Dumb Question (claiming game)

[Robert Fischer]

With the advent of slots inflated claiming purses has anyone noticed a spike in claims?

Especially in the lower classes?


It isn't something that I track, but I thought someone may have noticed anecdotal or recorded data.

It seems logical, but that isn't always the case.

[Ernie Dahlman]

I claimed one a week ago and it was due to the bigger purses.There were 8 claims yesterday. If you're claiming be prepared to shake for anything that looks obvious.

[andymays]

I claimed one a week ago and it was due to the bigger purses.There were 8 claims yesterday. If you're claiming be prepared to shake for anything that looks obvious.

Ernie, what is your opinion about the super large purses and whether or not they drive the prices of doing business onward and upward. Everything from the prices Breeders get to the prices the vets charge.

[Ernie Dahlman]

Andymays,

Breeders of NYbreds will actually have a chance to make money. Since my daughter (Jennifer Gurney) has a NY farm where she raises thoroughbreds I like this. As far as daily expenses I really don't know yet.

[andymays]

Andymays,

Breeders of NYbreds will actually have a chance to make money. Since my daughter (Jennifer Gurney) has a NY farm where she raises thoroughbreds I like this. As far as daily expenses I really don't know yet.

What I was really getting at is that if or when the State decides that subsidizing Horse Racing through Slots is not the way to go, what happens when all these cost have gone up and purses have to be dropped? It usually ends up in the Tracks raising the takeout to maintain bigger purses.

[macguy]

What I was really getting at is that if or when the State decides that subsidizing Horse Racing through Slots is not the way to go, what happens when all these cost have gone up and purses have to be dropped? It usually ends up in the Tracks raising the takeout to maintain bigger purses.


Or the purses will just go down and the industry will crumble.

As per the larger purses and more claims...
Last year at Monmouth there were consistently many claims every race card (even multiple claims a race) and it was certainly do to the higher purses.

[Robert Fischer]

I claimed one a week ago and it was due to the bigger purses.There were 8 claims yesterday. If you're claiming be prepared to shake for anything that looks obvious.


thank you for an answer. :ThmbUp:

Seem to have noticed more of my watch-horses getting claimed.

[thaskalos]

What I was really getting at is that if or when the State decides that subsidizing Horse Racing through Slots is not the way to go, what happens when all these cost have gone up and purses have to be dropped? It usually ends up in the Tracks raising the takeout to maintain bigger purses.
If these costs are really going up as a result of the fast-increasing purses...then they should have no trouble GOING DOWN...when the purses free fall, should the casino money go away.

In any case...I doubt that raising the takeouts will be their first option.

Look for a massive reduction of racetracks...

[andymays]

If these costs are really going up as a result of the fast-increasing purses...then they should have no trouble GOING DOWN...when the purses free fall, should the casino money go away.

In any case...I doubt that raising the takeouts will be their first option.

Look for a massive reduction of racetracks...

The experience in California kind of proves my point. They've had takeout increases before and said that would be the last time they'd need to raise the take. Last year we saw that they needed another big one and cited the same excuses they had when they last needed to raise it.

[Linny]

There have been alot of claims in NY and the way claimed horses are handled has changed and will continue.

Those of you who do claim might add to this, but from the handicapper's perpective I am adjusting my attitude toward "drop of the claim" angles. Used to be that if a horse was claimed and given a month to clear "jail" and dropped in price it was a negative angle. Unless it was a trainer who was famous for it, (like Jacobson or for an owner like Ramsey) or the drop was quite small ($45k to $40) I figured it was a bad sign, esp when combined with lack of morning breezes. Now, you can take a horse for $25k, drop to $15k and win while losing the horse and be ahead so the game is very different.

I noticed that 11yo Callmetony was claimed last week. That's a pretty bold move and a few years ago, might not have happened. Now, he can stay at his $7500 level and run for purses 50% higher than he could have a few months ago.

[thaskalos]

There have been alot of claims in NY and the way claimed horses are handled has changed and will continue.

Those of you who do claim might add to this, but from the handicapper's perpective I am adjusting my attitude toward "drop of the claim" angles. Used to be that if a horse was claimed and given a month to clear "jail" and dropped in price it was a negative angle. Unless it was a trainer who was famous for it, (like Jacobson or for an owner like Ramsey) or the drop was quite small ($45k to $40) I figured it was a bad sign, esp when combined with lack of morning breezes. Now, you can take a horse for $25k, drop to $15k and win while losing the horse and be ahead so the game is very different.

I noticed that 11yo Callmetony was claimed last week. That's a pretty bold move and a few years ago, might not have happened. Now, he can stay at his $7500 level and run for purses 50% higher than he could have a few months ago.
Excellent point.

[Ernie Dahlman]

What I was really getting at is that if or when the State decides that subsidizing Horse Racing through Slots is not the way to go, what happens when all these cost have gone up and purses have to be dropped? It usually ends up in the Tracks raising the takeout to maintain bigger purses.

I apologize, I thought you were asking me a question. Next time I'll know not to respond.

[cj]

One thing that has definitely changed is the ratio of purses to claiming prices. It has changed how the claiming game is played. It used to be you claimed a horse and had to win a few races at least to get your money back. Now, people try to flip horses like they do houses in foreclosure. I personally don't think it is a good thing, especially if you care about horses.

[andymays]

I apologize, I thought you were asking me a question. Next time I'll know not to respond.

I was asking a question that I've asked Owners and Trainers out here along with horseplayers. I didn't know that you owned horses or that anyone in your family was in the business.

[andymays]

One thing that has definitely changed is the ratio of purses to claiming prices. It has changed how the claiming game is played. It used to be you claimed a horse and had to win a few races at least to get your money back. Now, people try to flip horses like they do houses in foreclosure. I personally don't think it is a good thing, especially if you care about horses.

Everything has an optimal price and I think purses have an optimal price in each jurisdiction. Is there such a thing as purses being too big? Maybe there is.

[classhandicapper]

I don't know how it's going to turn out, but I would guess that as purses increase, so do the values of the horses.

One possibility is that the entire claiming structure changes.

We may see 100K or even 125k claimers with horses that used to run for 50k-75k.

50k-75k races with the former 35K horses etc...

If not, it might become easier to claim horses profitably. So more people will get into the business and ultimately drive up the prices and excess profits out.

Then again, so few make money in this business as it is, maybe nothing will happen other than fewer people will be losing money and those that are will lose less.

[classhandicapper]

Used to be that if a horse was claimed and given a month to clear "jail" and dropped in price it was a negative angle. Unless it was a trainer who was famous for it, (like Jacobson or for an owner like Ramsey) or the drop was quite small ($45k to $40) I figured it was a bad sign, esp when combined with lack of morning breezes. Now, you can take a horse for $25k, drop to $15k and win while losing the horse and be ahead so the game is very different.


No one is worse at evaluating negative claiming drops than I am, but I've always done that kind of calculation.

If the purse is large enough for the connections to "profit" with a win, then I tend to be less skeptical of the drop. The only thing that will change in my approach is the math because the purses are bigger.

[Tom]

Just MHO, huge purses will kill the game.
The value of the game lies in the value of the horses.
When you can make far more money in one race than the horse is worth, you will have no more reason for claiming tags.

[Robert Fischer]

Interesting, are you talking about raising the claiming price to fit the purse ??

I don't know how it's going to turn out, but I would guess that as purses increase, so do the values of the horses.

One possibility is that the entire claiming structure changes.

We may see 100K or even 125k claimers with horses that used to run for 50k-75k.

50k-75k races with the former 35K horses etc...

If not, it might become easier to claim horses profitably. So more people will get into the business and ultimately drive up the prices and excess profits out.

Then again, so few make money in this business as it is, maybe nothing will happen other than fewer people will be losing money and those that are will lose less.

[highnote]

Everything has an optimal price and I think purses have an optimal price in each jurisdiction. Is there such a thing as purses being too big? Maybe there is.


I don't know if this is correct, but my hunch is that purses can never be too big. However, purses can be concentrated in too many stakes races which leaves too little for the bred and butter claiming races.

Maybe it's better to put more money at the claiming levels so that horsemen can stay in business. The horsemen who regularly run for stakes races probably don't need the money as much as the claiming horsemen.

If a race is Graded stakes is $400,000 rather than $500,000 will that make the race any less competitive? Well, it might if there are a bunch of $500,000 races carded elsewhere on the same weekend. But if there are no other ones carded then the $400,000 might be pretty attractive. The $100,000 saved can be used to boost purses elsewhere.

[onefast99]

I don't know if this is correct, but my hunch is that purses can never be too big. However, purses can be concentrated in too many stakes races which leaves too little for the bred and butter claiming races.

Maybe it's better to put more money at the claiming levels so that horsemen can stay in business. The horsemen who regularly run for stakes races probably don't need the money as much as the claiming horsemen.

If a race is Graded stakes is $400,000 rather than $500,000 will that make the race any less competitive? Well, it might if there are a bunch of $500,000 races carded elsewhere on the same weekend. But if there are no other ones carded then the $400,000 might be pretty attractive. The $100,000 saved can be used to boost purses elsewhere.
You bring up a good point on reducing the stakes purses and putting the money towards the bread and butter horses, the claimers. Parx and Aqueduct will be fighting it out with high purses to lure the claimers in while other local tracks like MP and Delaware will have to do something to stay competitive and based on what has transpired over the past few months with Morris Bailey walking away as the lessee MP will be run by the NJSEA again with very limited funds.

[OTM Al]

One thing that has definitely changed is the ratio of purses to claiming prices. It has changed how the claiming game is played. It used to be you claimed a horse and had to win a few races at least to get your money back. Now, people try to flip horses like they do houses in foreclosure. I personally don't think it is a good thing, especially if you care about horses.

This is really an interesting thought. It is as if the long term pricing model on claimers has collapsed and speculation is now playing an even bigger role. Speculative bubbles on the claiming horse market which leads to trouble actually valuing the animals. Adds to increased chaos in the placing of the animals in races and further consequences such as what you have observed in the tentpole speed figure.

[aaron]

I've seen a few races this week at Aqueduct when horses have tried to move up from 7500-10000 claiming prices to 25000 claiming price with a last race figure that was competitive and all got beat. Conversely,there were races where horses dropped down where there last figure was slow and they ran back to their better figures.
At this time,with all the claiming going on,I feel that you should not be afraid to bet the drop downs if you like the horse. This is the game the trainers are playing now. Claim a horse,drop,win make your investment with a profit if the horse is claimed. If horse isn't claimed,run back in same class and win again.
The top claiming trainers will play this game as long as they can show a profit.
I think there was a race Sunday that had 4-5 horses claimed out of it.Well,it should be an interesting winter at NYRA.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

I think that healthy purses for lower end horses has more pluses than minuses. Bottom line, it attracts more owners to the game, and with that, more players (owners friends and small partners start playing horses).
If there is a decent chance of breaking even or even making money owning bottom claimer types, the backstretch economy strengthens as well.

There is also more opportunity for claims to work out real well, as bargains can be found (claiming a horse from someone looking short term), which is even more incentive for new owners who are looking more long term.

From a handicapping perspective it isn't as good because there are many races where horses in good form drop (especially conditioned horses that are positioned to get the condition perhaps keeping potential claims to a minimum) and this causes shorter prices. But on a positive note, overlays can be found when these horses move up the ladder a little as sometimes a $20,000 claimer is just as tough as a $7,500 claimer, especially at a track where slots make up a lot of the purse.

Fort Erie was a perfect example of all the above. The game was thriving in the early part of the last decade, but slot revenues dwindled (Sars, 9/11 border problems, competition from Buffalo and Niagara Falls casinos all contributed to drastic decreases in purses and racing dates).

Fort Erie forgot about the bettor when casino revenues were high. They kept a very high takeout instead of lowering it and cultivating new customers.
Now they are barely hanging on.

It is great to see a track like Charles Town trying to cultivate new players with reduced takeout rates while they are getting a good chunk of dough from slots.

[classhandicapper]

Interesting, are you talking about raising the claiming price to fit the purse ??

Yes.

Just a very wild guess and it may not likely, but it might make sense if both the quality increases and the horses are perceived to have more value because they can earn more.