Z Dager and the Derby

[Blenheim]

I think we might have a live one here.

Can't know for certain, can never be for certain . . . but I couldn't help but to take a brief look: Z Dager: DP 0-3-10-2-1 DI 1.00 CD -0.06. No Brilliant points. I took a look at the data set and had to go back to 1966 and Kuai King, last Derby winner with zero B points in the DP. Before him, it was Jet Pilot, 1947; Hoop Jr., 1945; Count Fleet, 1943 and Whirlaway, 1941. Didn't Count fleet and Whirlaway win the Triple Crown?! I took another quick look and saw the last Derby winner with a negative CD was Decidedly back in 1962. Decidedly was the last Derby winner to have both a negative CD and a DI below 1.00.

Did Gilcrest Farm breed a throwback?

Did someone (finally) get away from brilliance and breed for stamina? Or was it just an accident? From what I understand them hoss' of yester yore were much stouter than the breed we have today. Is this Z Dager a stout and tough one that, as they say over on the other side of the pond, he can run on. Can he withstand the rigors of the Derby trail, this bein' only January! :lol:

No doubt, I'm excited about this guy and to just think that was the first race on the long and winding road. Is he different? Am I reading the numbers wrong or am I just dreamin'?

After watching the replay of the Lecomte, it was clear to me had he a clear run for the wire he wins going away; he won his last on in the slop and he possesses Dominant Classicity; is there more? As I was driving home from the track all I could think about was how to get to Vegas and put down $50 bucks on Z Dager to win the Kentucky Derby. I wonder what odds they'll give me.

[holmmd]

not seeing it. this race left me looking elsewhere for legit Derby contenders. look at the splits...almost identical to the MSW 30-1 bomber and a full second (and some change) slower than the girls in the SlvrBullet.

[RXB]

After watching the replay of the Lecomte, it was clear to me had he a clear run for the wire he wins going away; he won his last on in the slop and he possesses Dominant Classicity; is there more?

Yes, there's more: a display of talent. Which none of the horses showed in the Lecomte.

Consider: the winning time is a few hundredths slower than the MSW three races earlier.

Also consider: the winning time is only .18 faster than the La. Hcp two races earlier-- and the La Hcp distance is 40 yards longer.

Expect a Beyer figure right around 80. Very weak.

[turninforhome10]

You mentioned Hoop JR in the above Derby winners and Z Dager comes from a line of mares developed by Hooper himself. The Professional influence comes from Ribot and if you look at the 5 gen pedigree and compare Mizzens Masts Dam Kinema and Wavering Monarch they are bred very similar being inverses of each other and both carrying Tom Fool and Ribot. http://www.pedigreequery.com/z+dager
Might have struck something. The female line leaves a lot to be desired as far as producing classic horses though.

[Pell Mell]

not seeing it. this race left me looking elsewhere for legit Derby contenders. look at the splits...almost identical to the MSW 30-1 bomber and a full second (and some change) slower than the girls in the SlvrBullet.

Like a lot of races last year with nothing close to quality speed in it. What happens when these guys tangle with speed that doesn't back up?

[Tom]

I am not getting excited about anything this early.

[redshift1]

Derby winner (2012) has probably not started this year.

[holmmd]

Like a lot of races last year with nothing close to quality speed in it. What happens when these guys tangle with speed that doesn't back up?

they will lose.

[Tom]

Derby winner (2012) has probably not started this year.

And will only make 3-4 starts all year once he does.

[Blenheim]

I love the numbers, always have always will. But the numbers don’t tell us everything.

How he broke from the gate. How he responded to the early dash to the turn. How he handled the rail and pressures from all around. If he had relaxed strides dueling down the backstretch. How he handled horses backing up in front of him. If he demonstrated the stamina needed for the route. How he responded when boxed in. How he showed readiness and willingness to go around traffic and how he demonstrated courage and endurance by rallying in deep stretch. I think this horse might have some talent.

Had he a clear run to the wire would his numbers be higher? What about racetrack maintenance between race nine and eleven? How many revolutions of the watering tanker? How many times did the tractor harrow, how deep? How many times did they scrape, did they change the weights? Did the racetrack maintenance favor Mr. Jones?

His Dosage makes ZD particularly interesting and I figure he is likely to improve. I’ll be keepin' a close eye on this one, monitoring his works. Vegas Futures: 250/1. Thinkin’ those numbers might be a little high. Wonder what Mr. Hooper would think.


:2: :5: :1: / :1:

[gm10]

This wasn't a bad race at all in my opinion.

[Dahoss9698]

This wasn't a bad race at all in my opinion.

There's a surprise.

[Blenheim]

Tough, interesting and exciting scheduling form here on in.

Just over 100 days before the big dance, needing the graded stakes earnings and needing a solid nine furlong race - it'll be interesting to see how they manage him. I'm no trainer but I figure he stays in the Big Easy.

Lecomte at 8.32fl
Risen Star at 8.5fl, 32 days
Louisiana Derby at 9fl, 35 days
Kentucky Derbyat 10f, 34 days

Gotta think it is settin' up sweet and he can get in it should he have the right stuff. Should he be of the stouter kind, I think he can do it. Should he be of the fragile nature, probably not. Time flies when your havin' fun and we shall know soon enough.

Odds came down a bit from 250/1 to 125/1.

:1: :2: :5: / :1:

Nothin' like the Derby Trail.