Track record Haw, GGF

[kenwoodallpromos]

Races and 4f dirt workouts show: Haw 12th had a major positive rail bias and many works very fast and very slow; GGF 18th just a very fast track overall and faster than normal works.

[Speed Figure]

I was looking at the card making figures for the races. I have a variant of "6" for the sprints.
1C 2C SR SF CL
Smoke till Dawn 96 106 101 99 113.68

[kenwoodallpromos]

Instead of DRF variant for the day I use track speed of 4f dirt works at 1/5 second intervals; 48.6 and under=1, 48.8=2, etc. 50.4 and over=10. I add 1 second for tracks who have a minimum purse of 3,000.00 or less. Watch for large gaps in work times as indicators of track bias. Of course "muddy" tracks are unreliable!

[alysheba88]

Are the clockers reliable? I have heard that California clockers are relatively honest.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I find 4f dirt works, which horses run without extreme effort, to be one of the few areas of horseracing where the average (middle time in this case) is very reliable because you often have over 20 horses running on a track groomed overnight, with trainers almost all trying to get an honest work to figure out where and when to race the horse. You have one standard: 48.6 or faster (variant of 1) to 50.4 or slower(variant of 10) scale, for almost all tracks. I consider 49.2 to 49.8 to be "normal" speed / A middle work of 49.6 for example, is the same as almost any other middle 49.6 work any day anywhere. / If the same horse works a 49.6 one day at 10 of 20 horses (variant of 6), and then works another day another track at 49.6 at 2 of 20 horses, you can be sure the 2 of 20 is a better work because the middle time would be maybe a 50.2 (variant of 9) and thus that track would be the slower of the two. / In the above example, you can use to compare a horse's races each of those days. / I also look at 3f dirt works for general speed and gaps, especially when there are gate works, for bias. / A great confirmation is when the first race runs true to what you saw in the works. / I have seen slow morning works and fast races, mostly due to a lot of watering or rain later in the day. I have never yet seen races slower than the works indicate. / As a rule of thumb I assume the 4f dirt works range of 48.6 to 50.4 relate to 6f race finish times of 1:08.6 to 1:10.4, but of no mathematical significance!

[kenwoodallpromos]

If clockers hide individual horse's true works it will not affect the overall group of works. Neither will individual trainers' occasional running horses wide or with heavy weights because you are looking at the Overall Times. If you look at any track's 1 day's race card, you will see that because of the variety of distance, class, and type of races, basing an average track variant or accumulation of finish times for judging the track speed the day of the races will be totally unreliable. And to base 3-year pars average on the finish times of that track's races with various conditions and also track dirt cusion depth and possible base changes is equally reliable. / I win good money betting favorites either to win or place/show against speed figure bettors who assume the track is always running exactly the "average" par speed by knowing exactly how fast the track is running on any particular day!! I understand how (and exactly how much!) a track's speed varies, even on a "dry" track!