Finding "claimed from" trainers to avoid

[Milkshaker]

Traditional PP's show a trainer's win percentage first time off the claim.

Anyone out there have access to stats that are essentially the reverse--ie how well or poorly a given trainer's horses fare the first start after being claimed away?

[bob60566]

Try

Mitchell, Mullins, Hollondorfer.

Then add any 30% winning trainer of your choice.

Mac:ThmbDown:

[tbwinner]

Formulator lets you do this, and I'm sure other outlets do too, but it gets tedious as you have to go in for every trainer you're looking at.

[mistergee]

Try

Mitchell, Mullins, Hollondorfer.

Then add any 30% winning trainer of your choice.

Mac:ThmbDown:
makes sense to me, every track has their miracle workers, if someone is dumb enough to claim from them just throw m out

[BIG49010]

Calabrese / ? Canani/ ? Ziadie most don't do to well off the claim from these guys, but trainers claim off them and down the tubes they go!!

Once in a blue moon, they do loose a good one, Marty Wolfson won a stake last year with a horse he claimed off them. Several years ago Calabrese lost a horse that ended up winning the Lonestar Derby.

Peter Walder is a tough guy to improve on also.

[Striker]

Calabrese / ? Canani/ ? Ziadie most don't do to well off the claim from these guys, but trainers claim off them and down the tubes they go!!

Once in a blue moon, they do loose a good one, Marty Wolfson won a stake last year with a horse he claimed off them. Several years ago Calabrese lost a horse that ended up winning the Lonestar Derby.

Peter Walder is a tough guy to improve on also.
3 of the success stories off Calabrese owned horses are-

1. Exchanging Kisses-- Claimed by Monique Cameron for Richard Glander in June 2010. Funny story here as Danny Miller had some Calabrese horses and then was quickly fired and Exchanging Kisses was 1 of those horses. I don't have any proof but I am taking a stab that Miller was scared to list himself on the claim after he was fired, as Monique Cameron has never trained for Richard Glander to my knowledge, and Glander has been one of Millers owners for a long time now. Horse goes up to Canterbury for Cameron in a starter stakes(finishes 5th I believe) and then shows up a month later with Miller listed as the trainer now and wins an Aoc nw3x. Horse has won 3 races since the claim, yes that is a success off Calabrese.

2. Embers Glowing--Claimed by Ingrid Mason on 6/5/2010. Horse has won 5 times since the claim.

3. Its Never to Late-- Claimed from Miller and Calabrese for 32k Jan of 2010. Horse has won 8 times and has been in recent overnight stakes races at Tampa and GP.

I'm sure there are some more good claims of those guys but the list of claims off them is real long, and the horses that have turned out well for others is not so much.

[Dahoss9698]

Took me a little while to find it, but there was a thread about this a few years ago.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=76351

I'm going to look and see if things have changed much, but I doubt it. For example, in the last 5 years, horses claimed from Juan Carlos Guerrero:

68 starters
4% winners
$ 0.20 ROI

When he claims a horse:

136 starters
43% winners
$ 2.62 ROI


Pretty incredible

[Dahoss9698]

Hollendorfer really doesn't belong in this discussion based on the stats.

When he claims a horse:

292 starters
26% winners
$ 1.64 ROI


When he gets claimed from:

337 starters
20% winners
$1.45 ROI


When Mike Mitchell claims a horse:

185 starters
32% winners
$ 2.73 ROI

When he gets claimed from

191 starters
13% winners
$ 1.19 ROI

[castaway01]

This angle makes sense (look at those Guerrero stats), but from the limited research I've done I found that a lot of time these horses don't get bet next start anyway. It would be nice to see the horse running for the new 2 percent barn and going off at 7-5, but often the horse is either too ambitiously placed or people notice the trainer change and the horse is 12-1. Actually, I guess it's that the horse got bet in the past because of the 35% trainer, but now they're not bettting 2 percent Jones. It might be a good idea to start with trying to beat the ML favorites claimed from supertrainers. Not sure how that would turn out but it would help focus on beating horses that will draw some money.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I don't have the numbers to give but horses claimed from Jamie Ness go down quick and when he claims them,usually within 2 starts they win at a higher level and jump in speed figures by 10-20 points.

[Dahoss9698]

I don't have the numbers to give but horses claimed from Jamie Ness go down quick and when he claims them,usually within 2 starts they win at a higher level and jump in speed figures by 10-20 points.

When Jaime Ness claims a horse:

449 starters
35% winners
$ 1.91 ROI

Jaime Ness 2nd off the claim

365 starters
32% winners
$ 1.82 ROI


When he gets claimed from:

322 starters
17% winners
$ 1.49 ROI


The 2nd off the claim stats are almost unbelievable.

[GameTheory]

Jaime Ness 2nd off the claim

365 starters
32% winners
$ 1.82 ROI

Do the 2nd off stats include those horses that won 1st off?

[Dahoss9698]

Do the 2nd off stats include those horses that won 1st off?

Yes

[CincyHorseplayer]

When Jaime Ness claims a horse:

449 starters
35% winners
$ 1.91 ROI

Jaime Ness 2nd off the claim

365 starters
32% winners
$ 1.82 ROI


When he gets claimed from:

322 starters
17% winners
$ 1.49 ROI


The 2nd off the claim stats are almost unbelievable.

I was looking through Tampa forms from this meet and last looking for whatever,I love to do it from time to time,and the 2nd start off the claim really jumps off the page in Ness horse's PP's.A lot of them win directly off the claim but that 2nd start they blow up.A lot of risers jumping 10-20 speed figure points.

[Dahoss9698]

I'm fascinated with this stuff for some reason.

When Chris Englehart (one of my favorite trainers) claims a horse:

173 starters
29% winners
$ 1.50 ROI


Englehart 2nd off the claim

153 starters
32% winners
$ 2.13 ROI


When Englehart gets claimed from

126 starters
17% winners
$1.80 ROI

[Valuist]

Avoid claimees from Asmussen. I used to track his numbers and the runners were around 5% in the first race for the new barn. But that could've changed in the past 3 years or so.

[Dahoss9698]

First off claim by Asmussen

325 starters
24% winners
$ 1.76 ROI


When claimed off of Asmussen

688 starters
17% winners
$ 1.49 ROI

[Maryland Owner]

Dahoss - check out the stats for Kieron Magee in Maryland - AMAZING first off the claim win %

[Dahoss9698]

Dahoss - check out the stats for Kieron Magee in Maryland - AMAZING first off the claim win %

Amazing indeed.


41 starters
39% winners
$ 3.12 ROI


When he gets claimed from

25 starters
16% winners
$ 0.70 ROI :eek:

[mountainman]

I suspect such stats would reflect an even higher incidence of regression if protection claims could somehow be filtered out.

Keep in mind as well, that not all horses that lose their mojo when claimed from high-percentage trainers were taken by low-percentage or even mediocre barns. Sharks that circle the claimbox often attempt to prey on other sharks, and somebody usually gets bloodied up. Two factors, in my opinion, compel them to do this: 1)Lots of sharp, accomplished-and thus enticing -horses run from outstanding barns. 2)Successful trainers are often too arrogant to acknowledge their own limitations.

Even so, I've often wondered why supertrainers don't claim more often from hapless, low-percentage outfits.

Envy, ego,and even conspiracy all play a role in claiming activity.

[turninforhome10]

Not to dilute this thread as it is very informative, what about the owners that are behind some of these trainers.
Wondering if any can correlate some owner data.
Midwest\Ness, Cole Jr\Wells and Beattie, are just of the top of my head.
For my money, Maggi Moss is probably one of the sharpest owners out there. Can't be the first Woman owner of the year without being really good at what you do. Her numbers with claimers in last 2 years 320-91-65-51 28% 48% 64%
Assmussen as an owner
S/CLM 247-68-38-33 27% 42% 56%
Also if there was a way to tell what conditions the trainer ran out of the horse before loosing them. Lifetime conditions, n?x, after turf season etc.
Good thread
Thanks

[Milkshaker]

"Even so, I've often wondered why supertrainers don't claim more often from hapless, low-percentage outfits."

Although the guy I have in mind is not a "supertrainer," I know one sharp conditioner who used to casually watch the feed trucks unloading at other barns. If he was planning to claim a horse, and additionally saw that the stable fed its animals the generic, cheap-ass bags of feed, he would factor that into his decision to claim (with the idea being a positive nutritional change could help move the horse up a bit).

[mountainman]

"Even so, I've often wondered why supertrainers don't claim more often from hapless, low-percentage outfits."

Although the guy I have in mind is not a "supertrainer," I know one sharp conditioner who used to casually watch the feed trucks unloading at other barns. If he was planning to claim a horse, and additionally saw that the stable fed its animals the generic, cheap-ass bags of feed, he would factor that into his decision to claim (with the idea being a positive nutritional change could help move the horse up a bit).

I like it.

[firstoffclaim]

Kieran has a first off claim in the 2nd at Laurel today

[castaway01]

Kieran has a first off claim in the 2nd at Laurel today

It was too slow to deal with the Lake horse.

The way these things usually go is...once you notice a trainer winning and start betting, he immediately loses 10 in a row. :)

Not really, but it feels that way sometimes.

[lamboguy]

it sure seems like MIKE FARO has been winning a big bunch of races lately everywhere.

[Dahoss9698]

it sure seems like MIKE FARO has been winning a big bunch of races lately everywhere.

I'm being totally genuine when I ask this, so don't take it the wrong way...but where does Mike Faro train? I've never heard of him and tried searching for him and nothing came up.

[lamboguy]

i'm sorry he trains under his wife's name PATRICIA. they have horses in new york, parx, gulfstream, and laurel.

[Dahoss9698]

Okay that makes sense...I've definitely heard of her.

[lamboguy]

she's just the name on the program, he trains in monmouth also.

[Dahoss9698]

Been a strong month for them.

31 starters
35% winners
$ 5.32 ROI :eek:

[lamboguy]

i haven't seen him this hot in the last 20 years.