windoor
01-07-2012, 04:19 PM
Warning: Long post.
Feel free to pass it by, we need your money in the wagering pools.
My take on database handicapping.
My very first post here on Pace Advantage was an inquiry about where I might find some software that would allow be to see if my "spot" plays could be successful at other tracks.
I got some good advice, but the only ones that looked like it could come close to what I wanted was from two of the vendors that advertise right here. Jeff Platts J/Capper and Dave Schwartz's HSH system.
Both had, what I thought at the time, a premium price tag. I know better now. I am very frugal with a dollar and it took me a long time to make up my mind how I wanted to spend it. After I realized what a properly set up database could do for me, the decision became much easier.
Just think about how much money is lost wagering on horses or betting methods that historically lose money. If you could research what you do now, and the data says you would lose money doing it the same way, why on earth would you continue to do it?
The above software can be set up to give you these answers and more importantly help you find those little nuggets that are all so profitable. Put a value on that.
I have been getting a fair amount of requests asking me what and how I use the database software in my handicapping. I never intended it to be a black box that selects my horses to wager on. This was just an added bonus.
If fact, I believe I went on record saying I would never trust a machine to pick my wagers for me. One short year later, here I am, playing the selections the machine spits out. Go figure.
First thing you must understand is, that this is just a tool (albeit a very powerful one) like any other. You don't just buy these programs and become and instant profitable player.
What they can do for you, is save you a lot of cash and lots, and lots of time.
As long as you can get "your" factor set into them, then they can provide the answers that you seek. Both come with hundreds if not thousands of factors to choose from and may very well be all that you need. I have discovered more than a few that work very well for me.
The other recent thread here turned to a discussion about factors. What are they? How many are there? Which ones are more important than the others?
How many do you need to use at one time?
The short answer is "It depends". My signature refers to the "Seven" which I consider to be very important "factors" before you even consider applying any handicapping rules.
If your still wondering what "Divide by seven" means.
It is simply a process of breaking down your plays by, 1) track, 2) surface, 3) Distance, 4) class, 5) sex, 6) age, and 7) time of year. The last is something I am still researching, but looks to be quite interesting and definitely has an impact on my game.
When you choose a track, you must understand that the surface can change (variant) depending on time of year and/or current weather conditions. Different times of year also can indicate when shippers are coming in, either from a major or minor track. I believe one of our members here plays this angle quite successfully. I have also found that a young 3 yr old (in the spring) is not the same horse as a 3 1/2 yr. old later in the year.
The order you take them can play a role too, I have found many things, that at first, don't seem to work very well, but really comes alive when you select the type of races, distance and class factors, along with the when and where to play them.
Just another way of saying, you must pass a lot races until you get one with an edge. Doing research like this within a database, is one way to avoid the losers.
The other part has to do with what factors are more important than the others. "The numbers have hinges"
A short story from my journal.
"It was the middle of the night, when I awoke with an epiphany. I didn’t realize it at the time as my wife told me I woke her up and blurted out "The numbers have hinges” and then went back to sleep. I didn’t know what that meant at the time, and shrugged it off as just a weird dream. I could not have been more wrong.
I am a strong believer in the power of the sub-conscience mind to resolve problems. I’m sure, you have heard of the saying “let me sleep on it” to resolve problems or uncertainties. Good advice.
I remember having a very difficult time in separating my Key Factor list in some sort of priority order for the races I was looking at. In my dream, I was looking at my key factor list and then down at my racing form. I arranged the numbers to where I thought they needed to be and chose another race to look at. When I looked up again, the factor list had changed in order. This went on for some time, and I became very agitated as every time I though I had them in the correct order, they would change when I looked up again.
Then out of the corner of my (dreaming) eye as I was looking down at a new race, I saw some movement. A closer look as I was changing the race revealed the numbers rearrange themselves by turning on “hinges”. The reason they were changing was because the factor list changed in priority depending on what “type” of race I had in front of me. It all made perfect sense what I stopped to think about it. Eureka!!! "
Bottom line is, if you do not have a way to research you plays, you are playing in the dark, throwing darts, and hope to hit something. Yes you can get lucky for a time, but I would rather have proven methods to start with.
A database at the very least will show you were you are losing money and at the most make you one of the very few who consistently earn a profit at the track.
My advise. Give Jeff or Dave (or somebody) a call to see what their products have to offer. It might just be the best thing you did for your game.
Regards,
Windoor
Feel free to pass it by, we need your money in the wagering pools.
My take on database handicapping.
My very first post here on Pace Advantage was an inquiry about where I might find some software that would allow be to see if my "spot" plays could be successful at other tracks.
I got some good advice, but the only ones that looked like it could come close to what I wanted was from two of the vendors that advertise right here. Jeff Platts J/Capper and Dave Schwartz's HSH system.
Both had, what I thought at the time, a premium price tag. I know better now. I am very frugal with a dollar and it took me a long time to make up my mind how I wanted to spend it. After I realized what a properly set up database could do for me, the decision became much easier.
Just think about how much money is lost wagering on horses or betting methods that historically lose money. If you could research what you do now, and the data says you would lose money doing it the same way, why on earth would you continue to do it?
The above software can be set up to give you these answers and more importantly help you find those little nuggets that are all so profitable. Put a value on that.
I have been getting a fair amount of requests asking me what and how I use the database software in my handicapping. I never intended it to be a black box that selects my horses to wager on. This was just an added bonus.
If fact, I believe I went on record saying I would never trust a machine to pick my wagers for me. One short year later, here I am, playing the selections the machine spits out. Go figure.
First thing you must understand is, that this is just a tool (albeit a very powerful one) like any other. You don't just buy these programs and become and instant profitable player.
What they can do for you, is save you a lot of cash and lots, and lots of time.
As long as you can get "your" factor set into them, then they can provide the answers that you seek. Both come with hundreds if not thousands of factors to choose from and may very well be all that you need. I have discovered more than a few that work very well for me.
The other recent thread here turned to a discussion about factors. What are they? How many are there? Which ones are more important than the others?
How many do you need to use at one time?
The short answer is "It depends". My signature refers to the "Seven" which I consider to be very important "factors" before you even consider applying any handicapping rules.
If your still wondering what "Divide by seven" means.
It is simply a process of breaking down your plays by, 1) track, 2) surface, 3) Distance, 4) class, 5) sex, 6) age, and 7) time of year. The last is something I am still researching, but looks to be quite interesting and definitely has an impact on my game.
When you choose a track, you must understand that the surface can change (variant) depending on time of year and/or current weather conditions. Different times of year also can indicate when shippers are coming in, either from a major or minor track. I believe one of our members here plays this angle quite successfully. I have also found that a young 3 yr old (in the spring) is not the same horse as a 3 1/2 yr. old later in the year.
The order you take them can play a role too, I have found many things, that at first, don't seem to work very well, but really comes alive when you select the type of races, distance and class factors, along with the when and where to play them.
Just another way of saying, you must pass a lot races until you get one with an edge. Doing research like this within a database, is one way to avoid the losers.
The other part has to do with what factors are more important than the others. "The numbers have hinges"
A short story from my journal.
"It was the middle of the night, when I awoke with an epiphany. I didn’t realize it at the time as my wife told me I woke her up and blurted out "The numbers have hinges” and then went back to sleep. I didn’t know what that meant at the time, and shrugged it off as just a weird dream. I could not have been more wrong.
I am a strong believer in the power of the sub-conscience mind to resolve problems. I’m sure, you have heard of the saying “let me sleep on it” to resolve problems or uncertainties. Good advice.
I remember having a very difficult time in separating my Key Factor list in some sort of priority order for the races I was looking at. In my dream, I was looking at my key factor list and then down at my racing form. I arranged the numbers to where I thought they needed to be and chose another race to look at. When I looked up again, the factor list had changed in order. This went on for some time, and I became very agitated as every time I though I had them in the correct order, they would change when I looked up again.
Then out of the corner of my (dreaming) eye as I was looking down at a new race, I saw some movement. A closer look as I was changing the race revealed the numbers rearrange themselves by turning on “hinges”. The reason they were changing was because the factor list changed in priority depending on what “type” of race I had in front of me. It all made perfect sense what I stopped to think about it. Eureka!!! "
Bottom line is, if you do not have a way to research you plays, you are playing in the dark, throwing darts, and hope to hit something. Yes you can get lucky for a time, but I would rather have proven methods to start with.
A database at the very least will show you were you are losing money and at the most make you one of the very few who consistently earn a profit at the track.
My advise. Give Jeff or Dave (or somebody) a call to see what their products have to offer. It might just be the best thing you did for your game.
Regards,
Windoor