Your ROI? [Archive] - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

BillW

12-12-2003, 10:48 PM

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
How so Bill? Just curious. I don't like how they do some things, such as count WP bets together, when its really two separate bets.
Craig,

Simpler than that, mostly omissions but sometimes simple arithmetic errors. ... For instance, my derby wager shows a base value and the runners wagered and a credit, but no debit. Neither the wager nor the winnings show up in the summary. The summary for MNR shows $20 more dollars won than what appears in the credit column and $10 less wagered.

I haven't looked at the ROI and win Pcts. One could argue different ways to calculate those anyway, all being valid.

I've been experimenting a lot and not wagering much lately, so these things really stick out in my data.

Bill

BillW

12-12-2003, 11:36 PM

I was negligent not to mention in my previous post that all the errors that I have found were cosmetic. I never found the actual account balance to be wrong and have no concern over America TAB's management of the account.

Bill

sjk

12-13-2003, 09:13 AM

Lou,

In my case the average payoff on wins is the highest ever this year, but the win pct is down. Although I have not changed the way I make my line, I have made a few changes to my bet selection so it is not unexpected that the win rate is down somewhat.

acorn54

12-14-2003, 03:53 AM

hello everyone
i have been lurking for awhile and this topic is interesting to me as i like to get an idea on the lowdown of the people here and if they make money at the track
personally i have averaged a $50 loss over the last 10 years at otb. i know this because i get an account statement at the end of every year from otb on my telephone account activity.

exacta

12-14-2003, 11:29 AM

as was mentioned, I have a bit of a problem with the "math" done by BRIS ....

and

have found NO MONEY errors with my account ...
bet totals are correct
win payoffs are correct

but the math for the account total excapes me

I found it strange that cj posted a ROI from BRIS that was identical to mine, tho ...

he had, and I cut and paste from his message above

>>>>># of Bets Win % $1 ROI Wagered Payoff Profit/Loss
3104 14.56% +0.09 $85464.00 $93557.20 $+8093.20

mine (with monetary amounts deleted)

# of Bets Win % $1 ROI Wagered Payoff Profit/Loss
401 17.26% +0.09

now, I funded the account, have drawn out nothing
and
I put in 2(units) and have right now 7+(units)
so
I'm "relatively content"

but, this the worst year, both in winning ticket percentage AND dollar amount winnings AND ROI in a long while, but then, too, it is a year where I've bet much more infrequently and fewer trips to the track (and simulcasting)

jackad

12-15-2003, 07:38 AM

From the responses so far (with the exception of Suff who may be in a class by himself), it appears that experienced handicappers may expect a win frequency of from 12-15% and an ROI of from 9-12% on win bets over the long-term.

Anyone doing better, or worse?

Jack

sjk

12-15-2003, 08:17 AM

My answer relates to all bets rather than win bets. In fact, probably 90% of my bets are combinations of exactas. Sorry if I have answered the wrong question. If I were to focus on my win bets only (a much smaller sample), I suspect that my results would be less positive.

Niko

12-15-2003, 07:54 PM

My win ROI is almost exactly 10% on 351 bets this year. Pick 3's are higher (more selective, bigger hits) and I lost on exactas. Overall single digit returns which I'm actually happy with considering how hard a game this is to beat.
I had my worst year last year and lost money. The 2 years before that were single digit returns also. A lot of my returns overall depend on big exacta, trifecta and pick 3 hits. I bet each category because each one has been responsible (except for win bets) for my wins that particular year, can't get that one straightened out.

I'm surprised there aren't more big bettors that have responded here. Maybe there'll all like me trying to get by with a mortgage payment and family. I calculated and most bettors who have responded are about the $20 range (if I've read right)

Que

12-17-2003, 12:01 AM

This was a very unusual year for me, which was the result of limited plays and a few rather large Trifecta's. Unfortunately, I wasn't able to play as much as I like, since a 1PM post time at Aqueduct is equal to 1 AM local time. Anyway, I pulled up all my You Bet records with some enlightening results:

Win Bets: +6.7% ROI (21.3% wins)
Place Bets: n/a
Show Bets: n/a
Exacta's: +27.5% ROI
Pick Three's: +27.7% ROI
Trifecta's: +316% ROI
Derby Futures: -100% ROI
Overall: +55.8% ROI

Note: Before I get labeled as a liar, I want to reiterate that this was an unusually high ROI, for the above mentioned reasons. Since I hope to play much more next year, I don't expect to come even close to that ROI. I've also come to realize, that the key to increasing your total return (the only figure that really means anything) is not by improving your ROI, but by increasing the turnover of your bets. Specifically, I'd rather have a +5% ROI on 20 bets a day, than a +50% ROI on 1 bet every other day.

Observations: More than half my profits were the result of several large Trifecta's. Also, I didn't realize, that I never played a single place or show bet all year--I'm more proud of that fact than I am of my trifecta hits. Overall, it was a very good year, but I'm not satisfied since I didn't get to play very much--and I don't think last year's results were too statistically relevant.

Goal for 2004: My goal for next year is to play almost every day, making bets before I go to bed, and viewing the results after I wake up. That's not how I'd prefer to play, but it's a necessity because of the time differential . However, not knowing the odds in advance of placing my bets, could make this plan rather challenging. I also hope I can improve my win betting, which accounts for approx. 75% of my total bets, to an ROI of +10%. The exotics could go either direction, but I think +10% ROI is a realistic goal for those bets too.

Best luck to all in 2004.

Que.

Zaf

12-17-2003, 01:06 AM

Hey Que,

Thats Great !

Are you planning on returning to a better time zone for playing the horses in the near future ? How long have you been in Bangkok ?

ZAFONIC

Que

12-17-2003, 04:10 AM

Zafonic,

Thanks, although I'm sure others had a better year (total return wise) than myself. I've been in Bangkok about 18 months; and I will be here another 2-3 years. Although the move hasn't helped my betting too much, it has improved my handicapping skills--as I have more of time to analyze the races and tinker with my systems and databases; however, I just can't seem to wake myself up early enough to place the bets. My goal now is to systemize the process--as opposed to seat of the pants handicapping and odds watching (which has been my normal way of playing.)

Que.

Dave Schwartz

12-17-2003, 10:26 AM

Que,

Why are you in Bangkok? (Or is that classiffied?) <G>

Dave

JustMissed

12-18-2003, 01:35 PM

Originally posted by cjmilkowski

# of Bets Win % $1 ROI Wagered Payoff Profit/Loss
3104 14.56% +0.09 $85464.00 $93557.20 $+8093.20

That's straight from my BRIS account, January 1st 2002 until yesterday. Will go up after today, had a $32.00 winner at Crc today. And oh yes, and very content.

CJ,

Of all the members I have followed on this board, I believe that you are one of the very few players here who understand the "secret" to beating this great game.

I am not surprised at all with your reported success.

When I showed my son your post he remembered you saying elsewhere that you had been in the military for 17 years. My son noted that if you retired in 3 more years you could play the horses full time, increase your bet size 10 times, and have over $100K coming in each year.

I agreed with him but got to thinking that you would not even have to increase your bet size 10 times to yield 10 times profit because of the leverage afforded the exotics. In other words, if you only play win bets you may be happy with 5/2 average odds and could expect a 10X increase in profit with a 10X increase in bet size, but if you play alot of exactas and trifectas where you can get anywhere from 5/1 to 500/1, if you increase your bet size on those bets, your profits should increase exponentially.

I realize that the more you put in the pot the less the per ticket payoff is but, I believe someone like you would not have to bet $850,000 to yield $85K, but could turnover less money to yield that amount.

I'm not asking that you do so, but I wish for the next month or so, you would recalculate you earnings as if you had bet 10 times the amount you normally bet. I can't say for sure, but I bet you will be very, very surprised at the results.

JustMissed
:)

12-18-2003, 03:01 PM

I am flattered you think so highly of me. For the record, the thread only asked for win bets, so that is what I posted. I play twice as much in the exacta pools with a slightly higher return. I stink at trifectas and don't play them very often. I have hit a few big ones, but have lost money on the bet the last two years.

In all honesty, as far as betting a lot more, I just don't see myself doing that. I love the game, and of course I want to win, but it is hard work and a lot of pressure. Frankly, I can make easier money a lot of other ways. For me to bet $50 or even a $100 on a race is no big deal, but I'm just not cut out for much more than that. Maybe someday, but I just couldn't bring myself to bet more with having a wife and three kids. My kids know I bet and that I usually win in the long run, but I constantly try to remind them it is very, very tough.

Niko

12-18-2003, 11:02 PM

CJ,

I wanted to ask you earlier. How do you manage to bet so many races each year with 3 kids and still maintain such a good ROI? Is it mostly automated? Do you bet 5 days a week? I get about 6-10 win bets a day on weekends with 3-4 tracks but there's no way I could do it everyday or amass the amount of bets you have.

12-18-2003, 11:25 PM

Home betting is the only way I am able to bet so much. I bet nearly evey day at lunch time, 2-3 bets, then catch 3-4 races from SoCal after work. I don't pass many races. As for weekends, I would venture I bet 40-50 races per weekend. I spent a lot of time when I was in Saudi Arabia working on homemade software that has cut my handicapping time by about 95%. I usually only spend about 5 minutes looking at any given race. I've seen A LOT of races in my day. If I look too long, I'm probably not betting the race because I have no insight.

Trysharder

12-19-2003, 12:33 AM

Here I thought I was doing terrible. For the last 6 weeks I have been using a computer method that requires no handicapping or watching the odds. I use the ML to bet along with certain selections. So far, I have made 58 bets, won 16 (27.59%) at an average mutual of $11.41. In case you think this is a fluke I ran a computer check over 1400 races at numerous different tracks and got close to the same results. If it continues I may graduate to larger bets than $2 to $5.

JustMissed

12-19-2003, 11:57 AM

CJ,

Thanks for your candid reply to my post. I know what you are talking about.

You said "For me to bet $50 or even a $100 on a race is no big deal, but I'm just not cut out for much more than that. "

We know that successful play sits on a three legged stool with the legs being handicapping(contender selection), wagering(bet size & type of play) and the psychological aspect dealing with gambling.

When I read the article about Art Canales, a pro at Sunland Park , Art said "the trick is to know the difference between the race you shouldn't be betting and the race race you should be betting seriously more money." He also said "If you are a good professional handicapper and you like a horse out there that's paying a lot, hey, get money out of both pockets and go for it. Don't bet the odds;bet the horses with the right odds."

What Art said is powerful yet simple and is really no different than what a great poker player says about folding or "going all in" or what the blackjack player says about knowing when to double down, split or walk away from the table.

I could be wrong but I believe that most members of this board have enough picking ability to play professionally but are lacking in the betting and mental skills required to make a $100K a year at the track.

Good luck to you,

JustMissed

:)

Niko

12-19-2003, 01:52 PM

I'm amazed people can bet 40-50 races a day and make a profit. Obviously a database is the only way to do it. I just started a very simple one this year and I'm starting to migrate to it and I'm trying to learn not not to use the PP's .
Have you noticed an odds cut-off when your bets aren't profitable, say 3-1 and under? or don't you bet low odds horses. I can't make any money on low odds horses and the 8-1 and 8-1 and up combo's account for almost all my money.
From you posts I assume you use Bris data. How do you get around some of the aberant early pace ratings on off tracks in your program?
Just missed: Some Golden advice from that proffesional at Sunland. If I can adhere to it a little better I know my results will continue to improve.

keilan

12-19-2003, 02:17 PM

JM

Interesting comments about Art Canales, love the comment "Don't bet the odds, bet the horses with the right odds" and "the trick is to know the difference between the race you shouldn't be betting and the race race you should be betting seriously more money."

I have a friend that has played the horses forever, he is a chronic loser and realizes it, but just loves betting the ponies. I have said to him over the years "if your gonna lose then lose with dignity". Meaning wager on value horses.

The game has beat him into financial ruin and he refuses to bet almost anything but a favortie, believe me there's a ton of players like this. I rememder 25 years ago watching him wager $200.00 across on a horse more than a few times each day.

P.S.

Yes I agree cj is easily one of top players on this site.

12-19-2003, 09:30 PM

I'm guessing you are asking me those questions, so I'll give it a shot.

I do not use BRIS data at all, I just use them to bet. I use Formulator files, export them, mix them with my own pars and variants, and create an output that shows the things I want to see in the format I want to see it. It definitely does speed things up for me. I think I mentioned earlier, I don't spend very long on a race. I rank the contenders in my head using my data, then consult the odds board to see if any will be worth a bet.

About the odds, I occasionally bet on low priced horses, if you define 5-2 as low. Not very often, but it happens. At Hollywood this week, I loved a horse in a turf sprint, absolutely towered over the field IMO, and paid 8.80. A horse today at Hol paid 7 and change that I thought was a standout. I don't pass these up. I would say my bread and butter odds range is from 9-2 to 10-1, my best scores always seem to fall in that range. The other thing I do differently than most I know is play very few exacta combinations. I usally play it straight, box two horses, or a 1 over 2 other wheel. Very rarely I may try 1 over 3, but they will be bombs.

Just some things I do, there are more ways than one to skin a cat.

Niko

12-20-2003, 08:17 AM

I think you're right about how you bet the exactas to make money. I used to just key my horse with two others in the exacta which worked overall. Last year I went 4-6 deep to try and catch more of them and tried backwheeling. Cashed more tickets but ended up losing money this way.
From your response, looking recently at how Pizzolla structures his bets and some posts by good betters on this board I think either you know a race or you don't. If you don't you usually won't win unless you go really dip and that gives up your odds advantage.
I'll try to get back to 2-3 horse exactas and see what happens to the ROI this year.
Thanks for your response.

sjk

12-20-2003, 09:07 AM

I take the other point of view. Looking at my records I see that I average 4.5 bets per race, almost all exactas (over 25,000 races bet).

In most races, there is one or more horses I am betting on and one or more that I am betting against. In fact, occasionally I will end up with 15-20 combinations; this amounts to a situation where I am just taking a stand against a favorite, hoping to catch a price.

Trysharder

12-20-2003, 10:04 AM

I envy people who can truly handicap a race and show a profit. I have tried and it seems I have a demon on my shoulder that causes me to always make the wrong decision. My answer is the computer. If I bet exactly what my computer tells me I make a good profit. When I deviate , I lose. For instance, I had three bets picked in one of my methods but all were high odds. I decided against betting because of this. Only one won but it paid $38.20. Last night I had 5 bets and won three at 5.40,15.40 and 8.00. Not complaining about my methods. Just wondering if anyone else has this problem. Friend into psychology told me I had a "poor boy complex" and wanted to lose because I felt I didn't deserve to win.

Niko

12-21-2003, 11:06 PM

trysharder,
A long time ago I had a reputation with my friends for being able to pick the loser(s) of the race if I had multiple contenders. The contending horse I bet on would lose, the other would win. It was almost comical--to them. I got around that two ways. 1) Bet on both horses or all three if odds warranted 2) Bet on any that were going off at odds of 7-1.
The best bets to make are sometimes the hardest psychologically because they don't look as good. You may unconsciously be trying to lose but you might also just be overhandicapping which will cause you to not bet on the longer odds horses. If you spend too much time handicapping logically you'll tend to find reasons that the lower priced horse is the most likely winner, because it looks better.
Try betting on both your contenders or only bet on your longshots.
The best piece of advice. Keep records to find out where you're going wrong.
You'll always miss a few you should have had so don't kick yourself about that.
If you bet on those winners you'd have bet on many more losers also to get those winners.
Hang in there, it's part of learning how to win. Sometimes you have to lose to learn how to win (losing will lead you to eliminate mistakes which allows you to find a way to win). Tell yourself it's ok to win.
There are many approaches you'll find on this board that will allow you to win. You have to find out the hard way which works best for you. Hoped that helps a little.