Just Venting

[cosmo96]

I am starting this thread, because, I just want to vent. November and December have not been kind to me. I usually win, break even, or don't lose too much. But, during the last two monthes I couldn't win a one horse race. Slumps are part of the game, but this is ridicules. I go by the basics, that is, speed,pace, and class. I don't do anything crazy, just good solid stuff that I've had success with. I use good money management, but I still lose race after race.

I've tried using different software. I've done the Sheets. I've used selection services. I've used all the major handicapping services, but still lose. I lose longshots my a nose. I play different tracks all over North America. I played chalk. I bet a long shot and chalk in exactas. The long shot wins and the chalk doesn't hit the board. Everything that you can think of has gone wrong. I always had a good ROI that allowed me to go to Florida and Gulfstrem during the Winter monthes, but not this year.

I love the game. Most of all I like winnig, but there are other perks. I love live racing. I love the companionship of other racetrackers. I love the atmosphere of the tracks, or off track betting facilities. I make road trips to to as many tracks as possible. Until now life at the track has been good.

I'm not looking for advise. I don't think ther is any to give. I am going to take a break and not play until February. This makes me sad because I love racing and all that goes with it. But, I can't afford this never ending slump.

[andymays]

You need something to change your luck. I'm sure there are quite a few here with different remedies. I have a few.

Before you bet next time go by a new pair of socks and put them on along with some baby powder in your shoes. It works for me sometimes. Happy feet help. :)

[JustRalph]

with the state of the game, I expect to hear more of this.

The way the races are coming up anymore, 4 horses within a length of each other, others racing when they shouldn't and the ever present super trainer have just about made the game unplayable.

prices seem way depressed to me. At least where I play. Very much losing interest. If I have to wade through 30-40 races a day to find 3-4 that are worth playing, or fun to play, which is a whole different thing btw, I find myself walking away much more often.

[fast4522]

cosmo96, the Sport Of Kings was not coined that because it was easy to beat.

Switch things up just a bit, if you bet from home do it in a different room preferably a light colored room. Instead of playing every week, play every other week. Sometimes we tweak our selves out instead of setting ourselves for the good. The game has some psychological pitfalls that we sometimes play into instead of avoid.

[Some_One]

What do your records/db say what tracks you are having troubles with or were doing good on? And of course if you don't keep some sort of record/db, then I have a suggestion for a New Year resolution for you.

[Tom]

prices seem way depressed to me. At least where I play. Very much losing interest. If I have to wade through 30-40 races a day to find 3-4 that are worth playing, or fun to play, which is a whole different thing btw, I find myself walking away much more often.

I find myself not even bothering to look at the 30-40 races to begin with.

[Beachbabe]

Cosmo, I feel your pain. This year has been the ultimate pits for me. Every year I have 4 or 5 IRS W-2's to file. This year....nada !!

:(

[Casino]

I am starting this thread, because, I just want to vent. November and December have not been kind to me. I usually win, break even, or don't lose too much. But, during the last two monthes I couldn't win a one horse race. Slumps are part of the game, but this is ridicules. I go by the basics, that is, speed,pace, and class. I don't do anything crazy, just good solid stuff that I've had success with. I use good money management, but I still lose race after race.

I've tried using different software. I've done the Sheets. I've used selection services. I've used all the major handicapping services, but still lose. I lose longshots my a nose. I play different tracks all over North America. I played chalk. I bet a long shot and chalk in exactas. The long shot wins and the chalk doesn't hit the board. Everything that you can think of has gone wrong. I always had a good ROI that allowed me to go to Florida and Gulfstrem during the Winter monthes, but not this year.

I love the game. Most of all I like winnig, but there are other perks. I love live racing. I love the companionship of other racetrackers. I love the atmosphere of the tracks, or off track betting facilities. I make road trips to to as many tracks as possible. Until now life at the track has been good.

I'm not looking for advise. I don't think ther is any to give. I am going to take a break and not play until February. This makes me sad because I love racing and all that goes with it. But, I can't afford this never ending slump.

Bet less races.

[Some_One]

Bet less races.

Actually I disagree, if you have something that is profitable EV, then you want to bet as many races as possible.

If you have something that isn't profitable in the long run, yes you should play less races and hope to ride variance, but why would you follow a losing way?

[maddog42]

What do your records/db say what tracks you are having troubles with or were doing good on? And of course if you don't keep some sort of record/db, then I have a suggestion for a New Year resolution for you.

Tighten up. This also goes for Poker Players. Play premium hands and ONLY the races/tracks that show positive ROI. If you don't keep records then you don't know which are sucker bets and which aren't.

[maddog42]

I am a weekend/nightime player. End of November and beginning of
December I lost 6 days in a row. Felt depressed and started wondering why I couldn't win. I went back to some tried and true methods of handicapping that had worked for me in the past. That worked. I won 4 days in a row to end the year, and took off today to spend with my Grandson Coby. Things will get better.

Back in 91 I rode on the Bus with Tom Brohamer at a Sartin Seminar. He remarked that he wasn't doing so well either. If a guy like that can have a slump, guys like me and you should expect them too.

Good Luck and Happy New Year!


P.S. When you aren't winning you need to SLOW DOWN and step back. A day or 2 off will often help.

[proximity]

Tighten up. .

december and particularly november can be tough months with a lot of meets ending, some breaks, and new meets beginning. a lot of circuit and trainer switches go with this. some tracks change dramatically too when they winterize the surface so take this good advice from maddog42 and tighten up.

[CincyHorseplayer]

November and December have been tough on me too.But I stopped a bad losing streak over the last 2 weeks.I was losing and worse losing my cool,which I don't very often at all.My solution was to downsize bets,pass more races,or not bet at all if the surrounding circumstances weren't ideal(tired,not fully prepped,short fused,overworked).

It works and my positive frame of mind has come back.The expectations and freshness has to be there.I had a runaround,sporadic day today but I am back to finding winners and decent prices.

[Shelby]

Cosmo, I feel your pain. This year has been the ultimate pits for me. Every year I have 4 or 5 IRS W-2's to file. This year....nada !!

:(

I've never had that many, but I've had at least enough to break even....not so much this year.

I'm glad I have an understanding husband.

[BIG49010]

I thought Gulfstream starting in December would be great, it has been very tough, with impossible longshots or super chalks. I am hoping it will change as we move into January, if not I don't know where I'll move my tack. It seems the same goes for Tampa, I watch it quite a bit, but don't play it as a rule.

[Tom]

Tampa is not at all like it used to be - the racing has taken a nose-dive into the muck.


I'm just glad The Big M is coming back soon - enough with the T breds - the game is too diluted to bother with anymore. Like Ralph says, you do 50 races and find three to bet, then two of them drop after the races starts. I'll spend the winter wit the jugheads.

[thaskalos]

I never thought I would say this, but I think it's about time we look for another game to play.

The 7-horse fields -- reduced to 6, or even 5, with the obligatory late scratch(es) -- have ruined my appetite for this game as well.

No-limit holdem anyone? :)

[Some_One]

Tighten up. This also goes for Poker Players. Play premium hands and ONLY the races/tracks that show positive ROI. If you don't keep records then you don't know which are sucker bets and which aren't.

Oh, when you put it that way, I totally agree. Using the study function in HSH, I saw I was getting killed in MSW races and at CT, Haw & Mnr, so I'm not touching those with a 10 foot pole now.

[jerry-g]

It's a fools game. It always has been and will continue. The best we can hope for is that we make a bigger profit than all the other fools in this game. I play for amusement purposes only. Sure, I would like that big hit like anyone. I know it don't come easy. I limit my loses to $25 per month. If I blow it, I wait till the next month then add $25 again. Currently I have enough to play till mid Summer. I love the game and I think the horses are fantastically beautiful. Even if I knock myself out in any given month, I can still play on paper and improve my game. Even watch the races doing so. If I did not have this on line game, I could blow $25 on popcorn and cola at a movie once a month. I like handicapping races better.

[jk3521]

I find myself not even bothering to look at the 30-40 races to begin with.
Oh My God!!, I thought I was the only one!

[phattty]

after an exasperating fall i was looking forward to my home track Tampa....
betting enthusiastically with the proverbial both hands....after 1st 4 days i was drowning in dead tickets,,,,something had to be done as i find wagering entertaining and Tampa been sorta a small winning proposition over the years...over the next 3 days i did alittle research and came up with a scenario that seemed to like it would be fun and keep my feeble brain occupied and don't you knowits been profitable at this time

1st thing i look at is,,,,brisnet speed pars for the race

how many have shown that number or greater in last ten lines..its remarkable how many races have none at all....this is my definition of CHAOS..

when chaos is shown.....its angle time....play multiple horses at boxcars

sit back and be the only guy in your crowd when one of these beasts come home at over 30-1

even if you miss all day, its not very expensive

and you still can play your prime wagers on a more select set of races

[BlueShoe]

I am going to take a break and not play until February. This makes me sad because I love racing and all that goes with it.
How timely this thread is, my sentiments are very close to that of the OP. My intention is to take a long break and stay away from racing until Groundhog Day. Friday was my last day for awhile, and was typical; short prices on almost everything I really liked, and then another infuriating string of one second after another. My track buddies scoffed at my intention to stay away for five weeks, with see you next week comments, but we shall see. Do have a research project that will keep me occupied for awhile. Have a stack of old Forms about three feet high going back to May, have saved them. Am going to examine every horse I bet, with the most scrutiny focused on the losers. Why did this horse lose but not that one will be the focus. What rule did I break that put me on this loser, and so on is the project.

At one time was a better than average poker player, and my interest in the game has been somewhat revived. Problem is twofold; been away from the game a long time, and my game was not Hold'em, it was 7 stud, which is rarely played these days. Have to wonder if, at my age, I could learn a new game well enough to compete in the cut throat world of casino poker. Have purchased and am reading the book widely considered to be the best for beginners at low limit Hold'em. Not quite ready to jump into poker or to return to serious blackjack, first love is still racing, but at times it sure gets discouraging, and in recent years those times are coming more often.

[Tom]

How timely this thread is, my sentiments are very close to that of the OP. My intention is to take a long break and stay away from racing until Groundhog Day.

You go out onto the track apron on GHD and if you see your shadow, you have 6 more weeks of chalk and losing photos.

[melman]

Hey Tom, first happy New Year with lots of longshot winners. You mentioned wintertme jugheads :lol: well in addition to the BigM starting up soon I offer up to you Dover Downs. I don't know your schedule but Dover for the winter will offer racing Sunday thru Thursday. Today Sunday first post is at 5:30 but after that all Sunday racing will start at 1:00. Monday thru Thursday at 4:30. They will offer 15 race cards with full 8 horse fields in each. Plus in five or more with 9 horse fields. (Love the bet the 2nd tier 9 hole with many IMO overlaid prices. They have many solid overnight stock racing each day. I find many races that are bettable. A ok set of drivers with no one just dominating all others. Plus they are "Pena Free". Meet goes until the first week in April. Wanted to add they also offer free video of there races at there web site.

[PhantomOnTour]

Every year I take time off from the grind of regular play.

After BrCup I begin to dial it down until my season ends on Thanksgiving weekend. Rarely do I ever make a bet in December. Went to FG with my father the day after Xmas and that was the only betting I did all month.
Don't know about others, but I need the time off for two reasons:

1) need time to do research, add something to my game, and handicap myself (check out where I'm good and where I'm bad)
2) just gotta get away for a bit...you know it's time when you look at a field and they all look like they can win or they all look like bums...or both.


When I'm stuck in a slump and can't find my way home I like to watch old replays of the Derby or BrCup. It kinda reaffirms why I love the game and keeps my morale up.

[Beachbabe]

You go out onto the track apron on GHD and if you see your shadow, you have 6 more weeks of chalk and losing photos.


LMAO :lol:

[BlueShoe]

You go out onto the track apron on GHD and if you see your shadow, you have 6 more weeks of chalk and losing photos.
There have been times lately when I think that Punxsutawney Phil could come up with more winners than I could. Perhaps on February 2nd I should make a trip back to Pennsylvania and ask Phil what he likes that day?

[Beachbabe]

So what do I do today, since I can't pick a winner ? I figure I'll start a show parlay on race 3 at Gulf. Bet the :7: to show, and of course he wins at 6-1 with the 2 favs coming in second & third, cutting my show price to boot.

When you're going wrong, you're going wrong.
:mad:

[jerry-g]

So what do I do today, since I can't pick a winner ? I figure I'll start a show parlay on race 3 at Gulf. Bet the :7: to show, and of course he wins at 6-1 with the 2 favs coming in second & third, cutting my show price to boot.

When you're going wrong, you're going wrong.
:mad:

Don't you just love it! I was going to key the 8/3-7 for the Tri but when the 8 got bet down from m/l of 8-1 to 8-5 I decided to skip the race. Good I did as that 7 won. I was shocked....shocked to see the 7 so far ahead >4L from all the rest. Where did that dude get all that speed?

[classhandicapper]

I'm just glad The Big M is coming back soon - enough with the T breds - the game is too diluted to bother with anymore. Like Ralph says, you do 50 races and find three to bet, then two of them drop after the races starts. I'll spend the winter wit the jugheads.

Wow, you are going to switch to harness?

I love harness racing also, but I haven't played seriously for decades. I don't think I know anyone that switched back.

[JustRalph]

Wow, you are going to switch to harness?

I love harness racing also, but I haven't played seriously for decades. I don't think I know anyone that switched back.

I don't think it's a switch for Tom. He was a harness player from way back if I recall. I have actually considered it lately. I just can't find any decent size pools. And the data is foreign to me and I am not so sure I want to learn

I would really like to see access to European and Japanese racing, in a form factor i.e. data, that I can import to my software.

back to watching football and ignoring racing...........cheers!

[Tom]

I play harness off and on. Going to be more one this winter. I'm tired of the crap the T Breds dish out every day call it racing.

Thanks for the heads up melman!

[cosmo96]

I am considering harness racing. I don't know enough to handicap it, but I have been succesful with Trackmaster Greg's picks. I am not connected to Greg, nor do I know him, but he makes good picks.

[andymays]

I am considering harness racing. I don't know enough to handicap it, but I have been succesful with Trackmaster Greg's picks. I am not connected to Greg, nor do I know him, but he makes good picks.
It sounds to me like you're picking winners it's just that you're having bad luck. Switching to Harness could be fatal.

Go with the brand new socks and baby powder in your shoes for a week. If nothing improves go to harness.

[melman]

JR-Tom-Cosmo---Poster Ray2000 offers a harness software program for FREE. Not is it just FREE but it is VERY good. His picks based on his program more than speak for themselves.
JR--Your right about pool size. Meadowlands, Woodbine offer pretty good sized pools. Also the web site harnesscharts.com (which is Harness Eye's site) offers VERY good handicappers and very good trip notes FREE.
Tom---Not sure if you know this you most likely do, but Dover also offers FREE trackmasters stats. Covers all posts drivers, trainers. Can get data for past year or past 30 days. I believe BigM does the same.

[Ocala Mike]

I'm tired of the crap the T Breds dish out every day call it racing.



The crap the T Breds dish out is nothing compared to the harness game. The sulkies give the drivers a license to steal; you ain't seen nuthin' yet, so good luck switching your tack to the pacers and trotters.


Ocala Mike

[Tom]

I have been playing. My opinion, it is the better game most of the time. Beats almost any winter tracks up north - make that ALL. Nothing like an Aquadrab merry-go-round race to get the juices flowing! :rolleyes:

melman, I downloaded that program, time to take a look at it. Will check out the Trackmaster stats.

[melman]

Tom--If you have questions about Ray's software program do NOT hesitate to send him a PM. He knows his harness and he knows his computers. Very computer savy. Unlike myself. :lol: Also the BigM will once again offer there FREE survivor game. It starts on Jan 19. They do have some nice prizes at no cost. Free sign up at there web site.

[Tom]

I prefer night racing - so the Big M is a natural. I have done good there when I get into "play" mode and not just screwing around. I have off Monday, so I'll get up to speed with the program.

[thespaah]

As far as I am concerned Once the Breeders Cup is over and the weather turns cold along with winterized tracks in the north and east, this is what I call "horse racing nuclear winter"....I stay away.
Yeah, the meets at Tampa and Gulfstream open....They are betable.But I just take off for the winter.
I return to wagering once NYRA goes back to the main track at AQU and the weather warms up.
It is what it is.
Trying to handicap cheap claimers and 4 year old and up maiden claimers is not what I call fun.

[baconswitchfarm]

I bet harness for a living. If you are sick of short payoffs and super trainers, coming to harness won't fix your problems.

[proximity]

At one time was a better than average poker player, and my interest in the game has been somewhat revived. Problem is twofold; been away from the game a long time, and my game was not Hold'em, it was 7 stud, which is rarely played these days. Have to wonder if, at my age, I could learn a new game well enough to compete in the cut throat world of casino poker. Have purchased and am reading the book widely considered to be the best for beginners at low limit Hold'em. .

for casino no-limit i'd probably recommend some training software over any books. personally i'd rather play limit, but my home racino of penn national is almost all 1-2 nl.

[windoor]

It is a high risk business, make no mistake about that, but if you treat it like a business, you have a much better chance of staying profitable over the long term than the next guy.

See what a turnkey business that produces in excess of 100K per year has for a start up costs. See how much hard work is needed to keep said business from going bankrupt year in and year out.

Horse racing is not that much different is this respect.

Surviving the losing streak is of paramount importance when they come along. Most of you make it much worst than it needs to be. We all hate to lose, but over betting the bank is not the way to recover.

First thing to do is look back at your records, (you do keep records, don't you) and only play what and where you are profitable. Only invest in new plays when you have thoroughly researched them, and have the proper supporting bank,

No one ever said it was easy, but it can be done if you want to work at it.


Regards,

Windoor

[windoor]

Case in point:

I just finished up with a nice little spot play. When I ran it against the 2011 database it returned nearly $70,000 for the year. All quarters were profitable, no long run outs and a very consistent 33% win and 50% place for every quarter, give or take a couple of points.

As the place wager was also profitable for all quarters, ( a rare find) I recommended a supporting bank of $12,000 for both wagers. More than enough, considering the consistent hit rate, but never forget, all is at risk.

I can not take full credit for it as it also uses another key factor not of my making. I did share it with that person as a result, and I hopes he takes the time to explore the possibilities. Fair is Fair, and I believe in Karma.

Will it do as well in 2012? I have no idea, but the homework was done and verified. I would much rather put 12K here than anything else I can imagine as an investment.


Regards,

Windoor.

[Midnight Cruiser]

you ever heard of a slumpbuster?

[PhantomOnTour]

you ever heard of a slumpbuster?
Don't go there :lol:

[Dave Schwartz]

Windoor,

Your post is like, post of the year - a "how-to" description of what it takes. :ThmbUp:

Be advised, however, that you may well be ignored (because you did not disclose the system that you developed and tuned) or call a liar (because you did not add proof that you actually did this).

The point is that you provided the "what needs to be done." I hope people see the value in that.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[pondman]

I just finished up with a nice little spot play. When I ran it against the 2011 database it returned nearly $70,000 for the year. All quarters were profitable, no long run outs and a very consistent 33% win and 50% place for every quarter, give or take a couple of points.

Although I play the millionaire/billionaire end of racing and stay on the nose, I believe your thought process is very similiar to my own. There are too many golden eggs out there. If you wait for them...

What happens when you limit your play to +5-1?

Try to understand:

The more gifts you give out on pace advantage to others, the more those others will pooh-pooh on you.

[pondman]

I lose longshots my a nose. I play different tracks all over North America. I played chalk. I bet a long shot and chalk in exactas. The long shot wins and the chalk doesn't hit the board.


You might want to meditate for awhile on the thought of combing the PP for only the grand slams (+5-1) and considering the strikeout rates of the home run hitters. I personally am able to live with this-- betting larger, but far less. I believe it's part of a successfull betting method. Won't be able to convince you until you actually look at your own results.

[Dahoss9698]

Try to understand:

The more gifts you give out on pace advantage to others, the more those others will pooh-pooh on you.

I don't think this is the case at all. But it's very easy to talk a big game on the internet. I don't see anything wrong with expecting the big talkers to actually provide some kind of substance behind their claims.

It's very easy to talk about how good you are and give advice to people. But it's unrealistic to assume everyone who says they are winners actually are. The only way you can really know is by seeing some of it in action IMO. Talking, without providing any kind of back up does nothing but give people false hope.

[pondman]

I don't think this is the case at all. But it's very easy to talk a big game on the internet. I don't see anything wrong with expecting the big talkers to actually provide some kind of substance behind their claims.
.

If you'd actually read my interactions on this sight, you'd realize I speak with a mountain of data, absolutely nothing without data is typed by me. I bring golden gifts... You don't see me whining about having long losing streaks because I don't have them. That's because I know when to sit. And I know when to slam one out.

[JustRalph]

you ever heard of a slumpbuster?

We have been down that road in other threads.........classless.

[Dahoss9698]

If you'd actually read my interactions on this sight, you'd realize I speak with a mountain of data, absolutely nothing without data is typed by me. I bring golden gifts... You don't see me whining about having long losing streaks because I don't have them. That's because I know when to sit. And I know when to slam one out.

Pretty humble also.

I haven't actually followed your posts that closely, but upon a quick perusal it appears you like to talk a great deal about how successful you are. Good for you, there is certainly enough money in this game to go around. But, I maintain it's a lot easier to tell everyone how great you are without providing specific examples before the fact. We're all very smart AFTER the race, aren't we?

Any serious player (or even non serious player) has a mountain of data available to them. It doesn't translate to success. No one owes anyone anything, but I also don't think being skeptical is necessarily a bad thing. Especially in a game where being skeptical of situations actually helps you as a player.

[Cardus]

Pretty humble also.

I haven't actually followed your posts that closely, but upon a quick perusal it appears you like to talk a great deal about how successful you are. Good for you, there is certainly enough money in this game to go around. But, I maintain it's a lot easier to tell everyone how great you are without providing specific examples before the fact. We're all very smart AFTER the race, aren't we?

Any serious player (or even non serious player) has a mountain of data available to them. It doesn't translate to success. No one owes anyone anything, but I also don't think being skeptical is necessarily a bad thing. Especially in a game where being skeptical of situations actually helps you as a player.

This is a golden point.

Welcome back.

[windoor]

Windoor,

Your post is like, post of the year - a "how-to" description of what it takes. :ThmbUp:

Be advised, however, that you may well be ignored (because you did not disclose the system that you developed and tuned) or call a liar (because you did not add proof that you actually did this).

The point is that you provided the "what needs to be done." I hope people see the value in that.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

Dave,

Thanks for the kind words. I am well past the age were I need to prove anything. A wonder I survived my youth.

I was only trying to give some advise and maybe something for other members to ponder.

If only one person can improve there game with my ramblings, then that is good enough for me.

Besides, I do like to ramble :)

Regards,

Windoor

[FantasticDan]

Today I stopped into my OTB for a couple planned plays at Finger Lakes. Going back to this thread in late August:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=105901

..where my 12/1 horse was taken down, which cost me a chunk of change. That horse was back today, and I intended to play him again. I also wanted to box a couple TRIs in the 8th and 9th. I had just enough cash with me to do these things and have a little left over.

As often happens, I get distracted by live races at other tracks before I make my planned plays. Wow, this guy really looks like an overlay at Delaware.. PLAY. 40/1 at Monticello when he's 8/1 on the ML? PLAY.

And lose, and lose, and lose.

I completely forget about playing "my horse" at FL. :sleeping:

As for the TRIs, I'm down to only a few bucks and only play straight :8: :1: :7: in the 8th, and :2: :6: :4: in the 9th.

Results:
My unplayed horse wins easily at over 7/1. :mad:
The 8th race TRI is :7: :8: :1a: for $90 :mad:
The 9th race TRI is :6: :2: :4: for $1,850 :mad: :mad: :mad:

Yup, head clearing time. Or, more accurately: :bang: :bang: