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Suff
12-16-2003, 09:07 PM
I picked this up from the Teleconference. The Comittee that decides if a race is graded , and then if it shall be a Grade 1, 2 or 3.

Couple of interesting quotes I picked up... It seems to me that the committee goes so far as to say they don't care so much if a race is a Great Race, in a full field, with a 125 Beyer winner. They look at the Pedigree of the winner as thier most influencial Factor in deciding which races are on the Bubble for upgrading or downgrading a certain race. They go back 5 years on all a races winners..... Examining 3 bloodlines back. And they boldly state that the Primary reason for doing this... is what a BloodLine is worth in the Sales Catalog.....

Thats a weak version of Insider trading... seeing as the Classic Bloodlines are Centralized in one location... Mainly KY. Or Bought for gazillions of dollars and overseas somewhere.

Here's a quote from a member of the Graded Stakes Comittee


Rollin Baugh: Well, I think there's two economic factors – major factors that work here. The (genesis) of the Graded Stakes process was to put standards on an international basis into the sales catalog. And while getting into the races we now see, like Breeders’ Cup and other races where there's going to be an (overdrawn) field, there is an enormous impact on the catalog page.



Because if you, as a performing horse or as a breeding animal, if you produce an animal that is graded one, two, or three – and obviously grade one, being the most significant, you're talking of hundreds of thousands of dollars in appreciated value of that animal or the pedigree that it's associated with. So the catalog page plays an enormous role from an economic point of view

Does he not sound like he is sort of saying that even though the breeders cups are FULL Field Tough races,,,, If You can win a weak Grade I in a field of 5 at any ole track... and you have the CORRECT Bloodline... That race is in Good standing?




The next quote I pickled up...

Rollin Baugh: Well, no. I think that the people that are on the committee are acutely aware of the sales environment. I mean, some of the (racing secretaries) possibly don't get the (sales) as frequently as the rest of us whether we're going as agents, or principals, or anything else. But it is something that people – it's a major part of the industry.



A lot of people who bet on horses, and to some extent, the people who report on horses don't get into the pedigree possibly in the depth that we might, because the catalog page could represent three generations (uniformly). But it's a very interesting aspect of it, and it would be interesting from my point of view to see more of that, you know, discussed in the press

He implys that Racing secretaries and The Bettors and even the Reporters don't understand the how's and why's of it... In a round about way. But I understand that quote to mean,,,

"We have to protect the Value of the Stallions that bring the most money at the sales"

The whole thing is Hoisted on its own Pretard ...

here's the link

http://www.ntra.com/news.asp?type=news&id=10573

btw.. Could this be why it agitates them when a NYBRED Gelding wins the Derby and Preakness.. It's a real walllet Buster when that happens... Breeding industry takes a 50 Million dollar long term hit with no Derby 2003 pedigree to sell. and this is also the seed of the "anti-nyra" sentiment in racing... anti-ny... The big bloodlines are in KY , in the hands of a few,, and they want to keep it that way..

You may remember that the first Person the Miami Herald Reporter called when he saw the Santos Photo.

He called a Kentucky Racing Official. And that Official was ambivalent at best,,,and may have even been cagey enough to steer the thing into the paper. I saw his quotes to the reporter.. they were cyrptic. He all but told him.. Go with it!

JustRalph
12-16-2003, 10:50 PM
Originally posted by Suff
btw.. Could this be why it agitates them when a NYBRED Gelding wins the Derby and Preakness.. It's a real walllet Buster when that happens... Breeding industry takes a 50 Million dollar long term hit with no Derby 2003 pedigree to sell. and this is also the seed of the "anti-nyra" sentiment in racing... anti-ny... The big bloodlines are in KY , in the hands of a few,, and they want to keep it that way.

Suff: Great post. I never thought of it that way when I read about the graded stakes committee. Damn sure makes a bunch of sense. A gelding winning forced an unheard of vacuum in the breeding business this coming year (and after for that matter) although I think a ton of that money will go to Empire Maker anyway......I suppose it might be the reason they were so pissed about War Emblem too.....thinking he might end up in Saudi...........although his Daddy went right back to KY. Very interesting thought process ............

VetScratch
12-17-2003, 04:54 AM
Suff,

You are on your way to becoming a sharp bluecollar horseman!

If the breeding/sales industry ever gets investigated like NYRA has been scrutinized, we could all look forward to better stakes and possibly lower takeout.

A lot of the bidding is contrived, cosmetic surgery masks flaws, pedigree values are overstated by agents/advisors, and the prices paid for yearlings who have not even been asked to show ability are outrageous. Inflated stud fees are built into the reserve prices and dictate where the planted shills start the bidding.

Horsemen could run for smaller everyday purses if front-end costs were more realistic.

When you posted on sale prices versus earnings, everyone should have seen that horse owners start out with half of their pockets already picked by the breeders.

Valuist
12-17-2003, 09:59 AM
This is more evidence that backs up what I've been saying all along: as handicappers, you're better off completely ignoring these arbitrary grades; look at the figures and the horses involved, not the grade assigned by a bunch of people who don't know how to handicap.

ceejay
12-17-2003, 11:54 AM
Originally posted by Valuist
you're better off completely ignoring these arbitrary grades;
I couldn't agree less. I handicap Graded stakes better than any other category of race ($2.41/$1 over the last 2 years). Ignoring grades is not the thing to do. Some races come up strong or weak. I look at the grades but make my own assessments of the true race quality. For example, a weak G1 field is an angle for a vunerable G1 winner. On the other side, I viewed the American Oaks this year as a G1 in my handicapping even thogh it was ungraded.

Valuist
12-17-2003, 12:23 PM
Ceejay-

You're saying you use your own judgement when looking at stakes races, which is what I was saying. You cite an example of an ungraded race which you felt was Grade 1 worthy. That is exactly what I'm talking about.

I think this is one reason why stakes races often produce the biggest overlays. Somehow, a myth was formed that there was some magical barrier between Gr 3 and Gr 2, and again from Grade 2 to 1 and one might have a better chance of swimming across the Atlantic than make the jump from Grade 3 to Grade 1, or so we were told. In reality, many horses skip back and forth between the grades.

Suff
12-17-2003, 04:37 PM
Originally posted by VetScratch
Suff,

You are on your way to becoming a sharp bluecollar horseman!



Thanks... I guess. A horseman? Interesting. You may have seen where I said i had backside credentials at Suffolk for about 8-10 years? I always preferred to be a Horse Player, rather than be involved backside.

My father had a business relationship with Suffolk Downs and I went backside 3 times a week to do his bidding. I always hurried backside so I could spend more time out front with the Gamblers.

But I do enjoy going backside...and all the guys that went backside with me at Saratoga will attest that I know how to Navigate in and around the stable area. So Thank you for the nice word.

I wish I could say Your on your way to being a sharp white collar Horse player. But I don't have enough to go on... You've only thrown up one race in your career here. And if you aren't famous now...if you hit that $3000.00 SUPER... You sure would be.. You came within a whisker of having that Ticket 37 times! Wow! THAT WAS a sweet ticket.... But as Tom likes to say..

2nd place is the first Loser. And your 0 for Stugatz! in Picking races here. I'll make a deal with you.. I'll keep posting Information in an attempt to be a 1/2 ass Horseman.... and you pop into the PIK4 and attempt to be a 1/2 ass horse player.

Deal?

keilan
12-17-2003, 06:21 PM
You've only thrown up one race in your career here. And if you aren't famous now...if you hit that $3000.00 SUPER... You sure would be.. You came within a whisker of having that Ticket 37 times! Wow! THAT WAS a sweet ticket...

And in a 7 horse field no less. That's very impressive, and only missed by a whisker. ;)

Suff
12-17-2003, 06:27 PM
Originally posted by keilan
And in a 7 horse field no less. That's very impressive, and only missed by a whisker. ;)

I actually went so far as to send her a PM saying that it was a nice set of tits.. I mean tickets...ooops...

Bubbles
12-17-2003, 07:04 PM
Originally posted by Suff
I actually went so far as to send her a PM saying that it was a nice set of tits.. I mean tickets...ooops...

Life's big errors...:D ;) :)

VetScratch
12-17-2003, 10:14 PM
Originally posted by Bubbles
Life's big errors...:D ;) :) As a reflection of our times, I am afraid that too many of "life's big errors" would test positive for enhancements! :D :D