OVERLAYS

[teddy]

How ofter do you pick 3 contenders that u think will be closely matched and one is way out of line? How often does he seem to run well if not win at 10-1 or more. Often for me, or am I just noticing it after the fact. Hit a 50=1 to place at aqu today that seemed to make sense. Speed figs were close.

[Overlay]

Since I know how my fair odds are assigned/developed for each horse, I can usually tell why a particular horse that I had at lower odds is being overlooked (often because the public has become oversold on another horse with a big figure, a hot jockey, or some other positive indicator, and has put it at lower odds than it should be). As long as I can tell why a horse is at odds that are higher than my fair odds, it doesn't affect my original judgment.

[dakotagypsy]

I have a watch list of horses with high odds (8-1 or bigger) i keep and anytime i see them entered in a race at the right distance i always play them against the favs. Example. Romanova at tampa yesterday, opened at 12-1 went off at 40-1, gets 2nd and paid 22.00 with a big exacta.That horse got its original jock back at the right distance and home track, public completely over looked it and bet the favs heavily.. so my answer is, dont let odds fool you, the public in most cases have no clue so they just bet the top fav horses..

[teddy]

It would be interesting to analyze every 20=1 that hit the board to see how far off par he was and was there a supertrainer or other reason why he was twice his expected odds.

[pondman]

It would be interesting to analyze every 20=1 that hit the board to see how far off par he was and was there a supertrainer or other reason why he was twice his expected odds.

It should be part of the thought process-- anticipating the line. I personally don't get excited about a horse until I see a poor performance or a young horse with potential, and then a dramatic change, as if the connections are serious about sending the horse. To do this, you had better be prepared to go against the grain and be consider a wack job by the conventional rating people.

Rarely will the combination of super jockey, super trainer, and super horse provide anything playable-- at least not for me.

[teddy]

My copy of this is on its way and I have no idea what its about but the obvious that its value search based. I never buy anything but my data and my library is 2 books total. Both not purchased by me. I have had huge success recently betting when the odds are out of lline. Luck ? Maybe but I feel like im getting $6 show prices when I think they should be $4 show prices. Had a race today where horse 1 speed rating was 62 horse 2 was rated 62 and horse 3 was rated 60. The rest of the field was 50 or less... Off odds horse 1 2-1 horse 2 5-2 and horse 3 was 6 -1 . The way I see that is that horse 3 was a great bet as the public assumes there is no way the horse 3 can beat them. And the public assumes horse 1 and 2 were going to repeat those efforts. As in all illustrations, horse 3 won. LOL

[Robert Fischer]

How ofter do you pick 3 contenders that u think will be closely matched and one is way out of line? How often does he seem to run well if not win at 10-1 or more. Often for me, or am I just noticing it after the fact. Hit a 50=1 to place at aqu today that seemed to make sense. Speed figs were close.

Sorry, do not understand the question.

[teddy]

Sorry, do not understand the question.
Simply, imagine handicapping and liking 3 horses and one is way out of line in your opinion. double or triple your personal odds expectation. When that happens to me it seems like they run very well versus what the public line would expect.

[tlinetrader]

My only regret is that this doesn't happen often enough. Anytime I can narrow a field to three based on speed and form and one of those three is 8-1 or better, I bet him place and show.

[kid sapphire]

My only regret is that this doesn't happen often enough. Anytime I can narrow a field to three based on speed and form and one of those three is 8-1 or better, I bet him place and show.

So if the other horses are 8/5 and 5/2 you play your horse to place and show.. I have to try this sounds amazing. Are you selling a software package/CD to teach this skill? If so PM me the website, if you arent kicking back to the site owners.

[teddy]

Tons of stuff for $60... Read most of one of the 5 or so systems tonight. Initially it seems to be a good read and mimicking a spot play based on his system did very well on 150 races.. Not an exact replication by any means, but a really fun time. His paper and pencil method sure seems to make sense but it would take me a long time to master it. Once mastered I think it probably would make you a winner based on how incredibly detailed your handicapping will be and how well it would rate the chances of each horse.

[teddy]

After applying some of his rules to my handicapping I have seen a huge increase. So basic but yet so overlooked. Even if you dont do the long version of these systems, it gives you a real heads up on what you really need to be watching for. Short term good run of luck? Maybe but so far so good.

[shouldacoulda]

I play sporadically and have been playing on and off over 34 years. Anyone remember the Albert Illich system? The only rules I have are
1)Don't play with bill money
2)Don't play every race
3)Only make a wager when there is value.
4)I will not place a wager without seeing the post parade.

I have literally watched and handicapped thousands of races and grew up with a horse player dad. I was originally a speed handicapper. Then I started looking at pace. After reading The Handicappers Condition Book by James Quinn, Beyer on Speed by Andy Beyer, and Calibration Handicapping by Jim Lehane I was still missing something so I bought the DVD Body Language of a Racehorse by Jockey Chris McCarron and author Bonnie Ledbetter. That completed the puzzle. The only thing after that was to break the "gotta play every race syndrome". I still struggle with that but it's getting better. I have not touched a pen to paper for a couple of years. I don't use a computer program either. Many times I will place my bet within a minute of post. Sometimes I get shut out too. Oh well.
I am not going to lie, last year was a losing year for me but after not playing for months I threw $50.00 in my account and decided to stick with straight $2.00 win bets. If you can't do it with $2.00, you won't do it with bigger bets. This is the result from my last deposit in September 2011. I know I am still playing races I shouldn't. This win % should be higher. According to the stats it's a 17.74 win % with an ROI of +0.82.