Getting Crushed Need Help

[mrroyboy]

HiGuys
I have been getting buried. I made about 25 bets since Thursday and hit about 3 of them, Not longshots either. A monkey with a dart board could do better than that' It's not the money so much although it adds up when you include buying PP's It's just pissing me off big time. I am supposed to know Harness racing but I guess not.
Any and all suggestions will be welcome
Thank you all!!!

[jfdinneen]

mrroyboy,

Ask yourself - what edge do I have on the competition that is not already factored into the parimutuel prices (Wisdom Of Crowds)? If you have an edge on "The Public" then your current losing streak is probably just a statistical blip; if not then you will most likely lose your bankroll!

John

[Not4Love]

Sorry. Wish I could help. I had those same numbers this weekend playing
Thoroughbreds.

[wilderness]

A suggestion?

Did you analyze your seductions after the race?

1) We all have basic handicapping fundamentals that we follow.
2) Our fundamental methods (at least their end results) may vary over the course of time.
Ex:
There are periods where your 1st and 2nd choices are spot on and you cash tickets by betting those selections.

There are other periods, when you 3rd, 4th, and even 5th selections are winning more than your primary selections.

One needs to be aware of these changes in results, all the while remaining (NOT modifying) your fundamental methods, and wagering accordingly.

[Greyfox]

HiGuys
I have been getting buried. I made about 25 bets since Thursday and hit about 3 of them, Not longshots either. A monkey with a dart board could do better than that' It's not the money so much although it adds up when you include buying PP's It's just pissing me off big time. I am supposed to know Harness racing but I guess not.
Any and all suggestions will be welcome
Thank you all!!!

"Spit" happens.
When "Dame Fortune" doesn't smile your way... she doesn't.
But when she isn't in your favor....bet less.
If your handicapping methods are sound, then the tide will turn ...but not necessarily today or tomorrow. Welcome to the club. That's horse racing.
One exotic play of course can reverse all of those losses, but don't chase wildly just because you've done poorly.

[Vinman]

HiGuys
I have been getting buried. I made about 25 bets since Thursday and hit about 3 of them, Not longshots either. A monkey with a dart board could do better than that' It's not the money so much although it adds up when you include buying PP's It's just pissing me off big time. I am supposed to know Harness racing but I guess not.
Any and all suggestions will be welcome
Thank you all!!!

What tracks are you playing? What type of bets are you making? I would totally avoid the Meadowlands for at least the first month of the meet, until form establishes itself over the track. Until then, you may want to consider limiting your play to inside posts at half mile tracks, such as YR, Northfield & Maywood, where the inside posts have a big advantage, unlike the Big M. Insist on a top driver & trainer. Hopefully that will increase your batting average.

Vinman

[JustRalph]

A suggestion?

Did you analyze your seductions after the race?

I see your weakness.......if you are going to try and do other things while betting........ you can expect these results................. :lol:

[wilderness]

I see your weakness.......if you are going to try and do other things while betting........ you can expect these results................. :lol:

Ralph,
You know damned well that I meant after the night was over, as opposed to standing in line to wager on the next event ;)

[LottaKash]

For now Roy, I would offer, to stave off any further successive mounting losses, would be to continue to "play ONLY what you know", but along with that, limit your plays to only "the "3's" at any track where you are considering a play....

Meaning, find your horse as usual, but limit your play, to only playing when your "pick" has "all the "3's", going for it.....

1-one of the "3 best posts", at the track you find a good one at...
2-one of the "3 best drivers" at that track...
2-one of the "3 best trainers" at that track...

This way, if you have a decent looking horse that you determine that is in shape to win (by finding a competitive running line), and your pick can compete timewise with the all of the other horses that he is in with tonite, you have nothing but "good" percentages going for you....

It may limit your number of plays to begin with, but hey, you are trying to cut down on your losses aren't you?....Still, but by demanding that you get a GOOD POST, an EXCELLENT DRIVER, and a WINNING TRAINER, you will have the best of it percentage-wise, and by using these 3- factors that have a very powerful effect on the outcome of a "harness race", you will have much going for you...

In fact, when your losses are snowballing, as yours have lately, you may want to try to "limit" your play, along with the other winning factors, to just betting on your pick when he is in the "Very Best Post Only" .....Whatever that PP may be at the track that you are considering for play....

In fact, when I find a horse that I think has a great shot at winning, and I find that he is in the "SINGLE very BEST POST" of all, at that track....I usually put a little extra on that play....(percentages, you know)

For now Roy, you must find a way to cut your losses, so, by limiting your plays to the above, I am quite certain that your game will pick up some, and soon....

And, FWIW, many lesser advanced players, will often lessen or dilute the power of the "3's"....So, if you want to win more often you have to have as much going for you as you can....The 3's help in that regard, much...

GL Roy...I am rooting for you...

best,

[JBmadera]

sorry to hear about your misfortune.

when I get on a bad run I STOP. just like in trading, my biggest weakness as a handicapper is psychological (win = I am a good person, loss = I am a loser).

Once my head has cleared I first go back to paper betting only. As someone else mentioned I also review every paper wager after the race, watch the race replay and make notes in my journal.

Once I am ROI positive in paper wagering I go back "live" but I will only bet 1 unit until, again, I am ROI positive. After that I scale back in.

The good news is that there are millions of races coming the future and there is absolutely no reason to rush back into action.

good luck!

[Robert Goren]

If you are a system player, I will warn you that sometimes systems just plain stop working and when they do it is usually pretty dramatically.

[maddog42]

I see your weakness.......if you are going to try and do other things while betting........ you can expect these results................. :lol:

Whats wrong with betting seductive horses ? If a horse is not well built and has a skinny ass then it doesn't get my money.

[outofthebox]

What tracks are you playing? What type of bets are you making? I would totally avoid the Meadowlands for at least the first month of the meet, until form establishes itself over the track. Until then, you may want to consider limiting your play to inside posts at half mile tracks, such as YR, Northfield & Maywood, where the inside posts have a big advantage, unlike the Big M. Insist on a top driver & trainer. Hopefully that will increase your batting average.

VinmanI agree 100% about the Big M. I usually wait for a couple of races over the track. Streaks are funny, both winning and losing. Sometimes your handicapping is spot on but your stuck with first over trips and buried trips. You just have to suck up those kind of losses. Other nights you may be blessed with perfect trips and you feel like a handicapping genius. When the horses i bet get perfect trips and don't fire, that's usually a pretty good sign that my handicapping is off, and a good time to to take a break for a bit if it feels like i'm pressing a bit.

[mrroyboy]

Thank you all very much. I will follow your advice on everything. Right now I will mostly watch the races and root for the picks you guys post. You know what they say" If you make only mind bets all you can lose is your MIND!!! I lost that a long time ago so it's ok.
But I want to say something to the newbies on the site. The collective wisdom on this site is incredible. I am still amazed after serveral years. So you are at the right place to learn harness racing
Thank you again and good luck to all

[Ray2000]

One more point that needs mentioning, Roy, specially for any newbies getting into this game.
I'm assuming you're referring to Win betting where money management is just as important as race times.

1. Records
Absolutely, Positively, No exceptions...keep records of every wager. You have to know your Percent Win/Loss ROI over at least 500 Win bets with your picks. 6 bets a day (on paper is OK) for 3 months would suffice but 6 months would be better. You need this number (%ROI) to set your wager amount. If you have kept the programs and charts and know the post time odds of your picks, you can speed up this establishing your ROI. If this ROI turns out to be less than -5% on win bets then you have to QUIT this game or go back to the drawing board and revise your method.

2. Money Management
Use an ADW that gives you 5% rebates and allows for conditional win betting. Set your MAO (minimum acceptable odds) at 3/1 or higher at 0 minutes to post. Set an amount that you don't care if you lose it, say $200. Use this as your starting capital. Your starting bet size will be the ROI from the paper run plus the rebate, times you current capital. Example #1 use -3% ROI +5% rebate = 2% bet percent size. (2% x $200 =$4 bet to start). Example #2 use +4% ROI +5% rebate= 9% bet size. (If your ROI is higher than 4%, you don't need any advice from anyone :D ).

Set up a spreadsheet to keep track of your running balance using the current bet size and any winnings that occur. The 1st example I've given would allow for a 44 bet losing streak before tap out, the 2nd example can go for 28 bets before "Game over".

Good Luck

[mrroyboy]

Thank you Ray
Yes I do have to keep better records. I know that I have just been lazy about it. As far as ADW I live in Nevada which means not only can't I bet with an adw. I can't even watch races on their sites.

[mrroyboy]

And thank you for the winner 10th at Yonkers. My new plan of watching and rooting for your picks and betting some of them is paying off so far.

[pandy]

If I get into a bad streak it's usually because I'm betting too many horses that don't have inherent class.

Also, if you don't have my book, buy it and if you follow the system you can't lose betting harness races.

[mrroyboy]

Pandy I have your book and have read it many times. The thing is you switch around too much. First you talk about zip and Brt but then later you talk about star system etc but then you get into archives and talk about class drops and more. The book is good but very confusing. I will read it again.

[pandy]

Pandy I have your book and have read it many times. The thing is you switch around too much. First you talk about zip and Brt but then later you talk about star system etc but then you get into archives and talk about class drops and more. The book is good but very confusing. I will read it again.

I thought you had the book. Obviously there are some "angle" plays in there which are good. In fact Campbell brought in a $86 horse at the Meadowlands this meet that perfectly fit one of the angles in the book. But the basic BRT when combined with ZIP should be a steady winner if you don't bet underlays. One thing I did not cover in much detail is class but I think I'm going to do a follow up book concentrating on class. If you combine BRT, ZIP and make sure that each horse that you bet has a certain type of inherent class (particularly when compared to the overall class of the field), you will surely not have long losing streaks and you will show a profit if you avoid underlays.

Also, if you're on a bad streak, be extra selective. Good handicappers can get into a cold streak, it's part of the game. But the beautiful thing about betting harness as opposed to thoroughbreds is that it's easier to pick winners so you should be able to limit long run outs.

Of course sometimes you have to change tracks. If a track is killing me I get out and try another track. The winter that Santa Anita went to it's infamous and troublesome Cushion Track I took a beating because I was too arrogant to get out when things got off to a bad start in January. I learned a lesson from that winter and began to diversify.

[mrroyboy]

Thank you Pandy. I will follow your advice

[JBmadera]

If I get into a bad streak it's usually because I'm betting too many horses that don't have inherent class.

Also, if you don't have my book, buy it and if you follow the system you can't lose betting harness races.

I went to your site Pandy, which book? I use trackmaster pp's and harness eye for the Big M. Always love reading a good handicapping book.

thanks!

[pandy]

I went to your site Pandy, which book? I use trackmaster pp's and harness eye for the Big M. Always love reading a good handicapping book.

thanks!

it's called Trotpicks: Modern Harness Handicapping, at the trotpicks.com site. Thank you. You can check out reviews at Amazon.com.

[mrroyboy]

Yes the book is very good. Alot of good stuff about today's harness racing

[JBmadera]

it's called Trotpicks: Modern Harness Handicapping, at the trotpicks.com site. Thank you. You can check out reviews at Amazon.com.


thank you, just ordered it.

[pandy]

Thank you very much, I hope you enjoy it and it helps you enjoy harness racing even more.

[grant miller]

If your updating your book is the first one outdated?:confused:

[pandy]

If your updating your book is the first one outdated?:confused:

Not at all, in fact in the title is "Modern Harness Handicapping Methods". I'm not going to update the book, I may write a smaller book that deals with class handicapping, a difficult but intriguing subject. Class does make a difference. If you have two horses that are the fastest in the race and one of them has a class edge over the other that horse will prevail more often than not. It comes back to the old Cam Fella vs Its Fritz race, two top-speed horses but Cam Fella beat Fritz on class.

[badcompany]

Not at all, in fact in the title is "Modern Harness Handicapping Methods". I'm not going to update the book, I may write a smaller book that deals with class handicapping, a difficult but intriguing subject. Class does make a difference. If you have two horses that are the fastest in the race and one of them has a class edge over the other that horse will prevail more often than not. It comes back to the old Cam Fella vs Its Fritz race, two top-speed horses but Cam Fella beat Fritz on class.

How about age? I've found that all other things being equal, the older horse will generally prevail. I'm talking about a 3yr vs 4yr old, or a 4yr vs 5yr old.

[pandy]

I agree about age but at the same time I'll bet a 3yo against older horses later in the season if the odds are right and the horse has the ability.

[rowboat]

THAT IS ONE GREAT REPLY.NEVER ASK A BAD DRIVER OR TRAINER TO WIN.EVEN IF THEY WIN AND ITS AN OVERLAY BIG DEAL.HOWGOOD ARE U.HAVE U EVER HAD A WINNING STREAK AND WHAT WAS THE CAUSEPEOPLE DONT REALIZE THAT THEY ARE BETTER AT BETTING SOME CLASSES NOT EVERY ONE.ARE U BETTING EXACTAS AND LOSING WHILE PICKING THE WINNER.YOU HAVE TO FIND WHERE YOU ARE STRONG AND WEAK.ARE U PUSHING BETS.ITS LIKE FOOTBALL YOU ONLY LKE ONE GAME A 1 PM GAME.IF YOU LOSE THEN DONT PICK A F PM GAME AND THEN THE NITE GAME.YOU HAVE TO SPOT PLAY AND YOU CANT WIN UNLESS U KNOW HOW TO LOSE.NOBODY PICKED UP A BASKETBALL AND MADE THEIR FIRST FREE THROW

[rowboat]

IF I THINK BACK RIGHT THAT WAS A FATHER SON TEAM FROM FLORIDA WHO DROVE HIM.THEY HAD MATCH RACE I THINK THE SON DROVE AND WAS TOO WILD.CARMINE OR CAMPBELL ON THAT HORSE I THINK A DIFFERENT OUTCOME.YOU NEED A CLASS DRIVER ITS SO FUNN THAT I WAS LAYING IN BED AND I THOUGHT ABOUT THEM A FEW WEEKS AGO.THEY IN MY THOUGHTS WERE NOT GOOD RATERS OF HORSES BUT THEY WERE MAYBE LIKE HERVES MR CARAMEA WHO UST RAN NON STOP AND TIRED.THEY RATED HIM FFROM BEHIND BUT THEY COULD NOT FIND THE SPOT TO LET HIM GO.THAT HORSE AND GUTS I LOVED.CARAMEA DIED WHEN HERVES FARM WENT ON FIRE.

[rowboat]

I HAVE MEANT TO BUY THE BOOK.I THINK YOU MIGHT NOT HAVE ENOUGH EXPERINCE AND THATS NOT KNOCKING YOU.OKAY.FIRST WE HAVE TO PAY HOMAGE TO SPORTS EYE WHO WENT INTO COURT TO PUBLISH REAL CHARTS FOR US 2ND RATERS.THE TRACK PROGRAM HAD THE TOP OF THE STRETCH.SECOND TO THIS GUY CHAPMAN WHO WROTE ABOUT ENERGY EXTENED AND WAS IT A SLOW QTR OR FAST.AND THEN PANDY IN THE EYE AND HIS OWN SHEET HELPED BRING IT TO US SLOW DOWN AND PACE YOURSELF.AND YOU HAVE TO SPOT BET MOE

[melman]

Welcome to the harness section Rowboat. But please, please no more all caps posts. WAY to tough on the eyes.

[offtrack]

Pandy-
Congrats on the terrific night of selections at the Meadowlands this Saturday night.
Some real nice prices listed on the USTA selections page.

[pandy]

Thank you. I had a tough beat though last night. The Pick 4 started with my Best Bet, which won and paid $12.60, then my next two top picks won at $5.40 and $62.80. I had used two horses in the last leg, one of which was Hanks Kid who was 6-1, he spurted clear along the inside and looked home free but the favorite Laguna Beach, who had lost the lead while drifting out, came back on again and beat him by a nose on the wire.

Can't complain I guess, a winning night, the Pick 4's are tough.

[LottaKash]

Thank you. I had a tough beat though last night. The Pick 4 started with my Best Bet, which won and paid $12.60, then my next two top picks won at $5.40 and $62.80. ................

Can't complain I guess, a winning night, the Pick 4's are tough.

Next time Bob....Would've been nice tho....:(

best,

[rowboat]

how can caps hurt your eyes.you dont read newspapers.my typing no matter what seems to offend people.just delete me

[PaceAdvantage]

how can caps hurt your eyes.you dont read newspapers.my typing no matter what seems to offend people.just delete meL O L

[rowboat]

i ask yonkers bettors what is more important the PP OR THE BOARD.people kick around stats how maybe the added distance has helped.not so.i have kept the charts for a nymber of days and the 5 -8 i they wonthey were either the 1-2 favorite or wound up wiring the field or the pocket horse is there

[camfella]

The board talks at Yankers, dont ignore the early money, the hidden talking is in the exacta pools, good luck there these days,short priced horses, Brennan and super trainers,you had better have the patience of Job...now if you can find 2-3 overlays per week and only play those?you may have a shot, if you need action ...go to the casino