Discreet Dancer

[Beachbabe]

Pletcher's Discreet Dancer won his second race in 2 starts today, crushing a decent field of first-level allowance horses at Gulfstream. After winning his debut by over 9 lengths, posting a Bris number of 99, he stretched out today, running the mile in 1:36.2.
Wonder if he moves him up the allowance ladder or goes right to a stakes now.
Could be a very good one.

[redshift1]

Holy Bull at 1 mile or Hutcheson at 7 furlongs. Probably graded stakes from now on.

[Beachbabe]

Holy Bull at 1 mile or Hutcheson at 7 furlongs. Probably graded stakes from now on.


I'm thinking "Holy Bull", redshift.
He showed he's more than a sprinter today. It remains to be seen what happens around two turns when that time comes.

[PhantomOnTour]

But how will this Pletcher colt perform when he leaves GP????

[Beachbabe]

I'm thinking "Holy Bull", redshift.
He showed he's more than a sprinter today. It remains to be seen what happens around two turns when that time comes.


Well, I got that wrong. According to Pletcher:

Pletcher said it was a little too early to say where or when Discreet Dancer might run next but ruled out the one-mile Holy Bull on Jan. 29 as a possibility.

“This race opened up a lot of options but it would be a little quick for his third start to come back in the Holy Bull,” said Pletcher. “And off what I saw today I wouldn’t mind stretching him out further.”

[Dahoss9698]

But how will this Pletcher colt perform when he leaves GP????

Not well IMO.

[Beachbabe]

Not well IMO.


Why ?

[Dahoss9698]

Why ?

Pletcher always has a bunch of horses run huge races at Gulfstream and they seldom run back to those races when they leave Florida.

For example, last year Discreet Dancer's half brother Travelin Man broke his maiden with a 106 Beyer, ran 2nd in the Hutcheson and won the Swale with a 100 Beyer all at Gulfstream. He left Florida and ran 6th in the Derby Trial, 4th in the Woody Stephens and 7th in the Amsterdam.

Also last year, Shared Heart broke her maiden by 11 (while bearing out badly through the stretch) at Gulfstream. She's still trying to get out of her non winners of 1 condition a year later.

Escort was a horse Pletcher had last year, but now Tom Proctor has him. He broke his maiden and won an allowance race beating future stakes winner Indiano at Gulfstream. He then proceeded to run 5th of 6 at 4/5 at Keeneland and was 6th of 8 at 2-1 at Pimlico.

Maybe this one will buck this trend, but I won't be betting on it.

[JustRalph]

Pletcher always has a bunch of horses run huge races at Gulfstream and they seldom run back to those races when they leave Florida.

For example, last year Discreet Dancer's half brother Travelin Man broke his maiden with a 106 Beyer, ran 2nd in the Hutcheson and won the Swale with a 100 Beyer all at Gulfstream. He left Florida and ran 6th in the Derby Trial, 4th in the Woody Stephens and 7th in the Amsterdam.

Also last year, Shared Heart broke her maiden by 11 (while bearing out badly through the stretch) at Gulfstream. She's still trying to get out of her non winners of 1 condition a year later.

Escort was a horse Pletcher had last year, but now Tom Proctor has him. He broke his maiden and won an allowance race beating future stakes winner Indiano at Gulfstream. He then proceeded to run 5th of 6 at 4/5 at Keeneland and was 6th of 8 at 2-1 at Pimlico.

Maybe this one will buck this trend, but I won't be betting on it.

I would be interested to hear your theory on why these horses fail when shipped?

[Tom]

Interesting situation...I most always throw out any big race if it came from GP.
No idea why, but a big race at GP never impresses me.

[RXB]

Discreet Dancer can run but today he set a modest pace, pressed mildly only by a 100/1 shot, then drew off as one might expect a reasonably talented horse to do under those circumstances.

Beat very little in his first race. Every horse that wasn't a first-time starter had already lost at least one MCL race; and none of the other firsters ran very well, either.

Pedigree says anything beyond a mile will probably result in a drop-off. Of course he will be stretched out, not shortened up for at least his next start as he will now be sent on the Derby trail. I'd probably be inclined to play against this horse next time if he goes farther in distance, faces some legit pace competition for the first time and is the betting favourite.

[redshift1]

Well, I got that wrong. According to Pletcher:

Pletcher said it was a little too early to say where or when Discreet Dancer might run next but ruled out the one-mile Holy Bull on Jan. 29 as a possibility.

“This race opened up a lot of options but it would be a little quick for his third start to come back in the Holy Bull,” said Pletcher. “And off what I saw today I wouldn’t mind stretching him out further.”


On HRTV's First Call they interviewed Pletcher Saturday morning and he commented on the owner being in no hurry with this colt. The Fountain of Youth late February at 8.5 might work if they plan to keep him at Gulfstream which makes sense considering his success there.

The possibility of Hansen, Union Rags and Discreet Dancer all competing in the Gulfstream 3 YR Old races exists of course DD has yet to prove himself against stakes horses that's why I like build up to the KD, so many compelling races to follow.

[lamboguy]

horse racing is almost the same as a boxing match. when a boxer faces less talented boxers he looks great when he knocks them out, that does not mean when the boxer gets to the real world and faces another guy that is real good that he can beat that guy.

yesterday, Discreet Dancer was in a nw2 field where the only competition should not even have run in the race. even though One Sock Down worked great, he was making funny noises. that horse did not figure to be at full tilt prior to the race. so now Descreet Dancer winds up blowing a very weak field apart to smitherines and looked great doing it.

it really remains to be seen how he does when he has to step up to a field that is not empty.

remember that in the morning the horses that train in palm meadows train with the best horses around. todd peltcher horses are all going to have a big edge when his horses walk on the track on hallendale beach blvd. every afternoon.

i have talked about how this game has evolved with trainer's that deal with a large number of horses. if bill mott, todd pletcher, steve assmussen, ken mcpeak had been the trainer of One Sock Down, you would have never seen that horse in the race yesterday. eddie coletti is a real good trainer, he knows this game well and knows how to train a horse. i don't know who's decision it was to run One Sock Down yesterday.

[redshift1]

96 Beyer

[classhandicapper]

There are several interesting things about Florida.

A number of horses that ran really well in NY last year shipped to Florida for a stakes race and ran like crap. When they came back to NY they ran right back to their big races.

A lot of cheaper horses that ship up to NY after wintering there seem to "jump up" when they get to NY in late winter/early spring and face weaker NY winter stock.

Yet, Pletcher seems to get some big races down there and then some of the horses don't run well outside GP.

[lamboguy]

i would love to be clued into where pletcher's horses don't run well once they leave florida?

[Casino]

i would love to be clued into where pletcher's horses don't run well once they leave florida?

Quality Road
Travelin Man

[cj]

i would love to be clued into where pletcher's horses don't run well once they leave florida?

There is a very long list of horses that look great for TP at Gulfstream and never do anything else. If you need us to give you a list, you aren't paying attention.

[lamboguy]

There is a very long list of horses that look great for TP at Gulfstream and never do anything else. If you need us to give you a list, you aren't paying attention.
i wasn't asking for a list of horses, i was wondering the places or the actual racetracks where he doesn't win.

he has over 100 new horses every year, i don't think its that tough to find a small percentage of them that have not performed well once they leave florida.

[Valuist]

i wasn't asking for a list of horses, i was wondering the places or the actual racetracks where he doesn't win.

he has over 100 new horses every year, i don't think its that tough to find a small percentage of them that have not performed well once they leave florida.

I seem to remember him having a few bad meets at Churchill. Not horrible but more like 12% or so instead of the low-mid 20%.

[turninforhome10]

I have a theory. Say that Dahoss and I are going to have match race 3 months from now with two prep race in between. Dahoss trains on deep sand while I train on asphalt. We run our first two races on asphalt. My speed holds true and I win the first two. Then we got to a different track that is deep sand and while my speed holds him off for a while the long term training on the deeper surface and better fitness finally pushes through and Dahoss crushes me. When the speed back up the real fitness and distance capabilities finally come to the forefront. Just a theory.

[sammy the sage]

There is a very long list of horses that look great for TP at Gulfstream and never do anything else. If you need us to give you a list, you aren't paying attention.

Big Brown & Barbaro were 3/1 instead of 4/5 in the derby w/this kinda thinking...thanks for the extra...it WAS good

Now the take's on the Pletcher's...agree w/that..

[Dahoss9698]

Big Brown & Barbaro were 3/1 instead of 4/5 in the derby w/this kinda thinking...thanks for the extra...it WAS good :kiss:

Now the take's on the Pletcher's...agree w/that...

Actually Barbaro was 6-1 in the Derby and Big Brown was 2-1, but facts aren't really important. But you really think he should have been 4/5 in a 20 horse field coming off a 1/2 length win in the Florida Derby?

[cj]

Big Brown & Barbaro were 3/1 instead of 4/5 in the derby w/this kinda thinking...thanks for the extra...it WAS good

Now the take's on the Pletcher's...agree w/that..

I didn't realize Pletcher trained Big Brown or Barbaro. Good to know.

[cj]

I have a theory. Say that Dahoss and I are going to have match race 3 months from now with two prep race in between. Dahoss trains on deep sand while I train on asphalt. We run our first two races on asphalt. My speed holds true and I win the first two. Then we got to a different track that is deep sand and while my speed holds him off for a while the long term training on the deeper surface and better fitness finally pushes through and Dahoss crushes me. When the speed back up the real fitness and distance capabilities finally come to the forefront. Just a theory.

I understand what you are saying, but I rarely see this sort of thing play out. The difference in speed between a fast track and a tiring track isn't nearly as big as some would have you believe, certainly not close to comparing pavement to sand.

[turninforhome10]

I understand what you are saying, but I rarely see this sort of thing play out. The difference in speed between a fast track and a tiring track isn't nearly as big as some would have you believe, certainly not close to comparing pavement to sand.

Maybe not so much on speed but on longevity of form, Would be a different type of conditioning of muscles. I think of the example of horses coming in from OP to PRM in the spring. The horses that showed form early from OP seemed to get tired at PRM but later do well with each start on the strip while the horses that got good late in the OP fired well for the first couple of starts and started slowing down and falling from form more quickly than the early form horses. What this is a twisted way of saying that horses that train on a deeper surface and stay sound usually keep their form longer than horses that train on fast strips and have run huge performances on brilliant surfaces. The horses that were throwing bullets works at OP late in the meet when the surface gets much tighter than early seemed to get more problems, knees ankles. The horses that trained on a deeper surface while they get body sore more easily, the concussive forces on the legs would be less. I think of Payson Park horses. A bullet 48 at Payson is a pretty stout work, vs 48 at Palm Meadows.

[Valuist]

Big Brown & Barbaro were 3/1 instead of 4/5 in the derby w/this kinda thinking...thanks for the extra...it WAS good

Now the take's on the Pletcher's...agree w/that..

Would you take 2-1 on a horse breaking from the TWENTY hole in a two turn race?

[Blenheim]

What I find perplexing is the different workout patterns at Gulfstream and Santa Anita.
~
Two maiden horses of equal quality, one working with Baffert, the other working with Pletcher. Each horse twelve works:

Baffert gives his horse 2 works at 3f; 4 works at 4fl; 4 works at 5fl and 2 works at 6fl, the last two 6fl works at racing speed, one at 1:13.1 the next at 1:11.4

Pletcher gives his horse 3 works at 3f; 6 works at 4fl; 3 works at 5fl, the last three works at near racing speed; two at 1:01.00 the next at 1:00.

If I plug in Sadler in place of Baffert, I might see a solid 7fl work in 1:26.

~

From what I've seen, most of the trainers at SA use a workout pattern that is significantly more rigorous than the work out patterns used by trainers at GP. Given equal horses run on a neutral surface, I figure the horses w/the longest and strongest patterns of works will perform best. When I review the workout patterns by Baffert, I'm confident of what I can expect the horse to do, not so when I look at the workouts by Pletcher. As these horses move up in conditions I would expect he Pletcher horse to be less successful with the short weak works and the Baffert horse to be more successful with the long strong works.

Nothin' like the Derby Trail.

[maclr11]

Were gonna get to see a peak of how good Discreet Dancer might be with Neck 'N Neck running Saturday in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa. He ran 2nd to Discreet Dancer last time. Might provide some clue.