Thaskalos'..."Betting Rules To Live By"

[thaskalos]

These are some betting/discipline rules that I enforce in my own play.

Some of them are obvious, and some may not be; I swear by all of them...and they have made a big difference in my play.

I pass them on to you, hoping that they may be of some use...and -- if you are so inclined -- I would ask that you add some of your own...


1.) LEARN TO PASS RACES...LOTS OF THEM.
Most races don't deserve to be played. If you spot overlays in almost every race you see...then you are playing this game wrong.

2.) BECOME A SPECIALIST.
The best thing about full-card simulcasting is that we can bet on our favorite types of races...and still get all the action we can handle.

3.) DON'T KEEP SCORE BY THE DAY.
Even the best horseplayers have more losing days than winning ones. Don't make a bad day worse by trying to get even.

4.) DISCIPLINE...DISCIPLINE...DISCIPLINE.
Lack of discipline has kept some of the brightest handicappers in this game BROKE...for MANY years. At the end of the day's play ask yourself THIS question:

"Did I do exactly what I planned to do today...or did I let my emotions affect my play?"

If you didn't keep to your gameplan, then the day was a FAILURE...even if you won.

5.) IF YOU TAKE BETTING SERIOUSLY...GAMBLE ALONE.
Tom Ainslie said it best:

"Winning horseplaying is a solitary activity; the more social it gets, the less profitable it becomes."

Pittsburg Phil never bet a dime when he had friends accompany him at the track.

If you consider yourself to be a better player than Tom Ainslie and Pittsburg Phil...then feel free to disregard this advice.

6.) SET A PREDETERMINED LIMIT TO THE AMOUNT YOU ARE WILLING TO LOSE IN ANY ONE RACE...AND STICK TO IT.
Don't get into the habit of "loading up" on the "sure things". The name of the game is limiting your risk. It sounds easy...but it took me 20 years to learn.

7.) KEEP A BETTING DIARY.
Not only to record your plays, but also to write down any thoughts or opinions about your play during the course of the day.

Our memory is not to be trusted.

8.) AVOID TURF PARADISE LIKE THE PLAGUE.
Trust me on this one...:)

[mannyberrios]

Good stuff. Thanks

[Casino]

"When trying to get even...you get even worse"
When your chasing shut it down.

[Capper Al]

Good stuff, especially number one- learn to pass. The way I see it now is that one has to wait for the odds to come to them to play.

Another one I had to learn the hard way is that after one wins you are still playing with your own money not the tracks. There seems to be a feeling when ahead that we can do anything we want because we have the track's money. Make no mistake about it, it's your money.

[ten2oneormore]

Don't Take Winning For Granted
You became successful by putting in a lot of work handicapping.After a while you start to use shortcuts and think you have the race figured out with a glance or two .Then you start losing,second guessing yourself , and fall into a slump that takes time to get your confidence back.

[lamboguy]

everything is correct. just 2 things, as far as turf paradise goes there are only about 5 trainers in the place that can win, trainers charge their owners $50 per day to train their horses, and the purses stink. i play the place but very limited, something like 2 or 3 races per week.

as far as bet size goes, i subscribe to that theory, but i don't practice it at times. the few times that i play major tracks, new york, kentucky, gulfstream, arlington park, i base my bets by how much money are in the pools. if i happen to be betting a maiden race in churhill on oaks day i will bet more on it than on a regular wed. afternoon. i try to keep those bets under 1/4 of 1% that will be in those pools. within the course of a year i might make about 25 of those bets. when i am guessing i keep my bet size below $50 per event and more often than not around $25.

[jerry-g]

Really neat and helpful stuff here. Especially for a learner like myself. With your permission...I would like to add....Bet your selections by horse name and not post or saddle cloth as these can be different.

[Tom]

Bet with your head, not over it.
-----OTB

[jfdinneen]

Ask Bill Benter's question of fundamental handicapping: what additional variables (if any) explain a significant proportion of the variance in results to date that is not already accounted for by the public odds (Wisdom of Crowds)? By keeping records, it is possible to determine whether or not you have been successful over time in so doing. However, it is not possible to know (in advance) if you have an overlay in an upcoming event. This is the fundamental flaw of handicapping and, eo ipso, the flaw of fundamental handicapping.
If you do not have access to any additional variables you will most likely lose your bankroll

John

[Greyfox]

.I would like to add...Bet your selections by horse name and not post or saddle cloth as these can be different.

Huh? If I ask for a ticket by the horse's name, the teller will think I'm nuts.:rolleyes:

[horses4courses]

Nice reference to the biggest joke of a track there is - for bettors, anyway.

For those who are not aware already, Turf Paradise has the highest betting takeout rates across the wagering spectrum of any track in the country.

The biggest slap in the face to bettors is an outrageous WPS takeout exceeding 20%. They are the only track to rise above the 20% threshold for the most basic form of horse race betting. The best response that horse players can make to such "daylight robbery", is to keep your cash in your pocket, or bet it elsewhere under more favorable terms.

Apart from a token 15% PK5 wager, Turf Paradise fleeces bettors with high takeout in every wager they offer. They deserve to be boycotted.
Even if you can pick winners there at a reasonable rate, that takeout will eventually eat you alive.

Here's a list of track's takeout rates from the HANA website:
http://www.horseplayersassociation.org/hanatrackratingsbyoverallscore2011.html

Be successful in 2012 - start by making wagers where the takeouts are fair.
Good luck!

[pondman]

Agree with 1,2,3,4,7...

5.) IF YOU TAKE BETTING SERIOUSLY...GAMBLE ALONE.


Keep in mind the largest pick 6 payout in the history of California went to a team of retired math teachers. If it's a complex problem, it may pay to play as a team.


6.) SET A PREDETERMINED LIMIT TO THE AMOUNT YOU ARE WILLING TO LOSE IN ANY ONE RACE...AND STICK TO IT.


The biggest mistake I see is not betting consistent. $100 on a 2-1 shot and $5 on a 15-1.The favorite will lose and the longshot will win, but they're down $20 dollars. IMHO a person should keep it similiar to a slot pull. Only you sit out until you know the machine is rigged in your favor. Play the same amount of money...overtime...within your range of comfort.


8.) AVOID TURF PARADISE LIKE THE PLAGUE.
Trust me on this one...:)

No way. I've been playing shippers into TP for awhile. It's as lucrative as any, except the play isn't as large.

[Robert Goren]

Huh? If I ask for a ticket by the horse's name, the teller will think I'm nuts.:rolleyes:and you would probably get the wrong number.

[jerry-g]

Thanks HorsesForCourses! I wuz planning on betting TP this evening, race 9. I thought the #3, Deep Credentials at 15-1 morning line was good to hit the board. Now I don't think I need to be dealing with the kind of folks you describe at Turf Paradise. I really don't need the win either as I can do just as well at other more reliable tracks. I will however, out of curiosity, watch the race to see if I'm right. Nothing more. I have suspected in the past that the track may be manipulating the M/L odds to sucker us in. So in that race this evening, I will be wearing my learners cap and not my betting one.

[speculus]

These are some betting/discipline rules that I enforce in my own play.

Some of them are obvious, and some may not be; I swear by all of them...and they have made a big difference in my play.

I pass them on to you, hoping that they may be of some use...and -- if you are so inclined -- I would ask that you add some of your own...


1.) LEARN TO PASS RACES...LOTS OF THEM.
Most races don't deserve to be played. If you spot overlays in almost every race you see...then you are playing this game wrong.

2.) BECOME A SPECIALIST.
The best thing about full-card simulcasting is that we can bet on our favorite types of races...and still get all the action we can handle.

3.) DON'T KEEP SCORE BY THE DAY.
Even the best horseplayers have more losing days than winning ones. Don't make a bad day worse by trying to get even.

4.) DISCIPLINE...DISCIPLINE...DISCIPLINE.
Lack of discipline has kept some of the brightest handicappers in this game BROKE...for MANY years. At the end of the day's play ask yourself THIS question:

"Did I do exactly what I planned to do today...or did I let my emotions affect my play?"

If you didn't keep to your gameplan, then the day was a FAILURE...even if you won.

5.) IF YOU TAKE BETTING SERIOUSLY...GAMBLE ALONE.
Tom Ainslie said it best:

"Winning horseplaying is a solitary activity; the more social it gets, the less profitable it becomes."

Pittsburg Phil never bet a dime when he had friends accompany him at the track.

If you consider yourself to be a better player than Tom Ainslie and Pittsburg Phil...then feel free to disregard this advice.

6.) SET A PREDETERMINED LIMIT TO THE AMOUNT YOU ARE WILLING TO LOSE IN ANY ONE RACE...AND STICK TO IT.
Don't get into the habit of "loading up" on the "sure things". The name of the game is limiting your risk. It sounds easy...but it took me 20 years to learn.

7.) KEEP A BETTING DIARY.
Not only to record your plays, but also to write down any thoughts or opinions about your play during the course of the day.

Our memory is not to be trusted.

8.) AVOID TURF PARADISE LIKE THE PLAGUE.
Trust me on this one...:)

I also try to live by rules.

Only, in my case, there are too many (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=756651&postcount=34):p

[Dave Schwartz]

In my world of horse play, the rule set is known as The Document. That is the set of rules that I play by.

It is precise enough so that, once explained and understood, my wife can play my picks for me.


Dave Schwartz

[jerry-g]

I believe in #7, Keep A Betting Diary. It has to be next to godliness in handicapping. Steven Davidowitz in his book, "Betting Thoroughbreds", said that if he believes a horse has a 50% chance of winning, then he expects to be right 50% of the time. By keeping records, he will know if he is close to his goal. Some of his 50% horses have the following: "Clear cut front-running types who seem likely to get to the rail on a severely biased, inside speed-favoring track will win at least 50%, as will horses in paceless fields who figure to get uncontested leads for the first time. Jack Van Berg repeaters going up in class; fit Allen Jerkens-trained horses right back or stretching out in distance; Charlie Whittingham - trained Grade 1 horses with four or more weeks of impressive workouts; Billy Mott and Ron McAnally shippers and repeaters in Grade 1 and 2 stakes; Robert Frankel's imported turf runners dropping into high-class Allowance races; Jerry Hollendorfer's first time starters with slow six-furlong works in Northern California; and Richard Matlow's first timers in southern California generally win about 50% of the time with very little handicapping."

[Midnight Cruiser]

Is there such a thing as a Jack Van Berg repeater? Just kidding....

[pondman]

I have suspected in the past that the track may be manipulating the M/L odds to sucker us in. So in that race this evening, I will be wearing my learners cap and not my betting one.

Advantage includes the takeout (and income taxes) in your calculation. I don't care what your form of gambling; If you've got an advantage-- it's an advantage. You might only hit a progressive black jack once a month, but if the advantage, including the progressive pot, is only %1 you'd be wise to play with a perfect strategy (if you've got the time.)

If your horse has a greater than 6.2% chance of winning at 15-1, I would ignore the takeout. Because overtime you'll be ahead. Not advocating betting this individual horse, but if you where to believe it's got a high % of winning, say 40%, I wouldn't pass on it. It's simply an issue of the reward outweighing the risk.

[gm10]

All true, except "Gamble Alone" which is very true and "Avoid Turf Paradise like the plague" which sounds a bit harsh to what is ultimately a decent track!!


These are some betting/discipline rules that I enforce in my own play.

Some of them are obvious, and some may not be; I swear by all of them...and they have made a big difference in my play.

I pass them on to you, hoping that they may be of some use...and -- if you are so inclined -- I would ask that you add some of your own...


1.) LEARN TO PASS RACES...LOTS OF THEM.
Most races don't deserve to be played. If you spot overlays in almost every race you see...then you are playing this game wrong.

2.) BECOME A SPECIALIST.
The best thing about full-card simulcasting is that we can bet on our favorite types of races...and still get all the action we can handle.

3.) DON'T KEEP SCORE BY THE DAY.
Even the best horseplayers have more losing days than winning ones. Don't make a bad day worse by trying to get even.

4.) DISCIPLINE...DISCIPLINE...DISCIPLINE.
Lack of discipline has kept some of the brightest handicappers in this game BROKE...for MANY years. At the end of the day's play ask yourself THIS question:

"Did I do exactly what I planned to do today...or did I let my emotions affect my play?"

If you didn't keep to your gameplan, then the day was a FAILURE...even if you won.

5.) IF YOU TAKE BETTING SERIOUSLY...GAMBLE ALONE.
Tom Ainslie said it best:

"Winning horseplaying is a solitary activity; the more social it gets, the less profitable it becomes."

Pittsburg Phil never bet a dime when he had friends accompany him at the track.

If you consider yourself to be a better player than Tom Ainslie and Pittsburg Phil...then feel free to disregard this advice.

6.) SET A PREDETERMINED LIMIT TO THE AMOUNT YOU ARE WILLING TO LOSE IN ANY ONE RACE...AND STICK TO IT.
Don't get into the habit of "loading up" on the "sure things". The name of the game is limiting your risk. It sounds easy...but it took me 20 years to learn.

7.) KEEP A BETTING DIARY.
Not only to record your plays, but also to write down any thoughts or opinions about your play during the course of the day.

Our memory is not to be trusted.

8.) AVOID TURF PARADISE LIKE THE PLAGUE.
Trust me on this one...:)

[Robert Fischer]

Ask Bill Benter's question of fundamental handicapping: what additional variables (if any) explain a significant proportion of the variance in results to date that is not already accounted for by the public odds (Wisdom of Crowds)?...

Competitively unique activities are the essence of strategy. :cool:

[cosmicway]

These are some betting/discipline rules that I enforce in my own play.

Some of them are obvious, and some may not be; I swear by all of them...and they have made a big difference in my play.

I pass them on to you, hoping that they may be of some use...and -- if you are so inclined -- I would ask that you add some of your own...


1.) LEARN TO PASS RACES...LOTS OF THEM.
Most races don't deserve to be played. If you spot overlays in almost every race you see...then you are playing this game wrong.

2.) BECOME A SPECIALIST.
The best thing about full-card simulcasting is that we can bet on our favorite types of races...and still get all the action we can handle.

3.) DON'T KEEP SCORE BY THE DAY.
Even the best horseplayers have more losing days than winning ones. Don't make a bad day worse by trying to get even.

4.) DISCIPLINE...DISCIPLINE...DISCIPLINE.
Lack of discipline has kept some of the brightest handicappers in this game BROKE...for MANY years. At the end of the day's play ask yourself THIS question:

"Did I do exactly what I planned to do today...or did I let my emotions affect my play?"

If you didn't keep to your gameplan, then the day was a FAILURE...even if you won.

5.) IF YOU TAKE BETTING SERIOUSLY...GAMBLE ALONE.
Tom Ainslie said it best:

"Winning horseplaying is a solitary activity; the more social it gets, the less profitable it becomes."

Pittsburg Phil never bet a dime when he had friends accompany him at the track.

If you consider yourself to be a better player than Tom Ainslie and Pittsburg Phil...then feel free to disregard this advice.

6.) SET A PREDETERMINED LIMIT TO THE AMOUNT YOU ARE WILLING TO LOSE IN ANY ONE RACE...AND STICK TO IT.
Don't get into the habit of "loading up" on the "sure things". The name of the game is limiting your risk. It sounds easy...but it took me 20 years to learn.

7.) KEEP A BETTING DIARY.
Not only to record your plays, but also to write down any thoughts or opinions about your play during the course of the day.

Our memory is not to be trusted.

8.) AVOID TURF PARADISE LIKE THE PLAGUE.
Trust me on this one...:)

Those rules are in need of qualification:

1st) Tends to falter because the powers that be are also aware that you skip races.
2nd) This is true because there are races you know very little about.
3d) True. That's the martingale tactic (M.G. jumped off a cliff in the end)
4th) Discipline is good. In the army also.
5th) Depends on what sort of friends. If they keep yapping about girls, politics, fisherman's tales, discard them. On the other hand a knowledgeable friend is an asset. Also if it is somebody who keeps saying "I 'm the whizz kid in town and everybody oughta listen to me", again discard him.
6th) True.
7th) True.
8th) Maybe.

[cosmicway]

Rule 9 - Chase the overlays. Remember the last time you left the races with real dough in your pocket ? And the one before that ? It was because one of your choice overlays obliged, was n't it ? If they don't come true, they will tomorrow.

[johnhannibalsmith]

... I have suspected in the past that the track may be manipulating the M/L odds to sucker us in...

I'm the last person in the universe to defend Turf Paradise, but in this case, I think I will. The individual that makes the morning line is undoubtedly the sharpest guy to draw a paycheck from that company.

Now, I often disagree with his morning line, but never because I think he is intentionally being manipulative. He is, and always has been, a bit of a "generic" linemaker - which given the often unpredictable nature of the shallow win pools and the reality that it is a responsibility dumped upon his stressful "top priority" (which he does extremely well), I can't say I fault him for the approach even though it contrasts my own.

I'm being a bit obtuse... but frankly, the morning line maker is probably one of the very few employees that has enough dignity to get me up for defending him from suspicion of collusion with the track.

[Overlay]

6.) SET A PREDETERMINED LIMIT TO THE AMOUNT YOU ARE WILLING TO LOSE IN ANY ONE RACE...AND STICK TO IT.
Don't get into the habit of "loading up" on the "sure things". The name of the game is limiting your risk. It sounds easy...but it took me 20 years to learn.
I think that a corollary or paraphrasing of that would be, "Bet a little for a chance to win a lot, rather than betting a lot for a chance to win a little."

[cosmicway]

I think that a corollary or paraphrasing of that would be, "Bet a little for a chance to win a lot, rather than betting a lot for a chance to win a little."

Some will dispute.
There are some races I 'd like to back with more money myself, than I actually do, if I could afford.
But it's the question of "deployment of forces" that comes into play I should think.
If it's a last stand everyday, one day the Persians will win at Thermopylae even though their army is no good.

[jerry-g]

I'm the last person in the universe to defend Turf Paradise, but in this case, I think I will. The individual that makes the morning line is undoubtedly the sharpest guy to draw a paycheck from that company.

Now, I often disagree with his morning line, but never because I think he is intentionally being manipulative. He is, and always has been, a bit of a "generic" linemaker - which given the often unpredictable nature of the shallow win pools and the reality that it is a responsibility dumped upon his stressful "top priority" (which he does extremely well), I can't say I fault him for the approach even though it contrasts my own.

I'm being a bit obtuse... but frankly, the morning line maker is probably one of the very few employees that has enough dignity to get me up for defending him from suspicion of collusion with the track.

Thanks for clearing that up for me. I spoke out of my hat and should be more careful. It is my belief that the M/L guy actually does not handicap the race but rather only sets the odds based on how he thinks the public will respond. They do a pretty good job at that. There is a lot of people in a race, not just the owners with their $180,000 a year feed bills.

[proximity]

9.) PLAY THROUGH REBATE SHOPS.

try and only play where you get the best deal on each bet or track.

[Greyfox]

Thaskalos rules are excellent, for most of us, most of the time..
:ThmbUp:
For every one of them, the "Polar Opposite" can probably be applied.
Sometimes you have to do that (with the emphasis on sometimes.)

[CincyHorseplayer]

Good stuff Thask.

I have one I'm instilling this year and wanted your opinion.

Greater % of bankroll disparity between bets.

I have always been 1%-2%.I think the % points have to be spread out to reflect the strength of opinion more.I know I have underachieved on some horses I loved and played too many marginal horses in the 1% range that blurred the distinction.This year I am betting half of a % to 1% or 2.5 to 3%.The middle ground of 1.5 to 2% going to horses who have some sort of conflict,for me it'll be a layoff horse of any kind,a horse with a form problem but juicy odds etc etc.

By looking at the bet I will know in a glance exactly what that horse entailed.I truly think that muddled distinction,for me,has caused me to simultaneously overbet(number of races) and underachieve(low % bets).

[turninforhome10]

My very first and formeost rule
Successful handicappers know every detail in regard to the horses upon which they are intending to place their money. Period
Pittshburgh Phill

[Dave Schwartz]

My very first and formeost rule
Successful handicappers know every detail in regard to the horses upon which they are intending to place their money. Period
Pittshburgh Phill


I do not see how that is possible.

[windoor]

Leaves me out too.

I don't even know the horses name. Just a track, race number, and horse number.

I record this information in my log book for record keeping, along with what spot play picked it. Fill in the results when available and move to the next day.

Regards,

Windoor

[mishka]

These are some betting/discipline rules that I enforce in my own play.

2.) BECOME A SPECIALIST.
The best thing about full-card simulcasting is that we can bet on our favorite types of races...and still get all the action we can handle.


7.) KEEP A BETTING DIARY.
Not only to record your plays, but also to write down any thoughts or opinions about your play during the course of the day.

Our memory is not to be trusted.



Great list. Will make list sticky note and put it on my monitor.

On point number two, personally for me I would elaborate and say something like "Become a specialist on a race type or a betting type". For example, I am horrid at exactas, trifectas, and superfectas. But I am decent at picking winners and decent as a result with daily doubles and some decent success with pick3's.

As for records, for me, the addition would be to keep accountant-like good records. When I started I kept records, but they were on paper and utterly confused and inconsistent. I had to give up, and simply filed it alway. I learned nothing about my weaknesses and strengths.

I went to Excel and a more organized data set which evolves as my game evolves. And with every race I added comments on the race, bets, etc. What a huge difference those comments made. What a huge difference just a consistent set of data made.

Next step is to use Excel's capabilities to sort and collate the information, and quickly link to the result and pps pdfs.

[Robert Goren]

I have serious doubts that most players can play a lot of tracks at the same time no matter how selective they are in the races they play. I have always done my best when sticking to one track. The one exception to the rule is the opening two weeks of a track where with a little work you can find which shippers from where do well. During the spring when a bunch of northern tracks are opening after being closed for the winter is a very profitable time for me. The recent opening of Tampa proved to be very profitable as I bet some of the shippers from Churchill Downs.

[Capper Al]

I have serious doubts that most players can play a lot of tracks at the same time no matter how selective they are in the races they play. I have always done my best when sticking to one track. The one exception to the rule is the opening two weeks of a track where with a little work you can find which shippers from where do well. During the spring when a bunch of northern tracks are opening after being closed for the winter is a very profitable time for me. The recent opening of Tampa proved to be very profitable as I bet some of the shippers from Churchill Downs.

I have trouble with multi-track betting if their post times are too close. I like to watch the tote-board for my selections. There's nothing like watching your 40 to 1 shot drop to 30 to 1 for a minute or two. It gives me a good feeling about the bet that I am about to make.

[windoor]

As I preach the need for discipline all the time, I'll put that at the top of the list.

Just one erroneous play a day can ruin a months profit. Do the math. 30 x wager amount.

It usually happens when things are going well and you feel like your at the top of your game and start making stupid wagers. You tell yourself it's ok, I'm way ahead. A dangerous place to be. Yes I have been there. Many times.

I download the days cards everyday.
Modify them so my "spot" plays are searchable within the program.

Run them through the program and get a text report as to which horses qualify and what play picked them. I have this down to about one hour to complete the process. I think much more can be automated, but one step at a time.

As most of my plays have some pretty tight rules, finding them across all playable tracks would be near impossible with a pen and paper method.

As I don't look at the odds (yes I said it) I can wager early and call it a day.
Sometimes I don't even look at the results for days at a time.

It is all quite boring at times and I do miss the excitement at the track.
Maybe when I retire ( I still work a day job) I can return to the track and enjoy it again.

Regards,

Windoor

[Aerocraft67]

I think that a corollary or paraphrasing of that would be, "Bet a little for a chance to win a lot, rather than betting a lot for a chance to win a little."

This is literally a primary theme in "Handicapping for Dummies." It's also my latest heed-the-basics revelation. Particularly important for the casual player with modest bankroll.

[aaron]

I have serious doubts that most players can play a lot of tracks at the same time no matter how selective they are in the races they play. I have always done my best when sticking to one track. The one exception to the rule is the opening two weeks of a track where with a little work you can find which shippers from where do well. During the spring when a bunch of northern tracks are opening after being closed for the winter is a very profitable time for me. The recent opening of Tampa proved to be very profitable as I bet some of the shippers from Churchill Downs.
I agree. I find it difficult to concentrate on more than one circuit. If a person can become an expert on a circuit and play the card of his/her favorite circuit,I feel they can become a winning player.
Many players can play multiple circuits and be successful,I'm not one of them. I play one circuit and sometimes bet a race at another circuit.

[classhandicapper]

I'm not sure this is so much a rule as it is an insight.

If you look at a race and find yourself asking how some favorite could possibly be going off at such low odds, there's a chance you don't know something that other handicappers do or that you are working with inaccurate figures or information.

The best bad favorites are the ones you fully understand and disagree with because of a flaw that is not so apparent.

The same works in reverse.

If you like a horse and he's going off way higher than you thought, there's a chance you are missing something.

The best overlays are the ones you knew beforehand would go off at fairly long odds because you know you understand something the public does not.

People tend to think their own information and understanding is perfect, complete, and accurate all the time, but we all miss some things and misunderstand things. I see it all the time when high profile handicappers discuss their picks in print or on TV. And on the flip side, they sometimes notice things I missed.

[Capper Al]

I'm not sure this is so much a rule as it is an insight.

If you look at a race and find yourself asking how some favorite could possibly be going off at such low odds, there's a chance you don't know something that other handicappers do or that you are working with inaccurate figures or information.

The best bad favorites are the ones you fully understand and disagree with because of a flaw that is not so apparent.

The same works in reverse.

If you like a horse and he's going off way higher than you thought, there's a chance you are missing something.

The best overlays are the ones you knew beforehand would go off at fairly long odds because you know you understand something the public does not.

People tend to think their own information and understanding is perfect, complete, and accurate all the time, but we all miss some things and misunderstand things. I see it all the time when high profile handicappers discuss their picks in print or on TV. And on the flip side, they sometimes notice things I missed.

Your favorite angle(if we can call it that) is more intensified if the horse opens as a big favorite. This scares me if I haven't figured it in any way as a contender.