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andicap
12-16-2003, 01:39 PM
How many of you use these in your handicapping? By that I mean, designating past races as either "Slow," "average" or "fast" paced" and relating them to final times so that an "E" horse would look better next race if coming out an "F-A" designated race to one where it appears there is less pace.
Conversely an "S" horse coming from an "S-A" race might be upgraded if the pace looks stronger but the horses have about the same final times.

This is what Quirin talked about/ I've never really incorporated it, but I'm looking at doing so now if it's not a waste of time.

cj
12-16-2003, 02:30 PM
I think using race shapes is very enlightening, and can lead you to many hits, especially closers on the bottom side of exactas. It is important to know something about the winner of the race in question. For example, a race goes in say 65-80, or slow-average, I would look at the closer who was disadvantaged but still made up some ground while wide. But, if I know a horse who was right next to him on the backstretch was able to power by and win the race, I'd be more skeptical. Hope these ramblings make sense!

alysheba88
12-16-2003, 03:38 PM
Thats why charts are so important. It is imperative that you know how other horses in the race were compromised (or not) from the pace.

If the speed horses went 1-2-3 around the clock the horse who looked like he fought on despite fast fractions doesnt look so great if you see all the speed held. Same deal on closers. If the top three finishers closed you would certainly want to know that.

Like seeing races where one horses closed into slow fractions and no one else did. These horses performance often look deceptively bad when in reality it may have been a strong effort

so.cal.fan
12-16-2003, 03:56 PM
Good point, Alysheba......I must admit, I have been lax in reading my charts........thanks for the wakeup call!

Tom
12-16-2003, 08:19 PM
I like to use the race shape to evaulate a performance. One I really look for is a horse who ran something like

3-2 1-1 1-hd 4-5

Now, if the race was Slow-Fast, this guy made up ground early, against horses who were lazy and then faded agains a fast pace. His own F3 might be average or fast, but looks like he tired. In fact, he might be the best "closer" today.

andicap
12-17-2003, 03:45 AM
Tom,

Are you using the race-shapes from HTR? I've never been able to make them work very well a la Quinn. But I might have misapplied them. If I could eliminate just one contender using this method it would prove invaluable to me.

Have you?

CJ, thanks, it made perfect sense!


Alysheba, the late Ron Cox gave a seminar at the Handicapping Expo in the early 90s on that very subject -- reading the charts. One of the few tapes from that Expo that I listened to several times.

GR1@HTR
12-17-2003, 08:33 PM
When I ran some stuff on this in access, Closers had the best ROI in slow pace shape races (cause no pace cappers bet closers in a projected paceless race) and Fr1 horses had a really good roi in fast race shape races.

cj
12-17-2003, 10:27 PM
I tried in the past to try to predict the pace of today's race, and it is a waste of time for me. I'd rather bet the overall abilities of the horses and let the race play itself out. Like GR1 says, going against the conventional wisdom produces nice prices.

As far as the shape thing goes, I much prefer to base ability of the animal looking at the race shapes of past races. I know what the shape was. I have no idea what the shape will be today.

alysheba88
12-17-2003, 11:03 PM
I think too much attention is paid to raw or even adjusted times and drawing too many conclusions about the pace of the race. Its not necessarily the fractions but the amount of pressure. The horse who engages in a three way battle for the lead in 46.1 may collapse, but the same horse, if loose in 45.2 may be uncatchable. Fractions dont tell the whole story.

so.cal.fan
12-17-2003, 11:04 PM
Grade1.....that is really interesting!
Indicates handicappers are over betting favorable running styles?

BillW
12-17-2003, 11:21 PM
In a race where the pace is projected to be hot, people often seem to assume that every E type is going to be cooked. All E types are not equal ... hence some nice prices (or at least nicer than can otherwise be expected).

Bill

Tom
12-17-2003, 11:21 PM
I use the race shapes I get from my figs and pars. I use it more to identify key races/horses.
The HTR numbers are more performance based and the shapes do not work for me as well. The best way to use the HTR race shapes, for me, is to look the pace of race shape and then re-assing it based on today's par, not the last race par. But I am still more comfortable using my own figs for this. HTR has other ratings that are much better than the Pac numbers and race pars.
I prefer to use the Pac numbers in conjunction with teh Fig2 numbers and just compare them horse to horse and forget pars and shapes altogether.

Fastracehorse
12-18-2003, 02:17 AM
I don't normally designate certain races as fast/slow.

I call race-shape: Where the horse will be sitting and if this position will be favorable.

I believe my adjusted speed fig tells me what a horse ran. It helps when the horse is under-rated.

fffastt

alysheba88
12-18-2003, 08:15 AM
The one thing that I changed in 2003 (after witnessing it happen seemingly hundreds of times) was automatically concluding that when there was a bunch of early speed in the race that a speed duel was inevitable. So many times thats not the case. The speed of the speed gets out and goes wire to wire. The other jockeys take back fearing a duel. Something to watch for

Zaf
12-18-2003, 08:23 PM
What are the best ways to predict, Who will be the speed of the speed ?

ZAFONIC

so.cal.fan
12-18-2003, 08:54 PM
The class of the key race you take the best pace fraction from.

Niko
12-18-2003, 10:52 PM
I've seen that happen many times in turf races and I gave up trying to figure when it would or wouldn't happen. The trainers and jockeys see the same thing in the past performances as we do. There's a lot of speed horses in the turf race so everybody outwits each other and nobody pressures the lead horse and the horse suprises everybody and wires the field.
Now I just bet the horses and odds except in rare situations.

DJofSD
12-19-2003, 01:07 AM
One thing I like to examine when asking who might be speed of the speed is the "ST" or start position when breaking from the gate.

I look at all of the lines in the PP's not just the last. I will balance it against how many runners are in each race. A horse that shows 2's or 3's when running against full or near full fields is one thing. It's another when the race is at HOL especially this year with so many very short fields.

DJofSD

COUGAR
12-19-2003, 08:38 AM
I think charting and predicting pace shapes is very important to ones bottom line. I used to do some charting years ago. There is a new book by Nick Borg.. OFF THE CHARTS that would help people unfamiliar in this area. Some work involved.. yes, but well worth the time.

COUGAR
12-19-2003, 08:54 AM
P.S...

Anybody know of a program that can do the charting and alert the user to what a chartist might want to see? If not, i think that would be a great program for some one to design.. I would buy it.

alysheba88
12-19-2003, 09:29 AM
Cougar, I would not trust any type of program for this. Like many aspects of handicapping this falls into the art category not necessarily science, in my opinion.

Fastracehorse
12-19-2003, 02:42 PM
Those grass races do get thefts - P Val likes to rate in those events in S. Cal. - which to those that are not familiar with his dirt style, may be surprising.

fffastt

plainolebill
12-19-2003, 10:10 PM
When David Flores is riding a horse with a good post and a little speed on the turf, I always pay attention.

Buddha
12-19-2003, 11:24 PM
Originally posted by zafonic
What are the best ways to predict, Who will be the speed of the speed ?

ZAFONIC

Create pace and speed figs :) All jokes aside, without anything but a program, I think the best way to judge the speed of the speed is to do is what DJ said and find out how well they come out of the gate, and also pay attention to who is on the horse. Some jockeys are better getting the horse going early, while some just can't seem to do that.

Tom
12-20-2003, 08:35 AM
Good point about the break call-if you have two horese that are need to lead types, and they are usually "1" at the first call, look for an edge on the start call:

[code]
Horse A
1 1
1 1
2 1
1 1

Horse B

4 1
3 1
5 1
3 1
[code/]


By the time B gets his early run going, A might well be long gone.

Another good thing is using velocity numbers, a horse with an
early running style and a fpd advantage of .50 or more is productive. Some recent hits using this angle at AQI:
12/13 6 of these guys on the card:
R1 A One Rocket $6.30
R7 Balmy $53.50
R8 Thunder Blitz $11.80

12/18 5 on this card (2 placed one show)

R4 Foraml Event $8.50
R6 Sunny Ridge Sam $7.70


12/19 3 on this card:
R1 Hussar $5.60

Overall, 14 met the angle, 6 won, bet $28 return $79.80

Short term impressive. Long term?????? Who cares..I am betting this week. When this stops, so do I.

Fastracehorse
12-20-2003, 06:14 PM
Being able to determine the speed of the speed is the most fundamental and elementary aspect of handicpping.

How else does a would-be handicapper get a taste of self-imposed control of the game?? ( other than betting the tote board fave ).

What I am trying to say is that new players need to know that there is a method to pick contenders. A method that doesn't necessarily follow the majority opinion.

There are alot of speed of the speed 'cappers - and the majority probably have some talent - talented because it takes some level of insight to be able to understand the importance of speed, and some intelligence to be able to determine it.

Having said the above, I believe that players at a high-level understand that while speed of the speed types have their days, the higher level player knows their definciencies as well - that is, tactical types are the better play overall.

Importantly, the determination of THEE speed can be done by comparative analyses of the contenders. Analyses of the positional calls ( lengths behind leader ) at the early fractional calls. No program is needed.

fffastt