Saints

[Valuist]

Average points per game:

at home 41.5 (including playoff game)
on road 27.3

Just heard the linemaker at Caeser's on a podcast. He says the square money is virtually 100% on the Saints this weekend. But the pros will be betting the Niners. That said, sometimes the squares get it right.

Candlestick is one of the slower playing surfaces in the league. San Fran clearly is the better defense. Think the Niners win this one straight up.

[JBmadera]

Niners! It's 1981 all over again.....I hope!

[cj's dad]

N.O. has a pretty average road record:

Losses at

Green Bay- no shame here
Tampa Bay - Ugh !
St. Louis - double ugh !!

Barely edged out:

Atlanta & Carolina - both by 3 points !!

I'm going Niners money line

[Marshall Bennett]

Believe Saints will take their machine on the road and do well in playoffs. Line should be closer to even imo, but will take Saints none the less.

[PhantomOnTour]

N.O. has a pretty average road record:

Losses at

Green Bay- no shame here
Tampa Bay - Ugh !
St. Louis - double ugh !!

Barely edged out:

Atlanta & Carolina - both by 3 points !!

I'm going Niners money line
Never hold a close win vs a seemingly inferior division opponent against any team. Despite the gap in talent & coaching, division games tend to be close.
Now, about that loss vs the Rams...

[ponyplayerdotca]

I have to believe that playoff experience matters in this game.

The Saints have it (as well as a recent Super Bowl title) and the 49ers don't.

Sean Payton vs Jim Harbaugh
Drew Brees vs Alex Smith

These are the two key matchups in this game. The 49ers have to prove that the step up to playoff football isn't beyond their capabilities from this past regular season. They haven't played in two weeks, and haven't played a meaningful game since destroying Pittsburgh that Monday night. Now, in retrospect though, that doesn't look as big a win as Pittsburgh wasn't as good as many believed.

It really will depend on the whether Harbaugh and Smith can overcome their jitters (especially at home where the fans can swing the mood if things don't go well early). If you think Payton and Brees have the edge in that department, bet the Saints.

If you truly believe in Harbaugh, Smith, and whatever else the 49ers have had cookin' this year, take the points and the home dog.

My thoughts are that the Saints are on a mission to revenge that opening night loss in Green Bay from Week 1, and they won't let a playoff newbie stop them on the way. But I HAVE been wrong before... LOL.

[Valuist]

I have to believe that playoff experience matters in this game.

The Saints have it (as well as a recent Super Bowl title) and the 49ers don't.

Sean Payton vs Jim Harbaugh
Drew Brees vs Alex Smith

These are the two key matchups in this game. The 49ers have to prove that the step up to playoff football isn't beyond their capabilities from this past regular season. They haven't played in two weeks, and haven't played a meaningful game since destroying Pittsburgh that Monday night. Now, in retrospect though, that doesn't look as big a win as Pittsburgh wasn't as good as many believed.

It really will depend on the whether Harbaugh and Smith can overcome their jitters (especially at home where the fans can swing the mood if things don't go well early). If you think Payton and Brees have the edge in that department, bet the Saints.

If you truly believe in Harbaugh, Smith, and whatever else the 49ers have had cookin' this year, take the points and the home dog.

My thoughts are that the Saints are on a mission to revenge that opening night loss in Green Bay from Week 1, and they won't let a playoff newbie stop them on the way. But I HAVE been wrong before... LOL.


How are Brees and Smith matched up? They aren't.

The REAL matchup, IMO, is the Saints offense vs the 49er defense.

[slew101]

Think the Saints will do enough to win this game, but I wouldn't lay 3.5 points. I see this as a 27-24 type of game, maybe NO up 10 late and SF gets a back-door cover.

I'm not a believer in Alex Smith. He has to win a playoff game first. First playoff start, he's likely to struggle. But the NO defense can make many QBs look good.

I'd expect the Saints to blitz a ton like always. Smith will need to hit his chances down the field, but I don't think deep throws are his strength. He misses a lot of open receivers on his deep throws.

[toetoe]

Yielding turf, maybe ? :jump: [<<<< Rain dance.]

[thaskalos]

My money will go on N.O., with confidence.

On this one, the "pros" will be licking their wounds...and the "squares" will be dancing in the streets.

[ponyplayerdotca]

How are Brees and Smith matched up? They aren't.

The REAL matchup, IMO, is the Saints offense vs the 49er defense.

I didn't mean literally Valuist. You discount the importance of a game's QB matchup? I know they don't face each other on the field.

Brees is proven in the league and the playoffs over some years now. Smith is making his first ever playoff start. I believe those factors could be the difference at that position in this game. Hence why I listed Brees vs. Smith.

Smith has got to be perfect today, and Brees has to struggle for this game to be close.

As for all this blather on the 49ers defence, they aren't the football god's gift to the sport. They had a 3rd place schedule and got fat against non-playoff teams. They are a solid unit, but also are facing their toughest challenge of the season today.

The only reason the 49ers have a chance today is the venue. They are at home on grass and the Saints are vulnerable away from the Superdome. If this matchup was in Louisiana, the spread would be much higher.

The Saints are 64% getting TDs when they venture into the red zone (whereas SF is a mere 40%) this season. The numbers says take the Saints and lay the points. Enjoy the game.

[Valuist]

I didn't mean literally Valuist. You discount the importance of a game's QB matchup? I know they don't face each other on the field.

Brees is proven in the league and the playoffs over some years now. Smith is making his first ever playoff start. I believe those factors could be the difference at that position in this game. Hence why I listed Brees vs. Smith.

Smith has got to be perfect today, and Brees has to struggle for this game to be close.

As for all this blather on the 49ers defence, they aren't the football god's gift to the sport. They had a 3rd place schedule and got fat against non-playoff teams. They are a solid unit, but also are facing their toughest challenge of the season today.

The only reason the 49ers have a chance today is the venue. They are at home on grass and the Saints are vulnerable away from the Superdome. If this matchup was in Louisiana, the spread would be much higher.

The Saints are 64% getting TDs when they venture into the red zone (whereas SF is a mere 40%) this season. The numbers says take the Saints and lay the points. Enjoy the game.

The QB is the most heavily weighted factor in any game. There's no value in trying to decipher a QB edge, or how big an edge. Yes they are important but there is more to the game than just the QB. The defense ALWAYS matters. IMO, the Niners defense is decidedly stronger than the Saints.

I also believe the Saints have a definite home/road dichotemy. They clearly are a better team at home.

[Rookies]

Just ran through the critical factors on NFL.Com.

The 9ers had the D- STOP.

The Aints had the QB, WR, RB & HC edges.

I'm on the Aints to win the SB!:ThmbUp:

[ponyplayerdotca]

It's quite evident that Alex Smith is on his game, while Drew Brees is struggling early.

7-0 SF now and things look almost over already for NO.

Long way to go, but the signs are there for a 49ers romp.

[ponyplayerdotca]

Brees throws an easy pick, Niners up 14-0 now.

The momentum of this game was set when Pierre Thomas got clobbered at the two and fumbled.

On the replay though, I don't know how the DB wasn't flagged for helmet-to-helmet unnecessary roughness on a defenseless receiver.

It goes to prove the officials only see what they want to see.
]
SF is going to blow them out now as the Saints can't stop the SF offense.

[chickenhead]

Run it up before the half, ba-by!

[ponyplayerdotca]

Great catch by Graham for Saints' score after holding SF to a FG.

Saints D must wake up now to stem the tide.

Note that all three TDs have been scored with the blinding sunshine at the offense's back. Maybe both D's can't see into it too well?

[elysiantraveller]

14-17 now Niners still up.

Route on?

I think so...

[ponyplayerdotca]

Great Brees-to-Colston connection narrows it down to 3 points.

Saints waking up, need the D to hang tough. Smith is cooling off as the game has progressed.

We might have a game after all.

[ponyplayerdotca]

Nailbiting time for both teams and the Saints have to show why they are the better point-scoring team down the stretch here.

The 3.5 pt. spread is precarious for all concerned right now as well....

[chickenhead]

what a great f'in play call on that qb sweep, wow

[ponyplayerdotca]

That end sweep was a play they kept back for a situation just like this against that particular defensive set that NO showed.

Amazing balls to call it by the coach, and perfect execution.

2 minute warning. 29-24 SF - can they hold on and kill off the Saints?

[Rise Over Run]

crazy call.

[chickenhead]

damn these Saints are tough.

[chickenhead]

what a game!

[ponyplayerdotca]

Both teams getting TDs since my two-minute warning post. Wow.

If memory serves, Vernon Davis was the player that former interim coach Mike Singletary sent to the locker room mid-game, the incident that sparked his now infamous "I want winners!" post-game press conferences.

Well, Davis and the rest of the 49ers are deserving winners today.

Instant classic playoff game.

[SAL]

damn a nail biter to the end! Alex Smith came up big when it counted

[JBmadera]

Niners! It's 1981 all over again.....I hope!


NINERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[slew101]

Good call. Hope you cashed the ML too.

I had NO on the ML, and thought they caught a huge break on the Smith TD with 2:11 left. If he's tackled in bounds, SF could have milked the clock under 30 seconds and kicked the FG.

Then when NO scored, I never thought Smith could drive the field again for the win.

Think the Niners win this one straight up.

[PhantomOnTour]

Today was "Get God outta football day"....Saints and Tebow gone.

[cj]

damn a nail biter to the end! Alex Smith came up big when it counted

He did, but wow, I was praying he would go down at the 2 or 3 on his TD run, run the time down, and bring in the FG kicker. It worked out, but that was the play.

[PhantomOnTour]

Fantastic game!
This is the matchup i was most looking forward to this weekend.

Giants-Packers should be a good one too, but i can't imagine it topping this game.

[Rookies]

He did, but wow, I was praying he would go down at the 2 or 3 on his TD run, run the time down, and bring in the FG kicker. It worked out, but that was the play.

As a Saints backer, I was happy he did...well for a couple of minutes. Amazing, how so few EVER think of doing that.

Thought the same, of course, about Graham ...;)

[cj]

As a Saints backer, I was happy he did...well for a couple of minutes. Amazing, how so few EVER think of doing that.

Thought the same, of course, about Graham ...;)



I was yelling "fall down, fall down" but he didn't hear me. I would have said the same for Graham, but I missed the Saints TD, was heading to the Thunder game. I couldn't believe how fast they scored.

[PhantomOnTour]

Sproles caught 15 passes today!?
Gotta be a record....ofcourse Brees threw the ball 63 times.

[slew101]

Funny how we all noticed that, yet the announcers never mentioned it.

He did, but wow, I was praying he would go down at the 2 or 3 on his TD run, run the time down, and bring in the FG kicker. It worked out, but that was the play.

[cj's dad]

Fun game to watch - I had a small parley that had the Saints at - 3.5 and the over at 36.5.

It was the best money I lost as the game was great.

Fun-Fun - Fun

[NJ Stinks]

I guess it's fair to say the Saints scored too soon too. :(

[Casino]

Watching the replay it looked the niner db didnt want to tackle Graham on the last td.If he had tackled him it wouldve been another 40 seconds off the clock.

[Valuist]

The team with the better QB lost.

The team who won the turnover battle won.
The team who won the rushing battle won.
The team with the better defense won.

The pros won. The squares lost.

FWIW, have to think the NFL felt foolish for not making this game the prime time game. The Saints are a public team. Even the most casual fan who watches only the playoffs knows Brees is a great player. The line on the game was Saints -4, yet they choose to put the Pats/Broncos with a nearly two TD spread as the prime time game.

[Valuist]

Fun game to watch - I had a small parley that had the Saints at - 3.5 and the over at 36.5.

It was the best money I lost as the game was great.

Fun-Fun - Fun

I hope you didn't talk yourself ouf of the Niners moneyline play that you mentioned early in this thread.

[PhantomOnTour]

The team with the better QB lost.

The team who won the turnover battle won.
The team who won the rushing battle won.
The team with the better defense won.

The pros won. The squares lost.

FWIW, have to think the NFL felt foolish for not making this game the prime time game. The Saints are a public team. Even the most casual fan who watches only the playoffs knows Brees is a great player. The line on the game was Saints -4, yet they choose to put the Pats/Broncos with a nearly two TD spread as the prime time game.
Tebow mania is the reason in my opinion.
He's the biggest draw in the league.

[Valuist]

Tebow mania is the reason in my opinion.
He's the biggest draw in the league.

I think you are correct but this was a big gamble and the NFL lost.

[cj's dad]

I hope you didn't talk yourself ouf of the Niners moneyline play that you mentioned early in this thread.

:bang:Yes I did

[Valuist]

:bang:Yes I did

You are going to have to make up for it by taking your Ravens on the moneyline against the Patriots. I'm guessing we won't have to twist your arm hard on that one.

[cj's dad]

You are going to have to make up for it by taking your Ravens on the moneyline against the Patriots. I'm guessing we won't have to twist your arm hard on that one.

Ravens have played NE in the playoffs once-2010. Ravens 33- NE 10

Ray Rice @ 150+ yards Team Rush +200

Yes, a Money l;ine wager is in order.