final eighth

[eddie10]

I would like to get opinions on the final eighth or stretch call to the finish, and the importance of it in your handicapping.I realize that in some distances like the mile some tracks don't record fractions at the stretch call.

[Overlay]

I particularly like to see a horse that was in close contention for the lead (either leading or trailing by a length or less) at both of the last two calls of its latest race, or that had a clear lead at the stretch call but was under pressure from there to the finish, and ended up winning or losing by a neck or less. I'm not especially interested in looking at or calculating individual times for that fraction. I'm more concerned with running position.

I also regard it as a positive sign (but to a somewhat lesser degree) if a horse running in a sprint today also sprinted in its last start, while finishing in the front half of its field, and improving its position from the stretch call to the finish (that is, passing at least two other horses and gaining at least one length on the leader, or else passing at least one other horse and gaining at least two lengths on the leader).

[lamboguy]

I would like to get opinions on the final eighth or stretch call to the finish, and the importance of it in your handicapping.I realize that in some distances like the mile some tracks don't record fractions at the stretch call.
the way to look at it would be that the majority of races that are won 2/3's of the way into the race. find the horse that will be on top at that point and you have a good chance of having the winner.

[thaskalos]

I would like to get opinions on the final eighth or stretch call to the finish, and the importance of it in your handicapping.I realize that in some distances like the mile some tracks don't record fractions at the stretch call.
During my lifelong obsession with pace handicapping, I have done extensive research on the predictive value of individual fractions...and the last fraction has proven to me to be worthless, as far as predicting the future is concerned.

I don't see why the last eight would be any better.

[eddie10]

I really don't have an opinon of the value of the final eighth overall but i will say in my program when i see an 11.4 or 12.0 in a 6 furlong race they have a high percentage of wins. also a 3.4 wich is rare or 4.o in 1&40 mile.

[Ray2000]

In Harness Racing, the individual's final fraction summed with his race time (ex..28-1 + 1:55-3 = 143.8 secs) is a good indicator of best form (sharpness). Times need to be adjusted for DTV, Tracksize etc. and if his first fraction was a "Break Point effort".


I've always wondered if this holds true with the T-Breds.

[Johnny V]

A horse who has never been within a length or so of the lead at the stretch call in his pp's is a big negative for me especially in a sprint race.

[Overlay]

In Harness Racing, the individual's final fraction summed with his race time (ex..28-1 + 1:55-3 = 143.8 secs) is a good indicator of best form (sharpness). Times need to be adjusted for DTV, Tracksize etc. and if his first fraction was a "Break Point effort".


I've always wondered if this holds true with the T-Breds.

I agree about the importance of the final quarter-mile time for standardbreds. (I myself always looked for the trotter or pacer that ran the fastest final quarter-mile in its latest race after setting or overcoming a comparatively fast time for the first half-mile of that race (rather than the final time).) Standardbreds are a heartier breed that don't achieve maximum speed until a certain degree of fatigue has been reached. (That's why they're "scored" prior to a race, and why the final quarter-mile of a standardbred race can be faster than earlier fractions.) Thoroughbreds typically don't run the same way. They start out fast and then slow down throughout the race. Thoroughbreds that gain ground late are not running faster, as such, but are just slowing down less rapidly than their competitors.

[Capper Al]

It's funny from my limited research that I agree with Overlay in post #2 and Thaskalos in post #4. With Overlay's comments, I too am impressed with a good finish as a sign of sharpness. With Thaskalos's comments, my results too have proven the final eight can't be counted on statistically. These are the contradictions that the pure number players won't ever understand until they understand the game somewhat then the stats will make sense. It's like when we went over figuring out the odds in another thread. The school book approach just doesn't get it. If it did the statisticians would be living at the track.

[Overlay]

Standardbreds are a heartier breed that don't achieve maximum speed until a certain degree of fatigue has been reached.
I guess that I should have "hardier" there. (I always get those two confused.)

[Show Me the Wire]

To me the final 1/8 is the second most important call in determining class placement of the horse and its ability in a specific class, regardless of fractional time.

[BlueShoe]

Of more importance in my 'capping is running positions and beaten lengths gained and lost from the stretch call to the finish rather than raw fractional times. Do not usually like runners that lose ground from the stretch call to the finish unless a router cutting back to a sprint after showing early route speed. A runner that blows a big early and loses gets a big black checkmark in my book no matter how good it looks today. That horse that led by 4 at the stretch call and faded to 3rd may do the same thing today at a short price even if it looks like the lone speed. On the positive side, close up and closing is a plus factor. This is the stalker/presser type that keeps the leaders in sight and then is coming on at the end, gaining lengths in the stretch run.

[so.cal.fan]

Interesting thread here.
I'm in the confusing position of having to handicap my crazy circuit with 3 different surfaces of main track. Then we have the three different turf courses.

I have always paid attention to the final fraction on Turf and on Polytrack (Del Mar).
The cushion track at Hollywood is now mostly sand, and the main track at Santa Anita is dirt.

I'll be watching this thread with interest.

[classhandicapper]

I think closing times (including the last 1/8th) can be important in turf and synthetic racing and in rare instances when the pace gets very slow on dirt.

If a horse is actually accelerating late in a race, it's often an indication it could have run a faster final time in a more even or average pace scenario.