Robert B Lewis Stakes grade II $200,000

[redshift1]

Robert B Lewis Stakes grade II $200,000 One Mile and One Sixteenth.

Saturday February 4th.

2011 Run at One Mile and One Eighth.

No Bernardini’s or Tapit’s as in the Holy Bull but Indian Charlie was well regarded.

Possible entries:

Rousing Sermon .... Lucky Pulpit
Liaison ..... Indian Charlie deceased
Groovin’ Solo ... Bob and John
Isn’t He Clever ... Smarty Jones
Sky Kingdom .... Empire Maker now standing in Japan
I’ll Have Another .... Flower Alley
Chips All In .... North Light
Empire Way ... Empire Maker now standing in Japan
Brother Francis ... Lion Heart now standing in Turkey
Blueskiesnrainbows ... English Channel


.

[Blenheim]

Should be a good one.

Got a few solid contenders in here in Brother Francis, Liaison and Isn't He Clever. I haven't see the data, but I understand the SA surface is juiced up and few can come from behind and win - some liken the surface to conveyor belt. If the horse gets up front, cya!

Nothin' like the Derby Trail. Lookin forward to the next one.

[rgustafson]

Should be a good one.

I haven't see the data, but I understand the SA surface is juiced up and few can come from behind and win - some liken the surface to conveyor belt. If the horse gets up front, cya!

Nothin' like the Derby Trail. Lookin forward to the next one.

You might want to check the charts before making this kind of presumption. Track is playing very fast, but all last week was very fair to all running styles. Take a look at the charts on DRF or Equibase and then tell us what you think. Of course, by the time Saturday rolls around that could all change.

[cj]

Should be a good one.

Got a few solid contenders in here in Brother Francis, Liaison and Isn't He Clever. I haven't see the data, but I understand the SA surface is juiced up and few can come from behind and win - some liken the surface to conveyor belt. If the horse gets up front, cya!

Nothin' like the Derby Trail. Lookin forward to the next one.

Yep, the track is fast, but speed of the track is not necessarily an indication of a bias, and certainly is not at Santa Anita.

[redshift1]

Should be a good one.

Got a few solid contenders in here in Brother Francis, Liaison and Isn't He Clever. I haven't see the data, but I understand the SA surface is juiced up and few can come from behind and win - some liken the surface to conveyor belt. If the horse gets up front, cya!

Nothin' like the Derby Trail. Lookin forward to the next one.


http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/article.cgi?id=26398

From the above article:

Just one runner led all the way on the lead over the weekend from 13 dirt runs. With that said, a bunch of winners were pressing or tracking the lead early on.

[rastajenk]

Haven't seen any Bob and Johns yet. Is this the first stakes quality one, or are there others out there just under major-league level?

[redshift1]

Haven't seen any Bob and Johns yet. Is this the first stakes quality one, or are there others out there just under major-league level?

Very little success after 3 crops no graded winners so far.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/stallion-register/sr_sire_page.asp?refno=6878849

Check out the statistical summary (PDF) top right quadrant.

.

[Blenheim]

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/article.cgi?id=26398

From the above article:

Just one runner led all the way on the lead over the weekend from 13 dirt runs. With that said, a bunch of winners were pressing or tracking the lead early on.

Nice.

Will be keeping an eye on this part of the game. As it goes thus far on the Trail, it rained second race Lecomte day, rained second race Holy Bull day. The weather plays a part and can alter the outcome of a race, same w/racetrack maintenance. They play em' pretty tough over there at SA. Looking forward to the Robert B Lewis Stakes.

What say you to posting the possible entries data for the Sand F Davis . . . err excuse me, the Sam F Davis at Tampa Bay? Would make for an interesting handicapping contrast with surface at SA.

Nothin' like the Derby Trail. Lookin' forward to the next one.

[redshift1]

Entries

Brother Francis and Blueskienrainbows not entered, BF was a contender so
that leaves the 2,5 and 6 and one-time buzz horse Empire Way as the main threats.


1 ISN'T HE CLEVER L118 NAKATANI C S
2 LIAISON L123 BEJARANO R
3 GROOVIN' SOLO L118 ESPINOZA V
4 I'LL HAVE ANOTHER L118 GUTIERREZ MARIO
5 SKY KINGDOM L118 GARCIA MARTIN
6 ROUSING SERMON L118 TALAMO JOSEPH
7 EMPIRE WAY L118 ROSARIO JOEL
8 CHIPS ALL IN L118 QUINONEZ ALONSO


.

[Spalding No!]

Entries

Brother Francis and Blueskienrainbows not entered, BF was a contender so
that leaves the 2,5 and 6 and one-time buzz horse Empire Way as the main threats.


1 ISN'T HE CLEVER L118 NAKATANI C S
2 LIAISON L123 BEJARANO R
3 GROOVIN' SOLO L118 ESPINOZA V
4 I'LL HAVE ANOTHER L118 GUTIERREZ MARIO
5 SKY KINGDOM L118 GARCIA MARTIN
6 ROUSING SERMON L118 TALAMO JOSEPH
7 EMPIRE WAY L118 ROSARIO JOEL
8 CHIPS ALL IN L118 QUINONEZ ALONSO


.

Pretty contentious race all the way around, even Chips All In, Isn't He Clever, and I'll Have Another have their merits. Empire Way and Groovin' Solo have a lot of pedigree to lean on.

[redshift1]

PP's

http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/baffert_724447.pdf

Ah, Squall LInda, producer of Street Hero and Premier Pegasus now bred to Bob and John giving us Groovin' Solo, long shot winner last out with an excuse in the Futurity.

I'll go with the 1,2.4.5 finishers from the Futurity whoever has the best odds:

Liaison
Rousing Sermon
Sky Kingdom
Empire Way


.

[Dahoss9698]

I think Isn't He Clever is going to be a handful in here.

[redshift1]

PP's here, previous link not working.



http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm

[Blenheim]

Eighty-one percent speed bias for the meet. Sixty-seven percent speed bias last week. Still a few days before the race, but doubtful racetrack management can level the playing field. Some blistering fast, tough and long workouts in this group. Those five furlong workouts in 59 n/c, six furlong workouts in 71 and those seven furlong workouts in 86 n/c mean business.

In contrast, the best El Padrino could do was 60.2 for five furlongs, best Algorithms could do was 60.0 for five furlongs. The Santa Anita horses stomp the Gulfstream Park horses on a neutral track. :cool:

No doubt Baffert will be tough to beat in this one, but at this point in time I'm leaning towards the Cho Myung Kwon horse in here. Lovin' those workouts, gets a jock switch, goes with blinkers again, his running style fits what appears to be a contentious first half and he has the best BRIS speed rating on the surface - just may lack sufficient readiness.

:3::2::6:

Nothin' like the Derby Trial. Lookin' forward to the Robert B Lewis.

[redshift1]

business.


No doubt Baffert will be tough to beat in this one, but at this point in time I'm leaning towards the Cho Myung Kwon horse in here. Lovin' those workouts, gets a jock switch, goes with blinkers again, his running style fits what appears to be a contentious first half and he has the best BRIS speed rating on the surface - just may lack sufficient readiness.



Lot's to like with the 3 maybe about 8-10/1 a legitimate long-shot. Sky Kingdom has also won at the track and at today's distance in a higher rated race.

[Blenheim]

It will be interesting to see if he is sufficiently prepared for this challenge. Just broke his maiden and then going in a G2 - Kwon is asking the horse to do an awful lot against some good stock, one of which was just listed fifth on the EFH. His odds likely will be long as you have noted.

Don't know that I've seen many of em' work in 58.2. I took a look at the fractions, runs the third in less than 24 . . . he matches up here and he has the early speed, endurance and determination needed for this kind. If he doesn't back out of it due to lack of readiness and should he relax behind the speed down the backstretch, he may have something for em' turnin' for home. Didn't Kwon train Premier Pegasus in an upset in the San Felipe last year? This horse has similar breeding.

I'm thinkin' this is gonna be a good one!

Nothin' like the Derby Trail. Lookin' forward to the Robert B. Lewis.

[holmmd]

Interesting race. Will watch for potential betbacks but the Derby winner ain't comin' from out West.

[Spalding No!]

Interesting race. Will watch for potential betbacks but the Derby winner ain't comin' from out West.

What makes you say that? This Robert Lewis race seems loaded, and Sham winner Out Of Bounds looks like he has a world of potential. Fast sprinters Secret Circle, Consulado, and Midnight Transfer still have a chance to stretch out as well. Creative Cause is also in the wings.

[holmmd]

What makes you say that? This Robert Lewis race seems loaded, and Sham winner Out Of Bounds looks like he has a world of potential. Fast sprinters Secret Circle, Consulado, and Midnight Transfer still have a chance to stretch out as well. Creative Cause is also in the wings.

Just my opinion on the horses running out West right now that are on the Derby trail. Over the past few years, they've all looked good (to average) running against each other but (save Looking at Lucky and POTN) have flamed out come Derby time. I don't think any of the horses running out West right now are of the same Derby caliber of LAL or POTN and I don't think they will be able to compete with the horses running in NY or Fla.

For sprints, I think Secret Circle will prove best of everyone going right now but he's not a Derby contender imo.

Then again, I could be wrong (but I will be putting my money where my mouth is come Derby time).

[Spalding No!]

Just my opinion on the horses running out West right now that are on the Derby trail. Over the past few years, they've all looked good (to average) running against each other but (save Looking at Lucky and POTN) have flamed out come Derby time. I don't think any of the horses running out West right now are of the same Derby caliber of LAL or POTN and I don't think they will be able to compete with the horses running in NY or Fla.

When you consider the last several Classic winners, you realize they can come from anywhere. Tampa, Turfway, Sunland, etc. NY and FL haven't been well represented, either. Even a horse like Big Brown is atypical to what you expect leading up to the TC.

I think you can make the case that California's impact on the Classics was temporarily derailed by Pro-Ride. Last year's bunch was light and decimated by injury (Premier Pegasus, The Factor, Jaycito, Tapizar). This looks like a deeper group.

[holmmd]

When you consider the last several Classic winners, you realize they can come from anywhere. Tampa, Turfway, Sunland, etc. NY and FL haven't been well represented, either. Even a horse like Big Brown is atypical to what you expect leading up to the TC.

I think you can make the case that California's impact on the Classics was temporarily derailed by Pro-Ride. Last year's bunch was light and decimated by injury (Premier Pegasus, The Factor, Jaycito, Tapizar). This looks like a deeper group.

Anywhere but California but I hear you on the Pro-Ride argument. Time will tell. Creative Cause is the best of bunch imo but he has to make a big leap forward to show he can compete with the NYC and Fla crop.

[redshift1]

Anywhere but California

Guess the 2010 Preakness doesn't count.

nor

The 2005 Derby.

[holmmd]

Guess the 2010 Preakness doesn't count.

nor

The 2005 Derby.

already excepted Looking at Lucky from my statement and I'm talking about the past few years (i.e. 3-4 and not 5+).

My point is I don't see any CA horses the caliber of LAL this year.

[redshift1]

Fair enough, I missed your earlier reference to LAL. Rating NY, Florida and California I would go:

1. Flordia
2. California
3. NY

If you go by top 25, 3YR Old Beyers, FL and CA have about 72% or about 18 of the top numbers. NY has 8%.

If you go by 3YR Old Graded Earnings the list is again dominated by FL and CA.

Will know a little more after the weekends racing but I expect the CA horses to be competitive in the Classics.

.

[RXB]

Very little success after 3 crops no graded winners so far.


Bob and John has had only one crop of runners so far, not three.

I'd put a bigger red mark against Isn't He Clever for sire reasons than Groovin' Solo. Smarty Jones has had four crops of runners, all when he was being bred to predominantly blueblooded mares, and to-date has exactly one Gr2 win to show for it (no Gr 1 wins).

[redshift1]

Bob and John has had only one crop of runners so far, not three.

I'd put a bigger red mark against Isn't He Clever for sire reasons than Groovin' Solo. Smarty Jones has had four crops of runners, all when he was being bred to predominantly blueblooded mares, and to-date has exactly one Gr2 win to show for it (no Gr 1 wins).

Statistical summary for the registered progeny of Bob and John:
Northern Hemisphere

3 crops
160 foals
2 crops of racing age
135 foals of racing age
44 current 2 year old foals
25 yearlings
0 weanlings

Yes, 3 crops 1 actually racing he could improve.


.

[Simple Syrup]

Back to the race iteself, I was hoping to get 7/2 on Rousing Sermon. Doesn't look like we'll get there.

[turninforhome10]

Chips All In converts grass form from last and hangs on for the win. Isnt He Clever don't hit the board. Willing to eat the words

[turninforhome10]

What a worthless race. Looked like QH riders at Rui. Chips all in had to have gotten stepped on going into the first turn and what about Laison. Absolutley nothing gained from this one other than maybe lost a couple.

[Simple Syrup]

Will be a big Tri payout if no one gets taken down.

[Tom]

Well, this year's triple crown bunch is off to a good start! :lol:

[JustRalph]

Doug O'Neill pulls another heist...........

patiently awaiting the blood results......... :lol:

[Pell Mell]

I loved the way all the preps turned out today. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[Blenheim]

Wonderfully tough game, can't say as I remember lovin' it more than I do right now.
~
How can it possibly be that the three longest prices on the board capture win, place and show? I still get a :lol: just thinkin' about it. Sure hated for the jockey of Liaison to have that tumble and hope he comes out of it tougher than when he went in. Fun to watch the :3: horse sittin' tight at the half mile marker and goin' into the turn - sure looked tough. Thought he might run the race I thought he might run and awful he and the favorite had that altercation. Good to know he belongs in this bunch but sadly they took his number down . . . we'll see what he has for em' next time out; need a jock switch.

The drama thickens.

For those numerically inclined take a look at the parameters thus far along the Trail: http://www.chef-de-race.com/pace_parameters/2012_derby_pace_parameters.htm No one does it better.

Nothin' like the Derby Trail. Lookin' forward to the next one.

[redshift1]

Wonderfully tough game, can't say as I remember lovin' it more than I do right now.
~
How can it possibly be that the three longest prices on the board capture win, place and show? I still get a :lol: just thinkin' about it. Sure hated for the jockey of Liaison to have that tumble and hope he comes out of it tougher than when he went in. Fun to watch the :3: horse sittin' tight at the half mile marker and goin' into the turn - sure looked tough. Thought he might run the race I thought he might run and awful he and the favorite had that altercation. Good to know he belongs in this bunch but sadly they took his number down . . . we'll see what he has for em' next time out; need a jock switch.

The drama thickens.

For those numerically inclined take a look at the parameters thus far along the Trail: http://www.chef-de-race.com/pace_parameters/2012_derby_pace_parameters.htm No one does it better.

Nothin' like the Derby Trail. Lookin' forward to the next one.


You were close on the 3 before the DQ nice job.

[holmmd]

will say it again...2012 Derby winner ain't coming from the West.

[turninforhome10]

Wonderfully tough game, can't say as I remember lovin' it more than I do right now.
~
How can it possibly be that the three longest prices on the board capture win, place and show? I still get a :lol: just thinkin' about it. Sure hated for the jockey of Liaison to have that tumble and hope he comes out of it tougher than when he went in. Fun to watch the :3: horse sittin' tight at the half mile marker and goin' into the turn - sure looked tough. Thought he might run the race I thought he might run and awful he and the favorite had that altercation. Good to know he belongs in this bunch but sadly they took his number down . . . we'll see what he has for em' next time out; need a jock switch.

The drama thickens.

For those numerically inclined take a look at the parameters thus far along the Trail: http://www.chef-de-race.com/pace_parameters/2012_derby_pace_parameters.htm No one does it better.

Nothin' like the Derby Trail. Lookin' forward to the next one.


Noticed that Secret Circle is down towards the bottom with pretty nice 1fr to 3fr numbers and TE. Breeders Cup Juvenile Sprint winner looks pretty solid on pedigree having 2 professional points and love the Smarten and Forli on the bottom.

[Dark Horse]

War zone at SA today. Won a trifecta in race 3, only to have to wait ten minutes for the first inquiry of the day. The wrong side of forever with a trifecta on the line. Then another race with another, shorter inquiry. Once again, no idea what the stewards were checking. For race 6, with the program delayed by 15 minutes already, I put a chunk on Rousing Sermon to beat Sky Kingdom, but sure enough there was another 10 minute inquiry before the result of that race was final. This time Bejarano, the rider of Liaison, had hit the ground, and there was an actual DQ. About time after combined inquires that took longer than the f*cking races. Wait a sec. Was that fallen rider the jockey of Prayer of Relief in the upcoming race 8? Never so little enjoyment out of a winning day. Come here for some sanity only to find someone with a tape stuck in his head that the Derby winner won't come out of a certain wind direction. Now that I know that I can rest at ease. Good night, gentlemen.

[redshift1]

will say it again...2012 Derby winner ain't coming from the West.



And, all birds can fly.


.

[rastajenk]

War zone at SA today. Won a trifecta in race 3, only to have to wait ten minutes for the first inquiry of the day. The wrong side of forever with a trifecta on the line. Then another race with another, shorter inquiry. Once again, no idea what the stewards were checking. For race 6, with the program delayed by 15 minutes already, I put a chunk on Rousing Sermon to beat Sky Kingdom, but sure enough there was another 10 minute inquiry before the result of that race was final. This time Bejarano, the rider of Liaison, had hit the ground, and there was an actual DQ. About time after combined inquires that took longer than the f*cking races. Wait a sec. Was that fallen rider the jockey of Prayer of Relief in the upcoming race 8? Never so little enjoyment out of a winning day. Come here for some sanity only to find someone with a tape stuck in his head that the Derby winner won't come out of a certain wind direction. Now that I know that I can rest at ease. Good night, gentlemen.Mama told me there'd be Days Like This.

[Pell Mell]

I think Isn't He Clever is going to be a handful in here.

A handful of what? :lol:

[Dahoss9698]

A handful of what? :lol:

Crap, like your newsletter.

[Pell Mell]

Crap, like your newsletter.

Dahoss, I thank you for all the help...every time you come out with your shitty remarks, aside from making a fool of your self, you drive a ton of hits to my blog and I pick up more clients...thanks again. :cool:

PS..you sound like a guy that use to be on another horses site...went by the name of Gambler...

[Dahoss9698]

Dahoss, I thank you for all the help...every time you come out with your shitty remarks, aside from making a fool of your self, you drive a ton of hits to my blog and I pick up more clients...thanks again. :cool:

PS..you sound like a guy that use to be on another horses site...went by the name of Gambler...

Don't quit your day job to become a detective. Never have posted on another site as gambler.

Let's remember something. You're selling something, I'm not. The one making a fool of themselves is you.

You're welcome for the help. Judging by your pleas here and on your blog, you need all of the help you can get.

[Pell Mell]

Don't quit your day job to become a detective. Never have posted on another site as gambler.

Let's remember something. You're selling something, I'm not. The one making a fool of themselves is you.

You're welcome for the help. Judging by your pleas here and on your blog, you need all of the help you can get.

Only because you have nothing worth selling...you can't even give it away...it's not the help as much as the fun seeing somebody as envious as you take a shit-fit..you are sad... :sleeping:

[toussaud]

at this rate i think you could do worse than to blindly wager on whatever europe sends to the derby

[PaceAdvantage]

Dahoss, I thank you for all the help...every time you come out with your shitty remarks, aside from making a fool of your self, you drive a ton of hits to my blog and I pick up more clients...thanks again. :cool:

PS..you sound like a guy that use to be on another horses site...went by the name of Gambler...How come you don't post picks here anymore? I recall you started posting picks about a year ago, then stopped abruptly when they performed less than admirably.

What gives?

[redshift1]

Back to The Robert B Lewis:

I'll Have Another received a 96 Beyer, tops among the 3YR Old stakes
run this weekend. The son of Flower Alley (Travers winner) appeared comfortable with the distance, no word on next start.

[cj]

Back to The Robert B Lewis:

I'll Have Another received a 96 Beyer, tops among the 3YR Old stakes
run this weekend. The son of Flower Alley (Travers winner) appeared comfortable with the distance, no word on next start.

I had his 1/2 and 3/4 as a few lengths slower than his speed figure. It looks like he was nice and relaxed. It is a good sign he can go longer, but it was an easy trip.

[redshift1]

I had his 1/2 and 3/4 as a few lengths slower than his speed figure. It looks like he was nice and relaxed. It is a good sign he can go longer, but it was an easy trip.


So, you're assigning speed numbers to each point of call for ITA's race.

And the 46.77/1:10.52 calls yield a lower number than the final speed figure. If I'm understanding that correctly then he is accelerating at a faster rate in the latter part of the race? I'm trying to equate that with the fractional times.



23.03, 46.77, 1:10.52, 1:34.52, 1:40.84
23.03....23.74....23.57....24.00....6.30

.

[cj]

So, you're assigning speed numbers to each point of call for ITA's race.

And the 46.77/1:10.52 calls yield a lower number than the final speed figure. If I'm understanding that correctly then he is accelerating at a faster rate in the latter part of the race? I'm trying to equate that with the fractional times.



23.03, 46.77, 1:10.52, 1:34.52, 1:40.84
23.03....23.74....23.57....24.00....6.30

.

Yes, exactly. The figures aren't just based on raw times though. They are based on what has been proven to be the most efficient way to run each distance, and adjusted for track speed.