Goofyscott's Turf Paradise Monday Bookie Killer

[Goofyscott]

Some missed opportunities last time out at TUP so lets kill the books and finish this year strong! Going to give my best shot today here at Turf Paradise. I capped Track Dirt=Fast and Firm Turf. Same as usual for betting. $20 to win 1st and 2nd pick and then if odds are 5-1 or higher on 3rd or 4th pick, play those to win. Will also play boxed $2 exactas, tri's, DD's and super's. Also I love playing the $2 pick 3's, pick 4's and $1 pick 5. Always play at your own risk.

Good luck to all and let's clean them out!!

RACE 1----1-8-4 #1 Lasting Cash, has a Hot Trainer, horse did great at 1st running of route and should sit off the pace and come flying to win

RACE 2----5-2-6 #5 Forest Sunrise, just beat similar group last out and loves this 5F distance

RACE 3----4-7-3 #4 Quick Caper, 10-1 ML and Live Longshot, throw out last race

RACE 4----6-3-4-2 #6 Rogue River Top Form and coming back to race from 6 days ago. I love these kind of horses and public could overlook this one
RACE 5----2-7-3 #2 Stamp of Approval- Best bet of the day at 5-1 ml, Gets Hot Jockey and has won 2 in a row at 8F and 7.5F on turf here.

RACE 6----2-9-3-6

RACE 7----6-4-7--Arizona Juvenile Stakes

RACE 8----6-2-9

RACE 9----10-4-8-1- Lost Fog Juvenile Stakes

[Goofyscott]

Current Track Conditions:
Dirt: Fast
Turf: Good
Scheduled First Post: 12:30 PM MT



Race: 5ChangesTime Posted (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/latechangesByTimeTUP-USA.html)Temp Rail Distance set at 28 ft.2:17 PM ET Race: 7ChangesTime Posted (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/latechangesByTimeTUP-USA.html)#8 Deputy Innovator Scratched - Trainer11:29 AM ET Race: 9ChangesTime Posted (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/latechangesByTimeTUP-USA.html)#6 Don't Be Coy Roy Scratched - Trainer11:29 AM ET #7 The Gov Scratched - Trainer11:29 AM ET

[Goofyscott]

RACE 1----1-8-4 #1 Lasting Cash, has a Hot Trainer, horse did great at 1st running of route and should sit off the pace and come flying to win

#1 had the win and a great push by the #4 wins it. Def gets us a better price though for early pick 4. #4 Wins..$8.00...#1(2nd)...
Exacta--$15.80...Finished 4-1-3-8

[Goofyscott]

RACE 2----5-2-6 #5 Forest Sunrise, just beat similar group last out and loves this 5F distance

#5 and my Top Pick at 3-1 Wins...$8.60..#3 gets in there to kill our exacta...
DD--$39.40....Finished 5-3-6-1

[Futchie]

dude...you got a tie on the exactor!! good daily double and hopefully makes for good pick 3 and 4!!!

[johnhannibalsmith]

RACE 3----4-7-3 #4 Quick Caper, 10-1 ML and Live Longshot, throw out last race


Kinda wish I had gone a little deeper with my own P4 in this race as this race figured to offer some plump prices on legit contenders. With a bunch of pace in here, I had to include :2: Bullittone on the turnback to a sprint - but now that I see he's 21-1 and Supercarls Remedy just hit 1-9... I'm sort of wishing I had considered playing a few tix keying him 1st and 2nd with a handful here... I'm a Supercarl/Houghton fan, but no way he should be getting crushed like he is here.

[Goofyscott]

My bad on this, was multi-tasking between eating some lunch and feeding my kid and of course answering to my wife:lol:

We did get the Exacta--5-6---$23.60

RACE 2----5-2-6 #5 Forest Sunrise, just beat similar group last out and loves this 5F distance

#5 and my Top Pick at 3-1 Wins...$8.60..#3 gets in there to kill our exacta...
DD--$39.40....Finished 5-3-6-1

[Goofyscott]

Sorry,,,way too busy just at that 2nd race time. Thanks and lets crush the books today!!

dude...you got a tie on the exactor!! good daily double and hopefully makes for good pick 3 and 4!!!

[Goofyscott]

RACE 3----4-7-3 #4 Quick Caper, 10-1 ML and Live Longshot, throw out last race

#4 ran decent in the start and their he goes needing a fuel tanker to come by and refuel but none in site and burned. #7 Wins...$5.60...
#3(2nd)....Exacta--$14.80....DD---$37.20...
Pick 3---$82.40

[Futchie]

no need to apologize lol, I answer to my wife even when she's not here!!!

Man the 7 was 9-1 at post time....thats a big crash to 9/5 by the start???!!!

[johnhannibalsmith]

I singled the :10: in the last leg of this pick 4. I had intended to also use your top pick Rogue River, but balked at the ticket cost versus expected return if opening legs ran chalky... I'm not entirely certain why I played this early pick 4 as I really never felt good about this single other than expecting a good return regardless who won the early legs... :D

For what its worth, I love :9: Warrens AllStar as a key in the 8th today... my only other substantial play today - was in all kinds of trouble late on the grass two back, missed by a nose to hot Lang Field while outrunning aforementioned Rogue River and the race is deep enough that there's probably value to be found on this often overlooked, honest camapaigner.

[Banker's Wife]

My bad on this, was multi-tasking between eating some lunch and feeding my kid and of course answering to my wife:lol:

We did get the Exacta--5-6---$23.60


Hey, you sound like a good father and husband!! Tee-hee, now you understand what it is to be a MOM and multi-tasking all the time. Just teasing. You do sound like a devoted father and husband.

Good luck with the rest of the card. Hope your Christmas was a blessed one. ;)

[Goofyscott]

RACE 4----6-3-4-2 #6 Rogue River Top Form and coming back to race from 6 days ago. I love these kind of horses and public could overlook this one

#6 and my Top Pick Wins but at low price. $3.40 Didnt get any exacta or tri or super like I wanted too, but got DD---$13.80...Pick 3---$75.00....Pick 4 was low but did alright $206.40. Hope the prices come in now for us!

[Goofyscott]

It was a toss up but as I stated in my writeup, I love playing horses and singleling them in just that exact spot. Had the exact same situation just a few days ago at TUP also. Always look for those kind.

I singled the :10: in the last leg of this pick 4. I had intended to also use your top pick Rogue River, but balked at the ticket cost versus expected return if opening legs ran chalky... I'm not entirely certain why I played this early pick 4 as I really never felt good about this single other than expecting a good return regardless who won the early legs... :D

For what its worth, I love :9: Warrens AllStar as a key in the 8th today... my only other substantial play today - was in all kinds of trouble late on the grass two back, missed by a nose to hot Lang Field while outrunning aforementioned Rogue River and the race is deep enough that there's probably value to be found on this often overlooked, honest camapaigner.

[Goofyscott]

It was suppose to be a down relaxing day but thought, well should be a good card today and lets hit it and make some money. Thanks for all the kind words.

Hey, you sound like a good father and husband!! Tee-hee, now you understand what it is to be a MOM and multi-tasking all the time. Just teasing. You do sound like a devoted father and husband.

Good luck with the rest of the card. Hope your Christmas was a blessed one. ;)

[Goofyscott]

RACE 5----2-7-3 #2 Stamp of Approval- Best bet of the day at 5-1 ml, Gets Hot Jockey and has won 2 in a row at 8F and 7.5F on turf here.
*Couldnt get the #2 home to win but got our #2nd choice, #7 Wins...$5.60....
DD--$13.40...Pick 3---$70.80

[johnhannibalsmith]

Played a few small late pick 4s and on a couple I singled :5: Yvette's Pride on the merit of a few of his good efforts running farther than a mile back in California. Chased the winner in his last on the turf, his TuP debut, and though he faltered a bit late to finish 3rd, he did actually dig back in a bit to hold that show position from the favorite Tonight at Eleven that day.

When watching that race live, I sort of marked this guy as one to play in his next start. Not exactly the spot I expected to see him in and tough to translate with much precision off that turf race, but still kind of expect him to run an improved race.

As I look now, he's plummeted from 6-1 to 5-2 favorite since I began this essay, so I guess I'm happy I went light on him in pick plays as I expected him to be 3rd or 4th choice at 9-2 to 5-1. No dealing with El Miguel de Silva - can't stand against very confidently with regularity but never get fair value... the more likeable Mucksack variation.

[Goofyscott]

RACE 6----2-9-3-6--#2 and my Top Pick Wins $4.80...DD---$18.80...Pick 3---$47.40

[johnhannibalsmith]

Played a few small late pick 4s and on a couple I singled :5: Yvette's Pride ...

Gets beat a head and should have won easily. Glad I went light. Awful ride, pathetic trip, and fortunate the rider objection wasn't upheld after he ran over the horse he needlessly buried himself behind.

[Goofyscott]

RACE 7----6-4-7--Arizona Juvenile Stakes---#4 Wins...$3.80...we are getting no prices today. DD---$11.00....
Pick 3---$55.00