CLASS TELLS THE TALE

[rayfox]

CLASS TELLS THE TALE

How many times have you heard a speed favoring handicapper say "class is speed and speed is class"? I hear it quite often and it always brings a smile to my face. The fact is that class is speed but speed is not class. Occasionally a good horse will rise out of lesser grade races because he has always had good speed. Truth of the matter is the horse was not yet properly placed in the correct level of competition. Case in Point, and it is as common as the sun rising out of the East every morning. A $10K claimer wins his most recent race in a blistering 1:09 flat. The trainer, for the horse’s next race moves the horse up in class to a $20K claiming race. The race is subsequently won in a slower 1:10 flat. And where do we find the $10K claimer? He finishes up the track a badly beaten 5th. I am assuming the exact same track conditions for the two races I am comparing.

Class is something you can’t see in a horse but you had better believe it’s there. What is the reason the cheaper horse couldn’t compete in the better race even though he had a much faster previous race than any of the current competitors? It’s the pace of a race. When the $20K horse was running on the lead he had yet to run as fast as he was capable. In the meantime, the $10K horse was all out to keep pace with the classier horse. When the real running began the cheaper horse had little left in him for the stretch. If you doubt what I have said, pick up the Daily Racing Form and look at the races where a horse ran an exceptionally fast race and was moved up in class. You’ll be a little surprised at what you find. Tactical speed and cheap speed are night and day. Pace does make the race andclass does tell the tale
Ray Fox

[thaskalos]

Yes...but I have noticed something as well...and "pace" doesn't seem to explain it very well.

That $10,000 horse -- who won in 1:09 flat while running in it's "own" group, but lost badly when raised to $20,000 eventhough that race was run in 1:10?

Chances are that the horse faced a SLOWER pace in the $20,000 1:10 flat race than he did in the 1:09 $10,000 race...and yet, he was STILL soundly defeated.

How do we explain that?

[Robert Fischer]

Yes...but I have noticed something as well...and "pace" doesn't seem to explain it very well.

That $10,000 horse -- who won in 1:09 flat while running in it's "own" group, but lost badly when raised to $20,000 eventhough that race was run in 1:10?

Chances are that the horse faced a SLOWER pace in the $20,000 1:10 flat race than he did in the 1:09 $10,000 race...and yet, he was STILL soundly defeated.

How do we explain that?

some horses don't have what it takes

the dollar sign stresses them out

[jerry-g]

I could be wrong about this but I believe that horses that win their last race and then step up one class level have a better chance than one that wins and goes up two levels. If he's gong up two levels, it says to me that the trainer is placing him for conditioning only and then will drop him back to the proper place for a win after today's race.

[Robert Fischer]

lets do both examples with pace


10k win @ 1:09 , 20k loss @ 1:10



SLOW (10k was slower paced, 20k was fast early to fry "cheap speed")
Cool... In this scenario it means that closers are "classier". In fact a closing winner from that 10k "class" would dominate if he catches this 20k field next out. - Not only does the speed duel not affect him, it causes the speed horses to run a full second slower!!!:bang:

FAST (10k was faster paced, 20k very slow early and fast late)
OK... The problem here is that the 10k horse(and/or possibly some of the 20k horses) would have won the race with a better ride. Either the jockey(s) made a bad error, or we are talking about a rare herd running horse who stepped up from 10k but will not run out freely in the lead against these slow paced 20k horses. So in this case class is a jockey or a willingness to leave the herd. :bang:

[classhandicapper]

Yes...but I have noticed something as well...and "pace" doesn't seem to explain it very well.

That $10,000 horse -- who won in 1:09 flat while running in it's "own" group, but lost badly when raised to $20,000 eventhough that race was run in 1:10?

Chances are that the horse faced a SLOWER pace in the $20,000 1:10 flat race than he did in the 1:09 $10,000 race...and yet, he was STILL soundly defeated.

How do we explain that?

I think it's often between call acceleration and stamina reserves.

Higher quality speed horses are quicker out of the gate and can accelerate just a little faster early (if required) to establish the position they want. Then once they settle in, they can slow the pace down with the cheaper horse behind them. If the cheaper horse tries to go with them on a sustained basis, they will accelerate again and torch him first because they also have more stamina in reserve for the battle. They may also kill themselves doing it, but the horses are often not alike even when the fractions and final times are similar.

[thaskalos]

I think it's often between call acceleration and stamina reserves.

Higher quality speed horses are quicker out of the gate and can accelerate just a little faster early to establish the position they want. Then once they settle in, the pace slows down with the cheaper horse behind them. If the cheaper horse tries to go with them on a sustained basis, they will accelerate again and torch him. They may also kill themselves doing it, but the horses are not alike even when the fractions are similar and final times are similar.
Classhandicapper,

I like what you write here, and this is what I have been telling myself for years now...but I remain unconvinced.

I think that there is an element to "class" that cannot be understood by conventional means...

[classhandicapper]

Classhandicapper,

I like what you write here, and this is what I have been telling myself for years now...but I remain unconvinced.

I think that there is an element to "class" that cannot be understood by conventional means...

I won't dismiss that possibility, but you can often see what I am talking about even though we can't measure those between call challenges and activities currently.

[davew]

high class horses have the ability to accelerate on jockey demand

it is more than 'whats left in the tank' at the top of the stretch


think of it like driving down a 2 lane road and coming up to a slower vehicle,
there is traffic coming in the other lane, you see a clearing so decide to pass

would you rather be in a HUGO or a Porsche
and can you feel the difference when you floor it?


high class laughs at cheap speed

[thaskalos]

high class horses have the ability to accelerate on jockey demand

it is more than 'whats left in the tank' at the top of the stretch


think of it like driving down a 2 lane road and coming up to a slower vehicle,
there is traffic coming in the other lane, you see a clearing so decide to pass

would you rather be in a HUGO or a Porsche
and can you feel the difference when you floor it?


high class laughs at cheap speed
Yeah...but we are not comparing Hugos to Porsches here...

In some cases, a horse triumphs -- in fast time -- in a $10,000 race...only to fail miserably when raised to a $12,500 race next out.

And, when dropped back to $10,000...he wins decisively again!

[PhantomOnTour]

It's a Yugo, not a Hugo
Carry on

[gm10]

It's a Yugo, not a Hugo.
Carry on
:D I did wonder about what a Hugo was. My first thoughts were a deceased French king .

[Dave Schwartz]

I did wonder about what a Hugo was. My first thoughts were a deceased French king .

Oh, you mean the "nots?"

:lol:

[RXB]

[b]CLASS TELLS THE TALE
Class is something you can’t see in a horse but you had better believe it’s there. What is the reason the cheaper horse couldn’t compete in the better race even though he had a much faster previous race than any of the current competitors? It’s the pace of a race. When the $20K horse was running on the lead he had yet to run as fast as he was capable. In the meantime, the $10K horse was all out to keep pace with the classier horse.

As you go up the class ladder, and compare the differences in par fractional velocities, it's actually the later part of the race that contains the greatest difference, not the early part. Classy horses separate themselves from less classy horses more by late power than by early pace. Obviously a horse will fade if the early pace is too fast for it, but if a cheaper frontrunner goes into a race where the competition is too classy he'll be swamped late even if the early pace isn't too fast.

[Kelley]

This is a good topic. I'm wresting with class on turf vs dirt. Eg, you're handicapping a turf route. One entry has won at this level or one level above, same distance, but on dirt. Assume no previous turf experience and an average turf pedigree. Does this class transfer to the turf?

[JohnGalt1]

Back in the early 1990's a horse named Timeless Prince was consistently winning allowances and stakes races at Canterbury.

I went to the track one Saturday where he was entered in an allowance race. Timeless just won in 1:12.0, (He usually ran his sprints 1:110 to 1:12.0) but another horse had just won a claiming race in 1:10.2.

I was confident Timeless couldn't bet a horse that much faster.

Timeless ran a 1:10.4 and beat the (faster) (cheaper) horse by 2 lengths. His class forced him to go as fast as he needed to win.

[RaceBookJoe]

I think it's often between call acceleration and stamina reserves.

Higher quality speed horses are quicker out of the gate and can accelerate just a little faster early (if required) to establish the position they want. Then once they settle in, they can slow the pace down with the cheaper horse behind them. If the cheaper horse tries to go with them on a sustained basis, they will accelerate again and torch him first because they also have more stamina in reserve for the battle. They may also kill themselves doing it, but the horses are often not alike even when the fractions and final times are similar.

That is how i have always felt about the subject also. rbj

[windoor]

I have gone as far at to make my own class look-up table in Excel.

It is still far from being complete and I am constantly adjusting the numbers, but is has proven to be quite useful when looking for contenders.

I believe there are also times when you example 10K horse that is moving up was not beaten because the winner out classed him, but rather another horse entered in the race did.

This "other" horse my have finished off the board, but still in front of your 10K horse.

The same 10K horse entered again at this level, even against the horse that won last time, may very well win today because the horse that "bothered" him is not there today.

Regards,

Windoor

[benzer]

I have gone as far at to make my own class look-up table in Excel.

It is still far from being complete and I am constantly adjusting the numbers, but is has proven to be quite useful when looking for contenders.

I believe there are also times when you example 10K horse that is moving up was not beaten because the winner out classed him, but rather another horse entered in the race did.

This "other" horse my have finished off the board, but still in front of your 10K horse.

The same 10K horse entered again at this level, even against the horse that won last time, may very well win today because the horse that "bothered" him is not there today.

Regards,

Windoor

Can you show a example? I'm not wanting secrets, just wondering.

[so.cal.fan]

I've always believed that class is the ability to carry it's speed over the distance of ground nature intended it to.

[keilan]

thaskalos, classhandicapper et al

I’ve defined class as combination of three attributes (speed-stamina & heart).

If I were to give an example of “class” I'd explain it this way – if Mark Messier was chasing after a loose puck and so was another opposing player who had equal or slightly faster acceleration who gets to the puck first? When the chips are down Mark gets to the puck first everytime…….. that’s my best example of “class”.

Every Canadian kid that played hockey understands that, the equivalent for an American kid might be better understood using an analogy from another sport??

[Robert Goren]

Horse racing is not about final time par se. It is about how fast a horse can run when the real running begins, when the jockey cracks his whip to signal to the horse it is time to go.

[BlueShoe]

Am going against the general consensus here, but I just love runners coming off of impressive wins and stepping way up in class. Of course we must do more analysis before jumping in. Taking our 10k guy in the OP, say he caught a paceless field, set soft fractions while enroute to a wire to wire win. Today in the 20k are several that want the early lead including a couple of droppers from 25k-32k. Out he goes. But lets say that our guy was on the outside of a 3 way pace duel with early splits much swifter than par for the level, puts the other speed away, and then draws out for his fast, easy win. In today's 20k are mostly stalker/pressers, with no other need to lead types. If this horse comes back quickly he is going to be a best bet type play for me. By quickly, the sooner the better, no more than 3 weeks away, within 2 weeks better still, and, if coming back in 7 days or less the rubber band comes off of the bankroll. Rare but very good. One other thing might kill this type of play for me, and that is an older horse that in it's win posted a speed figure much faster than anything showing in the recent pp's, indicating that a regression could be next. If an 8 year old gelding's Beyer was 15 or 20 points higher than anything showing, would stay away. However, if a swift, easy winner come back quickly and passes tough scrutiny, am going to be aboard, I just love these jumpers.

[thaskalos]

thaskalos, classhandicapper et al

I’ve defined class as combination of three attributes (speed-stamina & heart).

If I were to give an example of “class” I'd explain it this way – if Mark Messier was chasing after a loose puck and so was another opposing player who had equal or slightly faster acceleration who gets to the puck first? When the chips are down Mark gets to the puck first everytime…….. that’s my best example of “class”.

Every Canadian kid that played hockey understands that, the equivalent for an American kid might be better understood using an analogy from another sport??

I agree.."heart" has a lot to do with it.

But you can't measure heart with "numbers"...

That was the point I was trying to make...

[Greyfox]

I think that there is an element to "class" that cannot be understood by conventional means...

:ThmbUp: Agreed. It can't be measured on time alone. I refer to it as "Heart."

[pandy]

The reason why some horses run a huge number then move up in class and can't duplicate it is Pressure. I guess you could call it pace pressure but it's not necessarily evident in the actual fractions of the race. It's in the "bunching" of horses. For example, a common scenario, a horse drops from an allowance to a n2l claimer, let's say a $20,000 claiming race for non winners of 2 wins. The horse goes out to the lead with another horse and they pull away from the rest of the field, then the horse puts that one away, opens up and wins in 1:09.3, taking a Beyer of 95.

The next start the owners put the horse back in an allowance race, the fractions and final time are indentical, but the horse finishes off the board and runs a Beyer of 85. What was the difference? Bunching. In the NW3 allowance field, once again the horse goes out for the lead and one other pace rival goes with it. But, this time right behind them there are four other horses bunched together chasing the pace in close proximity. In other words, the field is more tightly bunched. This creates a tremendous amount of pressure.

Believe me, I ran track in high school and when I ran against the tougher teams it was much more difficult to run to my fastest personal time. This was mainly due to the fact that the better teams had several competitive (fast) runners so while I was running there were runners all around me. Against the weaker squads, I would either be running on my own, or perhaps with one other runner of similar talents. It is much, much, much tougher to run in a field of runners that are more closely bunched.

The fractions and final time don't always reflect this, which is the reason why class is tough to analyze, but that is what it is. Simply speaking, the higher class fields have more contenders, are more competitive, and therefore there is more pressure because the horses are more closely bunched.

[Greyfox]

Let me add another factor besides "Heart" that may play a role.

Many handicappers believe the "speed is class and class is speed" mentioned in the first post on this thread. I think Andy Beyer strongly promoted that idea.

The fact is we don't know much about the social interactions between horses.
46Zil who used to post on this board used to claim that horses entered into a race do not have time to form any social heirachies. (Then he'd quote noted horse watchers Desmond Morris and others.) He believed that they just react to the bell and run like hell as far and as fast as they can.

I beg to differ on that view . Horses are very smart animals. They are able to size one another up in seconds.
I'm also postulating that select horses have a "Royalty" or "Alpha" factor that other horses instinctively recognize when they see it.
Thus at whatever point in the race, where the King or Queen of the herd wants to contend for the lead, if at all, Jacks , Knaves, and Jesters will yield to that runner. It's "as if" they won't perform to their normal high standards when Royalty is around.

Of course G1 level races might draw several of those true blue bloods and the potential for a highly contentious race may be probable.
That does not mean that these true Royal Highnesses will win with lower class company every time. When they are coming off a layoff and are entered in an Allowance race the trainer may be sending them just for a tune up.

Now scoff if you wish, or say Humbug, but I believe select animals have a Royalty or Alpha factor that sets them aside.
It can be particularly noticeable if they are the only Royal steed on the grounds at a B track or lesser oval.
I've seen races at B ovals where several entrants have ran faster pace and final times than an Alpha Female. Yet when the race went, this mare strolled to the front at a pedestrian pace and the others just fell in line and refused to challenge her.

[Robert Fischer]

nice post.

To be honest I don't look for this per se, but I do note whether a free-running type of horse has an effortless trip, or if that runner has a "rougher" trip.

The reason why some horses run a huge number then move up in class and can't duplicate it is Pressure. I guess you could call it pace pressure but it's not necessarily evident in the actual fractions of the race. It's in the "bunching" of horses. For example, a common scenario, a horse drops from an allowance to a n2l claimer, let's say a $20,000 claiming race for non winners of 2 wins. The horse goes out to the lead with another horse and they pull away from the rest of the field, then the horse puts that one away, opens up and wins in 1:09.3, taking a Beyer of 95.

The next start the owners put the horse back in an allowance race, the fractions and final time are indentical, but the horse finishes off the board and runs a Beyer of 85. What was the difference? Bunching. In the NW3 allowance field, once again the horse goes out for the lead and one other pace rival goes with it. But, this time right behind them there are four other horses bunched together chasing the pace in close proximity. In other words, the field is more tightly bunched. This creates a tremendous amount of pressure.

Believe me, I ran track in high school and when I ran against the tougher teams it was much more difficult to run to my fastest personal time. This was mainly due to the fact that the better teams had several competitive (fast) runners so while I was running there were runners all around me. Against the weaker squads, I would either be running on my own, or perhaps with one other runner of similar talents. It is much, much, much tougher to run in a field of runners that are more closely bunched.

The fractions and final time don't always reflect this, which is the reason why class is tough to analyze, but that is what it is. Simply speaking, the higher class fields have more contenders, are more competitive, and therefore there is more pressure because the horses are more closely bunched.

[pondman]

What is the reason the cheaper horse couldn’t compete in the better race even though he had a much faster previous race than any of the current competitors?

Horses suprise trainers as well with a stellar performance. And at that point they'll try and run for more money, which usually brings out stronger competitors.

Usually the cheap claimer with a high speed rating gets the lead and beats the field by several lengths. Unfortunately when entered at a higher price, they have more problems getting the lead, and they have traffic problems, and are sometime force running in an unfamiliar way.

The top riders will try and control the pace with strategy. They'll sandbag and toy with the field if they've got the best horse. They might sit off the lead waiting to pass tired horses. And they play the game well by positioning the horse to hold off other horses in the lane. For example many horses won't split through the middle of horses, they've got to go around. The top jockeys have the experience and know how to suck an inexperience rider onto a dead rail or into a wedge. All of these things make speed ratings unreliable.

[pondman]

I beg to differ on that view . Horses are very smart animals. They are able to size one another up in seconds.

My main focus of study is shippers. I believe horses do better if they are shipped with their friends and acclimatize with their friends. Horses which are shipped for the day have a much lower % of wins compared to those given time to adjust. Even the blue bloods will travel with friends, including familiar staff, barn mates, and sometimes other animals such as goats. Changes will impact their performance.

There is a social order to horses. Some horse will always want to be leaders. Other horse will always want to be followers. Come ride my horses and you'll find there is a big order to riding a trail or there will be absolute mahem. I have a mare that had several wins at SA, that will not walk behind anything. And I have a pack mule which will never lead, it's will not move unless it's following.

[stuball]

a horse that wins a 10 clmr is a 10 k horse....and let's face it a 10 k clmr
is more inconsistent than say a 20 k clmr...so the chances that he will repeat
his performance are much less along with the other factors that could come into
play. Now if it truly a rise in class it is much harder to repeat that winning performance...but being a 10k clmr in a higher class race makes it a much riskier
bet...and not worth the investment unless trainer has shown he can pull this
manuever before multiple times...some can --- some can't

my two cents (for what it's worth)

Stuball

[Greyfox]

a horse that wins a 10 clmr is a 10 k horse....and let's face it a 10 k clmr
is more inconsistent than say a 20 k clmr...so the chances that he will repeat
his performance are much less along with the other factors that could come into
play. Now if it truly a rise in class it is much harder to repeat that winning performance...but being a 10k clmr in a higher class race makes it a much riskier
bet...and not worth the investment unless trainer has shown he can pull this
manuever before multiple times...some can --- some can't

my two cents (for what it's worth)

Stuball

Mike Mitchell in Southern California can and does that maneuver well.

[keilan]

Speed is measurable
Stamina is measurable
Heart is intangible but can be defined sometimes by clichés
1) impose their will
2) refuse to lose
3) Who is willing to hurt more when muscles are strained and lungs are screaming for air
4) Intimidation (body language, eyes etc)
5) Alpha
6) Mind set of “eat or be eaten”

My daughter raced for a number of years and we spent many hundreds of hours discussing physiological warfare, positioning, when to apply pressure within a race, and when to take control of a race. At the time she left the sport she was ranked number 1 or 2 in the country………

There is always someone faster but the trick is how to beat faster opponents – it’s done all the time!

The great race horses of yester years all had those characteristics – it’s how they are wired!

[VastinMT]

It's a Yugo, not a Hugo
Carry on

I thought they were just trying to get to a movie.

[windoor]

Can you show a example? I'm not wanting secrets, just wondering.

I have never kept records on this phenomenon, but have observed it many times over the years.

It is really just a theory based on these observations and my belief that class is a moving target, and each individual horse has it's own level of it that can fluctuate based on current form and those that are in the current herd. IE: Today's race.


Regards,

Windoor