Super Bowl pointspread

[horses4courses]

Anyone hazard a guess on the spread for Super Bowl XLVI?
Patriots will be favorite - but by how much?

I say they will be around -3.5 over either NFC team, with the total somewhere around 48-49.
But, what do I know?

[lamboguy]

pats vs giants -4

pats vs. fortyninners -5 1/2

[Valuist]

I like EITHER the Giants or Niners to beat the Patriots straight up. I seriously doubt you will see New England favored by more than a field goal. Its a neutral site game.

New England has now won its FIRST game against a team who was over .500 this year (and of course they didn't cover the spread in doing so). They were not overly impressive.

Both the Niners and Giants are better defensively than the Patriots and they clearly have more toughness, which is more important than finesse in the postseason.

[horses4courses]

I like EITHER the Giants or Niners to beat the Patriots straight up. I seriously doubt you will see New England favored by more than a field goal. Its a neutral site game.

New England has now won its FIRST game against a team who was over .500 this year (and of course they didn't cover the spread in doing so). They were not overly impressive.

Both the Niners and Giants are better defensively than the Patriots and they clearly have more toughness, which is more important than finesse in the postseason.

I agree with you, and am likely to bet the NFC champ to win the SB.
However, the linemakers will factor in Brady.
It will be interesting to see the number.

[BetHorses!]

I like EITHER the Giants or Niners to beat the Patriots straight up. I seriously doubt you will see New England favored by more than a field goal. Its a neutral site game.

New England has now won its FIRST game against a team who was over .500 this year (and of course they didn't cover the spread in doing so). They were not overly impressive.

Both the Niners and Giants are better defensively than the Patriots and they clearly have more toughness, which is more important than finesse in the postseason.


Pats might be -6.5 or -7 over 49ers. Lower vs Giants

[slew101]

I'd guess

NE -4 vs. NY
NE -6 vs. SF

[Valuist]

Amazing the lack of respect San Fran gets.

There's no doubt in my mind the NFC was better than the AFC this year.

[BetHorses!]

Amazing the lack of respect San Fran gets.

There's no doubt in my mind the NFC was better than the AFC this year.


I could be wrong. Slew's guesses seem on the money.
No doubt NFC better

[horses4courses]

I see NE -3.5 and 56 at The Greek

I don't think there would be 56 points in this game in 6 quarters.....

[Valuist]

Gimme the G-Men and the points.

Bookmaker.eu has New England -3 (-125) with the total same as The Greek.

[horses4courses]

+135 on NY

[pandy]

According to covers website the opening line is Patriots - 3.5

[canleakid]

In odds posted Sunday night by Cantor Gaming, the Patriots opened as three-point favorites over the New York Giants
The over-under was set at 53 points

[Marshall Bennett]

I'll be all over New England giving 3.5. Thought they would be favored by at least a touchdown. I expect Brady to have his way in this contest. A blowout isn't out of the question here.

[LottaKash]

I'll be all over New England giving 3.5. Thought they would be favored by at least a touchdown. I expect Brady to have his way in this contest. A blowout isn't out of the question here.

Ya think ?

If this were the "mid-season" Giants, I would tend to agree with you very much....No longer for me tho....The "recent" Giants have more than proved that they belong, by virtue of knocking off two of the best teams in all of the NFL...(the reasons and rationalizations aside)

But, Perhaps that is because I am a lifelong, raised on, NYG's fanboy...I gave them no chance to be where they are now, as of where they were at midway....

best,...

[horses4courses]

Ya think ?

If this were the "mid-season" Giants, I would tend to agree with you very much....No longer for me tho....The "recent" Giants have more than proved that they belong, by virtue of knocking off two of the best teams in all of the NFL...(the reasons and rationalizations aside)

But, Perhaps that is because I am a lifelong, raised on, NYG's fanboy...I gave them no chance to be where they are now, as of where they were at midway....

best,...

Agreed.
I think Brady is in for a rough time in this game.
That is an all-round excellent defense , and I don't think Eli will have half as many problems against NE as he did against the 49ers.
Giants win 27-20....... :ThmbUp:

[KingChas]

Agreed.
I think Brady is in for a rough time in this game.


Tom does not agree;

Brady struggled against the Ravens on Sunday, throwing two interceptions, no touchdowns and posting his worst passer rating of the season (57.5).

He acknowledged his poor play in postgame comments and said Monday morning he expects "the best game I've ever played" against the Giants.

[horses4courses]

Tom does not agree;

Brady struggled against the Ravens on Sunday, throwing two interceptions, no touchdowns and posting his worst passer rating of the season (57.5).

He acknowledged his poor play in postgame comments and said Monday morning he expects "the best game I've ever played" against the Giants.

Hmmm... would he ever say anything else? ;)

[Valuist]

Tom does not agree;

Brady struggled against the Ravens on Sunday, throwing two interceptions, no touchdowns and posting his worst passer rating of the season (57.5).

He acknowledged his poor play in postgame comments and said Monday morning he expects "the best game I've ever played" against the Giants.

I've got one thing to say to Brady, and I will quote Rob Halford from Judas Priest:

You got another thing comin'

[pandy]

As efficient as Brady was this year, I have noticed that his arm strength appears to be on the decline. I know this sounds strange if you look at his stats, but visually he does not have the zip on the ball that he used to. He's made adjustments, for instance he leads the receivers more, but at 34 years of age, he is beginning to show signs that his arm isn't the cannon it once was. Years ago when he had fast wide outs, like Randy Moss and Branch when he was in his prime, Brady could throw long as well as anyone, except perhaps Brett Farve.

But of course New England is such a well managed team that they have changed to a short passing offense with the prime targets being their two tight ends and a wide receiver, Wes Welker, who operates primarily as a slot receiver, so most of the passes are short to mid range, which is perfect for an aging quarterback. Very smart.

Brady is not that efficient when he gets a pass rush, he's slow, but with the short passing game to his two tight ends he can get rid of the ball quicker, which is one of the reasons why the Pats can score against a big pass rush.

To defense the Pats you have to use single coverage on the wide outs and try to keep everyone else in close range to keep the pressure on the two tight ends and Welker. Easier said than done.

[KingChas]

Hmmm... would he ever say anything else? ;)

"the best game I've ever played"

One of the stronger pre Super Bowl comment's I have ever heard.
Doesn't top Namath's but right up there.

Not a Pat or TB fan ,but let's admit Brady has had some great performances in his time.

Rather ballsy statement considering Giants defensive capabilities, don't you think?

[lamboguy]

the line is now PATS -3 and you have to lay $1.20 to bet the underdog in that proposition.


if i see 2 1/2 by any remote possibility, i will be on a plane to the desert to greet the fellows at the window's there.

[PhantomOnTour]

As efficient as Brady was this year, I have noticed that his arm strength appears to be on the decline. I know this sounds strange if you look at his stats, but visually he does not have the zip on the ball that he used to. He's made adjustments, for instance he leads the receivers more, but at 34 years of age, he is beginning to show signs that his arm isn't the cannon it once was. Years ago when he had fast wide outs, like Randy Moss and Branch when he was in his prime, Brady could throw long as well as anyone, except perhaps Brett Farve.

But of course New England is such a well managed team that they have changed to a short passing offense with the prime targets being their two tight ends and a wide receiver, Wes Welker, who operates primarily as a slot receiver, so most of the passes are short to mid range, which is perfect for an aging quarterback. Very smart.

Brady is not that efficient when he gets a pass rush, he's slow, but with the short passing game to his two tight ends he can get rid of the ball quicker, which is one of the reasons why the Pats can score against a big pass rush.

To defense the Pats you have to use single coverage on the wide outs and try to keep everyone else in close range to keep the pressure on the two tight ends and Welker. Easier said than done.
His arm never was a cannon. He had Randy Moss deep vs the Giants in the 2008 Bowl and couldn't get it to him...with 12seconds to go in the game.

[pandy]

I think the line may drop to 2 or 2 1/2, which I expected right from the beginning. Lines are based on the betting public's perception and the Vegas casinos know that a good percentage of the public will see that the Patriots had more wins than the Giants during the season and that the Patriots with Brady have won 3 Super Bowls and therefore the line has to favor the Pats. But in reality if you base the odds line on the talent, the way the teams are playing, and who they played during the season, the fact that the Giants beat the Pats in Foxboro this year and are playing much better now, the Giants actually should be slight favorites. I think the line will have to be adjusted down as more money comes in on the Giants.

[Valuist]

the line is now PATS -3 and you have to lay $1.20 to bet the underdog in that proposition.


if i see 2 1/2 by any remote possibility, i will be on a plane to the desert to greet the fellows at the window's there.

Will never cross over to 2 1/2. Way too much potential arbitrage risk to crosss 3.

[BetHorses!]

Will never cross over to 2 1/2. Way too much potential arbitrage risk to crosss 3.

I see 2.5's

Only about 15-20% of the total handle will wind up Giants +3.5

[elysiantraveller]

His arm never was a cannon. He had Randy Moss deep vs the Giants in the 2008 Bowl and couldn't get it to him...with 12seconds to go in the game.

Yup.

He's never had a cannon. He is just very accurate. Eli, however, does have a cannon.

[lamboguy]

I see 2.5's

Only about 15-20% of the total handle will wind up Giants +3.5i am hearing it will go down to 2, i wish i had bet the giants before their game against the fortyniner's, i could have got 4 1/2 and then i could have tried to trap the game.

under the -3 i got to go in with the patriots.

[Robert Goren]

Ya think ?

If this were the "mid-season" Giants, I would tend to agree with you very much....No longer for me tho....The "recent" Giants have more than proved that they belong, by virtue of knocking off two of the best teams in all of the NFL...(the reasons and rationalizations aside)

But, Perhaps that is because I am a lifelong, raised on, NYG's fanboy...I gave them no chance to be where they are now, as of where they were at midway....

best,...The "mid season" Giants went to Foxboro and beat the Pats 24-20 on Nov 6. How quickly we forget.

[slew101]

Both teams played very poorly in that game. Score was 0-0 at the half. Pats finished with 4 turnovers, Giants had at least two. Pats kicker missed a 27-yard FG in the first half.

The QBs struggled until the second half, and the Pats got killed with defensive penalties in the 4th quarter that set up two Giants TDs. The Giants also made a ton of mistakes in that game.

I got NE -135 on the ML, and jumped on it. Have a feeling the Pats are either going to win comfortably (like 37-23), or lose a close one again. Don't want to see the G-Men with the ball down 4 with 2 minutes left again.


The "mid season" Giants went to Foxboro and beat the Pats 24-20 on Nov 6. How quickly we forget.

[lamboguy]

this game is a big rivalry game because there are tons of GIANT fans in NEW ENGLAND to this day. before the PATS even exisited, everyone around here loved the GIANTS.

no doubt about it though, both are great franchise's, not in the same league as the YANKEES or CELTICS yet.

[pandy]

My complete analysis is on my website, I picked the Giants, more team speed, better and more experienced defense.

[BetHorses!]

i could have got 4 1/2 and then i could have tried to trap the game.




Where was it 4.5?

[slew101]

Think he means he could have played the NFC winner +4.5 in the Super Bowl before the NFC championship game.

Giants-49ers line was never even 4. It opened at -1.5, then stayed at 2.5 in most places, and 3 was the max in a couple places.

Where was it 4.5?

[Valuist]

One more Giant player gone from the Super Bowl winning team: Ahmad Bradshaw is waived.

[Striker]

One more Giant player gone from the Super Bowl winning team: Ahmad Bradshaw is waived.
Putting their faith into David Wilson and Andre Brown

[Valuist]

Putting their faith into David Wilson and Andre Brown

I thought both looked very good when given the opportunity. Wilson fumbled early on in the season and found himself in Coughlin's doghouse. That is one doghouse that is difficult to get out from.

[cj]

Putting their faith into David Wilson and Andre Brown

Running backs come, and running backs go. It is a short lived career for all but the elite.

[Stillriledup]

One more Giant player gone from the Super Bowl winning team: Ahmad Bradshaw is waived.

Fumbles too much.