Estimated pick 3 pay outs

[Robert Goren]

Does anyone have method of estimating pick 3 payouts?

[cj]

I'd try figuring the parlay then adding 25%. At small tracks, or Gulfstream, just throw darts.

Tampa had this sequence today:

5.20, 6.00, 9.80.

To estimate, take 2.6 x 6 = 15.6 / 2 = 7.8. If you estimated the last horse would be off at 4 to 1, or 10.00, you get a $2 parlay of $78. Add the 25% and you get $97.50.

The actual P3 paid $126.

[gm10]

Does anyone have method of estimating pick 3 payouts?

Obviously it depends on the official prices, but also on the sequence of the winners. Longshot x Fav x Fav for example will pay only slightly above parlay odds. Fav x Fav x Longshot will get you a higher premium. The logic behind this is that once bettors have found a longshot, they prefer to play it in the first leg. They'd rather be out of the pick 3 after the first leg.

I've got an article on it somewhere, but only on paper. Somebody posted it here a few years ago.

[gm10]

found it

"
In examining Table 4, it is clear that the lowest premium relative to the win-parlay bet, 16%, occurs when all three favorites win their races in the three race sequence. The premium is also subpar when favorites win exactly two of the three races in a pick three sequence. This is consistent with behavior in which the bettor is willing to take a chance on a longshot in one race, but too risk-averse to leave out the favorites in the other two races. A subset of this case occurs when a horse other than the favorite wins the first leg, and favorites win the second and third legs of the sequence. This pick three outcome only occurred 11 times at the Santa Anita meet, but the regression presented in Table 5 suggests a very small premium, 14%, in this event. "

http://www.econ.washington.edu/user/ellis/econ482/horse1105.pdf

[Midnight Cruiser]

found it

"
In examining Table 4, it is clear that the lowest premium relative to the win-parlay bet, 16%, occurs when all three favorites win their races in the three race sequence. The premium is also subpar when favorites win exactly two of the three races in a pick three sequence. This is consistent with behavior in which the bettor is willing to take a chance on a longshot in one race, but too risk-averse to leave out the favorites in the other two races. A subset of this case occurs when a horse other than the favorite wins the first leg, and favorites win the second and third legs of the sequence. This pick three outcome only occurred 11 times at the Santa Anita meet, but the regression presented in Table 5 suggests a very small premium, 14%, in this event. "

http://www.econ.washington.edu/user/ellis/econ482/horse1105.pdf

Thanks for that. Ive been looking for help in structuring p3's and 4s and your timing was excellent.