
9 COMISKYS HUMOR 20.0 ERAMIA R. E. FAUCHEUX R.
Method Success - ROI 1702.58 PCT WGR-1/23 $2 - 31 RACES 03-31-2012

130- Velocity based time estimate for for first call
230- 2nd Call
330- 3rd Call
430- 4th call
E30- Pace energy
S1-2- Groundloss between calls negative is best
S2-3 Same as above for 2-3 calls
S3-4 Same as above for 3-4 calls

Blenheim
04-07-2012, 06:23 PM
Well since we have to have convictions to play this game , I am going out on limb here and declaring my Derby horse. The horse that has sparked my attention and is getting good at the right time (from Blood Horse)
"I’ll Have Another—who cost just $11,000 as a Keeneland September yearling and $35,000 at the OBS Spring Sale of 2-year-olds in training sale—is by Flower Alley out of a mare by Arch , both being horses who reached their peak over a distance of ground late in their three-year-old career".

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/67376/ill-have-another-a-surprise-no-more (see article) about pedigree.
Stamina laden, winner at 2 and is training out of his skin right now
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/news/2012/03/03/ill-have-another-blitzes-six-furlongs-110
He has a good friend helping him with his training
" Taking to the fast main track after Saturday's 7TH race, the Doug O'Neill sophomore was accompanied by the stable's $5.2 million lead pony, Lava Man, who was basking back in the limelight"
Jockey is unknown in the states, but a hero at Hastings being a leading rider
and they don't call him "Marvelous Mario" for nothing.
Reddam is due a Derby winner and this could be the one.
O'Neill is due and this horse has done nothing but love the game.
From a pedigree standpoint I'll Have Another has all the things I look for.
A classic winning sire Flower Alley. Notice the inbreeding to Goofed (dam of Lyphard) a female family full of stoutness. Flower Alley has the makings of a top class sire. I'll Have Another has everything on the bottom side. Triple of Princequillo, tail female to Mahmoud and love the Sea Bird( one of the highest timeform ratings ever) Here is a blast from the past
[YT="Sea Bird"]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXaWeZLmlC4/YT]

Congratulations to the connections of I'll Have Another! And a good fine congratulations to the handicappers who had him to win, nice right fine piece of handicappin' as he won a thriller in the SA Derby. I still think he has some left in the tank . . .

Good pick turninforhome, makes things easier, doesn't it! :lol:

Nothin' like the Derby Trail . . .

turninforhome10
04-07-2012, 08:08 PM
Was very pleased with the 10 dollar win ticket. I had a very good day. I think he still has one in the tank. All the way to Louisville baby.

Blenheim
04-10-2012, 09:48 PM
Got that hankerin' you picked the horse to beat come the Kentucky Derby. Gotta give credit where credit is due, nice piece of handicapping here :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:, fine piece of work.

~

I watched the replay of the SA Derby quite a few times and just can't help but think I'll Have Another was just breezin' most of the way and when the time came, he had the full measure of the horse some consider to be the best in the country in Creative Cause. He even ran wide coming out of the homestretch turn and got right back into it! The jockey used the whip almost reluctantly, only if need be . . . and just enough to get and maintain the narrowest of margins, just enough to win. For all intents and purposes the horse won the race in a hand ride :lol:.

Lookin' forward to watchin' his workout pattern and his odds over the next few weeks and lookin' forward to when that Pletcher horse gets the lead in the Derby and I'll Have Another comes a callin'. That is gonna be a horse race! :cool:

When you get the time I like to read more of your thoughts on the His Majesty strain in the pedigree of I'll Have Another.

Thanks

turninforhome10
04-11-2012, 02:37 AM
Here is my quick guide to looking at pedigrees(on a budget)
First pull up the horses at pedigree query
http://www.pedigreequery.com/ill+have+another2
First I look at sire and answer the questions
1) Is this stallion established, new or what I call "sale" stallion.
Established stallions are those which a breeder would use with a mare that
A) has value because of race record
B) has value because of family
C) has an owner with more money than brains if A and B are not applicable.

An established stallion is one who has already produced high class winners and stands for more than 5k. Exclusivity of the book would be already in place and the syndicate has the right owners with the right mares. Look at Danzig in I'll Have Another. Sweetest Chant and Althea both very high class mares. You did not get a free pass to Danzig.
The sire of I'll Have Another would be a new stallion. Flower Alley was very high class race horse and shows a nice Average Winning Distance (AWD) from 2 crops to race already showing his potential to be a nice sire of stayers. With Flower Alley you get Three Chimneys, Pletcher factor (connection to breeders and probably a comp season), and an outstanding individual. 11k for I'll Have Another seems paltry now.
The sale stallion is one that would be used to sell a mare in foal. Stallion stands for under 7500$ and mare has a couple of foals on the ground. Modest produce record and race record are probable and the breeder will be what I call a sale breeder. Only way to get this knowledge is to read sales results or take good notes. These stallions are usually managed to have numbers with slightly lesser quality mares.

Next I would look at the race record and family of the mare and put a value on her and see if the mating matches on price. Is the mating between stallion and mares of the same ownership? I always pay extra attention when I see Phipps, or Claiborne or the like. Call me old fashioned but when a breeder of note holds on to home bred, I consider the flesh to have been judged. Plus these babies would be out running around with babies of similar class teaching each other to run. These types of horse rank high on my list. The Dam production Index or DPI is listed on the Brisnet Ultimate and the higher the number the better.
Will put so more thought into this and post later.

turninforhome10
04-11-2012, 04:07 AM
Lets look at Keeneland Race 5
Maiden SW 1 1/16 4yo and up
Using the examples of established, new and sale this is what my angle is

Established
:3: Mr Ticket - First starter for millionaire Happy Ticket(RIP). What are ya gonna do here. A lot of sentiment from the owner breeder probably wants to keep this one. Horse will probably get tagged for 30k and under. Forced to run MSW.
:7: Lemansky- In a perfect world a horse with this stout of pedigree would be allowed to start at 4. Bit of a break in the works from May to August, but if a young horse can stay sound training at Penn National then they are tough SOB's. 1/2 brother to the nice winner 221k Missinglisalewis. This is Edward Evans bloodlines and for the life of me can't figure out how the NY breeder came into play. Weird storyline here. New trainer but 1 for 1 with FTS. Farrish over Evans.

New
:6: Never Cross Don't Get made entered stud in 2007 and really has not been that great .

Sale
:5: Karma Shield- Petionville can get you a good horse as evidenced by this ones 2 full brothers. Mare has been bred to Petionville 7 times as Everest stables have used this one to sell babies. 1k for this one as yearling as Mcpeek looked for diamond in the rough. Looks the best on paper but horse has found a way to loose.
:4: Silver Dib- My guess would be that Keith Assmussen bought the mare in foal and delivered the baby in PA to get the riches of PA bred and jumped ship for 7k
Just my opinions.

turninforhome10
04-13-2012, 01:15 AM
Lets look at Keeneland Race 5
Maiden SW 1 1/16 4yo and up
Using the examples of established, new and sale this is what my angle is

Established
:3: Mr Ticket - First starter for millionaire Happy Ticket(RIP). What are ya gonna do here. A lot of sentiment from the owner breeder probably wants to keep this one. Horse will probably get tagged for 30k and under. Forced to run MSW.
:7: Lemansky- In a perfect world a horse with this stout of pedigree would be allowed to start at 4. Bit of a break in the works from May to August, but if a young horse can stay sound training at Penn National then they are tough SOB's. 1/2 brother to the nice winner 221k Missinglisalewis. This is Edward Evans bloodlines and for the life of me can't figure out how the NY breeder came into play. Weird storyline here. New trainer but 1 for 1 with FTS. Farrish over Evans.

New
:6: Never Cross Don't Get made entered stud in 2007 and really has not been that great .

Sale
:5: Karma Shield- Petionville can get you a good horse as evidenced by this ones 2 full brothers. Mare has been bred to Petionville 7 times as Everest stables have used this one to sell babies. 1k for this one as yearling as Mcpeek looked for diamond in the rough. Looks the best on paper but horse has found a way to loose.
:4: Silver Dib- My guess would be that Keith Assmussen bought the mare in foal and delivered the baby in PA to get the riches of PA bred and jumped ship for 7k
Just my opinions.


Results
Distance: One And One Sixteenth Miles On The All Weather Track
Track Condition: Fast
Winning Time: 1:47.03
Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
1 Sir McIntyre Gabriel Saez 6.60 3.40 2.80
2 Thunderous G Manoel R. Cruz 4.40 3.40
4 Silver Dib Anthony Stephen 6.20
Also ran: 7 - Lemansky , 3 - Mr. Ticket , 5 - Karma Shield , 6 - Never Cross


So if you liked the fact that the winner had an owner breeder that has held on to a pretty nice animal that has not missed a paycheck. I figured that Attfield would put one in and break maiden for State bred at Wod, but thinking about it, Wod is open, so it figures that Attfield knew he had one for picture at KEE.
For the exacta, an owner-trainer combo like Rusty Arnold. Think about it. The horse is on Rusty's dime. Would he not run for tag if he had any doubt of the horse's ability.
Not redboarding because I did not like the race, and could not bet the winners.
See and be seen at KEE.

Blenheim
04-13-2012, 02:54 AM
Thanks for sharing your expertise with us along this Derby Trail.

I think I might of learned a thing or two this season and the pedigree stuff has been the most interesting part of it. I ain't quite done with it yet, I'm still learnin' and I've got a couple of pedigree questions for you. No hurry with the answers . . . take your time.

Take a look at this pedigree: http://www.pedigreequery.com/gemologist2 I've been readin' up on this pedigree stuff so correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Gemologist is an outcross/backcross - an outcross bred to the best blood of his dam. From what I've read, when an outcross is reintroduced, it creates hybrid vigor resulting in an offspring as good as or greater than the outcross. The outcross in this case was Tiznow. As a breeder, what are your thoughts and what does your experience tell us about the reintroduction of an outcross? Is it true from your experience that the reintroduced outcross is more vigorous, robust, stronger and more capable?

Take a look at this pedigree: http://www.pedigreequery.com/creative+cause The Man O' War strain is in a different position in this pedigree when compared to Gemologist. What can we learn from the different position of the Man O' War strain in the pedigree of Creative Cause when compared to the pedigree of Gemologist?

I've saved the best for last: http://www.pedigreequery.com/brimstone+island Brimstone Island is running in the Robert Hilton Memorial Stakes this weekend at 8/1. In this pedigree, Tiznow was bred to two different strains through Broad Sound - the Colin strain and the Teddy strain. How would you classify Brimstone Island? The pps for the RH Memorial can be found here: http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm Go to Winstar pps>Tiznow> Brimstone Island.

Thank you

turninforhome10
04-13-2012, 03:41 AM
Looking at Brimstone Island.
Do this
Go to Pedigree
http://www.pedigreequery.com/brimstone+island
Click on Broad Sound
Note the relationship between Battle Joined and Jail Bird Full Siblings
Click on Lovely Thing (5th dam)
Note her sire Alsab
Who is Armageddon's Sire?
What you have here is what I call a closed mare.
The family has been bred back to it's own sire line.
The female family is noteworthy being 13-c hailing from Frizette.
What you have here Blenheim,IMHO is a mare that will produce with a billy goat and would be sought after by a serious breeder.

turninforhome10
04-14-2012, 12:05 AM
Looking at Brimstone Island.
Do this
Go to Pedigree
http://www.pedigreequery.com/brimstone+island
Click on Broad Sound
Note the relationship between Battle Joined and Jail Bird Full Siblings
Sorry the above are 3/4 siblings

turninforhome10
04-15-2012, 06:01 PM
So far this year Triple Crown Trail has been a bit of game of cat and mouse. Horses shifting home bases to run here and there looking for the dollars necessary to secure a spot in the history books. We have seen just about all we are going to see from the contestants barring a bubble birth, late defection, or change of heart.
. Link to Downey Top 64
http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/Derby_Contender_Graded_Earnings

Questions to answer.
1) Who has the heart both figuritivly and with pedigree?
2) Who has something left?
3) Who is gonna get the trip?

Best site I have found for pedigrees of the contenders so far.
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses
The home work is there for sure.

Would give me an ulcer having a horse prepping for this.

iceknight
04-17-2012, 07:37 PM
So far this year Triple Crown Trail has been a bit of game of cat and mouse. Horses shifting home bases to run here and there looking for the dollars necessary to secure a spot in the history books. We have seen just about all we are going to see from the contestants barring a bubble birth, late defection, or change of heart.
. Link to Downey Top 64
http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/Derby_Contender_Graded_Earnings

Questions to answer.
1) Who has the heart both figuritivly and with pedigree?
2) Who has something left?
3) Who is gonna get the trip?

Best site I have found for pedigrees of the contenders so far.
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses
The home work is there for sure.

Would give me an ulcer having a horse prepping for this.


Nice post thanks. Video replays of each KDerby race from 1970 or so! pretty impressive as well as many other videos of recent stakes ..HERE (http://derbyexperiences.com/info/previous-winners-watch-the-race)

http://derbyexperiences.com/info/previous-winners-watch-the-race

turninforhome10
04-30-2012, 11:59 AM
Here is a little worksheet for thoses newbies that are getting ready for the Derby. Was having a bad run recently and went back to the basics. It is really good for putting your handicapping process back in line. The worksheets are on pages 6 and 7.
http://www.frandsen.com/newsletters/2010/July%202010/ALL-Ways%20Newsletter%20July%202010.pdf

These are Alll-Ways newsletters and have a lot of useful info.
http://www.frandsen.com/Newsletters%20List.htm

Still standing by I'll have another, but the back thing is a little concerning. Had a nice horse with a bad back one time. Required a lot of work and some pretty sore hands from the massage time. As long a he got his shoulder blanket for sweating and his morning massage he stayed happy and won 6 of 9 but any track short of dry and fast gave him problems.

Weather so far- Seasonably warm with temperatures in the 80's possibly 90s on Wed or Thurs. Central US unstable this week and with the high temperatures and fronts moving through should get some rain . So far for Sat 30% chance of pop up thunderstorms and high in the 80's .
Will post more for info at this point as my handicapping is done.

turninforhome10
05-04-2012, 10:35 PM
Here are my numbers. It is a word file(virus and macros free)
Times are estimated based on last 2 races and are adjusted for a fast track.
Looks to be a hard fast track as evidenced by Sucessful Dans effort in the Alysheba. The first turn is gonna make the whole race.
Good luck and will update in AM
Enjoy the Derby and Cinco de Mayo but as always in moderation.

turninforhome10
05-05-2012, 06:41 PM
Today is the culmination of alot of race watching and alot of research but all I can say is Wow. Horse made me look like a genius. I have officially cleaned up and conquered the Derby and gave you guys the winner and did so with plenty of time to spare. This is how you redboard. What a race and how cool is this. To excited to post as I think I had the tri, super and pick5. I am gonna faint as my pulse is racing a million miles an hour. :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump:

turninforhome10
05-05-2012, 07:33 PM
Best Derby I've ever had, loves when a plan comes together. My picks did not do so bad either. No red horse finished in the mix and two of my three money pick hit the tri. What got me on Bodemiester was that workout whre he got into the horse and the fact he was so cool in the PP. Dr Hanson should have either read my thread or figured it out on his own. The horse was a mess. Trinniberg went farther than I thought and UR is too slow for this year. Really proud of IHA and all of his connections and want to thank them for allowing me to work part time the rest of the year without worry.
We will see what shakes out before Old Hilltop.
Sincere thanks for reading this thread. 4400 hits is pretty cool.

iceknight
05-05-2012, 09:23 PM
BIG CONGRATULATIONS!!!

turninforhome10
05-05-2012, 09:36 PM
BIG CONGRATULATIONS!!!

Thanks Ice.

turninforhome10
05-06-2012, 09:56 AM
Gonna kill this thread. Pick the Derby winner 6 weeks out. Gave many winners along the way and what I thought was good analysis. What I have figured out is that people care more about controversy and outlandishness. More people were more than happy to jump on SOF, than to throw me a little bone for giving out the winner. If people think I am a joke than thats fine. Rather than feel like I need to be edgy and trash people to get readers, I will concentrate on moving my act to my blog. I have put to much stock into my work and would really like to start something more professional. As of today you can read my posts at http://turninforhome.blogspot.com/
Good luck to everyone and thanks for allowing me to post here.

PaceAdvantage
05-06-2012, 07:58 PM
Well, I was just about to congratulate you on having the winner picked second on that Word file you attached, but I guess it doesn't matter now, because for some reason, you've thrown a bit of a fit and decided to go home.

Wacky stuff man...nobody had a bad word to say about you and you still get pissed off...weird...

turninforhome10
05-06-2012, 08:05 PM
See Post 70. I am not pissed at all,quite the opposite. I crushed the Derby. The fact that you were gonna give me kudos for the word thing is great. Thanks. But the point is in post 70.

PaceAdvantage
05-06-2012, 10:07 PM
You do realize that you have 84 of the 109 posts in this thread, and that only a handful of folks have posted here other than you.

That's the reason why not many here are "throwing you a bone." Most don't know the thread exists

In any event, outstanding call so early on...my hat is off to you.

cj
05-06-2012, 10:27 PM
There is a LOT of traffic here. No way anyone can read all the threads. I never took time to read this one because of the title. What is TCB Blood Files? It just didn't interest me.

It doesn't mean it wasn't a damn good selection. Hats off to you.

turninforhome10
05-06-2012, 10:52 PM
TCB stands for The Condition Book, the name of my blog. Blood files has more to do with my business Rollins Bloodstock Consulting (RBC) and I am a lab tech by trade. I was doing pedigrees for the Derby and 2009 was the year of the birth for this bunch. I was looking to prove that pedigrees win Derbys. My goal here was to seriously discuss pedigrees. If there is interest in this I will start a pedigree thread to help players better understand them as a handicapping tool and just better understanding in general. I believe I have shown the importance of pedigree in this thread. Thanks for the kind words.

nijinski
05-06-2012, 11:32 PM
Big congrats Turninforhome ! I think Haskin might have read your blog .
He apparently wrote about IHA"s pedigree recently , so I heard .

You noticed he was coming around well at the right time !

iceknight
05-07-2012, 02:20 AM
Gonna kill this thread. Pick the Derby winner 6 weeks out. Gave many winners along the way and what I thought was good analysis. What I have figured out is that people care more about controversy and outlandishness. More people were more than happy to jump on SOF, than to throw me a little bone for giving out the winner. If people think I am a joke than thats fine. Rather than feel like I need to be edgy and trash people to get readers, I will concentrate on moving my act to my blog. I have put to much stock into my work and would really like to start something more professional. As of today you can read my posts at http://turninforhome.blogspot.com/
Good luck to everyone and thanks for allowing me to post here.

Due to the nature of how the posts get sorted to show latest posts by someone.. and due to the fact that I read the Selections thread with a cursory glance more often.. I somehow did not see this thread going to into the Derby. Nor did I see the small thread by Burls...

Yes, you are right controversy is what catches most attention, but I did believe in the pedigree discussion to be valid (I have Pell mell's blog bookmarked too..but if I remember right Gemologist was one of his main picks based on Pedigree).. So, while I had Bode, Dullahan, Creative Cause in my EX boxes, I didnt consider IHA seriously because the thread title did nt catch me either. As my one professor used to say "The title is what draws people in". So, a title like: Using Pedigree to Pick Derby Winner .. would surely get more interest and comments.
Pls don't be upset.

plainolebill
05-07-2012, 02:30 AM
I've been reading your posts from time to time but missed the big one!

Congratulations on your derby score and please consider continuing to post here.

Sysonby
05-07-2012, 03:27 AM
I liked I'll Have Another after the Robert B. Lewis, loved him after the Santa Anita, and picked him as my win horse after looking at the pedigrees of all the derby entries. I just read this today and I wish I'd read it sooner, would have saved me a lot of work.

I'd be very interested in reading anything else you want to post on pedigrees, turningforhome

turninforhome10
05-07-2012, 12:17 PM
Thanks for the kind words. I apolgize for my little meltdown yesterday. It was my fault that people did not get to read my thread as it got a little long. I thought of it more as column than a thread. When you pick the Derby winner with 6 weeks left and get no kudos, I felt like this thread was all for not. In reality the title was not indicative of the content and the content was much to big to read from end to end. I will continue to post both here and at the blog and I will do each week for the Graded Races with a new thread.

When I speak on pedigrees and performances, I try to remain as objective as possible showing no favoritsm for any line or performance. I have been studying pedigrees for 15 years and still do matings when requested. I aslo do catalog work. I use a pedigree program called Tesio Power that is just amazing. I have over 900k horses in my DB and can trace any horse back to their beginning. Many 18 hr days have been spent studying.

When you do the work and get no praise, it makes you question Why? Well, people have to know what they are reading and this was all on me. I am just kind of in weird spot in my life. I live in PA, to stay close to my daughter but I have forsaken all family and friends to stay here as I am from IA. This board is the only place that I have to talk horses as most of the people around me could care less. I guess I got a little sensitive and I apologize.

Lets move forward and hope for Triple Crown winner.I really think IHA is gonna get better but if Bodemiester comes back good he is real threat to win at Pimlico.

Thanks for reading

PaceAdvantage
05-07-2012, 07:25 PM
Pedigree is certainly one area where I can stand to soak up some knowledge, so I will continue to read your contributions with interest...as they say, the proof is in the pudding, and you gave us plenty of pudding well before the event... :ThmbUp:

turninforhome10
05-07-2012, 07:31 PM
Thanks PA, that really means alot to me. Thanks for letting me use this forum.
If anybody ever has any questions, I am available anytime.

FiveWide
05-07-2012, 09:16 PM
Big grats on the Derby pick! I have been dabbling in pedigree info for a couple months now and I know I've only touched the surface. You're about the only poster here I know that posts often about pedigrees so I try and catch everything you post. Hope you continue posting as well.

I did read your blog the other day and learned you were a big condition book handicapper. I would be more interested in what you have to say about that as well.

-Five

turninforhome10
05-09-2012, 02:33 AM
Robert Lewis winner I'll Have Another represents an War Admiral over Mahmoud cross on the bottom and comes from direct Mahmoud tail female. Arch may have a good future as a broodmare sire. The female line is very stout going back to Sea Bird (Highest ranked timeform number in Arc in History) Watch
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzXPXjUcOaA
While Sea Bird did not breed on very well this line has been upgraded with strong females in Althea and Never Knock (Dam of Go for Gin). Danzig inbreeding in through strong females. Has the right inbreeding of sons of ND as Sadlers Wells and Danzig have done well crossed as well as Nijinsky II and Lyphard.
I'll Have Another has every reason to move forward and while his performance in the Lewis was not breathtaking he finished within himself.
http://www.equineline.com/Free-5X-Pedigree.cfm?page_state=ORDER_AND_CONFIRM&reference_number=8583721&registry=T&horse_name=I%27ll+Have+Another&ASCID=1443262



This was posted on 2-7 and was a prelude of what was to come. These are the Bruce Lowe Family numbers over the last 49 years of the Derby
Family Wins
1 12
2 5
3 4
4 5
5 2
6 1
8 1
9 2
10 1
11 1
13 2
14 1
16 3
17 1
20 2
22 1
23 4
A4 2
A1 1
= 49 years


These were the numbers of the runners in the 2012 KY Derby
Alpha-1
Creative Cause-1
El Padrino-13
Gemologist-10
Hansen-22
I'll Have Another-23
Liaison-9 Triple Reines de Course in tail female
Rousing Sermon-7
Sabrecat-1x La Trioenne
Union Rags-13
Bodemeister-1
Dullahan-1
Take Charge Indy-22
Optimizer-20
Triiniberg-12
Prospective-1
Dullahan-23
Went the Day Well- 2

These were the results
All 1-2 and a double 23

Family number 23 http://www.tbheritage.com/HistoricDams/EngFoundationMares/Family23/Family23.html
Which goes back to the Broom Flower http://www.pedigreequery.com/broom+flower
Both I'LL Have Another and Dullahan come from the same foundation mare for George Widener (Widener Turf Course) and from Belmont's Stallion Broomstick
http://www.pedigreequery.com/broomstick
Bodemeister comes from The Popinjay line (Forty Niner)
http://www.tbheritage.com/HistoricDams/EngFoundationMares/Family1/Family1.html

Went the Day Well comes from family 2 and the Foundation Mare Bill and Coo
This line is responsible for some monsters and is one of my favorite sire lines for producing broodmares (Teddy, The Tertrarch (Nasrullah foundation)
http://www.tbheritage.com/HistoricDams/EngFoundationMares/Family2/Family2.html


Enjoy the research and take some time to check out the links, their is some fantastic photos courtesy of Thoroughbred Heritage(very nice site).

turninforhome10
05-14-2012, 08:37 PM
When doing a search for images of the Preakness to use for this article, I was amazed with the view
http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=preakness&FORM=HDRSC2#x0y520
While the KY Derby gets the attention for the Run for the Roses, the Preakness has it own style and flair that culminates with thousands of revelers making the infield the center of the known party universe. The young man in me would love to go and the old man in me is glad the the young man does not make these decsions anymore. I digress. Since we did so well with the Derby, lets put the pen to the paper and knock down some thoughts on the second leg of the Triple Crown.
I see that Hansen and Dullahan are gone. Hansen will try for turnback in the 7fur Woody Stephens on Belmont Day. Smart move. Dullahan will train forwardly for the Belmont it looks like.
Horses that will come back from the Derby include, I'll Have Another seeking leg 2. When asked about not working IHA O' Neill commented“Most of his works were by himself and all well within himself,” O’Neill said. “He’s just a horse that gives 110 percent in all his exercise, so he is able to keep himself fit and ready.”
Went the Day Well, who was closing well from a bad trip, . “I’ve certainly had a lot of stakes success at Pimlico.” says trainer Graham Motion.

Bodemeister is now officially coming after being reviewed by the sargent at arms Mr Baffert. “He looks good, his coat is good and he is eating well,” the five-time Preakness-winning trainer said after Bodemeister completed his activity under exercise rider George Alvarez. “I see no reason not to take him (to Pimlico).”
Creative Cause who has been running well, but just can't get past his "Newman" IHA. After finishing fifth in the Kentucky Derby, Creative Cause was shipped back to California by trainer Mike Harrington, who has determined that his colt is fit and ready to ship to Pimlico on Wednesday.
Possible to see Daddy Nose Best in Baltimore on Sat “The decision will be made on Tuesday after we see how he comes out of his work,” said Zollars by phone from Texas. “He came out of the (Kentucky) Derby fine. We had him all checked over. Steve and I will talk it over on Tuesday.”
Optimizer – StillinKy, Optimizer was the first horse to work over a track labeled as sloppy when the track opened at 6 o’clock. Working on his own, Optimizer recorded fractions of :13.20, :25.60 and :37.60.“That was perfect,” trainer D. Wayne Lukas said of the move that was the 14th fastest of 25 at the distance.
New Shooters for the Preakness
Teeth of the Dog- 3rd in the Wood Memorial. “He’s doing great. He just jogged two miles,” trainer Michael Matz said.
Tiger Walk–Sagamore Farms sends out the 4th place finisher in the Wood. “He likes the track. He was training here for about a month, and then we only left the babies here. We took all the other horses to the farm,” Correas said. “He’s very familiar and comfortable here. Now we’ll see how he handles the crowd – that’s the only question.”
Zetterholm- Ny bred jumps to the deep end after beating up on state rivals."Every race he has improved from his last,” Blake Dutrow said. “If he likes the track and the race sets up nice for him, he’s got as good a shot as anybody. I think the race does set up nice.”
Guyana Star Dweej- Longshot new comer who has yet to run againist these caliber of horses of of only a maiden win "I should have given him the whole month off,” after his maiden win, said the 59-year-old Guyana native. “I was really heading to the Peter Pan (last weekend at Belmont). Since we didn’t get to the Peter Pan, I decided to give him a shot in the Preakness. He’s a horse, I think, that can go the mile and three-sixteenths.”
Pretension- Nowhere in ILL, comes back to win prep stake at Pimlico. Decesion are being made on Mon.

Commentary-
While the horse racing fan in me, says this is the year. The historian in me is a realist. The Triple Crown without a doubt is one of the hardest things in all sports to pull off. A fearless, soldier of horse, a trainer with the guts to trust their instinct, and as much luck as talent is the recipe.
That being said I feel like I'll Have Another is the real deal. Will write more in a bit .

iceknight
05-14-2012, 09:09 PM
Hey There!ar
Just checking your thread again. So, this Guyana Star Dweej.. what's up with his trainer. Didn't he send Trinniberg to the Derby confident he could handle the distance. Now he is confident of GSD handling the Preakness distance.. hmm.. I don't know!

I have nt done much research except to see that CC cannot pull it together. I still need to go into detail about other contenders, but I might also wait for the post draw. Thanks for posting..

turninforhome10
05-14-2012, 11:42 PM
First let me say, that I feel that something big is gonna happen Saturday. What I am hoping for is an exciting stretch battle between IHA and Bode. I am hoping for a renewal of Affirmed Vs Alydar. I am not speaking to the class of the horses more the story line. We need good press and I feel these two equine warriors are the best thing going now. The young upstart jock on the 11k horse from Cali vs the Blueblood with the journeyman and the silver haired fox looking for redemption.
There has been much talk about the trip Bodemeister had in the Derby and whether Smith rode the right race.IMHO, Smith did nothing wrong. That is the kind of horse Bode is. That being said, I feel he will get better and move forward from the Derby. I equate to having the best car at Daytona and running out of gas turning for home. It was a gamble to take such a lightly raced horse to Louisville but the horse responded in kind and ran his lights out With a little more wind in him he might get the job done.That being said he did run some of the fastest splits in Derby history and this is the first time that I have ever seen a 113/124 for an E1\ E2 from a Bris Ultimate. Amazing. He did not seem rank or too eager, he was just moving within himself. I can understand trying to blame Smith for the ridiculous fractions, but CD was pure lightning as evidenced by the track records fallen on that day.
In order for Bode to get the win he will have to fight the horse, that I am truly thrilled with I'll Have Another. This horse is a warrior. Plus I believe him to a very intelligent animal who is very kind to himself in training. He reminds of the very good point guard who later became the coach of IA State, Fred Hoiberg. All business when it came to crunch time. If IHA was a basketball player he would want the ball with 3 seconds left down by 2 getting ready for the three. I just can't find a fault with him. He wants to win. Check him out at Pimlico.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LSXUCKAAHyI
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKSRHg-oklQ&feature=relmfu

The key to IHA is keeping him with a clear path. That is why I believe he did so well at CD. Long fluid strides of maximum aerobic efficiency, and an action that just glides over the ground. The one thing that can said about all of his wins; He has never been checked, stopped, pulled or forced too wide. While I do think a lot of Mario, this is more about the horse. It is the rare horse that makes their own luck by making the very best out of each trip. I remember reading a fiction book loosely based on tales of So Cal. There was a story about an apprentice jock and the relationship he developed with an older claimer that was an old class horse. It was told from the horses point of view. Well this old claimer taught this kid all about what a smart horse is capable of. The first race, the boy fought with horse. The horse being much wiser and seeing no chance for a win, stopped and sulked. The second race the boy trying to again fight the horse, finally succumbed to the horse and was merely the passenger rather than the pilot and at the the 3\8ths pole the horse took off and moved through horses to run a good third. The third race the boy trusting the horse let him run his race and the horse got a chance to finally beat his arch rival for bragging rights back at the stable. Mario and IHA seem to have a similar chemistry. They trust each other.

Went the Day Well IMHO got the very worst of the Derby trip. Prospective came out at the start and then crush of the horse under the line the first time was strike two and getting checked in the first turn when horse came down on him was strike three. Say what you will about Dullahan being the closer for the Belmont, if this horse gets the trip on Derby Day we don't even talk about Bodemeister and Mike Smith or the late running Dullahan. With a clean trip, this horse will be the biggest threat to derail a triple crown hope.

Creative Cause has been consistent throughout the trail and his Derby was not all that bad and he showed heart to finish well. The only fault I find with this guy is he has had good trips and just needs that little extra push to pass horse in the lane. He seems to hang a bit when the real running starts. I don't see any real reason to see him moving forward here. I will wait for this guy to layoff and return to Cali for the fall.

New Faces.
Zetterholm for Dutrow, ships in off 3 straights wins against NY breds

turninforhome10
05-15-2012, 12:23 AM
Doing some DB work and crashed the puter. Anyway

Guyanna Star Dweej- Come on, really. I have this old nasty DRF hat that I break out for fishing that I will gladly dip in chocolate and consume if this guy gets the money.
Pretension is the best of the local horses. Winning the local prep for the Preakness after getting trounced in the Ill Derby. I am sure there will be a warm fuzzy story about Chris Grove, but I saw what I needed in Ill.
Teeth of the Dog- I bet this guy in the Wood and gave my donation to his cause once. Matz shoots blanks again.
Tiger Walk is a horse that I have liked since breaking his maiden at Laurel on the weeds. I really hoped for big things from this guy as I would love to see Sagamore on the map again. I just have grown so distrustful of betting on Kent D that is really creates a quandary for me. Kent D know Pimlico extremely well having come up in Marlyand as a young rider. If traditions come together this horse has a shot to fill out supers.
Brimstone Island- Horse has gotten good. I have hard time in believing a horse claimed from the very good horseman Steve Hobby gets this far up the ladder. No thanks.
Cozetti missed the Derby with earnings issues after a 4th in Ark. Pedigree says grass, races say miler against lesser.

I like
I'll Have Another- Bodemeister- Went the Day Well for the top spots
Tiger Walk- Creative Cause for good efforts.
Again these are my opinions
It was said by John E Madden famous trainer\breeder that delivered Sir Barton to the very first Triple Crown:
" Opinions die,
it is only the records that stand"
Good cappin

iceknight
05-16-2012, 01:35 PM
Doing some DB work and crashed the puter. Anyway

Guyanna Star Dweej- Come on, really. I have this old nasty DRF hat that I break out for fishing that I will gladly dip in chocolate and consume if this guy gets the money.
Good cappin

Haha, your hat is safe http://goo.gl/3cCCT

turninforhome10
05-19-2012, 07:13 PM
"In order for Bode to get the win he will have to fight the horse, that I am truly thrilled with I'll Have Another. This horse is a warrior. Plus I believe him to a very intelligent animal who is very kind to himself in training. He reminds of the very good point guard who later became the coach of IA State, Fred Hoiberg. All business when it came to crunch time. If IHA was a basketball player he would want the ball with 3 seconds left down by 2 getting ready for the three. I just can't find a fault with him. He wants to win. Check him out at Pimlico.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LSXUCKAAHyI
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKSR...&feature=relmfu

The key to IHA is keeping him with a clear path. That is why I believe he did so well at CD. Long fluid strides of maximum aerobic efficiency, and an action that just glides over the ground. The one thing that can said about all of his wins; He has never been checked, stopped, pulled or forced too wide. While I do think a lot of Mario, this is more about the horse. It is the rare horse that makes their own luck by making the very best out of each trip. I remember reading a fiction book loosely based on tales of So Cal. There was a story about an apprentice jock and the relationship he developed with an older claimer that was an old class horse. It was told from the horses point of view. Well this old claimer taught this kid all about what a smart horse is capable of. The first race, the boy fought with horse. The horse being much wiser and seeing no chance for a win, stopped and sulked. The second race the boy trying to again fight the horse, finally succumbed to the horse and was merely the passenger rather than the pilot and at the the 3\8ths pole the horse took off and moved through horses to run a good third. The third race the boy trusting the horse let him run his race and the horse got a chance to finally beat his arch rival for bragging rights back at the stable. Mario and IHA seem to have a similar chemistry. They trust each other." quote

Could not have wrote the Preakness any better. What a great story this is turning into. I'll Have Another is just to much for this years crop. I am truly inspired by this great animal. Fight, courage, brains, he is the deal. I am truly hoping for triple crown and how cool to have found this guy back in March. Hope everyone keeps doubting the jock and connections as the doubters have paid for my vacation this year.Good cappin.

PaceAdvantage
05-19-2012, 07:19 PM
Nice going...wish I had the kind of faith in this horse that you do...

turninforhome10
05-20-2012, 01:07 AM
Nice going...wish I had the kind of faith in this horse that you do...
Thanks PA. I have been around a lot of horses in my time and this guy is one cool customer. Watching the videos around the barn of this guy and he has a presence to him. He just takes it all in knowing that his reward is getting to run.
I am not romantic by any means, as being an Asst trainer for years, I have had my heart broken a lot, but this guy has something special. I really think he is running out of competition. What I am afraid of is the big target on his back going into the Belmont. Mario better have his game on going to New York. I am wondering if the lack of excitement on your part might be from all of us getting so close with 2, only to be denied in the Belmont. Are we as gamblers and racetrackers finding it harder to be a fan?

It will be very interesting to see how the media handles this. Has a chance to be really good story, but much will depend on how they handle Doug O Neill and the background on Reddam and his payday loan business.

Our sport really needs this to happen.

iceknight
05-20-2012, 01:07 AM
Could not have wrote the Preakness any better. What a great story this is turning into. I'll Have Another is just to much for this years crop. I am truly inspired by this great animal. Fight, courage, brains, he is the deal. I am truly hoping for triple crown and how cool to have found this guy back in March. Hope everyone keeps doubting the jock and connections as the doubters have paid for my vacation this year.Good cappin.


Hey I jumped on the bandwagon to some extent so atleast got some small exactas...haha. Nice cappin..

RU going to go to Belmont in June?

turninforhome10
05-20-2012, 01:13 AM
Hey I jumped on the bandwagon to some extent so atleast got some small exactas...haha. Nice cappin..

RU going to go to Belmont in June?
Thanks Ice. Taking my daughter to Cedar Point in Ohio as she is finally tall enough to ride the big rolly coasters and going back to Iowa for 25 year reunion.
I am thankful in the big scheme of things that Santa Anita went back to dirt. The Triple Crown is much better with more real dirt tracks to prep on.

PaceAdvantage
05-21-2012, 04:19 AM
I am wondering if the lack of excitement on your part might be from all of us getting so close with 2, only to be denied in the Belmont. Are we as gamblers and racetrackers finding it harder to be a fan?I was ruined by Holy Bull in 1994. And when his career came to an abrupt end in the Donn Handicap against Cigar in 1995, my heart was literally broken that day, I was so in love with that horse (still am).

I guess I'll know it when I see it, if indeed I ever do see it again (I am hopeful).

iceknight
05-21-2012, 11:48 AM
Thanks Ice. Taking my daughter to Cedar Point in Ohio as she is finally tall enough to ride the big rolly coasters and going back to Iowa for 25 year reunion.
I am thankful in the big scheme of things that Santa Anita went back to dirt. The Triple Crown is much better with more real dirt tracks to prep on.
Have a nice and good luck on the TC then.
ps: You may have to carry your old DRF hat with you. Guyana Star Dweej entered as probable for Belmont.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1282453&postcount=1

turninforhome10
05-23-2012, 01:11 AM
Since we got a couple of weeks, I will put the contenders under the microscope.
Each horse will get their own pedigree reports. I used the PP's Brisnet has available for the Belmont to get the contenders if PA does mind using the space.
---- A ----
Alpha,1
Atigun,1
---- C ----
Creative Cause,1
---- D ----
Dullahan,1
---- F ----
Five Sixteen,1
---- G ----
Guyana Star Dweej,1
---- I ----
I'll Have Another,1
---- M ----
Mark Valeski,1
---- O ----
Optimizer,1
---- P ----
Paynter,1
---- R ----
Rousing Sermon,1
---- S ----
Stealcase,1
Street Life,1
---- U ----
Union Rags,1
Unstoppable U,1

Let's start with Alpha
The reports are listed below as attachments.
Included is:
Dosage- Based on breeder scale
7gen pedigree color dups and bold siblings
8 gen analysis of occurs
8 gen Reines de Course or matron mares
Tail female back to entry into stud book.
If you have any questions feel free to ask.

turninforhome10
05-23-2012, 01:20 AM
Atigun

P.S. When I get them all listed, I will talk a little about them.

turninforhome10
05-23-2012, 10:59 AM
Thanks to everyone.6000 :jump:

Sysonby
05-23-2012, 03:08 PM
Very much looking forward to your pedigree analysis for the Belmont!

turninforhome10
05-23-2012, 06:05 PM
Just got off the phone with my best buddy and training mentor T Red Bernis
His grand nephew Brandon Menard has the double bug at EVD. According to Red this boy can ride and if he is anything like Red or Kenwood when they where in the saddle, watch out. Kid should have a bright future and is only 17. Red was one of the leading riders in the country in the late 60's and from the stories would do everything it took to get their first. Live mounts should be coming forthwith.

turninforhome10
05-24-2012, 12:51 AM
Creative Cause

turninforhome10
05-24-2012, 12:54 AM
Dullahan

turninforhome10
05-24-2012, 12:56 AM
Five Sixteen

turninforhome10
05-24-2012, 01:34 AM
Guyanna Star Dweej
I will eat the hat

turninforhome10
05-24-2012, 01:46 AM
I'll Have Another. You have Sea Bird, Stage Door Johnny(Belmont winner) well just take a look. This is a pedigree to go 2 miles. I really expect him to excel at this distance. I am predicting now that if all goes as planned, you might see this guy's name as a sire of Belmont winner someday.

turninforhome10
05-24-2012, 01:52 AM
Optimizer

turninforhome10
05-24-2012, 01:56 AM
Paynter




That is all for today as my eyes are crossing.
Again thanks for reading and seriously, any questions, hit me up. That is what this thread is for.

nijinski
05-24-2012, 02:08 AM
I don't think CC will be there , think he's pointing towards a grass race back West in July.

turninforhome10
05-24-2012, 02:15 AM
I don't think CC will be there , think he's pointing towards a grass race back West in July.
I figured that but he was listed on the PP's. Creative Cause is kind of screwed as I scoured the 3yo races in the west and his bet bet was grass. Nothing really happening. Thought of the Pacific Classic but the water might be little deep. Too bad there is not a straight 3yo race at Del Mar going long on the synth.

nijinski
05-24-2012, 02:40 AM
I figured that but he was listed on the PP's. Creative Cause is kind of screwed as I scoured the 3yo races in the west and his bet bet was grass. Nothing really happening. Thought of the Pacific Classic but the water might be little deep. Too bad there is not a straight 3yo race at Del Mar going long on the synth.
Think The DRF quoted trainer , 50-50 for The Swaps or the La Jolla at Delmar.

turninforhome10
06-01-2012, 11:46 AM
Since there is much talk regarding UR ability to go 12 fur. lets put him under a microscope. First, he is from family 13-b http://www.tbheritage.com/HistoricDams/EngFoundationMares/Family13/Family13.html, This family has produced 4 winner of the Belmont Stakes see web link.
Most recently we have Seattle Slew and Colonial Affair from this family . Slew was from the Myrtlewood link which is family 13-c, a strong family of stallions. Slew won with speed to go long. Colonial Affair is from the immediate family of Glad Rags- 3rd dam of UR family 13-b. Colonial Affair was by Pleasant Colony- a known producer of stayers. Colonial Affair had a big middle move, long stride and loved Belmont. He was not a big name 2yo reflecting his sire ability to get better with age. UR was a good 2yo much as his 3rd dam Glad Rags who was Chmp 2yo in Ire. It seems the family does better with juveniles than older stayers. Looking back 9 gens with the List Descendants report you see this.
So, IMHO UR gets the distance based on running style and his love of Belmont. He will have to buck his pedigree to do this. Physicality of the horse vs pedigree is the question. If he runs like the Champagne, he is a real threat.

Sysonby
06-01-2012, 01:45 PM
Thanks again for doing this! Looking forward to your analysis re Street Life

turninforhome10
06-02-2012, 01:46 AM
Street Life is by Street Sense(Champion 2yo, Ky Derby Etc) Link to sire stats
http://www.equineline.com/extendedcontent/bh.cfm?StallionRef=7198670&rtype=stats&ASCID=1443262
With 3 crops to race his best have had a tendency to be long sprinters AWD 7..44. With only 3 crops to race he seems to get precocious youngsters that are ready early to go distances up to a mile before others. So far, other than Japan he has not reproduced himself. His book would have had it's best mares in it's first 3 years so this is make or break year for him. He is a good juvenile sire but to attract classic mares he will need that extra push. He will need a stout mare to get a classic distance like 12 fur.
Street life comes from a long line of classic types coming from family 16-h
http://www.tbheritage.com/HistoricDams/EngFoundationMares/Family16/Family16.html. Belmont winners include Shut Out, Chateaugay,Little Current and from branch -b Commendable.
I went back to War Feather to pull data. A Man O War mare who a Champion producer and went on to estabilsh her own branch of the family. Was then bred to Derby winner Burgoo King and produced one of the very best daughters of a very modest stallion. Then bred to a very nice stallion in Alibhai. Not easy to get a ticket. Penultimate broodmare sire. Then the very stout Greek Song who won the Endurance Handicap in Chicago. Then the versatile To Market who while not the best of his generation, he did have speed to go long setting track records at 6fur and 10fur.Then we get to the modern pedigree. Round Table, Roberto, Known Fact and Grindstone. Lot of distance here but no wins at 12 fur on dirt. I appreciate the names but this is a lot of turf speed. How that translates to 12 fur dirt is the question. While the stallions are rated high as chefs, I wonder if we can establish a new Chef De Race table for dirt just using solid and professional dirt tendencies of sire.
While I really like the pedigree to go long, 12 furs is too much for his guy.
First I am not convinced of he Peter Pan as key race as I am doubting Mark Valeski and while his closing speed looks good he is going to need to be closer as things are not going to be 45 and 109 to set him up.
I like him for a decent effort but feel he is a GrIII middle router effective at mile to 1 1/8th. Exotic chance if someone get silly up front early.

Sysonby
06-02-2012, 09:25 PM
I think he might be a little better than that, Turningforhome, but not sure he's ready for a race like the Belmont yet. Thanks for the pedigree insight, always very helpful!

turninforhome10
06-02-2012, 10:20 PM
I think he might be a little better than that, Turningforhome, but not sure he's ready for a race like the Belmont yet. Thanks for the pedigree insight, always very helpful!
I think he has the possibility to be a very nice animal. I am just hoping Chad Brown plays the right hand with him. He could be a monster based on pedigree and pace type for the grass and not throwing this around loosely. 1 1/8th mile on the weeds at Saratoga and use that big closing kick. Running him against animals that have the speed and don't back up could jerk the heart right out of him. This horse, I have liked and been watching since first race. I guess I am basing my assessment on the parties getting late 3yo season fever and running him over his head. Would love to see him put away after this and taken to Sar where Chad Brown can do no wrong on the grass or otherwise. Tab him for later if moved in the right spots.Will finish up a proper assessment by draw time . Thanks for reading.

turninforhome10
06-06-2012, 11:20 AM
:1: Street Life
:2: Unstoppable U
:3: Union Rags
:4: Atigun
:5: Dullahan
:6: Ravelo's Boy
:7: Fivesixteen
:8: Guyana Star Dweej
:9: Paynter
:10: Optimizer
:11: I' ll Have Another
:12: My Adonis
This is it folks, post positions and final field. Putting something together today and will post later. Digesting the post's now.

turninforhome10
06-06-2012, 11:45 AM
From Ground Hog Day. "Did you really want the weather"
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

turninforhome10
06-06-2012, 11:48 AM
Trying to find factors relevant to two turn races on dirt at Belmont. Would it be true that only races at 10 fur or more would be two turns?

turninforhome10
06-07-2012, 01:35 PM
Well we have come to the Belmont. My Derby horse has swept the first two legs and is now looking for immortality. Can he do it? I say yes. Based on pedigree and performance, I have a strong feeling that the Belmont may be his best yet.
I'll Have Another has the strongest breeding for 12 fur of all those who have gotten 2 of 3 since 1978. Stage Door Johnny, Pleasant Colony, Sea Bird and double doses of female Danzig's. His sire is providing the speed and the bottom is the stout. I much prefer the AWD of the broodmare sire to be greater than the stallion. Speed over stamina is what wins classic races. Sure there are freaks but this guy has proven himself. His gallops are all that he needs to stay fit and not get to hot(temperament). He is a very happy horse right now and O'Neill has been spot on with prepping this guy so far, so I don't doubt he is ready.
Horses of concern
Again only opinions.
:1: Street Life- Not today. Nice animal but getting his heart jerked out when the speed does not back up is only going be another check presented for cashing with no money in the account.
:2: Unstoppable U- Two one turn races and works are not gonna put this guy on my radar.Nice animal but seasoning is much lacking. Junior was going at him pretty hard form the 16th home at Bel in the one turn allowance and the other Belmont entry from that race Guyanna Star Dweej bounced from the maiden win. McPeek says his two are both better than Sarava, and this one will have to run a race that might not be in him yet. See Dosage below.
:3: Union Rags- Want to see this guy run a race without excuses and with the 12 fur and returning to the scene of one of his best efforts there will be no excuses today. Put up or shut up. That being said he is training well and Johnny V picks up mount after being on board on Sunday at Fair Hill for a very speedy 59.3 for 5fur. Was Johnny V taking a test drive? Matz did not seem very happy with the fast work. Turning for home we will find out if this guy is all hype or is finally putting his problems behind him. Mid Pack finish IMHO.
:4: Atigun- I was high on this guy in Ark and the speed has yet to come back to him. Showing speed in works and has a nice pedigree based on crosses to Secretariat family members. Dynaformer on the bottom and the broodmare sire of Istan, Bluebird is a stamina source. I like this guy to move forward here as the more seasoned of the two McPeeK horses.
:5: Dullahan- Everybody is high on this guy as being the spoiler. I am taking a stand that he won't fill the exacta. Wrong surface and wrong distance. His owner Jerry Craawford has made some pretty crazy claims IMHO. "Belmont a Stallion making race". He did not run in the Preakness based on the stallion pedigree "pedigree says he needed a rest" Huh? His Speed figures have been good but his Bris LP figures says his deep closes are an illusion. He has only had one LP figure above 100 and that was on the turf in the Palm Beach. Playing against here.
:6: Ravelo's Boy- Florida invader rested after tough trip in Tampa. Working forwardly but pedigree is seriously lacking quality and dosage to perform this task, see below. Don't see it here
:7: Five Sixteen- Needed blinks to go after N1x win at 1 1/8th and got beat by a pretty normal field. Salt Lake on the bottom and I am out.
:8: Guyanna Star Dweej- The hat is on the desk, but I am pretty comfortable that it will remain there. See absolutely no reason to run him here and he might be the best as it will take 10 horses to beat him (Joke). Next
:9: Paynter- Sire was very classy router and dam is full sister to Tiznow. A troubled trip in the SA Derby and finished a good 4the to I'LL Have Another. His Derby trial was good but a one turn mile. The race at Pim was very good and showed he can rate at move late at 2 turns with a nice 109 LP figure. I feel that race was a nice prep for the Belmont and he looks to have more in the tank. If this guy gets the lead and is doing it easy he will have a say in the outcome.
:10: Optimizer- Does not belong and Lukas running these types to stay in the limelight is growing old.
:11: I' ll Have Another- I have nothing left to say about this guy but thanks for giving me a reason to be a fan again. Can't do anything to get the value on him on win as souvenir hunters will kill his price. Looking at Brooklyn\Belmont Doubles for value. and maybe a pick 3. This horse has made my whole season. Future Book, SA Derby, Ky Derby and the Preakness and have cashed them all as documented through this thread.
:12: My Adonis- Connections took this race last year with Ruler on Ice. I think this guy might surprise on Sat. Picks up Ramon and will be clear of all trouble outside. Either that helps him or kills him. IMHO allowing him to rate and make a big late run might help. Trujillo had him so close to the pace and came up empty. Ramon might change that and let him run like he did in the Holy Bull. My longshot
My Picks
:11:
:3: :4: :9: :12:
:3: :4: :9: :12:

Thanks everyone for following this thread. It has been a whole lot of fun and very profitable. This will be one of the last posts as we will switch gears and start looking at 2yo's at the Spa. Can never get started to early. Any input is welcome.

Sysonby
06-07-2012, 03:04 PM
Thanks again for all the work you've put into this, turninforhome. Very nice sum up!

iceknight
06-07-2012, 11:58 PM
. Any input is welcome. Thanks a lot for sharing your opinions. In particular your opinion on Dullahan has made me sit up and check the PP again. My only concern about IHA was that he got a lot of whip in the preakness..but then I realize, he finished 8.5 lengths ahead of 3rd place there. Speaks volumes, Excited for true contender. :)

turninforhome10
06-09-2012, 07:57 PM
Well we have come to the Belmont. My Derby horse has swept the first two legs and is now looking for immortality. Can he do it? I say yes. Based on pedigree and performance, I have a strong feeling that the Belmont may be his best yet.
I'll Have Another has the strongest breeding for 12 fur of all those who have gotten 2 of 3 since 1978. Stage Door Johnny, Pleasant Colony, Sea Bird and double doses of female Danzig's. His sire is providing the speed and the bottom is the stout. I much prefer the AWD of the broodmare sire to be greater than the stallion. Speed over stamina is what wins classic races. Sure there are freaks but this guy has proven himself. His gallops are all that he needs to stay fit and not get to hot(temperament). He is a very happy horse right now and O'Neill has been spot on with prepping this guy so far, so I don't doubt he is ready.
Horses of concern
Again only opinions.
:1: Street Life- Not today. Nice animal but getting his heart jerked out when the speed does not back up is only going be another check presented for cashing with no money in the account.
:2: Unstoppable U- Two one turn races and works are not gonna put this guy on my radar.Nice animal but seasoning is much lacking. Junior was going at him pretty hard form the 16th home at Bel in the one turn allowance and the other Belmont entry from that race Guyanna Star Dweej bounced from the maiden win. McPeek says his two are both better than Sarava, and this one will have to run a race that might not be in him yet. See Dosage below.
:3: Union Rags- Want to see this guy run a race without excuses and with the 12 fur and returning to the scene of one of his best efforts there will be no excuses today. Put up or shut up. That being said he is training well and Johnny V picks up mount after being on board on Sunday at Fair Hill for a very speedy 59.3 for 5fur. Was Johnny V taking a test drive? Matz did not seem very happy with the fast work. Turning for home we will find out if this guy is all hype or is finally putting his problems behind him. Mid Pack finish IMHO.
:4: Atigun- I was high on this guy in Ark and the speed has yet to come back to him. Showing speed in works and has a nice pedigree based on crosses to Secretariat family members. Dynaformer on the bottom and the broodmare sire of Istan, Bluebird is a stamina source. I like this guy to move forward here as the more seasoned of the two McPeeK horses.
:5: Dullahan- Everybody is high on this guy as being the spoiler. I am taking a stand that he won't fill the exacta. Wrong surface and wrong distance. His owner Jerry Craawford has made some pretty crazy claims IMHO. "Belmont a Stallion making race". He did not run in the Preakness based on the stallion pedigree "pedigree says he needed a rest" Huh? His Speed figures have been good but his Bris LP figures says his deep closes are an illusion. He has only had one LP figure above 100 and that was on the turf in the Palm Beach. Playing against here.
:6: Ravelo's Boy- Florida invader rested after tough trip in Tampa. Working forwardly but pedigree is seriously lacking quality and dosage to perform this task, see below. Don't see it here
:7: Five Sixteen- Needed blinks to go after N1x win at 1 1/8th and got beat by a pretty normal field. Salt Lake on the bottom and I am out.
:8: Guyanna Star Dweej- The hat is on the desk, but I am pretty comfortable that it will remain there. See absolutely no reason to run him here and he might be the best as it will take 10 horses to beat him (Joke). Next
:9: Paynter- Sire was very classy router and dam is full sister to Tiznow. A troubled trip in the SA Derby and finished a good 4the to I'LL Have Another. His Derby trial was good but a one turn mile. The race at Pim was very good and showed he can rate at move late at 2 turns with a nice 109 LP figure. I feel that race was a nice prep for the Belmont and he looks to have more in the tank. If this guy gets the lead and is doing it easy he will have a say in the outcome.
:10: Optimizer- Does not belong and Lukas running these types to stay in the limelight is growing old.
:11: I' ll Have Another- I have nothing left to say about this guy but thanks for giving me a reason to be a fan again. Can't do anything to get the value on him on win as souvenir hunters will kill his price. Looking at Brooklyn\Belmont Doubles for value. and maybe a pick 3. This horse has made my whole season. Future Book, SA Derby, Ky Derby and the Preakness and have cashed them all as documented through this thread.
:12: My Adonis- Connections took this race last year with Ruler on Ice. I think this guy might surprise on Sat. Picks up Ramon and will be clear of all trouble outside. Either that helps him or kills him. IMHO allowing him to rate and make a big late run might help. Trujillo had him so close to the pace and came up empty. Ramon might change that and let him run like he did in the Holy Bull. My longshot
My Picks
:11:
:3: :4: :9: :12:
:3: :4: :9: :12:

Thanks everyone for following this thread. It has been a whole lot of fun and very profitable. This will be one of the last posts as we will switch gears and start looking at 2yo's at the Spa. Can never get started to early. Any input is welcome.
There is your tri after IHA scratches. A brilliant ride by Johnny V and big horse who likes Belmont

sammy the sage
06-09-2012, 08:56 PM
straight up good call...hopefully ya cashed it :ThmbUp:

turninforhome10
06-09-2012, 09:03 PM
straight up good call...hopefully ya cashed it :ThmbUp:
I spent the whole afternoon in the hospital being treated for cellulitis only to get home feeling like shit and see the tri came in and I had nada. Feeling better and look forward to the Travers and Haskell.

nijinski
06-09-2012, 10:31 PM
I spent the whole afternoon in the hospital being treated for cellulitis only to get home feeling like shit and see the tri came in and I had nada. Feeling better and look forward to the Travers and Haskell.
Sending well wishes to you ! Hope your feeling better fast !

Sysonby
06-10-2012, 12:08 AM
Sorry to hear that, hope you feel better soon!

turninforhome10
06-10-2012, 12:23 AM
Thanks guys. I got nailed by brown recluse a few years back and ever since it blows up for no reason. Guess it was a fitting end to this years TC

turninforhome10
06-11-2012, 07:49 AM
With over 7400 hits and triple crown season now over lets recap our results.
We picked The Hutcheson, The San Felipe, The Fountain of Youth. The Risen Star, The Rebel,The SA Derby and most importantly we found the KY Derby winner in March. We aslo got the Preakness and Belmont. We got smoked at Sunland and the LA Derby. There is a lot of nice research in this thread and I have enjoyed making it. So as the sun sets on Belmont, who out of this group of 3yo's is going on to become a true older handicap type. I have some ideas and will start a new thread before Saratoga. Again thanks for reading

Sysonby
06-11-2012, 06:29 PM
Looking forward to the new thread, turninforhome!