Aqu so far

[misscashalot]

out of 9 races so far at Aqu
at 2 turns
4 won by fav and
4 won by second bet choice

[Tom]

There have only been 9 route races so far????
Since when?

[misscashalot]

There have only been 9 route races so far????
Since when?

Since jan 1st

9 races at 2 turns

[Tom]

OK....thought you meant since the inner opened.
My bad.

[misscashalot]

OK....thought you meant since the inner opened.
My bad.

which brings up an important point for me.
I bet only NYRA, there are 7 distinct meets,
each require different approaches because of
surface changes, age conditions, and other factors.
The meets are
Jan AQU Inner
Apr Aqu Main Dirt and Turf
Bel Spring
Saratoga
Bel Fall Dirt and Turf
Aqu Oct Main Dirt and Turf
Aqu Dec Inner dirt.
For me, what works in May for instance
usually doesn't work at other times.
Also I don't use Sprint/Routes
I use 1 turn/2Turn
So a 1-1/16 on the Bel dirt is 1 turn,
But 1 mile on the Inner at Aqu is 2 Turn.

[misscashalot]

out of 9 races so far at Aqu
at 2 turns
4 won by fav and
4 won by second bet choice

as of Jan 6th
out of 14 races

6 won by favs and
7 won by second bet choice

[Robert Fischer]

as of Jan 6th
out of 14 races

6 won by favs and
7 won by second bet choice

good stuff.

[vikingrob]

which brings up an important point for me.
I bet only NYRA, there are 7 distinct meets,
each require different approaches because of
surface changes, age conditions, and other factors.
The meets are
Jan AQU Inner
Apr Aqu Main Dirt and Turf
Bel Spring
Saratoga
Bel Fall Dirt and Turf
Aqu Oct Main Dirt and Turf
Aqu Dec Inner dirt.
For me, what works in May for instance
usually doesn't work at other times.
Also I don't use Sprint/Routes
I use 1 turn/2Turn
So a 1-1/16 on the Bel dirt is 1 turn,
But 1 mile on the Inner at Aqu is 2 Turn.

I can definitely imagine but I don't see why December inner at Aqueduct would be markedly different (at least in a normal winter) to January through March of the following calendar year. However, with the events of recent winters (the demise of NYCOTB and the introduction of the casino money this winter) some winters will naturally be split. NYRA year round is complex enough given that you have a total of nine courses to consider (three at each track), of which three are configurations you don't see elsewhere in America (the three Belmont courses) and the number of races that are run there where the first yards of the race are not parallel to the homestretch (1 mile and 1 1/16 on the Widener turf and 1 1/16 on the inner).

However, you will need a good understanding of racing at Parx, Delaware, Finger Lakes, Gulfstream, and Tampa Bay, too.

[misscashalot]

I can definitely imagine but I don't see why December inner at Aqueduct would be markedly different (at least in a normal winter) to January through March of the following calendar year. .....

Some important and some subtle reasons that have a great effect on actual and bettor perceived factors that change the betting patterns and payouts. In the late 2010 meet on the inner there was an average of 7.03 runners per race, in Jan-March 2011 meet there were 7.72 runners per race. Jocks and trainers have a mass exodus that completes by new years. Average odds of winning horses in the Dec 2010 meet was $4.77/1, in the Jan-March 2011 meet was $3.42. These are just 3 factors that change the betting dynamics. These may not effect cappers who use different betting elements to chose from in order to make their selections, but they sure have an important weight on my choices.

[misscashalot]

as of Jan 6th
out of 14 races

6 won by favs and
7 won by second bet choice

As of Jan 7th
out of 18 races

8 favs
8 second choices

[misscashalot]

As of Jan 7th
out of 18 races

8 favs
8 second choices

As of Jan 8th
20 races at 2 turns

10 winning favs
8 winning second choices

[ranchwest]

As of Jan 8th
20 races at 2 turns

10 winning favs
8 winning second choices

For this to have any significance, I think one has to examine the condition book. The Racing Secretary can influence the price of winners based on how the races are written.

[misscashalot]

For this to have any significance, I think one has to examine the condition book. The Racing Secretary can influence the price of winners based on how the races are written.

Interesting
Can you please explain further?

[ranchwest]

Interesting
Can you please explain further?
The Racing Secretary has to match races to the horses stalled/available. He probably has an idea as to the likely favorite when he writes a race. If you know the condition book and the available horses, you can probably give an educated estimate of which weeks of the season might be more likely to see winning favorites.

[misscashalot]

The Racing Secretary has to match races to the horses stalled/available. He probably has an idea as to the likely favorite when he writes a race. If you know the condition book and the available horses, you can probably give an educated estimate of which weeks of the season might be more likely to see winning favorites.

If only it were able to be quantified then perhaps losing streaks would be a thing of the past

[ranchwest]

My point is that you will have some types of races with a high percentage of winning favorites and some with a low percentage. Just because a season has a lot of winning favorites in part of the season doesn't mean much. Maybe you just haven't seen the 1 1/8 mi s7500nw1y F&M (or similar) races yet.

[Cholly]

As of Jan 8th
20 races at 2 turns

10 winning favs
8 winning second choices

and then there was today...

[misscashalot]

and then there was today...

Yes...you beat me to it.
It seems mother nature has gotten her sensibilities back.
It was a profitable run while it lasted.
However I'm on the come for the return to favoritism tomorrow.
Check back in 24 hrs. :bang:

[misscashalot]

Yes...you beat me to it.
It seems mother nature has gotten her sensibilities back.
It was a profitable run while it lasted.
However I'm on the come for the return to favoritism tomorrow.
Check back in 24 hrs. :bang:

Well not too bad today on the Aqu Inner
out of 3 races 2 were won by 2nd bet choices

3rd-5th race p3
Fav won 3rd and the other 2
were won by 2nd bet choices at 2 turns
paid $70+. Not shabby

as of Jan 1st
in 27 races at 2 turns
10 winning favs
12 winning second choices
81% clip

Dominguez had 3
and Cohen 2
Davis struck again and paid $21+ in the opener

The trend marches on

[misscashalot]

as of Jan 1st
in 27 races at 2 turns
10 winning favs
12 winning second choices
81% clip


The trend marches on

The trend remains our friend
Friday the 13th not withstanding

4 at 2 turns
2 favs and 2 second choices prevailed

26/31 84%

[misscashalot]

The trend remains our friend
Friday the 13th not withstanding

4 at 2 turns
2 favs and 2 second choices prevailed

26/31 84%

Today 3 at 2 turns

One winning fav and
1 winning 2nd bet choice

28/34

[misscashalot]

Today 3 at 2 turns

One winning fav and
1 winning 2nd bet choice

28/34

Sunday
5 at 2 turns today
2 favs winning
1 second choice

31/39 79%

-------------

At 1 turn this year
40/59 68%

Tomorrow, Monday, is a rare racing day at Aqu with only two at 2 turns

[misscashalot]

Sunday
5 at 2 turns today
2 favs winning
1 second choice

31/39 79%


Monday 2 turns were 0/2

31/41 76%

[misscashalot]

Monday 2 turns were 0/2

31/41 76%

Thursday

5 at 2 turns

2 winning fav and
1 winning second choice

34/46 74%

[misscashalot]

Thursday

5 at 2 turns

2 winning fav and
1 winning second choice

34/46 74%

Friday

5 at 2 Turns

2 Winning fav and
2 winning second choice

38/51 75%

[misscashalot]

Friday

5 at 2 Turns

2 Winning fav and
2 winning second choice

38/51 75%

Sunday Winning bet rank by race
2-1-1-2-1-1-1-2-1

3 at 2 turns
1winning fav and
2 winning second choice

41/54 76%

anyone making $ with this info?

[Tom]

Yes.

Playing Tampa Bay.

[Rise Over Run]

Here's a tip, Don't bet on any of the Juan Carlos Guerrero horses... Taking a ton of cash and running up the track on a routine basis. It will be interesting to see what David Jacobsen does with his claim of Roman Renegrade for $7.5k from today's 4th.

[misscashalot]

Yes.

Playing Tampa Bay.

Hhhmmm I guess you don't like chalk

How ya doing at Tampa? Got any clues for me?

[misscashalot]

Here's a tip, Don't bet on any of the Juan Carlos Guerrero horses... Taking a ton of cash and running up the track on a routine basis. It will be interesting to see what David Jacobsen does with his claim of Roman Renegrade for $7.5k from today's 4th.


I dont know how many JCG saddled since July, but he has zero wins at the NYRA, so he's a non-factor

Jacobson does OK and telegraphs his intention at the board, Since the start of Saratoga he has 37 wins in New York. 17 Favorites and 14 second bet choice winners. 84%. Cohen on 29 of his winners. He is a $ maker for me. About his claim success I don't know or have an opinion. Anyone here have formy stats on that?

[Rise Over Run]

I can't remember him shipping any horses to NY last year before he got the boot from Parx. Of course, when you're hitting at ~40% at your home base, why bother... :confused: Since mid December, he's run quite a few horses at Aqu, probably on the order of 2-3 runners per week. And I may have missed one or two races, but I believe JCG has owned or co-owned each of his NY starters. His runners all took a lot of money and looked highly competitive based on their Parx running lines, and all of them failed to deliver, many of which weren't even close.

I brought up the Jacobson claim from today because claiming from JCG hasn't been to good for anyone at Parx. Roman Renegrade was a solid Allowance horse for JCG most of 2011 and was dumped today for $7.5k. It's gonna be interesting to see what he does with her.

[misscashalot]

Sunday Winning bet rank by race
2-1-1-2-1-1-1-2-1

3 at 2 turns
1winning fav and
2 winning second choice

41/54 76%


Wednesday
5 at 2 turns

2 winning fav and
2 winning second choice

45/59
76%

[misscashalot]

Wednesday
5 at 2 turns

2 winning fav and
2 winning second choice

45/59
76%

Thursday

2 at 2 turns

1 winning fav

46/61
75%

[misscashalot]

Thursday

2 at 2 turns

1 winning fav

46/61
75%

Friday
3 at 2 turns

1 inning fav and
2 winning second choice

49/64
77%

Betting fav and second bet choice to win
every 2 Turn race since Jan 1 produced a +11% roi

and produced a -13% roi at 1 Turn

[misscashalot]

Friday
3 at 2 turns

1 inning fav and
2 winning second choice

49/64
77%

Betting fav and second bet choice to win
every 2 Turn race since Jan 1 produced a +11% roi

and produced a -13% roi at 1 Turn

Saturday

6 at 2 turns

2 winning fav and
4 winning second choice

55/70 79%

I won't be continuing this thread anymore but
you should be getting the picture by now.

I have had several emails asking what I do.
Here's the answer:

It comes down to this. If you know how to use an
excel or any other other dB/spreadsheet you you can
do as I do. I enter data manually, and thus can pick
and chose the important data that works
for me. Experience will teach you what works for you.
What you should do is use entry info available
thru bris or the tracks, and charts. I haven't purchased
a form in years. I message the data I collect and combine
those, which seems disparate, but actually is not, that
provide a profitable profile, and thus a current trend.
The LEAST amount of data used to find a trend is what
you're looking for. NOT more data. Data from different
tracks/meets are misleading when combined. A short
term trend works well. This 2 turn trend will not last,
but has provided me with quite a profit.
This approach may be foreign to you
but it's what I do well.