Handicapping and Prejudice

[maddog42]

Nick Mordin an English author from his book Winning Without Thinking:

"If you had bet every French runner in Britain over the Past 20 years, you would have made a small profit. If you had bet every horse ridden by a female jockey,you would have lost far less than than if you had bet those ridden by males.
Why? Because the average Punter is a middle-aged, sexist, xenophobic male who can't bring himself to bet on a woman or a foreigner."

I am quoting Mordin, not so much to make a political statement, as I believe that most of us fall into losing habits (whatever prejudice it may be) and we need our belief systems shaken up a little bit from time to time. Every word from the Mordin book seems to apply in this country. It is probably not because you are a sexist or a xenophobe that you are losing, but because you slavishly follow Beyer Speed Figures or an outdated Class System that no longer applies, or Pace figures that everyone else are using or (fill in the blank).
Mordin makes a compelling case for originality and betting against conventional wisdom.

[Overlay]

I go where statistics, percentages, and odds lead me, and leave subjectivity or pre-conceived notions at the door.

[LottaKash]

Watching a hot Chick on a hot French horse while sipping suds in an English pub....:cool:... Life is good..


best,

[maddog42]

I go where statistics, percentages, and odds lead me, and leave subjectivity or pre-conceived notions at the door.

You are a better man than me then.

[Milkshaker]

I go where statistics, percentages, and odds lead me, and leave subjectivity or pre-conceived notions at the door.

I am currently reading "Thinking Fast And Slow" and trying to apply what I am learning to my handicapping process.

One of the chief concepts of the book is how we like to think we are making rational, well-thought-out decisions based on data. But in reality, many of our most critical choices are automatic and driven by prejudice and heuristic shortcuts.

Fascinating stuff when you try to think of the ideas the book presents from a pari-mutuel perspective.

[gm10]

Nick Mordin an English author from his book Winning Without Thinking:

"If you had bet every French runner in Britain over the Past 20 years, you would have made a small profit. If you had bet every horse ridden by a female jockey,you would have lost far less than than if you had bet those ridden by males.
Why? Because the average Punter is a middle-aged, sexist, xenophobic male who can't bring himself to bet on a woman or a foreigner."

I am quoting Mordin, not so much to make a political statement, as I believe that most of us fall into losing habits (whatever prejudice it may be) and we need our belief systems shaken up a little bit from time to time. Every word from the Mordin book seems to apply in this country. It is probably not because you are a sexist or a xenophobe that you are losing, but because you slavishly follow Beyer Speed Figures or an outdated Class System that no longer applies, or Pace figures that everyone else are using or (fill in the blank).
Mordin makes a compelling case for originality and betting against conventional wisdom.

Great book ... I remember making a list of all the angles he had researched. Definitely worth reading if you are willing to re-think your game.

[dnlgfnk]

I go where statistics, percentages, and odds lead me, and leave subjectivity or pre-conceived notions at the door.

That is a pre-concieved notion.

[cosmicway]

Some girls are good jockeys.
Some others pretend and just don't care.

[maddog42]

Some girls are good jockeys.
Some others pretend and just don't care.

I totally agree, but this also applies to male jockeys. Some of the ladies might resent being called girls.

[garyscpa]

I totally agree, but this also applies to male jockeys. Some of the ladies might resent being called girls.

I resent being called an a-hole. :D

[maddog42]

I resent being called an a-hole. :D

Who called you an a-hole?

[cosmicway]

I totally agree, but this also applies to male jockeys. Some of the ladies might resent being called girls.

Why should a girl resent being called a girl ?
Anyway there are some good ones in the UK like Hayley Turner.
I resent the provenly useless jockeys, male or female being given rides. Also apprentices riding hands and heels. Serves as an excuse to run blinders.

[maddog42]

Why should a girl resent being called a girl ?
Anyway there are some good ones in the UK like Hayley Turner.
I resent the provenly useless jockeys, male or female being given rides. Also apprentices riding hands and heels. Serves as an excuse to run blinders.

For the same reason that a 50 year old male jockey would not like to be called
"boy". Some of these women are not 16 but 35 or older. Most would not mind being called girl, but some would. I know from personal experience.

[iceknight]

For the same reason that a 50 year old male jockey would not like to be called
"boy". Some of these women are not 16 but 35 or older. Most would not mind being called girl, but some would. I know from personal experience.

This sounds like it will be fun point to argue on.. (just for fun)..

Pshaw...have you heard the phrase "boys will be boys"..that's used for older guys too.. girls is by the way not as much a put down as "boys" is.. and you know why that is: it's because men have big egos and worry about being called a boy.. not so much with girls.. who still do "girls night out" at the age of 60 or 80..

and here is a bonuslink (http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/16/opinion/felkel-south-carolina/index.html?hpt=hp_t1)

[cosmicway]

Boy sounds like a putdown remark, but girl normally does n't.
Depends on local language habits though, I imagine.

[castaway01]

Okay, I'll tackle this topic realistically and head on. Why not?

In America, I'd say the largest percentage of jockeys, male or female, are of Hispanic origin. I haven't noticed an ability difference between one race and another in riding, so I would find it hard to believe that in American racing betting, say, all the white jockeys would lead you to profit---unless they were the only riders getting the good horses, and I don't believe that.

Similarly, any prejudices against female riders (leading to a better price) are probably balanced out by OVERALL strength differences where the women aren't as strong in the stretch as men (note I said OVERALL) AS WELL AS similar biases where male trainers might not want a "weaker" female rider on their well-meant horse and give male riders better mounts.

So, in essence, any ability differences, real or imagined, likely balance out. I can't argue that if you bet all French riders in England or all Pakistani riders in India or some such situation that you couldn't do a bit better than average due to long-standing nationalistic rivalries between the countries. However, overall, in this country it all averages out to nothing.

I have now solved racial issues. Next topic. :bang:

[maddog42]

Okay, I'll tackle this topic realistically and head on. Why not?

In America, I'd say the largest percentage of jockeys, male or female, are of Hispanic origin. I haven't noticed an ability difference between one race and another in riding, so I would find it hard to believe that in American racing betting, say, all the white jockeys would lead you to profit---unless they were the only riders getting the good horses, and I don't believe that.

Similarly, any prejudices against female riders (leading to a better price) are probably balanced out by OVERALL strength differences where the women aren't as strong in the stretch as men (note I said OVERALL) AS WELL AS similar biases where male trainers might not want a "weaker" female rider on their well-meant horse and give male riders better mounts.

So, in essence, any ability differences, real or imagined, likely balance out. I can't argue that if you bet all French riders in England or all Pakistani riders in India or some such situation that you couldn't do a bit better than average due to long-standing nationalistic rivalries between the countries. However, overall, in this country it all averages out to nothing.

I have now solved racial issues. Next topic. :bang:


I never mentioned race nor did Mordin. Prejudice comes in many forms. I will give you an example, though not a very scientific one. I believe the sexism toward Women Jockeys has for the most part diminished, but not disappeared. It has helped that there are a few women Jockeys with over 1000 wins. I have been known in the past(not much anymore) to bet ONLY women jockeys. Lets jump in the Time Machine and travel to Remington Park
circa February 1993. Women Jockeys were making inroads at Remington thanks to a few enlightened trainers and Management. Yes I dared call the management enlightened.

Jan 29th race2 $36.40 winner Nora Cochran
Jan 31 race 4 $99.60 winner Donna Barton
Feb 6 race 7 $23.60 winner Donna Barton
Feb 7 race 7 $39.20 winner Donna Barton
Feb 7 race 10 $74.20 winner Sally Quast
Feb 11 race6 $58.20 winner Sally Quast
Feb 15 race $25.00 winner Sally Quast
Feb 19 race7 $51.40 place Sally Quest
Feb 19 race10 $69.60 winner Cynthia Loetscher
This occurred over 12 racing days and is not representative of the entire year at RP. I have seen similar occurences at other tracks involving women
jockeys, and believe me you can probably make a statistical argument that
they are better as a group than their male counterparts. I don't really believe that the best Jockeys are women, but they are definitely very good and some very smart handicappers have made a lot of money on them. They absolutely have been underbet over the last 20 years, but now people are catching on.
Has anyone else out there noticed some of these fantastic paying hot streaks
that some female jockeys go on?

[VastinMT]

I never mentioned race nor did Mordin. Prejudice comes in many forms. I will give you an example, though not a very scientific one. I believe the sexism toward Women Jockeys has for the most part diminished, but not disappeared. It has helped that there are a few women Jockeys with over 1000 wins. I have been known in the past(not much anymore) to bet ONLY women jockeys. Lets jump in the Time Machine and travel to Remington Park
circa February 1993. Women Jockeys were making inroads at Remington thanks to a few enlightened trainers and Management. Yes I dared call the management enlightened.

Jan 29th race2 $36.40 winner Nora Cochran
Jan 31 race 4 $99.60 winner Donna Barton
Feb 6 race 7 $23.60 winner Donna Barton
Feb 7 race 7 $39.20 winner Donna Barton
Feb 7 race 10 $74.20 winner Sally Quast
Feb 11 race6 $58.20 winner Sally Quast
Feb 15 race $25.00 winner Sally Quast
Feb 19 race7 $51.40 place Sally Quest
Feb 19 race10 $69.60 winner Cynthia Loetscher
This occurred over 12 racing days and is not representative of the entire year at RP. I have seen similar occurences at other tracks involving women
jockeys, and believe me you can probably make a statistical argument that
they are better as a group than their male counterparts. I don't really believe that the best Jockeys are women, but they are definitely very good and some very smart handicappers have made a lot of money on them. They absolutely have been underbet over the last 20 years, but now people are catching on.
Has anyone else out there noticed some of these fantastic paying hot streaks
that some female jockeys go on?

Someone told me that if you had bet on Chantal Sutherland in the weeks after her "Battle of the Exes" with Mike Smith was announced, you would have had a positive ROI, whereas flat bets on Mike would have cost you money.

If true, this might be a good example of a kind of prejudice against female riders (or maybe just Sutherland) that could show up in the pools and present a favorable play.

[ranchwest]

This sounds like it will be fun point to argue on.. (just for fun)..

Pshaw...have you heard the phrase "boys will be boys"..that's used for older guys too.. girls is by the way not as much a put down as "boys" is.. and you know why that is: it's because men have big egos and worry about being called a boy.. not so much with girls.. who still do "girls night out" at the age of 60 or 80..

and here is a bonuslink (http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/16/opinion/felkel-south-carolina/index.html?hpt=hp_t1)

Most people want to be referred to by their own preference and that is generally considered the polite and respectful course.

[Robert Fischer]

I go where statistics, percentages, and odds lead me, and leave subjectivity or pre-conceived notions at the door.

no fair! , the rest of us are trapped in our ignorance!!!


Seriously these "judgements" come in many flavors and have penetrated many factors (as i'm sure Overlay is aware of)

[Robert Fischer]

i pre judge female jockeys to an extent...

if I have no stats and no word of mouth and she has a lousy mount, I probably PRE-JUDGE that she's a non contender.........

[cosmicway]

When did the English say bad things about the French ?
It's the same compania di mangiare.

[cosmicway]

i pre judge female jockeys to an extent...

if I have no stats and no word of mouth and she has a lousy mount, I probably PRE-JUDGE that she's a non contender.........

It's a good tip actually.
Always back females when they are good.

[Pell Mell]

I can remember when the most sought after jock in the country was "No Boy". Use to be listed on 40-50 horses per day at many tracks... :D

[turninforhome10]

I can remember when the most sought after jock in the country was "No Boy". Use to be listed on 40-50 horses per day at many tracks... :D
I think "NO Boy" is retired from riding and breaking horses in Ocala. Finally got tired of getting cheated out of jock mounts. :lol:
I like female riders on horses that need an easy hand and have natural speed. It seems that female riders will be more likely to use the brain more than the back to help the horse finish.

[cosmicway]

Little while ago. Melle Paror in Pau-France. Nice winner 6.5 to 1.

[pondman]

Some girls are good jockeys.
Some others pretend and just don't care.
There are a couple women in U.S. racing who have the upper body strength to hold a horse in a route. Most are just staying aboard. On the high end, I don't see any stars. I've heard too many S. California trainers complaining that women escalate the rise in insurance premiums. There might be something to the statistical arguement, but it's probably out in the sticks, where nobody is interested.

[pandy]

Handicapper's prejudicial thinking hurts a lot of players, it's true. Years ago I made a steady profit betting the lowest percentage posts, 7 and 8, on half mile harness tracks because there were so many overlays. Most handicappers hardly looked at the outside horses because of prejudice.

The same holds true not only with female jockeys but with jockeys and trainers that are not superstars. You see this a lot when a jockey or harness driver gets injured and comes back, his win percentage drops because he lost business and people actually think that he lost his skill. You can get great overlays on these guys.

[jk3521]

Handicapper's prejudicial thinking hurts a lot of players, it's true. Years ago I made a steady profit betting the lowest percentage posts, 7 and 8, on half mile harness tracks because there were so many overlays. Most handicappers hardly looked at the outside horses because of prejudice.

The same holds true not only with female jockeys but with jockeys and trainers that are not superstars. You see this a lot when a jockey or harness driver gets injured and comes back, his win percentage drops because he lost business and people actually think that he lost his skill. You can get great overlays on these guys.

H. Allen Jerkins used to give mounts to Robyn Smith in the old days, and later Leah Gyarmati quite often, never bothered him. Also as far as injured jockeys returning after injury, this was one of the angles I would look for. Also ex-jockeys becoming trainers I look for ala Rudy Rodriguez, Leah, Dennis Lalman,etc.

[pandy]

Caught some monster longshots with Karen Rogers, she had that magic touch with longshot closers.

[breeze]

There are a couple women in U.S. racing who have the upper body strength to hold a horse in a route.

If a rider is holding a horse back in a route race using strength, they are a poor rider. A good rider will "talk" a horse into slowing down and conserving their energy to finish. They talk them down with quiet hands, soft voice tones and seat position. Horses vary as to what works well, but fighting a horse never works.

[Grits]

This sounds like it will be fun point to argue on.. (just for fun)..

Pshaw...have you heard the phrase "boys will be boys"..that's used for older guys too.. girls is by the way not as much a put down as "boys" is.. and you know why that is: it's because men have big egos and worry about being called a boy.. not so much with girls.. who still do "girls night out" at the age of 60 or 80..

and here is a bonuslink (http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/16/opinion/felkel-south-carolina/index.html?hpt=hp_t1)

Not all girls do "girls night out", regardless of age, which really has nothing to do with anything. Some of us, for whatever reason, have never found it interesting, or for that matter, a lot of fun.

[pandy]

Pondman, your opinion that there are only a "couple" of women riders who have the upper body strength is typical male egoist nonsense and prejudice and exactly what this thread is about.

You're confusing riding horses with playing middle-linebacker. There are many women riders in the sport who are quite strong enough to ride horses, that's why so many of them are doing well. Rosie Napravnik, Chantal Sutherland, R. Homeister, Emma Jayne Wilson, Forest Boyce, Inez Karlson, are a few that come to mind and there are others. And of course there have been many that have retired that were also able to handle horses extremely well, including the great Julie Krone.

[maddog42]

If a rider is holding a horse back in a route race using strength, they are a poor rider. A good rider will "talk" a horse into slowing down and conserving their energy to finish. They talk them down with quiet hands, soft voice tones and seat position. Horses vary as to what works well, but fighting a horse never works.

I totally agree. The real "strength" of women riders is their rapport with the animal. For some reason I think that some horses just don't like male jockeys.
Some of the most dramatic form reversals have come with women jockeys. I am talking BIG payoffs here. I haven't hit one in a while, but I used to like seeing a switch to a lesser woman jockey who had a fairly low percentage, but obviously had a lot of ability. Most handicappers would see this as a strike against a horse but, sometimes the horse and jockey just don't click. Some women just don't get quality horses to ride.

[pandy]

maddog I agree with you. When Karen Rogers or Julie Krone woke up horses first time they got on, it was usually because they got the horse to relax and made one run. Most riders are hustling from the get go because they know that most races are won by horses close to the pace, but a lot of horses, especially the common raceway stock, get burned out trying to keep up with all that hustling.

But a great off the pace rider will win regardless of the bias. When Krone came out of retirement in So. Cal. the tracks were dirt and speed favoring. She had always ridden on the more "sustained" style tracks in the Northeast. But she still brought in tons of off the pace winners, even in sprints, making one late run and waiting as long as she could to ask the horse.

Karen Rogers was dynamite on longshots with cheap claimers the first time she got on them, and it was always the same, relax, sit chilly, wait, wait, wait, explode late for the 25-1 shocker. A lot of horses only have one run.