Data help: What is the raw percentage of faves tanking in each of these instances?

[Milkshaker]

Can any data cruncher quantify this for me using a vast sample of races? Which event occurs with more frequency?

What are the percentages of...

1) Favorites finishing out of the superfecta.

2) Favorites not winning any legs of a pick four (I will also accept an answer that essentially says "favorites losing four consecutive races on a card.")

Thanks!

[misscashalot]

Can any data cruncher quantify this for me using a vast sample of races? Which event occurs with more frequency?

What are the percentages of...

1) Favorites finishing out of the superfecta.

2) Favorites not winning any legs of a pick four (I will also accept an answer that essentially says "favorites losing four consecutive races on a card.")

Thanks!

So far from Jan 1
No winning fav at NYRA

Jan 2nd 6th-9th
Jan 11th 6th-9th
Jan 15th 6th-9th
Jan 16th 3rd-6th
Jan 19th 6th-9th

[so.cal.fan]

This is the downside to the exotics. I don't think it happens often, but it can and does enough to keep me in the win pool and off the favorite.

[mishka]

What are the percentages of...

1) Favorites finishing out of the superfecta.
...
Thanks!
I think there is another angle in which to approach your question without using a database. But first a caveat: my next book to read will be on probability and statistics--which I need mucho to learn about. So with that in mind, let me show my current level of ignorance about the subject and comment on your question--so to any math guys, please correct.

So Del Mar keeps stats on how favorites are doing for the current meet. For last year, they list the following:

"In-the-Money favorites -- 226 out of 324 -- 69.75%"

Let's round up and say 70% of the time, a favorite will be 1 or 2 or 3. Let'st take this as representative of all favorites.

So the question from another angle without a database, what are the odds/probability of a favorite hitting the 4th position knowing what we know?

For a 10-horse field say, that would mean the favorite could be in any position from 4-10: seven positions. I am assuming that after the third position, a favorite has no special weight to put it in the upper part of the range.

So the odds of the favorite being in any 4-10 position is 1/7 or 14%. But the favorite has a 30% of hitting any of those slots overall. So I think the math would be (.14)(.30): which is 4.2%. (Actually, for a 10-horse field, would I take the odds to be (1/10)*(.30)??? :confused: )

If my math reasoning is correct, one answer to your question then is: in a superfecta, the favorite has a 4% chance of being in the 4th position (in a field of 10).

[sjk]

I get the favorite in the top 4 80.8% of the time and out of the top 4 19.2% of the time.

The favorite fails to win 63.6% and since the 4 consecutive races are independent events the favorite fails to win 4 in a row (63.6)^4 or 16.3% of the time.

[Milkshaker]

Thank you, sjk--I appreciate your taking the time to crunch those numbers for me. I needed a base rate to go off of when attacking how I'm going to beat favorites, and now I have one.

As for Mishka, I'd suggest "Thinking Fast And Slow" as a good read. Not quite on the subject you asked about, but if you apply it to handicapping, it blows your mind about how the brain "creates stories" and utilizes simplified hieruistics it can peg decisions on (which turns out to be easier--and sometimes more misleading--than applying actual thought processes to problems).